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前財政部長薩默斯稱特朗普的政策“令人毛骨悚然地讓人聯想到”阿根廷的庇隆政府
作者：莫妮卡·L·科雷亞，南非新聞編輯，2025年8月7日
前財政部長勞倫斯·薩默斯周四將美國總統唐納德·特朗普的政府比作1946年阿根廷胡安·庇隆政府，稱特朗普的政策“令人毛骨悚然地讓人聯想到”庇隆政府。
曾在比爾·克林頓政府時期（1999年至2001年）擔任財政部長的薩默斯在接受彭博電視台采訪時表示，美國人必須汲取戰後阿根廷以及一戰後其他歐洲國家的教訓。
“阿根廷完全偏離了正軌，是因為一位通過民主選舉產生的領導人在幾年內做出的決定，他追求獨裁而不是推崇民主。這應該成為商界所有人以及所有參與政治進程人士的警示，”同時也是哈佛大學教授的薩默斯說道。
庇隆在阿根廷執政時，阿根廷在20世紀初是世界第五大經濟體。智庫OMFIF在2023年的分析顯示，庇隆希望阿根廷能夠更加自給自足，因此實施了高關稅等貿易保護主義政策，最終導致經濟衰退。
“隨著時間的推移，民族主義情緒逐漸蔓延，經濟成功越來越取決於誰與政府友好，而越來越不取決於誰真正擅長生產產品並與外國人競爭——阿根廷的經濟表現因此變得災難性，”薩默斯說道。“如果你仔細想想，就會發現這種模式與我們目前的處境驚人地相似。”
薩默斯發表此番言論之際，特朗普正因貿易政策以外的行動而麵臨批評。就在7月份就業報告公布數小時後，特朗普解雇了勞工統計局局長埃裏卡·麥肯塔弗，引發了人們對“香蕉共和國”的擔憂。
薩默斯在彭博電視台與大衛·威斯汀主持的《華爾街周刊》節目中表示，盡管美國擁有“高度韌性的機構”，但他看到了與庇隆政府的相似之處，包括保護主義、“圍繞領導人的個人崇拜”，以及對媒體、大學和律師事務所的攻擊。
薩默斯還對特朗普圍繞關稅做出的一些經濟承諾表示懷疑。“你不知道這些承諾意味著什麽，因為你不知道基準線會是什麽，”他說道。他還補充道，“大量投資將會流出，因為我們在提高所有投入品的價格的同時，也讓自己成為了一個問題重重的生產中心。”
他還補充道，其中一些貿易政策的後果可能會導致製造業“在數量上規模更小，質量上也更差”。
“我們正在疏遠世界其他國家；更高的投入品價格、給投資者帶來更大的不確定性以及疏遠消費者，這不可能是正確的策略，”他總結道，並補充道，“這裏有一個贏家……他的名字是習近平。”
特朗普已對貿易夥伴加拿大（35%）、印度（50%）、巴西（50%）加征關稅，並與其他夥伴達成了一些協議，例如歐盟（15%）、日本（15%）、英國（10%）和韓國（15%）。
最近，總統宣布對半導體征收100%的關稅，但部分產品享有豁免。
周四，華爾街股市回吐早盤漲幅，盤中一度走低，市場參與者對特朗普的關稅更新和疲軟的美國國債拍賣進行了權衡。
Ex-Treasury head Summers says Trump’s policies 'scarily reminiscent' of Argentina's Perón
Monica L. Correa, Aug. 07, 2025
Summers, who served as Treasury Secretary from 1999 to 2001 under Bill Clinton, told Bloomberg TV that Americans must pay attention to the cautionary lessons from postwar Argentina and other European nations after World War I.
“Argentina went completely off track because of decisions made in a few years by an elected – through a democracy – leader who pursued autocracy rather than venerating democracy, and that should be a cautionary tale for everyone in the business community, and everyone involved in our political process,” Summers, who is also a Harvard University professor, said.
Perón came to power in Argentina at a time when the country was the fifth largest economy in the world at the beginning of the 20th century. Perón, wishing to make Argentina more self-sufficient, implemented trade protectionist policies such as high tariffs, which eventually led to an economic downfall, according to a 2023 analysis by think tank OMFIF.
“Over time, as the nationalism took hold, as economic success became more and more about who is friends with the government – and less and less about who was really good at producing products and competing with foreigners – Argentina’s economic performance became calamitous,” Summers said. “It’s a model that, if you think about it, is scarily reminiscent of what we are doing right now.”
Summers' comments come at a time when Trump has faced criticism for actions beyond trade policies. The President's recent firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, just hours after a significantly weak July jobs report, sparked 'banana republic' concerns.
Summers, speaking on Bloomberg TV’s Wall Street Week with David Westin, said that although the U.S. had “highly resilient institutions,” he saw parallels with Perón's government, including protectionism, “a cult of personality around the leader,” and attacks on the media, universities, and law firms.
Summers also expressed skepticism about some of Trump’s economic promises centered around tariffs. “You don’t know what they mean, because you don’t know what the baseline would have been,” he said, and added that there is going to be “a lot of investment that goes out, because we’re making ourselves such a more problematic hub for production when we’re raising the price of all the inputs.”
He added that the consequence of some of these trade policies may give way to a manufacturing sector “that is both quantitatively smaller and qualitatively inferior.”
“We are alienating the rest of the world; higher priced inputs, much more uncertainty for investors and alienating of customers can’t be the right strategy,” he concluded, adding that “there’s a winner here… His name is Xi Jinping.”
Trump has imposed higher tariffs on trade partners Canada (35%), India (50%), Brazil (50%), and made some deals with other partners such as EU (15%), Japan (15%), UK (10%), and South Korea (15%).
Most recently, the president announced 100% tariffs on semiconductors with exemptions.
Wall Street on Thursday gave up early gains to trade lower as market participants weighed Trump's tariff updates and a weak Treasury bond auction.
