山哥的文化廣場
山哥的見聞和人生感悟，與華語世界的朋友們分享
日本才是俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機中最尷尬的國家
歐美與俄羅斯在烏克蘭的角力達到白熱化程度。不少人想到了中國當局的尷尬：俄羅斯烏克蘭都是中國的好朋友，偏袒哪個都不好；歐洲美國也都是中國的主要貿易夥伴，中國也犯不著與他們作對。
其實與中國相比，日本的處境更為難堪。
由於領土和曆史的問題，日本與其兩個亞洲近鄰中國和韓國關係緊張。為了把傲慢進行到底，安倍政權選擇了討好俄羅斯普京當局。在剛剛結束的素挈冬奧會上，日本是西方大國中唯一由政府首腦安倍親自出馬參加開幕式捧場的，並且借機舉行了安倍-普京會談。這個會談就發生在俄烏危機爆發前夕的二月八日。
今天英文《日本時報》的這篇“日本擁抱俄羅斯遭遇烏克蘭危機威脅”很好地展示了日本首鼠兩端的困境。
一方麵日本的盟友美國和歐洲都在大聲譴責俄羅斯和普京，並揚言要進行製裁；另一方麵日本卻不想失去來之不易的日俄友好關係。特別是日本核電站全部關閉後，俄羅斯的石油和天然氣就成為了日本的主要能源供應之一。故此，周二日本貿易大臣宣稱“日俄之間的經濟和資源外交關係沒有改變”。
果真如此，奧巴馬氣勢洶洶的製裁威脅由於日本的抵製就會大打折扣。
日本會不會因為自身利益抵製美國領導的對俄製裁？
很難說。
“六四”以後，在美國和西方的對華經濟製裁中，日本起先也勉強參與了，但它為了自身的經濟利益，在西方陣營中最早恢複與中國的經貿關係。所以如今安倍首相鼓吹對華“價值觀外交”，簡直是對日本奉行見利忘義外交政策的自我嘲諷。
不過如果美國歐洲與俄羅斯矛盾尖銳化，而日本繼續做牆頭草，他這個西方盟國地位就不會不冒犯美國歐洲。
但如果日本為了順服美國而與俄羅斯普京翻臉，那他前麵討好俄羅斯的功夫就算是白費了。
倒是普京這個混世魔王如果想得到中國的關鍵支持或者完全中立，又與日本繼續拉拉扯扯，恐怕中國方麵不會不趁機敲打敲打這頭北極熊了。
Japan’s embrace of Russia under threat with Ukraine crisis
Reuters
- Mar 5, 2014
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine is setting off alarm bells in Tokyo, where officials worry that any push by the nation’s Western allies to impose economic penalties will undermine its drive to improve relations with Moscow.
While U.S. President Barack Obama and other Group of Seven leaders of advanced economies talk of sanctions or other punitive responses, Japanese officials say ties with Moscow remain on track.
There has been no change in the direction of economic and resource diplomacy between Japan and Russia, trade minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Tuesday.
In reality, “they are in a state of shock”, one diplomatic source close to the situation said, referring to Japanese officials. “It is a big pain in the back for the Japanese government.”
Closer ties are being driven by mutual energy interests, as Russia plans to at least double oil and gas flows to Asia in the next 20 years and Japan is forced to import huge volumes of fossil fuel to replace lost energy from its nuclear power industry, shut down after the March 2011 Fukushima disaster.
“If Western countries come together and agree to take action such as imposing economic sanctions, we may be affected,” said a senior executive at a Japanese company involved in the energy sector in Russia.
“We don’t know what will happen at the moment, but I am afraid the energy sector usually gets a lot of attention.”
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made better ties with Moscow a priority since returning to power 15 months ago and has met President Vladimir Putin five times despite the territorial dispute dating from World War II.
By contrast, Abe has not met either of the leaders of neighboring South Korea or China. Tokyo is embroiled in disputes over uninhabited islands and wartime history with both countries.
Russian forces seized Crimea, an isolated Black Sea peninsula with an ethnic Russian majority, without firing a shot following the ousting of the pro-Moscow Viktor Yanukovich as Ukrainian president last month.
All eyes are now on whether Russia makes a military move in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where pro-Moscow demonstrators have marched and raised Russian flags over public buildings in several cities in the last three days.
Following his return to power in December 2012, Abe has traveled extensively, pushing for expanded trade ties and investment for Japan as he attempts to jolt the country’s economy out of more than a decade of stagnant growth.
Russian ties have been a major focus of that diplomatic effort and Abe’s visit to Moscow in April last year was the first by a Japanese prime minister in a decade. He has met Putin more than any other leader, the Foreign Ministry confirmed.
Abe attended the opening ceremony of the Sochi Winter Olympics last month, while Obama, French President Francois Hollande and British Prime Minister David Cameron stayed away. While there, he announced a visit to Japan by Putin in the autumn.
Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida still plans to visit Russia this spring, the government said Monday.
Official comments by Japanese officials have stressed the need to respect territorial integrity, softer language than Tokyo signed up to in a G-7 statement on the Crimean situation Monday. G-7 leaders pulled out of talks on a G-8 summit in Sochi, according to the statement.
“As a G-7 member, we agreed on the statement. Japan is hoping that the situation will improve following the statement,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Tuesday, when asked about differences in the statement and Kishida’s comments on the crisis.
Japan has a lot at stake. An agreement on the islands northeast of Hokkaido seized by Russia with the eviction of 17,000 Japanese would involve a peace treaty, after the two sides failed to formally close the war in 1945, and pave the way for closer energy ties.
A dramatic transformation is underway in Russia’s energy sector, with oil flows being redirected to Asia via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and Putin pushing for more gas sales to reduce Moscow’s reliance on Europe.
Japan now consumes a third of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, and purchased 10 percent of its supplies from Russia’s east, which lies on Japan’s doorstep.
Oil imports from Russia rose almost 45 percent in 2013 and accounted for about 7 percent of supplies to the world’s fourth-biggest crude importer.
With all the country’s nuclear reactors shut down and no timetable for restarts, Tokyo is desperate to diversify and slash costs of energy imports and Japanese companies are involved in Russian projects to export more gas in liquid form.
“A worsening relationship between the U.S. and EU with Russia may damage Japan’s ongoing improved dialogue with its closest neighbor if economic, trade, or banking sanctions follow,” said Tom O’Sullivan, founder of Independent energy consultancy Mathyos Japan.
“This could impact Japan’s gas and oil imports from Russia as well as investments in upstream energy assets at a time when Japan’s energy security is still threatened due to the continued closure of all of its nuclear power plants.”
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