上一次聊到特斯拉是2020年的8月13號,當時股價是分股前的1700,也就是分股後(1分5)的340,已經是瘋狂到不行,咱們再來看看昨天今天 ,特斯拉寫作當下是878, 真是好刺激和驚險。
最近的股市行情,原因大家也都猜得差不離,那史上難得一遇的國會暴襲事件之後,國會連夜把拜老爺子認證了,川老爺子也表麵認慫免得被秋後算帳,市場終於等過了最大的政治不確定性,於是大盤也猛漲,個別股票長得更加厲害,相比起來,特斯拉還不算是最驚世駭俗的,但是再次貢獻了曆史新高,同時昨天把馬斯克送上了世界首富的寶位。
來看看我在2020年對特斯拉股票的騷操作(再次強調,作為新開Roth IRA的小白,整年隻有1萬2可以折騰),年初聽領導這個特粉訓導,於是我買入五股大概在138(其實是分股前的1股690),八月份在418左右賣掉 (分股一個星期前的2087);後來在橫盤三個月的時候,又波段操作了一下,350買入,450賣掉什麽的, 自己還挺得意,甚至還說服了領導在450左右減倉了三分之一(換成了女股神ARK基金)。
總之就是雖然我在2020年慢慢在領導的帶領上也相信特斯拉會是未來的萬億市值的偉大企業,絕對不是一個簡單的車企,而是有著改變環境抱負的高科技公司,而馬斯克是瘋子一樣的天才,所以波段騷操作之後,一直想等著在自己的假想上車位330左右再次買入,卻一直都沒有上車的機會一直到現在。。。而在昨天特斯拉上了800新高後,我又對領導進行了靈魂拷問(某人依然重倉85%的特斯拉),是不是該減倉獲利離場了。
領導的原話說:不是不出,又沒有房子買,有房子買自然就出了。
昨天特斯拉猛漲的時候,自然預測未來是漲是跌的新聞就會多起來,比如其中一條是關於一位44歲的富豪投資人Chamath Palihapitiya 的意見,CMBC的主持人有著跟我一樣的疑問,特斯拉一年漲了7倍,馬斯克全球最富,你還持有特斯拉股票嗎,現在開始賣了嗎?他的整段發言大家都應該看一下, 挺有意思:
Yes it's really credible. Actually he is somebody I have known for a really long time, I’ve looked up to him for a long time. And here is what I have to say that:
是的,非常了不起的一天,我認識他很久了,也一直很崇拜他,我一直是這麽認為的:
He built the great car company and somewhere along the way — you know about five or six years ago — what I thought he was building was an energy company and that eventually, people would realize that climate change actually mattered. And it’s taken five or six years for everybody to realize the same thing and he's being rewarded. The world's richest person should be somebody that's fixing and fighting climate change. I think the reality is that Tesla's a distributed energy business. They are figuring out how to harness energy, how to store it, and how to use it in a way to allow humans to be productive. Cars are a manifestation, but solar panels are as well. Powerwalls are as well.
我認為他順手就造就了一座偉大的車企,大概五六年前我以為他要成立一家能源公司,因為人們總會意識到全球氣候變暖的嚴重性,過了大概五六年人們才終於意識到同樣的事情,而他也收到了應有的獎勵。世界首富就應該是一個願意去改善世界環境問題的人。而事實上特斯拉就是一家能源公司,他們正在尋找掌控能源的方法,如何存儲,如何利用新能源從而提高人類社會的生產力。電動力如是,太陽能,Powerwall儲能設備也亦然。
I am telling you right now: the big disruption that's coming is to power utilities. There are trillions of dollars, of bonds, of capex, of value sitting inside the energy-generation infrastructure of the world, and that's going to go upside down. And when that goes pear-shaped, Tesla will double and triple again.
我告訴你們,下一個巨大的創新就是給物業設施提供能源的科技。現在的全世界傳統能源行業還包含價值上億美金的投入,以後都會被新能源所顛覆,當那個情況發生的時候,特斯拉的股份還會再翻兩倍,三倍。
I tweeted this a while ago that I thought the world's first trillionaire would be a person fighting climate change, It very well could be Elon. But if it's not him, it'll be somebody like him. It will be because of this: Delivering clean energy, allowing the world to be sustainable, is an incredibly important thing that will be rewarded by markets and individuals.
我之前就發過推特,我一直都認為世界上的第一個億萬富翁就應該是一個致力於改善溫室效應的人,非常有可能是伊隆(馬斯克),或者和他有著同樣夢想的人,但肯定會是這個領域內的為人類可再生能源而奮鬥,也最終會被市場和全球投資者們認可。
I don't understand why people are so focused on selling things that work,", let's just you know, let’s make a number, say I own a billion dollars’ Tesla stock, if I sold it, now I have a billion dollar problem, what would I do with that money, what if it's a hundred million, what if it's just ten thousand, it doesn't matter what the number is. The point is that when things are working, you're paid to stay with people that know what they're doing. And this is a guy who has consistently been one of the most important entrepreneurs in the world. And so why bet against him, It's the same thing with Bezos, why bet against him. You get behind these people who have incredibly strong character, who know what they are doing, who aren’t gonna bend to short-term profit, and would just drive the trend for the next ten or twenty years to make the world a better place, get behind them. You know the best way to summarize: when the music sang, you got to dance and these guys are dancing, they are in rhythm, they are in flow, let them do their thing, you get behind them, don't sell a share. let them create value.
我真的不明白為什麽投資者總是喜歡把好公司的股票賣掉!假設我有價值十億的特斯拉股票,如果我賣掉了股票,那麽我就有一個價值十億的問題了,用這個錢我要來投資什麽別的呢,或者是一百億,或者隻有一萬塊,都是一樣的意思。當情況進展良好的時候,你要堅定地與牛人站在一起,從而獲得獎勵。這個人(馬斯克)是這全世界最偉大的創業者之一,為什麽要跟他唱反調,同理,為什麽要和貝佐斯(亞馬遜創使人)唱反調?你就跟著這些人的腳步,他們極具個性,清楚地知道自己在做什麽,也不會在乎短期利益,就是要為全世界變得更美好而奮鬥,所以跟著他們就行了。用一句話來總結就是,當音樂響起的時候,你就跟著跳舞就好了。這些創業者們就正在跳舞,極具韻律,正踏著節奏,讓他們做他們擅長的事情,你跟著就好,一股都不要賣,讓他們一直創造價值。
一定建議要聽這哥們講這段話,寫下來翻譯過來激情澎湃直降90%。持有特斯拉這樣的股票就是要極具信念吧,能拿得住,回調還能再買,而且你也問自己同樣的問題:賣了之後買什麽呢,再買的股票是更有潛力的成長股呢還是隻是熱門妖風股呢?我家領導最近正在把Roth IRA轉向self-directed IRA,對於我們而言,IRA或者股票帳戶就是用來park money的,能放在特斯拉這裏大賺一筆未嚐不可,放在美股大盤小賺一筆也可以抵抗通脹,但是當我們最擅長的房產機會出現的時候,我們就可以套利離場去買房子去了。