tninja (K dash)：前麵關於邏輯思維的模式，個人以為是哲學層麵的東西。戈塞特是否有哲學層麵的著述，我沒看到過。其次，回歸這個詞實際上是由高爾頓首先提出（Francis Galton. Presidential address, Section H, Anthropology. (1885) (Galton uses the term "regression" in this paper, which discusses the height of humans.) 之後由皮爾遜和Udny Yule發展的。（Pearson, Karl; Yule, G.U.; Blanchard, Norman; Lee,Alice (1903). "The Law of Ancestral Heredity". Biometrika (Biometrika Trust) 2 (2): 211–236. doi:10.1093/biomet/2.2.211. JSTOR 2331683.） 戈塞特在皮爾遜主辦的biometrika發表t檢驗是在1908年，在相關分析和回歸分析提出之後。這些資料都在wikipedia上。
謊言，該死的謊言，統計數字（英文：Lies, damned lies, and statistics），是一句著名的西方諺語。主要描述數字的說服能力，特別是用來諷刺一些使用統計數字支持、但毫無說服力的分析報告，以及人們傾向於貶低那些不支持其立場的統計結論。
[編輯] 簡介
其名言部分來自19世紀英國首相本傑明·迪斯雷利，此後經美國著名文豪馬克·吐溫之筆，被廣泛傳誦，原句載馬克·吐溫的《我的自傳》：“圖表經常欺騙我，特別是我在整理它們的時候。那些標記有時讓我聯想到本傑明·迪斯雷利說的一句至理名言‘世界上有三種謊言：謊言，該死的謊言，統計數字。’（There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.）”[1]。但其原句並沒有發現在本傑明·迪斯雷利的演說稿或者其他作品中。
The secret language of statistics, so appealing in a fact-minded culture, is employed to sensationalize, inflate, confuse, and oversimplify. Statistical methods and statistical terms are necessary in reporting the mass data of social and economic trends, business conditions, "opinion" polls, the census. But without writers who use the words with honesty and understanding and readers who know what they mean, the result can only be semantic nonsense.
Introduction
A well-wrapped statistic is better than Hitler's "big lie"; it misleads, yet it cannot be pinned on you.
Introduction
Who are those who chucked the questionnaire into the nearest wastebasket?
Chapter 1: The Sample With the Built-in Bias
Even if you can't find a source of demonstrable bias, allow yourself some degree of skepticism about the results as long as there is a possibility of bias somewhere. There always is.
Chapter 1: The Sample With the Built-in Bias
This is the little figure that is not there—on the assumption that you, the lay reader, wouldn't understand it. Or that, where there is an axe to grind, you would.
Chapter 3: The Little Figures That Are Not There
Referring to degree of significance
It is all too reminiscent of an old definition of the lecture method of classroom instruction: a process by which the contents of the textbook of the instructor are transferred to the notebook of the student without passing through the heads of either party.
Chapter 3: The Little Figures That Are Not There
There is terror in numbers. [...] Perhaps we suffer from a trauma induced by grade-school arithmetic.
Chapter 5: The Gee-Whiz Graph
Nothing has been falsified—except the impression that it gives.
Chapter 5: The Gee-Whiz Graph
If you can't prove what you want to prove, demonstrate something else and pretend they are the same thing. In the daze that follows the collision of statistics with the human mind, hardly anyone will notice the difference.
Chapter 7: The Semiattached Figure
The president of the American Statistical Association once called me down for that. Not chicanery much of the time, said he, but incompetence. There may be something in what he says, but I am not certain that one assumption will be less offensive to statisticians than the other.
Chapter 9: How to Statisticulate
What comes full of virtue from the statistician's desk may find itself twisted, exaggerated, oversimplified, and distorted-through-selection by salesman, public-relations expert, journalist, or advertising copywriter. [...] As long as the errors remain one-sided, it is not easy to attribute them to bungling and accident.
Chapter 9: How to Statisticulate
It's all a little like the tale of a roadside merchant who was asked to explain how he could sell rabbit sandwiches so cheap. "Well," he said, "I have to put in some horse meat too. But I mix 'em fifty-fifty: one horse, one rabbit."
Chapter 9: How to Statisticulate
[edit] Quotes about How to Lie with Statistics
There is some irony to the world’s most famous statistics book having been written by a person with no formal training in statistics, but there is also some logic to how this came to be. Huff had a thorough training for excellence in communication, and he had an exceptional commitment to doing things for himself. [...] In the publishing field, this is what one means by pioneering, original work.
J.M. Steele, "Darrell Huff and Fifty Years of How to Lie with Statistics", Statistical Science, 20 (3), 2005, 205–209.
tninja (K dash)：前麵關於邏輯思維的模式，個人以為是哲學層麵的東西。戈塞特是否有哲學層麵的著述，我沒看到過。其次，回歸這個詞實際上是由高爾頓首先提出（Francis Galton. Presidential address, Section H, Anthropology. (1885) (Galton uses the term "regression" in this paper, which discusses the height of humans.) 之後由皮爾遜和Udny Yule發展的。（Pearson, Karl; Yule, G.U.; Blanchard, Norman; Lee,Alice (1903). "The Law of Ancestral Heredity". Biometrika (Biometrika Trust) 2 (2): 211–236. doi:10.1093/biomet/2.2.211. JSTOR 2331683.） 戈塞特在皮爾遜主辦的biometrika發表t檢驗是在1908年，在相關分析和回歸分析提出之後。這些資料都在wikipedia上。
