獅山巡禮
投資雜談
Software stocks have been under pressure—and there may be more selling to come as highflying shares of Palantir finally succumb to gravity.
Megacap software stocks have been dragging on the broader tech sector—I previously flagged this potential shift, highlighting growing weakness in Microsoft, Oracle, and CrowdStrike—and the risk of a deeper selloff is rising.
A look at the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector exchange-traded fund shows a notable technical breakdown. On Tuesday, the ETF, which fell 1.6% to $106.58, undercut its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since February 21. That last breach kicked off a multiweek decline, with the Expanded Tech-Software ETF falling for six of the next seven weeks, ultimately shedding 9.5% by the week ending April 4, before staging a significant rebound.
Now, as the ETF again loses its grip on key moving average support, it feels technically heavy, and the risk of a “waterfall”-style decline—a sharp, accelerated drawdown—can’t be ruled out. Until the chart improves and buyers regain control, playing defense in the software space makes sense.
Palantir, the largest holding in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, had been one of the few names keeping the fund afloat. But that leadership may now be fading.
On Tuesday, the stock, which fell 9.4% to $157.75, filled a gap from the Aug. 4 session, the day before its strong post-earnings reaction, which sent shares up 8%. Since then the stock has pulled back sharply, now trading 16% below its 52-week high, which was set just last week.
A test of the 50-day simple moving average, currently hovering just above the round $150 level, appears likely. Often the first retest after a breakout offers a compelling entry point. The breakout occurred on April 15, when Palantir cleared a double bottom pivot at $98.27.
However, notice the last 50-day test in late February failed to hold, leading to further downside. If current selling pressure persists, a more logical destination could be near $140.Intuit, a recent pillar of strength in the software sector with Palantir, is also showing clear signs of technical stress. The stock, which fell 2.3% to $701.03 on Tuesday, has fallen in nine of the last 14 sessions, and as the fifth-largest holding in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, its recent weakness adds pressure to an already fragile group.
Intuit is currently stuck in a range between $700 and $800, and the price action is forming a bear flag, a continuation pattern signaling potential further downside. A decisive break below $700 could unleash a swift 100-point decline.
The one-year chart shows Intuit is now retesting a cup-base breakout, which formed over seven months between November and May. If this retest fails, the technical damage could deepen quickly, turning what was once leadership into a drag on the entire sector.
On a possible brighter note, Synopsis, a leading software infrastructure play, is higher by 26% YTD compared with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF rise of 7%.
The stock, which fell 2% to $612.79 on Tuesday, is demonstrating some resilience as it trades 6% off its most recent 52 week highs and technically is holding up in superior fashion. Stocks that show that strength deserve attention and it is well above both its 50 and 200 day simple moving averages, a rare feat within software.The top-10 holding in the ETF should find support near the very round $600, an area that was a ceiling in the second half of 2024. That level would likely turn into support and one can add to above a bull flag pivot of $625 could see a move to $815 in second half of 2026.Sometimes you take strength where you can find it.
指數還可考慮SPMO. 你逐漸step in買了dip的文法很好
前一陣去看兒子時，和他同學，在Palantir 工作的一個小天才聊天，然後我開始對這家公司感興趣，Peter Thiel的vision and leadership 不用說，公司的護城河也強壯，market monopolies, AI platform’s force multiplier…..這是一個我願意長持的公司，雖然現在的valuation是蠻高的，但growth 也同樣可觀。結合你另一篇“漫談股市回調”，我說一下我的操作—— 把資金分成3-4，前兩天在$160左右開倉，然後設置自動買入（我沒有時間盯盤也沒有時間做option,最輕鬆的方式就是limit order ），every 10% dip add double shares , 希望可以dip 到40%, 當然這很可能是我的wishful thinking lol, 所以這樣的操作必須每一筆交易分量夠大，必須對買進的公司有信念，還必須是長持,再必須以後任何有好機會時繼續加倉。
想聽聽獅山對我這樣操作的點評，有何可以改進的地方嗎？謝謝！