汪翔
隨便想想
人們對蘋果的瘋狂意味著什麽
目前的股市似乎並不是在按照公司內在價值在進行交易。美國的股市也大有消息市的味道，每一天，每一個神經緊張的股民們，都在跟著一個個自己沒譜，也沒法預測的消息在那裏買和賣。頭一天，股市大漲，自己跟著買進股價已經高走不少的熱門股。第二天，股市大跌，自己又“不得不”割肉出貨。第三天，股市再次高漲，自己又得花更多的錢將頭一天賣掉的股票買回來。就是在這種自我折騰之中，大量的真金白銀送給了股票經紀人和交易商。
每一個跡象似乎在證明，美國經濟已經開始了全麵的複蘇。
在中國一再收緊貨幣之後，投資者又開始擔心：中國這個世界的發動機，會不會在這一次次的收緊之後熄火死掉？如果中國經濟停滯不前，那麽，我們這個緊隨其後的美國經濟，是不是也該曇花一現，壽終正寢了？
如果你相信美國經濟在複蘇，那麽，你就應該趁大家恐慌的時候，累積點發展潛力大，估值合理甚至有點低估的股票，而不應該在那裏沒完沒了的當“ DT ”。除非你真的能夠從中獲得樂趣。
從目前的市場反應看， MA ， AAPL ， PCLN ， NFLX 、 CME 都是一些市場熱門的股票， GOOG 則在標準普一再推薦的情況下還是一再低走。而百度則在高歌猛進飛翔之後，被標準普從“賣出”提升到“買進”的級別。
先不談這些市場的寵兒，單就蘋果公司看， $256 美元的股價， 21.7 倍的市盈率，和 2011 年度 $15 美元的每股盈利預期，看來，標準普 $300 美元的目標價估計有點保守。
蘋果的新玩意剛剛出貨，在國際市場還沒有開始賣。可是，就有不少的人在美國零售市場按照市價購買，然後在其本地銷售還可以大賺特賺。這一消息到底意味著什麽呢？
如果經濟真的是按照現有信息所顯示的走向健康向前，那麽，今後幾年之內股市的贏家之中會不會繼續有著蘋果公司的大名呢？
附錄： "Gray-Market" IPads Selling Fast Across Asia
5/5/10 | Dow Jones
HONG KONG (AFP)--Apple Inc. (AAPL) hasn't yet officially launched the iPad in Asia, but that hasn't stopped a booming "gray market" trade in the world's most talked-about high-tech gadget.
The company said Monday that it had sold a million iPads in 28 days, and thousands made it to Asia.
From Singapore to Seoul, Bangkok to Beijing, iPads are on sale--for a substantial mark-up on the U.S. retail price.
In Hong Kong, computer malls are doing brisk business.
"We get them from the U.S.," said Carl Lee, a salesman at a computer shop in Mongkok Computer Centre.
"But if you want one, get one quick--Apple is restricting buyers to only two iPads per credit card in the States and we don't know how much longer we can get them."
The store could get 15 of the basic 16-gigabyte models "within a day," he said, for HK$5,700 Hong Kong (about $733) each.
The same model retails in the U.S. for $499.
Another salesman, Jay at Concept Digital in the same computer mall, offered to get up to 30 of the same model "within half an hour" for about $710 each.
In Low Yat Plaza, one of Kuala Lumpur's centers for cheap electronics and gadgets, every other mobile phone stall had iPads for sale.
"We have the 16GB, 32GB or 64GB version, how many do you want?" asked vendor Caryn Lee. Prices ranged from $750 to $1,100.
"Our shop is quite big so we have been able to bring in several hundred over the last month."
Most sellers said they got their iPads from a few dealers with small retail shops in the U.S., and one said Apple's failure to supply the device outside the country was fueling the unofficial trade.
"It is not illegal to sell the iPad and if Apple doesn't bring them in to Malaysia, we will continue to do so as the demand is very, very high," said phone dealer Low Fun Meng, who sold 70 iPads last week.
Dozens of vendors are selling iPads at stalls in Bangkok's MBK mall for similar prices.
The stallholders aren't the only ones doing the selling. Two Americans in the mall held a duffel bag with four iPads they had brought over from the U.S. in the hope of cashing in on the boom.
"We'll make about 100 bucks a pop, 150 bucks a pop. It defrays the cost of the one I got myself," one of the men said.
"It's a hassle bringing them over. I had to whack out three grand on my credit card to get them."
The other man said, "You know, it's a risk. If you get stopped at customs, you'll have to pay a duty that pretty much takes away your profit."
The iPad is made in China and Taiwan, so the ones on sale in Beijing and Taipei have had a long journey home.
Alan Lee, who owns a small electronics shop in Taipei's Guanghua Digital Plaza, had sold out.
"The iPad is the most popular Apple product ever. We're approached by customers every day asking about the availability," he said.
China's gray market in Apple products developed to satisfy demand for the iPhone, which only officially went on sale in the Asian giant in October--more than two years after its U.S. launch.
At the Buynow electronics store in downtown Beijing, iPads were selling for between $700 and $1,000.
"We started selling them around 10 days ago and have only three left now," said a saleswoman at one booth, adding she had had a stock of less than 100.
She said the iPads came through a distributor in the southern city of Shenzhen, on the border with Hong Kong.
An Apple spokeswoman wouldn't comment on gray market sales, which are fueled by the fact the iPad isn't currently available through official Apple stores outside the U.S.
The level of demand in the U.S. since the iPad's launch April 3 forced Apple to delay the tablet's international release by a month.
"Demand continues to exceed supply and we're working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers," Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs said Monday.
The first non-gray-market iPads were set to be on sale at the end of May in Japan and Australia.
However, the rest of the Asia-Pacific region will have to wait--and Apple won't yet say for how long.
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