風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
遊曆中國，我清楚地意識到，中國很快就會成為世界上最強大的國家
Stephen Davies 15 June 2025
Dr. Stephen Davies, Faculty of Humanities, History McMaster University 教授， 麥克馬斯特大學人文與曆史學院
Stephen.Davies@viu.ca
中國統治世界
今年五月，我有幸在中國遊曆了一個月。在那裏，很多事情引起了我的注意。總的來說，通過觀察、與當地人的交流以及導遊和其他人的介紹，我留下了一些深刻而清晰的印象。
首先，過去三十年甚至更短時間內建成的基礎設施令人驚歎，不僅令人印象深刻，而且令人歎為觀止。最引人注目的是自2005年左右以來修建的高鐵網絡。目前，此類線路總長3萬英裏，全部建於過去二十年。鐵路網也得到了大規模擴建，包括高鐵線路在內，總長已達9.6萬英裏，計劃到2050年將其延伸至17萬英裏。根據外部觀察人士的最佳估計，這項投資的回報率在6%到8%之間。由於該係統大部分是從零開始建造的，因此擁有與機場航站樓大小相當的全新大型車站。列車時速200英裏，舒適幹淨，乘坐體驗非常平穩，幾乎感覺不到速度的提升。
1506 中國鐵路1506 中國鐵路
不僅僅是火車。中國各地還有一係列機場，其中大多數規模與歐洲主要國際機場相當。同樣，這些機場都是全新的。鐵路沿線是密集的長途高速公路網，以及現代化的省級和地方公路。中國擁有11.4萬英裏的高速公路，其餘國家公路網總長130萬英裏（190萬公裏）。與鐵路係統一樣，中國也在不斷延伸。需要注意的是，建設基礎設施是一回事（西方國家並非如此），真正的挑戰在於維護。
任何到訪中國的人都會注意到，基礎設施建設的另一個方麵是城市發展。過去二十年，中國經曆了一場戲劇性的城市發展進程，新城市如雨後春筍般湧現，老城區也新增了數百萬套住房。這種發展呈現出一種獨特的形式，即高樓林立、高密度。中國城鎮的向上發展和向外擴張一樣迅猛。城市中高樓林立，通常有30到40層。最初的印象是千篇一律，但仔細觀察就會發現並非如此。大多數塔樓並非簡單的盒子狀，而是將裝飾元素融入設計之中，看似單一的體量分解成風格相似的塔樓群。在地麵層，可以清晰地看到每個塔樓群都被圍起來，形成一個封閉式社區，零售和其他設施則位於塔樓的低層。因此，這些新城擁有高密度的模塊化結構。
1506年中國道路地圖1506年中國道路地圖
中國城市發展的另一個特點是城市綠化程度高。到處都是樹木和綠地，大部分樹木顯然是在過去三十年種植的。高速公路和主幹道的支柱兩側爬滿了常春藤，沿路擺放著成箱的花草，所有這些都得到了維護。這種模式被稱為“海綿城市”，在高層住宅區、老舊的低層住宅區和超高層商業中心之間，留有綠化和開放空間的“縫隙”。這種模式遠不如美國模式以汽車為中心，盡管汽車數量眾多，但它們目前並非主要的交通工具。主要的交通工具是電動滑板車，成群結隊地在街道上飛馳，公共交通和步行是其補充。
中國城市與許多西方城市的另一個區別是它們的秩序。這裏沒有無家可歸的人或乞丐，盡管城市充滿活力，但你看不到或發現反社會行為。公共場所一塵不染，部分原因是擁有一支名副其實的街道清潔工大軍（其中大多數是老年人），也是因為亂扔垃圾的情況根本不存在。其中一個原因是低調但無處不在的警察：每個小社區都有專門的警察，警察的照片和聯係電話都掛在牆上。警察的身影隨處可見。然而，有證據表明，警察隻是在支持強有力的公共行為社會規範，而這些規範強烈反對反社會行為。
秩序的陰暗麵在於管控的程度。所有交通樞紐和大多數主要曆史遺跡或公共建築都設有安全檢查。參觀許多地方需要
需要帶照片的身份證明，外國人需出示護照，本地人需出示身份證。但這有一個重要的限製條件：雖然安全檢查和身份證係統是全國統一的，但眾所周知的社會信用體係並非如此——它在各個省份或地區之間存在很大差異。這反映了中國政府的一個主要特點，即相對分散的權力。黨並非統一而單一的。雖然有國家戰略和政策，但每個省級甚至市級黨組織都擁有很大的自主權，可以在很大程度上推行自己的戰略。因此，中國各地的政策和戰略細節存在很大差異。這並不是什麽新鮮事——它反映了自公元前221年建國以來貫穿中國國家曆史的治理體係。
周末假期，北京，身著清朝服飾的婦女們在天壇拍照留念。周末假期，北京，身著清朝服飾的婦女們在天壇拍照留念。——Andy Wong/AP
這反映了我最令人驚訝的觀察之一：中國傳統思維方式和生活方式的持續存在，甚至有所保留。盡管城市和基礎設施令人印象深刻，但農村的繁榮與發展才是最引人注目的。在中國大部分地區，鄉鎮和村莊都擁有新建的現代化住房，這些住房通常由私人儲蓄提供資金。除了主幹道網絡之外，還有密集的小型鋪裝道路和小徑係統，將農村與國家電網連接起來。此外，這裏還幾乎完全實現了電氣化和互聯網覆蓋。農業模式非常傳統，與西方模式截然不同。鄉村景觀（以及城市周圍和城市內部的大部分空地）是由非常小的田地組成的，更像是分配地。這裏實行的是中國傳統的集約化永續農業，即定期輪作和混合耕作。這種農業模式產量很高，但不依賴高能源投入。然而，它仍然高度勞動密集，但隨著城市化進程的推進，這種情況正在改變。然而，城鄉之間仍然保持著非常緊密的聯係，許多遷入城市的人仍然與農村土地保持著聯係，並承擔著部分土地的責任，至今仍在耕種。農業高度集約——無論在哪裏，都不會有一寸適合耕種的土地被閑置。
農業隻是古老中國延續和複興的眾多方式之一。諸如陰陽兩極之類的傳統觀念依然根深蒂固。在年輕人中，傳統宗教信仰和教規明顯複興，尤其是佛教，也包括道教和儒教。佛教寺廟裏擠滿了年輕人，尤其是女性，她們並非以遊客的身份前來，而是來祈福的。黨對此習以為常，並在許多地區積極鼓勵，重建佛寺，甚至儒家寺廟。（這令人驚訝，因為儒家思想是帝製中國的官方哲學。）
事實上，人們獲得的印象是，國家的意識形態基礎正在緩慢但穩步地轉變，轉向一種既源於儒家思想和法家思想曆史傳統，也源於現代思想的混合體。對毛澤東的崇拜，盡管在官方層麵依然盛行，但正在逐漸消退，與其說是因為意識形態的否定，不如說是因為時間的流逝。毛澤東正在成為一位重要的曆史人物，在很多方麵與他的榜樣——秦始皇——相似。現行體製仍然具有強大的合法性，但文化大革命令人惋惜。對於中年人來說，最受敬仰的人物是鄧小平，他被譽為中國對外開放的功臣，並將經濟體製從計劃經濟轉變為市場經濟。另一位受人尊敬的人物是孫中山，他是20世紀20年代共和國的締造者。獨特的是，他在海峽兩岸都受到崇敬，國家的實際政策不僅源於他的“三民主義”，也源於社會主義（尤其是“民族主義”和“福利主義”）。
人們對中國曆史有著廣泛的興趣，並對其中的大部分曆史內容表示崇敬。有趣的是，年輕人，尤其是女性，會穿著曆史服飾參觀曆史遺跡。這因地區而異——在北京，人們主要穿著清朝滿族宮廷服飾，在西安則穿著唐代服飾，而在長三角城市，人們則穿著宋代服飾。曆史並非不加批判地被接受，而是普遍受到人們的欽佩和尊重。廣受推崇的曆史人物包括秦始皇、明朝洪武和永樂皇帝，以及
武則天和唐太宗。一般來說，漢、唐、明三朝受人推崇，宋、清則遜色一些。共同點在於，受人尊敬的人物和朝代，往往被認為促進了中國的繁榮富強和對外開放；而受人貶低的人物和朝代，則與中國相對世界其他地區的弱勢和文化衰落聯係在一起。這一切都反映了另一種正在複興的古老觀念：國家成功的關鍵並非製度或政策，而是領導力的素質。
中國是一個充滿活力和創新精神的社會，在個人和家庭層麵也競爭激烈。它高度麵向未來，但又與過去息息相關，過去以各種方式受到人們的崇敬。中國擁有一個威權但高效能的政府。這一切能持續多久尚待觀察，但如今的中國正成為“國家能力”理念的宣傳標杆。中國文化中強烈地崇尚教育和自我完善，這種崇尚往往非常物質化。這種現象在個人層麵上體現為對身體健康的投入，公共健身課程是城市生活的主要特征。此外，強烈的職業道德也起著重要作用。
所有這些都麵臨著挑戰。目前尚不清楚，在現代移動通信和社交媒體的衝擊下，道德集體主義和職業道德還能維持多久。官方圈子對低於更替水平的出生率感到擔憂，甚至近乎恐慌，但與其他地方一樣，沒有跡象表明國家的生育政策正在產生任何效果。人口老齡化是未來的巨大挑戰，但當前最嚴峻的問題，與世界各地一樣，是大城市的住房成本——上海的住房成本與北美或歐洲的主要大都市相當。這與持續不斷的住房供應相吻合，表明造成這種情況的並非供應緊張，而是住房金融化和全球貨幣體係的紊亂。許多當地人評論的一件事是新冠疫情的持續影響——例如，它導致國內航空旅行減少了一半。
目前，所有證據表明，中國是一個充滿活力的社會，國家和經濟運轉高效，並且對其曆史和身份認同感到安心。中國堅定地致力於與世界其他國家接觸並保持開放，並渴望看到中國恢複唐朝時期的世界領先地位。我們才剛剛開始看到這種模式對世界其他國家的影響。長期以來，中國視自己為世界的中心或中間王國，而世界其他國家則視其為最強大、最文明的國家——這種情況直到18世紀70年代之後才有所改變。我們幾乎肯定會回歸到這種狀態。
Travelling through China, it is clear this will soon be the most powerful nation in the world
Stephen Davies 15 June 2025
Dr. Stephen Davies, Faculty of Humanities, History McMaster University
Stephen.Davies@viu.ca
In May I had the opportunity to spend a month travelling around China...
In May I had the opportunity to spend a month travelling around China. Many things caught my attention while I was there. In general, I came away with some strong and clear impressions, from what I observed, from interactions with people there and from things guides and others said.
The first is that the infrastructure that has been built in the last thirty years or less is simply amazing, not just impressive but jaw-dropping. Most spectacular is the network of high-speed railway lines built since roughly 2005. Currently there are 30,000 miles of such lines, all built in the last twenty years. The total railway network, which has also been massively expanded, stands at 96,000 miles including the HSR lines with the plan being to extend it to 170,000 miles by 2050. According to the best estimates by outside observers, the return on this investment is between six and eight per cent. Since the system has largely been built from scratch, it features enormous brand-new stations the size of airport terminals. The trains, which run at 200 mph, are comfortable and clean and the ride is so smooth that the speed is almost unnoticeable.
It is not only trains. There is also a series of airports all over China, most as big as major international ones in Europe. Again, these are brand new. Alongside the railways is a dense network of both long-distance motorways and modernised provincial and local roads. There are 114,000 miles of expressways with the rest of the national highway system amounting to 1.3 million miles (1.9 million kilometres). As with the rail system, this is being constantly extended. The big caveat is that building the infrastructure is one thing (not that Western countries are doing that) but the real challenge is maintaining it.
The other aspect of infrastructure that anyone visiting China notices is the urban development. China has seen a dramatic process of urban development in the last two decades, with new cities springing up everywhere and older ones adding millions of new housing units. This takes a distinctive form, which is high-rise and high-density. Chinese cities and towns have grown upwards as much as outwards. Cities feature forests of high-rise towers, typically of thirty to forty floors. The initial impression is of uniformity but on closer examination that changes. Most of the towers are not simple boxes but have decorative features as part of the design and what seems a single mass resolves into grouped clusters of towers with similar styles. At ground level it becomes clear that each cluster is fenced off and forms a single gated neighbourhood, with retail and other facilities on the lower floors of the towers. The new cities thus have a high-density modular structure.
The other feature of Chinese urban development is how green the cities are. There are trees and green spaces everywhere with most of the trees clearly planted in the last thirty years. The expressways and major roads have ivy growing up the sides of supporting pillars and boxes of flowers and plants along their lengths, all maintained. The pattern is what is known as a “sponge city” with threads and “holes” of greenery and open space between the high-rise neighbourhoods and the older low-rise ones and the very high-rise commercial centres. This pattern is far less car-centric than its American equivalent and although there are many cars, they are not at present the primary means of transportation. That is the electric scooter with swarms of them zooming around all of the streets, supplemented by both public transport and walking.
Another difference between Chinese cities and many Western ones is their orderliness. There are no homeless people or beggars and although the cities are lively and dynamic you do not see or find anti-social behaviour. Public spaces are spotlessly clean, partly because of a veritable army of street cleaners (most of them older people) but also because littering simply does not happen. One reason for this is a low-key but pervasive police presence: each small neighbourhood has its own attached police officer with photographs of them displayed along with that officer’s mobile number for contacting them. Police are highly visible. However, the evidence suggests that the police are simply backing up strong social norms of public behaviour, which strongly disapprove of anti-social conduct.
The darker side of the orderliness is the degree of control. There are security checks at all transport terminals and most major historical sites or public buildings. Visiting many places requires photo identification, passports for foreigners, ID cards for locals. There is an important qualification to this though: while the security checks and ID system are uniform and national, the well-known social credit system is not – it varies considerably from one province or locality to another. This reflects a major feature of the Chinese state which is its relative decentralisation. The Party is not uniform and monolithic. Although there are national strategies and policies, each provincial or even city level Party has a great deal of autonomy and can pursue its own strategy to a great extent. As a result there is considerable variation in details of policy and strategy from one part of China to another. This is not novel – it reflects a system of governance found throughout the history of the Chinese state all the way back to its formation in 221 BC.
This reflects one of the most surprising observations I made, the persistence and even reassertion of older Chinese ways of thinking and living. Although the cities and infrastructure are impressive, the striking feature is the prosperity and success of the countryside. Across most of China, rural towns and villages have new, modern housing, often funded by private savings. Alongside the network of major roads is a dense system of smaller paved roads and paths that connect the countryside to the national system. This is coupled with both near-complete electrification and internet provision. The pattern of agriculture is very traditional and strikingly different from the Western model. The rural landscape (and much of the open space around and within cities) is one of very small fields, more like allotments. What is practised is traditional Chinese intensive permaculture with regular rotation of crops and mixed farming, a pattern of agriculture that is very efficient in terms of yields but which does not rely on high energy inputs. It is however still very labour intensive but this is changing with urbanisation. However, there are still very strong connections between countryside and city, with many who have moved to the city retaining a connection with and responsibility contract for portions of rural land, which they still farm. The farming is very intensive – not a square inch of land suitable for farming is left idle no matter where it is.
Agriculture is only one of many ways in which old China persists and re-emerges. Traditional ideas, such as the polarity of Yin and Yang are as strong as ever. Among the young there is a clear revival of traditional religious belief and observance, notably of Buddhism, but also of Taoism and Confucianism. Buddhist temples are crowded with young people, particularly women, who come not as tourists but to pray. The Party is comfortable with this and in many regions actively encourages it, rebuilding Buddhist temples and even Confucian ones. (That is surprising because of Confucianism being the official philosophy of imperial China.)
In fact, the impression gained is that the ideological basis of the state is slowly but steadily shifting, to a hybrid one that owes as much to the historic traditions of Confucianism and Legalism as modern thought. The cult of Mao, while officially as strong as ever, is slowly fading not so much because of ideological repudiation as the simple passage of time. Mao is becoming simply another major historical figure, similar in many ways to his own role model, the First Emperor Ch’in Shi Huang Ti. The current system still has strong legitimacy but the Cultural Revolution is regretted. For middle aged people the figure who is admired is Deng Xiaoping, credited with the opening of China to the rest of the world and the transformation of the economic system from a command economy to a dirigiste market one. Another revered figure is Sun Yat Sen, the founder of the Republic in the 1920s. Uniquely, he is venerated on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the actual policy of the state owes as much to his “Three Principles” as socialism (particularly “Nationalism” or Minzu and Welfarism or Minsheng).
This is a very dynamic and innovative society that is also intensely competitive at an individual and familial level. It is highly futuristic and forward looking but also connected to its past, which is venerated in various ways. It has an authoritarian but effective and competent government. How long all this will survive is another matter but right now China is an advert for the idea of “state capacity”. There is a strong cultural commitment to ideals of education and self-improvement, often very materialistic. One form this takes at a personal level is commitment to physical fitness and health, with public exercise classes being a major feature of urban life. This is coupled with a powerful work ethic.
All of this faces challenges. It is not clear how long the ethical collectivism and work ethic will survive the impact of modern cellular communications and social media. There is concern, getting close to panic in official circles, about the below replacement birth-rate but, as elsewhere, there is no sign that the pro-natalist policies of the state are having any effect. The ageing population poses a massive challenge going forward but the current acute problem, as everywhere in the world, is housing costs in major cities – Shanghai has costs comparable to major metros in North America or Europe. That this coincides with massive and continuing supply suggests that it is not supply constraints that cause this but the financialisation of housing and the derangement of the global monetary system. One thing that many locals commented on was the continuing impact of the Covid pandemic – it has halved domestic air travel for example.
For now, China is, on all of the evidence, a dynamic society with a functioning and effective state and economy that is comfortable with its past and its identity. There is a strong commitment to engagement with and openness to the rest of the world and a desire to see China recover the kind of position it had under the Tang, as the leading world civilisation. We are only starting to see the impact this model will have on the rest of the world. For a long time, China saw itself as the central or middle kingdom of the world and the rest of the world regarded it as the most powerful and most civilised state – this only changed after the 1770s. We are almost certainly going to revert to that.
