中國6月貿易順差創新高 多國警惕

中國6月貿易順差創新高，引發多國警惕

KEITH BRADSHER 2024年7月15日

 

源源不斷的電動車，海量的家用電器，以及看似無窮無盡的玩具、服裝和其他產品的供應。

中國海關總署周五報告稱，中國本已令人驚歎的出口在6月份又有大幅飆升。但隨著中國企業和家庭在支出方麵變得更加謹慎，進口出現萎縮。結果是當月貿易順差超過990億美元，創下新高。

對中國政府來說，不斷擴大的貿易順差是個好消息。遙遠市場的消費者正在購買許多中國家庭不再需要或無力承擔的商品。作為擴大產能的國家戰略的一部分，出口有助於維持中國工廠的運營，並為更多在建工廠提供資金。

但中國不斷增長的貿易順差引發了許多國家的警惕。世界各地的官員都在擔心中國的出口會取代他們自己的產能，迫使工廠關閉，損害經濟增長。最近幾周，歐盟以及美國、巴西、印度、土耳其等國政府紛紛對來自中國的製成品加征關稅，或征收新的關稅。

中國上個月的貿易順差打破了2022年7月創下的紀錄，當時中國的工廠和港口正在競相跟上全球需求，之前上海因新冠肺炎疫情實施嚴格封鎖，導致中國中部大部分地區的生產陷入癱瘓。

數以百萬計的中國民眾正在設法節省開支，以以應對房地產的低迷。公寓和其他房產在中國占家庭儲蓄的60%至80%，按照國際標準，這是一個異常高的比例。因此，房價下跌對消費者支出產生了巨大影響。由於過度建設，三年前開始的房地產危機已經導致數十家開發商出現債務違約。

6月份進口額同比下降2.3%，降至約2090億美元。出口猛增8.6%，達到3080億美元，順差創下曆史新高。

隨著進口減少和出口增加，中國對美國的貿易順差從去年同期的290億美元增至近320億美元。6月，中國對歐盟的貿易順差達到226億美元，而去年同期為191億美元。

中國與一些國家的貿易失衡變得尤其突出：例如，中國對肯尼亞的出口現在是來自肯尼亞進口的40多倍。肯尼亞還欠中國和其他貸款方的巨額債務，最近該國發生致命抗議活動，民眾反對增稅提議，並要求提振經濟。

外交關係委員會高級研究員、曾在奧巴馬和拜登政府任職的布拉德·塞策說，6月份的數字“甚至低估了中國的貿易實力”。因為出口價格一直在下降，是空調、太陽能電池板等產品的實際出口數量以極快的速度增長導致上個月貿易順差大幅增加。

“這清楚地表明，中國繼續試圖依靠出口，尤其是製成業的出口來實現增長，”他補充道。他還表示，這一戰略使中國與一些貿易夥伴的分歧越來越大，引發了人們對“單邊貿易和對中國供應過度依賴”的擔憂。

中國的工廠已經生產了全球近三分之一的製成品。中國最高領導人習近平設定了培養“新質生產力”的國家目標，重點是建設更多裝配了大量機器人和其他自動化設備的工廠。

中共領導層將於周一在北京舉行為期四天的會議，就經濟決策和意識形態進行戰略評估，這個會議通常每五年舉行一次。中國最新的經濟增長數據也將於周一公布，經濟學家預計二季度經濟增長將出現放緩。

從官方數據可以看到，中國強調通過工業擴張來抵消房地產危機：截至今年3月的12個月裏，銀行發放的企業貸款淨額達到6140億美元。這是疫情前的六倍，因為銀行發放給企業的貸款幾乎完全取代了此前發放給房地產行業的貸款。

China Reaches Record Trade Surplus, Raising Alarm Abroad

China's factories have begun an export blitz, prompting worries around the world about the effect on economies elsewhere.

China's monthly trade balance

 

Source: China's General Administration of Customs via CEIC Data By The New York Times

 By Keith Bradsher  Reporting from Beijing July 12, 2024

Vast fleets of electric cars. Huge numbers of household appliances. And a seemingly endless supply of toys, clothing and other products.

China’s already formidable exports surged in June, China’s customs administration reported on Friday. But imports shrank, with Chinese companies and households becoming more cautious about spending money. The result was a record monthly trade surplus of just over $99 billion.

For the Chinese government, the ever-widening trade surplus is good news. Consumers in distant markets are buying many of the goods that Chinese households no longer want or cannot afford. Exports help keep factories open in China, and provide the money for even more factories under construction as part of a national strategy to expand industrial output.

But China’s soaring trade surpluses have prompted alarm in many foreign capitals. Officials around the world worry that exports from China will displace their own industrial output, forcing factories to close and hurting economic growth. In recent weeks, governments in the United States, the European Union, Brazil, India, Turkey and elsewhere have been raising tariffs or imposing new ones on manufactured goods from China.

China’s trade surplus last month broke a record set in July 2022, when the country’s factories and ports were racing to catch up with global demand after a stringent Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai had crippled output throughout much of central China.

Millions of people in China are now looking for ways to save money in response to a real estate downturn. Apartments and other properties represent 60 to 80 percent of household savings in China, an unusually large proportion by international standards. So falling apartment prices have had an outsize effect on consumer spending. A housing crisis that began three years ago because of overbuilding has already led to dozens of developers defaulting on debts.

The value of imports slid 2.3 percent in June from a year earlier, to about $209 billion. Exports jumped 8.6 percent, to $308 billion, generating the record-breaking surplus.

China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to nearly $32 billion last month, up from $29 billion a year earlier, as China exported more and bought less. The surplus with the European Union reached $22.6 billion in June, up from $19.1 billion in the same month last year.

China’s trade has become particularly lopsided with some countries: Its exports to Kenya, for example, are now more than 40 times its imports from that country. Kenya, which also owes heavy debts to China and other lenders, recently experienced deadly protests as crowds rejected proposed tax increases and demanded a stronger economy.

The June report “if anything understates the strength in China’s trade,” said Brad W. Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former official in the Obama and Biden administrations. Because export prices have been falling, the physical volume of exports — the actual number of air-conditioners, solar panels and so forth — has grown with particular speed to produce such a large jump last month in the surplus.

“It is clear evidence that China continues to try to grow on the back of exports, and manufactured exports in particular,” he added. This strategy increasingly puts China at odds with some of its trading partners, raising concerns about “one-sided trade and excessive dependence on Chinese supply,” he said.

Factories in China already make almost a third of the world’s manufactured goods. Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader, has set a national goal of fostering “new quality productive forces,” with an emphasis on building even more factories with lots of robots and other automation.

The Chinese Communist Party’s leadership is set to meet on Monday in Beijing for a four-day strategic review of economic policymaking and ideology that typically takes place every five years. China’s latest economic growth statistics are also due on Monday, with economists expecting a slowdown in the second quarter.

The emphasis on industrial expansion to offset China’s housing crisis is evident in official data: Net new bank loans to industrial borrowers reached $614 billion in the 12 months through March. That was six times the annual lending to those borrowers before the pandemic, as lending to industries has almost exactly replaced the loans that previously went to the real estate sector.

Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He has lived and reported in mainland China through the pandemic.