Jayant Bhandari 印度無可挽救, 野蠻與殘暴不可避免

Jayant Bhandari 印度無可挽救, 野蠻與殘暴不可避免

印度部落製已無可挽救。野蠻與殘暴不可避免。Jayant Bhandari 談及

Tribal India Can't Be Fixed. Savagery and Barbarism is Inevitable. Jayant Bhandari Discusses

2020年9月10日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5EiTFqm4Lk

在我們對 Jayant Bhandari 的采訪中，他告訴我們：“第三世界國家，尤其是印度，正在以部落為單位向內崩潰、瓦解，這意味著戰爭不可避免。”

這段視頻摘自對 Crux Investor 投資者兼分析師 Jayant Bhandari 的采訪。

我們采訪了他關於他的投資策略和理念。他告訴我們，這關乎理解人類行為。

在這段采訪中，Jayant 講述了他對阻礙其祖國印度發展的政治和民族主義的看法；以及他對巴基斯坦、敘利亞、委內瑞拉等“第三世界”國家未來的看法……以及為什麽民族主義和狂熱主義會導致這些國家陷入經濟和道德的衰退，並使其重回新的黑暗時代；他希望印度能回到殖民時代，並希望唐納德·特朗普能給印度帶來理智。
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我真正的使命是理解人性，理解人類社會的發展方向，並將我的投資策略建立在此之上，因為我對世界的看法和其他人的看法有很多不同。如果我沒有誤解，我期望比其他人賺更多的錢，嗯，這就是我的出發點，但我的根本動力是理解人類社會的演變。那麽，作為一名投資者，你對人性有什麽深刻的信念？你認為這是否不可避免？我們是否會不斷犯同樣的錯誤？這是人性嗎？你在尋找什麽主題？馬修，我在一個極其貧窮和不可能的社會長大，當然，那就是印度。我一直渴望了解印度背後是什麽，讓這個國家如此貧窮和悲慘。你知道，當我今天開車穿過這座城市時，那裏有盲童和盲女。在45攝氏度左右的酷熱天氣裏，他們試圖乞討，他們的生活並不比蟑螂好，在我的一生中，我一直在努力理解是什麽讓一些國家如此貧窮，而另一些國家如此富裕。20年前，印度比中國更窮。30年前，今天的中國的人均收入是印度的5倍。呃，我真的想知道為什麽這些國家如此富有，而另一些國家卻如此貧窮。那麽，你認為這是什麽原因造成的呢？我認為這是一個巨大的文化問題。你必須明白，基督教傳教士和歐洲殖民者是上帝派到這些第三世界國家的。這些人試圖將這些極度不理性的部落和迷信的人們改變成我所說的文明，但他們隻取得了很小的成功。自從歐洲殖民者離開後，呃，每個第三世界國家，我能排除的唯一兩個國家是新加坡和香港。每個第三世界國家國家持續惡化，這些國家正在走向崩潰，他們的製度正在分崩離析，社會正在崩潰，因為從根本上說，這些社會是部落迷信的非理性社會，歐洲殖民者和歐洲傳教士隻能在其中帶來很小的積極變化，而這種積極變化已經消失，因為管理的支柱不再是歐洲的，這些國家需要歐洲的管理，否則，這些國家將再次回到中世紀，黑暗時代，這是一個文化問題，至少需要幾千年才能改變這些文化問題，如果你能改變這些文化問題，我的意思是，這是一個相當大的聲明，如果我看看印度現在的處境，嗯，我認為你可以說它最不需要的就是歐洲式的管理，你說的是現代歐洲管理，而不是殖民時期，因為我認為這可能是阻礙它發展的原因，或者不是，實際上，印度需要的是這個國家在殖民時期所經曆的類似的管理，今天的英國人和西方人非常天真，他們已經失去了統治世界的智慧，所以當我說歐洲殖民化，我實際上指的是歐洲殖民化，他們非常擅長管理這些國家，今天的歐洲人不再勝任，你知道，我在歐洲和北美呆了很多時間，呃，今天的西方社會已經墮落了，他們可能不再有能力統治這些第三世界國家，好吧，我想你在西方唯一能指出的強大領導者就是像唐納德·特朗普這樣的人，我很喜歡唐納德·特朗普，但我不認為唐納德·特朗普對印度這樣的國家來說是個好人，你需要的是一個像勝利這樣的國家印度需要這樣的人來恢複理智，這個國家現在變得越來越瘋狂，對吧？你說，因為目前政治環境混亂，非常令人困惑，在決策和執行方麵幾乎陷入僵局，你能舉幾個例子說明一下現在的情況嗎？今天的領導層完全是腦死亡的，這個國家的領導人真的什麽都不懂，他們沒有遠見，沒有想象力，他們不僅僅是腐敗，他們實際上非常不理性，我想說他們相當愚蠢，所以他們之所以能掌權，是因為他們能夠操縱極其迷信的民眾，而這些民眾隻期待免費的東西，今天每個政黨都在互相競價，看誰能為這些人提供更多免費的東西，例如印度總理，現任總理，上台時曾提出要給印度的每個家庭，或者也許是每個印度人大約每人22000美元，我再說一遍，每人22000美元，而這個國家的人均GDP隻有大約2000美元。那麽，他怎麽能把這麽多錢帶到這個國家，然後免費贈送呢？這世上沒有人能真正算出個大概的數字。但是，今天，另一個政黨，反對黨國大黨，提出每年給每個人大約1000美元，相比之下，這個國家的人均GDP隻有2000美元。在這個國家，這筆錢絕對不可能免費贈送。但這就是這個國家的情況。這個國家沒有。沒有願景，沒有重點。沒有法治，沒有對個人的尊重。這是一個日益部落化的社會。今天，作為經濟學家和評論員，你知道是什麽驅使你這麽做的嗎？你想指出的是係統崩潰了，或者你對如何修複有什麽看法？
如何修複？馬修，這根本無法修複。
現在太晚了，因為正如我所說，
歐洲人已經無法再回去統治這些國家了。
在歐洲人統治這些國家的時候，
歐洲人的能力比現在強得多。
而當時第三世界的人口
大約隻有現在的五分之一。
所以，就管理比例而言，
第三世界國家的人口
與大眾的比例，
我們已經遠遠失衡了。
我們不可能再管理這些國家了。
地球上75億人口中，大約有50億生活在這些第三世界國家。
所有這些國家都在崩潰。
它們將分裂成部落單位。
它們將分裂成
呃，它們將永遠處於戰爭狀態。
這就是我所說的。
這意味著，這將在世界範圍內造成巨大的混亂。隨著
這些國家
持續內爆，你看到的是
內爆
在敘利亞等國，你開始看到土耳其的問題
你看到委內瑞拉的問題日益嚴重
巴基斯坦將在未來
幾年內爆
如果油價繼續保持在目前的水平，中東將遭受巨大損失
這實際上意味著第三世界
將麵臨許多問題
現在
國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行為第三世界唱讚歌，因為
據他們所說，這些國家
正在快速發展
但在我看來，這實際上正是
這些國家的問題所在，因為這些
國家是部落製的
而且它們正在變得富裕，這幾乎意味著
它們有
更多時間來製造問題，所以這些國家
經濟增長的不斷加快
將導致這些國家出現更多問題而不是更少問題
所以你是說這些國家
正在發展
它們正在集體富裕起來但
並非作為
個人，人們被拋在後麵
或者某些
大眾被拋在後麵
經濟增長與文化智力增長之間存在著巨大的不匹配
這些人
隻是變得更加傲慢
因為他們有了更多的時間
他們變得更加狂熱，更加
民族主義
你看到的是狂熱主義和
民族主義浪潮在
所有東南亞國家
印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、緬甸、斯裏蘭卡、孟加拉國、印度、尼泊爾等等
不斷高漲
因為這些人有更多時間，而且
他們實際上並不是那種應該
賺錢的人。實際情況是
因為他們有更多錢，他們就有更多時間製造問題
他們有更多機會在社會上製造麻煩
所以現在這些人喝醉了，他們看了很多電視，他們開著車，但一個以享樂為中心的社會
不可避免地會變成一個
被……主導的社會野蠻和野蠻最終

Tribal India Can't Be Fixed. Savagery and Barbarism is Inevitable. Jayant Bhandari Discusses

 

2020年9月10日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5EiTFqm4Lk

 

In our interview with Jayant Bhandari, he tells us that, "3rd World countries and especially India are imploding and falling in tribal units which means war in inevitable."

 

This video is an extract from an interview with Jayant Bhandari, investor and analyst, and Crux Investor.

 

We ask him about his investment strategies and philosophies. And he tells us it is about understanding human behaviour.

 

In this extract, Jayant tells us his thoughts about the politics and nationalism holding back his home country of India; and his beliefs about the future of '3rd world' countries such as Pakistan, Syria, Venezuela...And why nationalism & fanaticism will lead them to certain financial and moral decline reverting them to a new dark ages; His wish for a return to the colonial past and if Donald Trump can bring sanity to India.

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my real calling is to understand human nature and to understand where the human society is going and i piggyback my investment strategy on the back of it because there are a lot of differences between how i see the world and how other people see the world and if i'm correct i expect to make more money in comparison to other people uh so that's where i come from but my basic drive is to understand uh the evolution of human society so what is what are your what are your deeply held beliefs about humanity in the sense of being an investor clearly do you think there's an inevitability about it do we keep making the same mistakes is it human nature what are the themes that you're looking for so matthew i grew up in an extremely rest poor and impossible society and and that is of course india and i was always keen on understanding what was it behind india that made this country so utterly poor and so utterly wretched and i you know when i was driving across the city where i am inin today there was there were blind children blind women trying to beg up when it's extremely hot it's about 45 degrees centigrade they have lives no better than lives of cockroaches and over my life i have tried to understand what is it that makes some countries so poor and some countries so rich india was more poor than china was 20 years back 30 years back today china is five times as rich as india is on per capita basis uh and i really want to understand why is it that these countries are so rich and some other countries are so poor so and what do you put it down to i i think it's there's a huge cultural issue you have to um people have to understand that christian missionaries and european colonizers were god sent to these third world countries these people tried to change these extremely irrational tribal and superstitious people into what i might call a civilization but they were only successful in a very minor way and since the departure of european colonizers uh every third world country and the only two countries that i can exclude exclude from that are singapore and hong kong every third world country has continued to deteriorate and these countries are really imploding they have their institutions are falling apart socially these societies are falling apart because fundamentally these societies are tribal superstitious irrational societies something that european colonizers and european missionaries manage to make only a small amount of positive difference in and that positive difference has fallen away because the spine the management is no longer european these countries need european management without that these countries will revert back to their middle ages the dark ages again it's a cultural issue and it takes at least a couple of millennia to change these cultural issues if at all you can change these cultural issues i mean that's a pretty big statement if i look at you know india where you are today um i think you could argue the last thing that it needs is european type you talk about modern european management not the colonial past because i think that's possibly what's holding it back or no actually what india needs is the similar management that this country had during the colonial times the british and western people of today are very naive they have lost the wisdom of ruling the world now so when i say european colonization i actually do mean european colonization they were extremely competent at managing these countries today's europeans are no longer competent and as you know i spend a lot of time in europe and north america and uh the degradation has set in the western society today they are probably no longer competent to rule these third world countries right okay well i guess the only kind of strong leader you you would point to in the west would be someone like donald trump i quite like donald trump but i don't think donald trump would be a good person for a country like india what you needed was a country people like winston churchill or margaret thatcher these are the kind of people indian would need to come to a state of sanity this country is becoming increasingly insane right now right and and you you say that because of the the chaos around the the politics at the moment is very very confusing and it's it's almost gridlocked in a way in terms of the decision-making and implementation i mean can you give us some examples of what's going on there well it is a completely brain-dead leadership today the leaders that the country has today really don't understand anything they have no vision no imagination and they're not just crooked they  are actually are very irrational and i would say rather stupid so they they came into positions of power because they were in a position to manipulate an extremely extremely superstitious masses and these are the masses who only look forward to free stuff and today every political party is trying to output bid each other in terms of who would offer more free stuff to these people for example the indian prime minister the current prime minister when he came to power had offered to give every family in india or perhaps every individual in india about 22000 u.s dollars per person i repeat 22 000 us dollar per person when the gdp per capita of this country is about 2 000 u.s dollar so how does that how can he bring that kind of money to this country and give it away for free is something no one on the planet can really create mathematics off but then today there's another party the opposition congress party which is offering to give

every person about a

thousand us dollar per year now again

compared to the gdp of per capita of two

thousand dollars per year

it is an absolutely impossible amount to

give as free stuff

in this country but that's all that

happens in this country there's no

vision there's no focus

there's no rule of law there is no

respect for the individual

it's a try increasingly a tribal society

today

right so as an economist and a

commentator

you know what what's driving you to do

this are you trying to point out that

the system's broken

or you know have you got a view on how

it how it can be

fixed this can't be fixed matthew this

is

far too late now because as i said

europeans can no longer return back to

rule these countries

when europeans were ruling these

countries europeans were

more competent much more competent than

they are today

and the populations of the third world

was about one-fifth

of what it is today so in terms of

proportion

of management to the masses

of the third world countries we are way

out of shape now

it is impossible to manage these

countries about

five billion of seven and a half billion

people on the planet live in these third

world countries

and all these countries are imploding

they will fall apart into tribal units

they will fall apart into

uh situations in which they will forever

be in war with each other and this is

where i'm coming from

now what this means is that this will

create a huge

amount of chaos around the world as

these countries

continue to implode and what you see is

implosion

in countries like syria and you are

starting to see problems in turkey

you see increasing problem in venezuela

pakistan is going to implode over the

next

couple of years middle east will suffer

hugely if oil price continues to be

where it is

which really means that there's a lot of

problems

that the third world is looking forward

to now

imf and the world bank sing songs of

glory about the third world because

according to them these countries are

growing very fast

in in my view it is actually the exact

problem of these countries because these

countries are tribal

and they are becoming rich which pretty

much means that they have

more time to create problems so this

increasing increase economic growth of

these countries

will lead to more problems not less in

these countries

so are you saying that these countries

are developing

they are getting richer collectively but

not as

individuals people are being left behind

or certain

the the masses are being left behind

there's a huge amount of

mismatch between economic growth and

cultural intellectual growth in these

people

they have just become more arrogant

because they have more time they have

become more fanatic and more

nationalistic

what you see is a wave of fanaticism and

nationalism increasing in

all the southeast asian countries

indonesia malaysia myanmar sri lanka

bangladesh india nepal the list goes on

and on because these people have more time and

they were not really the kind of people who should

have made money what is actually happening is that

because they have more money they have more time to create problems

and they have more access to tools to create troubles in the society

so for now these people are drunk they are watching a lot of tv they are enjoying

their cars but a pleasure-centric society

invariably becomes a society that becomes

dominated by savagery and barbarism eventually