中國未來五年對全球經濟增長的貢獻超過G-7總和
【彭博】-- 彭博使用國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的預測計算得出，未來五年，中國將是全球經濟增長的最大功臣，其份額大於所有七國集團(G-7)的總和。
從今年到2029年，中國將佔全球新增經濟活動的21%左右。相較之下，G-7約占20%，美國則是接近12%。
總體而言，全球75%的經濟增長料將集中在20個國家，其中一半以上集中在前四名：中國、印度、美國和印尼。印度在未來五年內料將貢獻約14%。
盡管美國和中國都是全球經濟增長的重要推動力，但它們的財政政策和債務負擔被視為穩定的長期風險。彭博經濟研究預測，未來幾年，以購買力平價計算，印度可能取代中國，成為全球增長的領頭羊。
China Outweighs G-7 as Leading Driver of Global Economic Growth
, Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share bigger than all Group of Seven countries combined, according to Bloomberg calculations using International Monetary Fund forecasts.
China will account for about 21% of the world’s new economic activity from this year through 2029. That compares with 20% for the G-7, and almost double the nearly 12% for the US.
In total, 75% of global growth is expected to be concentrated in 20 countries, and over half in the top four: China, India, the US and Indonesia. India is expected to contribute about 14% over the next five years, up from almost 13% in the 2023-2028 period.
While the US and China are both big drivers of global growth, their fiscal policy and debt loads are seen as long-term risks to stability. Over the next few years, Bloomberg Economics projects that India could overtake China as the global growth leader on a purchasing power parity basis.
G-7 members Canada and Italy are expected to contribute less than 1% — a smaller amount compared to some much poorer countries such as Bangladesh or Egypt, where population growth is driving much of that activity.
