風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
中國禁止進口美國產品並導致美國經濟崩潰：下一步怎麽辦？
CHINA BAN US Import and Crash US Economy: What's Next?
2024年11月28日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j71Sq__jedE
唐納德·特朗普連任美國總統後，圍繞美國貿易政策可能轉變的討論愈演愈烈，其中最受爭議的提案是特朗普計劃對進口產品征收全麵關稅，重點是來自中國的商品，這些措施預計將加劇兩國之間本已緊張的貿易關係，而這些政策的細節仍不清楚，近年來，美中貿易大幅下滑，已經給依賴中國市場的美國企業帶來了相當大的挑戰，中國有意減少從美國的進口，作為其更廣泛努力的一部分，以多元化其供應商基礎，減少對美國商品的依賴，這一戰略在過去三年中對美國關鍵行業產生了顯著影響，兩國之間的貿易量在最近的舉措中大幅下降，中國還停止從美國供應商購買廢銅，這段視頻重點介紹了受此影響的四個主要行業在詳細探討這些行業之前，有必要回顧中美關係的曆史軌跡。
美國和中國的關係跨越了兩個多世紀，其特點是合作、競爭和衝突交替進行。本概述概述了兩國地緣政治和經濟互動的關鍵發展。1784 年 2 月 22 日，美國開始與中國進行直接貿易，當時商船“中國皇後號”從紐約港出發，標誌著美國進入利潤豐厚的對華貿易。這艘船也被稱為“中國皇後號”，是一艘三桅方形帆船，重 360 噸，最初建於 1783 年，作為私掠船使用。《巴黎條約》正式結束美國獨立戰爭後，這艘船被改裝用於商業目的。“中國皇後號”載有各種各樣的貨物，包括 30 噸金槍魚，在中國因其價值而受到高度重視。藥用特性 船長約翰·格林曾是美國海軍軍官，商業代理人或超級卡羅塞繆爾·肖和托馬斯·蘭德爾曾是美國大陸軍的軍官 船主集團包括新國家的一些最富有的人，例如羅伯特·莫裏斯 這艘船於 1784 年 8 月抵達廣州，現在的廣州，貨物在那裏被換成中國商品，如茶葉、絲綢和瓷器 中國皇後號於 1785 年 5 月 11 日經過 14 個月零 24 天的航行返回紐約 這次旅程的成功鼓勵了其他美國商人與中國進行貿易，從而導致了被稱為舊中國貿易的時代 在整個 19 世紀，美國擴大了其在中國的商業存在 然而，在此期間出現了緊張局勢，特別是在鴉片戰爭期間 1839 年至1860 年，盡管美國沒有在軍事上參與這些衝突，但它從這些衝突的結果中受益匪淺。1844 年，中美簽署了《萬吉條約》，這是美國和中國之間第一份正式協議。該條約賦予美國最惠國地位，確保其與其他西方國家享有平等特權。它還提供了治外法權，允許在華美國公民根據美國法律而不是中國司法權接受審判。《萬吉條約》為美國在中國的經濟利益和傳教活動開辟了新的機會。它允許美國人進入中國五個港口進行貿易，並允許美國人購買土地、建立教堂和醫院。該條約還取消了以前阻止外國人學習中文的限製。在第二次世界大戰期間，促進了更多的文化和商業交流。美國通過軍事援助、財政支持和外交等方式大大增強了中國抗日侵略的能力。人員部署，特別是飛虎隊，這個團體正式被稱為第一個美國誌願團體，中國空軍的 AVG 成立於 1941 年，由克萊爾·沙諾領導，她是一名退役的美國陸軍空軍上尉，由從美國各軍種招募的飛行員組成，AVG 的任務是保衛中國和緬甸，現在的緬甸，抵抗日本軍隊，他們獨特的鯊魚臉柯蒂斯 P40 戰鷹飛機成為他們勇敢任務的象征，飛虎隊於 1941 年 12 月 20 日取得了第一次戰鬥勝利，擊落了 10 架襲擊昆明的日本轟炸機中的 9 架，這大大提升了美國和中國軍隊的士氣，1945 年日本投降後，國民黨全唐國民黨和中國共產黨之間的中國內戰重新開始，盡管美國支持國民黨，包括軍事援助和谘詢援助，但中國共產黨由1949 年 10 月 1 日，毛澤東占據上風，宣布在大陸成立中華民國，而蔣介石領導的國民黨則撤退台灣繼續宣稱自己是中華民國 隨後的幾年裏，美國在冷戰和遏製共產主義戰略的大背景下努力應對其對華政策 最初，美國在外交上正式承認台灣的中華民國是全中國的合法政府，拒絕承認中華人民共和國 這一立場受到地緣政治考慮和支持非共產主義政權的願望的影響 美國向台灣提供經濟和軍事援助，加強其對潛在中華人民共和國侵略的立場 這一政策一直持續到 20 世紀 70 年代，當時國際關係的變化最終導致美國與台灣關係正常化 冷戰時期從 1949 年到 1971 年 在冷戰初期，美國實施了孤立共產主義國家的政策，包括中華人民共和國 這一戰略涉及全麵的貿易禁運，限製向中國出口戰略物資和技術，旨在擴大其經濟和政治影響力，美國一直保持單方麵禁運，直到 1969 年尼克鬆政府解除了對中國大部分貿易的限製，但戰略重要商品除外。1950 年至 1953 年朝鮮戰爭期間，中美兩國分別支持衝突中的對立雙方，導致兩國之間的緊張局勢升級。這場直接的軍事對抗加深了敵對情緒，鞏固了兩國之間的分歧。在整個 20 世紀 50 年代和 60 年代，貿易限製仍然存在。然而，到了 20 世紀 70 年代初，地緣政治的變化促使美國采取代頓政策，從而改善了兩國關係。1971 年 4 月，美國解除了自朝鮮戰爭開始以來對中國的貿易禁運。這一政策轉變最終導致理查德·尼克鬆總統對中國進行了曆史性的訪問。 1972 年訪問中國，標誌著兩國外交關係正常化的重要一步。 1971 年至 1979 年的外交關係正常化 20 世紀 70 年代，中美關係發生了重大轉變，始於 1972 年 2 月理查德·尼克鬆總統對中華民國的開創性訪問。這是美國現任總統首次訪問中華人民共和國。在兩國關係數十年的疏遠之後，此次訪問開啟了雙邊關係的解凍。訪問期間，尼克鬆總統會見了毛澤東主席和李克強總理，進行了討論，並最終於 1972 年 2 月 27 日發表了上海聯合聲明。這份聯合聲明概述了未來合作的框架，承認了雙方存在的分歧，特別是在台灣問題上，同時表達了共同努力實現關係正常化的願望。12 月 15 日，雙方關係取得了重大進展。 1978 年，吉米·卡特總統宣布，美國將於 1979 年 1 月 1 日正式承認中華民國。這一決定意味著切斷與中華民國台灣的官方外交關係，承認北京政府是中國的唯一合法政府。然而，為了保持與台灣的實質性關係，美國國會於 1979 年 4 月 10 日頒布了《台灣關係法》。《台灣關係法》建立了非官方關係的法律框架，促進了持續的經濟和文化交流，並授權向台灣提供防禦性武器。該法案旨在維護西太平洋的和平、安全與穩定，反映了美國對台灣安全的承諾，盡管沒有正式的外交關係。這些 1970 年代的外交演習為美國和中國之間複雜而多方麵的關係奠定了基礎，這種關係至今仍在平衡雙方的合作與競爭。各個領域讓我們稍作停頓，如果你到目前為止喜歡這個視頻，我們可以請你幫個小忙嗎點擊“讚”按鈕可以幫助我們接觸更廣泛的受眾，並在評論中分享你的想法或反饋會產生更大的影響，謝謝你的收看現在讓我們回顧一下 1980 年代到 2000 年代的經濟參與，20 世紀 70 年代末，在鄧小平的領導下，中國發起了一係列以市場為導向的改革，改變了其經濟，這些改革包括農業的非集體化、國家對外開放和國有企業的私有化，第一階段在 20 世紀 70 年代末和 80 年代初，涉及農業的非集體化、國家對外開放和允許企業家創業，第二階段在 20 世紀 80 年代末和20 世紀 90 年代，中國對許多國有企業進行了私有化和承包，這些改革為外國投資創造了重大機遇，美國企業迅速利用了中國龐大的勞動力和新興的消費市場，導致雙邊貿易激增。與美國公司開展貿易 在中國建立製造業務，以利用較低的生產成本並進入不斷增長的中國市場 2001 年，中國加入世界貿易組織，這是中美經濟關係的關鍵時刻。加入世界貿易組織要求中國實施重大貿易自由化措施，包括降低關稅、消除貿易壁壘和向外國競爭開放各個行業，因此，兩國之間的貿易迅速擴大，到 2019 年，美國和中國的貨物貿易額從 1999 年的不到 1000 億美元增加到 5580 億美元。中國加入世貿組織也對其國內經濟產生了深遠的影響，它加速了中國融入全球經濟的步伐，帶來了前所未有的經濟增長，並使數億人擺脫了貧困，但也帶來了挑戰，包括國內產業競爭加劇，需要進行重大的法律和監管改革以遵守世貿組織規則戰略競爭 2020 年代到 2010 年代，由於對中國貿易行為的擔憂，中美關係變得越來越緊張，特別是對知識產權盜竊和強製技術轉讓的指控，美國指責中國強迫在其境內運營的美國公司與當地合作夥伴分享專有技術，作為市場準入的先決條件，這些做法被視為破壞了公平競爭並損害了美國企業的利益，作為回應，特朗普政府於 2018 年發起了一場貿易戰，對價值約 2500 億美元的中國進口產品征收關稅，中國以針對美國商品的關稅進行報複，導致全球供應鏈中斷，增加兩國企業和消費者的成本，為了解決這些問題，兩國於 2020 年 1 月 15 日簽署了第一階段貿易協議，該協議要求中國在以下領域實施結構性改革：如在財產保護和技術轉讓方麵，此外，中國承諾在兩年內增加對美國商品和服務的購買量 2000 億美元，盡管做出了這些承諾，但該協議仍留下了一些尚未解決的關鍵問題，包括中國的產業政策、國有企業的作用和網絡安全問題，此外，中國的實際購買量未達到協議中設定的目標，部分原因是 covid-19 大流行對經濟的影響。 2021 年中美貿易趨勢 2024 年中美貿易關係近年來經曆了顯著波動。 2023 年美國對華出口額約為 478.1 億美元，反映了受持續爭端和中國努力實現進口來源多元化影響的複雜貿易環境。 2024 年的初步數據顯示，農業技術和能源等關鍵領域的貿易繼續下降，例如 10 月份美國對華原油出口2024 年從今年早些時候的 4 年低點反彈至約 130,000 桶/天，但這一數字仍遠低於 2023 年 259,000 桶/天的平均水平，突顯出中國燃料需求疲軟以及來自農業領域其他供應商的競爭加劇 美國出口在 2023 年也麵臨挑戰 中國進口了價值 340.5 億美元的美國農產品，比上年下降了 20%，這一下降歸因於中國進口來源的戰略多元化以及貿易緊張局勢的持續影響 現在讓我們來談談受貿易下滑影響的關鍵行業 農產品 中國已大幅減少對美國農產品進口的依賴，尤其是大豆和玉米，轉而轉向巴西等替代供應商 2024 年前兩個月中國從巴西進口的大豆同比激增 21%，達到 696 萬公噸，而從美國的進口量從去年同期的 971 萬噸下降至 496 萬噸。同樣，巴西已成為中國最大的玉米供應國，進一步減少了美國在該市場的份額。在貿易緊張局勢升級和美國出口管製的背景下，中國加大了在 2023 年支持國內半導體產業的力度。今年前 9 個月，中國半導體進口量同比下降 14.6%，總計 35590 億單位，低於 2022 年同期的 467 億單位。這一減少反映了中國致力於實現技術自給自足，減少對美國半導體進口金屬的依賴。隨著貿易商停止進口，預計中國廢銅進口量將大幅下降。在貿易緊張局勢不斷升級的情況下，美國是其主要供應商，在唐納德·特朗普總統的領導下，美國威脅要對中國進口產品征收 60% 的關稅，並額外征收 10% 的關稅，近期宣布的措施引發了人們對北京在今年前 10 個月可能采取報複措施的擔憂 中國進口報告數據，並可能導致銅價波動，以應對預期的短缺 北京已允許從 11 月 15 日起進口更多再生銅，旨在促進回收並減少對主要原材料的依賴 這項政策調整凸顯了中國為減輕貿易緊張局勢對其工業供應鏈的影響所做的努力 更廣泛的背景包括特朗普總統提名斯科特·貝森特為財政部長和詹姆森·格裏爾為美國貿易代表，預計他們兩人都將支持政府的激進關稅政策 這些事態發展加劇了市場不確定性，影響大宗商品市場和全球貿易動態 中國暫停進口美國廢銅，貿易緊張局勢升級，對美國經濟產生重大影響 廢銅曆來是美國的主要出口產品，中國是其最大買家 對華出口下降減少了美國廢料加工商和出口商的收入，近期貿易占總市場的近 20%，這一下降可能導致數百萬美元的收入損失 美國回收公司麵臨需求減少，導致庫存積壓和小型企業可能倒閉，無法找到替代市場 嚴重依賴出口的地區失業也是一個問題 能源 中國已實現液化天然氣進口多元化，越來越多地從澳大利亞、卡塔爾和俄羅斯等國家采購，從而減少了對美國能源出口的依賴 2024 年前 10 個月 中國從美國進口的液化天然氣比 2023 年同期增加了 63%，使美國成為中國第五大液化天然氣供應國 然而，中國與其他主要液化天然氣生產商的長期合同和戰略夥伴關係表明，中國有意采取措施確保從不同來源獲得能源供應，減少因過度依賴任何一個國家而可能產生的脆弱性。這些戰略轉變凸顯了中國為減輕地緣政治緊張局勢和貿易爭端相關風險所做的努力，旨在通過在關鍵行業實現進口多元化來增強經濟韌性。結論美國針對中國的關稅政策對美國經濟的損害大於對中國的影響，因為美國對中國進口產品征收了更高的關稅，導致國內消費者和企業的成本增加，供應鏈中斷，商品價格上漲。這些挑戰削弱了美國工業的競爭力，特別是製造業，麵臨著更高的投入成本、失業和投資減少。中國通過實現進口來源多元化和擴大與其他國家的貿易關係，戰略性地減少了美國商品的進口，對農業等行業產生了重大影響。中國減輕了對美國產品的依賴，緩解了其經濟受到關稅的影響，而依賴中國需求的美國出口商，如大豆和玉米生產商，則處於弱勢，突顯了貿易戰不均衡的負擔，而不是振興美國工業或減少貿易逆差，關稅將進口轉移到其他國家，而沒有促進國內生產，這一政策暴露了美國經濟在相互關聯的全球貿易體係中的脆弱性，強調保護主義措施往往會帶來意想不到的後果，超過其預期的好處，中美關係持續緊張，凸顯了製定更平衡和合作的貿易戰略的必要性，這就是這段視頻的全部內容，
following Donald Trump's reelection as
US president discussions have
intensified around potential shifts in
American trade policies among the most
debated proposals is Trump's plan to
impose sweeping tariffs on Imports with
a strong focus on goods from China such
measures are anticipated to exacerbate
already strained trade relations between
the two Nations while the details of
these policies remain unclear a
significant decline in us China trade
over recent years has already posed
considerable challenges for American
businesses reliant on the Chinese market
China has deliberately reduced its
imports from the United States as part
of a broader effort to diversify its
supplier base and decrease dependency on
American Goods this strategy has had a
pronounced impact on key us Industries
over the past three years trade volumes
between the two countries have dropped
significantly in a very recent move
China has also stopped buying copper
scrap from the US supplier this video
highlights four major sect particularly
affected by the reduction in China's
imports from the United States before
exploring these industries in detail it
is crucial to review the historical
trajectory of us China
relations the relationship between the
United States and China spans more than
two centuries characterized by
alternating periods of collaboration
competition and conflict this overview
outlines key developments in their
geopolitical and economic interactions
the United States in initiated direct
trade with China on February 22nd 1784
when the merchant ship Empress of China
departed from New York Harbor marking
the nation's entry into the lucrative
China trade The Vessel also known as the
Chinese queen was a three-masted square
rigged ship of 360 tons initially built
in 1783 for service as a privateer after
the Treaty of Paris formally ended the
American Revolutionary War the ship was
refitted for commercial purposes the
empress of China carried a diverse cargo
including 30 tons of jinang which was
highly valued in China for its medicinal
properties the ship's Captain John Green
was a former US Naval officer and the
business agents or super caros Samuel
Shaw and Thomas Randall were former
officers in the US continental army The
Syndicate of owners included some of the
wealthiest men in the new nation such as
Robert Morris the ship arrived in Canton
modernday Guang Joo in August 17 884
where the cargo was exchanged for
Chinese Goods like tea silk and Porcelain the Empress of China returned to New York on May 11th 1785 after a voyage of 14 months and 24
days the success of this journey
encouraged other American Merchants to
pursue trade with China leading to the
era known as the old China trade
throughout the 19th century the US
expanded its commercial presence in
China however tensions arose during this
period notably during the Opium Wars
1839 to 1860 although the United States
did not militarily participate in these
conflicts it benefited from their
outcomes in 1844 the Treaty of wangia
was signed representing the first formal
agreement between the US and China this
treaty granted the US most favored
nation status ensuring equal privileges
with other Western Nations it also
provided extr territorial rights
allowing US citizens in China to be
tried under American American laws
rather than Chinese jurisdiction the
Treaty of wangia opened new
opportunities for American economic
interests and missionary activities in
China granting access to five Chinese
ports for trade and enabling Americans
to buy land and establish churches and
hospitals the treaty also removed
restrictions that previously prevented
foreigners from learning the Chinese
language fostering greater cultural and
Commercial exchanges during World War II the United
States significantly bolstered China's
resistance against Japanese aggression
through military aid financial support
and the deployment of personnel notably
the Flying Tigers this group officially
known as the first American volunteer
group AVG of the Chinese Air Force was
formed in 1941 under the leadership of
Clare l shano a retired US Army aircore
Captain comprising Pilots recruited from
the US military branches the AVG was
tasked with defending China and Burma
now Myanmar against Japanese forces
their distinctive sharkface Curtis P40
Warhawk aircraft became emblematic of
their daring missions the Flying Tigers
achieved their first combat Victory on
December 20th 1941 Downing nine out of
10 Japanese bombers attacking Kunming
marking a significant morale boost for
both American and Chinese forces
following Japan's surrender in 1945 the
Chinese civil war between the Nationalist Quan tang kmt and the Communist Party of China CPC resumed
despite us support for the kmt including
military aid and advisory assistance the
CPC led by Mao zong gained the upper
hand by October 1st 1949 Mao proclaimed
the establishment of the People's
Republic of China PRC on the mainland
while the kmt under Chang Kai Sheek
retreate d to Taiwan continuing to assert
itself as the Republic of China Roc in
the ensuing years the United States
grappled with its China policy amid the
broader context of the Cold War and the
strategy of containing communism
initially the US maintained formal
diplomatic recognition of The Roc in
Taiwan as the legitimate government of
all China refusing to acknowledge the
PRC this stance was influenced by
geopolitical considerations and the
desire to support non-communist regimes
the US provided economic and Military
assistance to Taiwan reinforcing its
position against potential PRC
aggression
this policy persisted until the 1970s
when shifts in international relations
led to the eventual normalization of
uspc
relations Cold War period from 1949 to
1971 in the early stages of the Cold War
the United States implemented policies
to isolate communist Nations including
the People's Republic of China this
strategy involved comprehensive trade
embargos that restricted the export of
strategic materials and Technology to
China aiming to its economic and
political influence the United States
maintained a unilateral embargo until
1969 when the Nixon Administration
lifted restrictions on most trade to
China except for strategically important
goods tensions between the United States
and China escalated during the Korean
war from 1950 to 1953 as both Nations
supported opposing sides in the conflict
this direct military confrontation
deepened hostilities and solidified
divisions between the two countries
throughout the 1950s and 60s trade
restrictions remained in place however
by the early 1970s geopolitical shifts
prompted the United States to pursue a
policy of daytont leading to improved
relations in April 1971 the United
States lifted its trade embargo with
China which had been in place since the
start of the Korean War this policy
shift culminated in president Richard
Nixon's historic visit to China in 1972
marking a significant step toward
normalizing diplomatic relations between
the two
Nations Repro Mon and normalization from
1971 to
1979 the 1970s marked a pivotal shift in
United States China relations beginning
with President Richard Nixon's
groundbreaking visit to the People's
Republic of China in February
1972 this visit the first by a sitting
United States president to the PRC
initiated a thaw in bilateral relations
after Decades of estrangement during the
the visit President Nixon met with
Chairman Mao zidong and Premier Joe en
Li engaging in discussions that
culminated in the issuance of the
Shanghai communic on February 27th
1972 this joint statement outlined a
framework for future cooperation
acknowledging existing differences
particularly concerning Taiwan while
expressing a mutual desire to work
toward normalization of relations a
significant development occurred on
December 15th 1978 when President Jimmy
Carter announced that the United States
would formally recognize the PRC
effective January 1st
1979 this decision entailed severing
official diplomatic ties with the
Republic of China Taiwan and
acknowledging the government in Beijing
as the sole legal government of China
however to maintain substantive
relations with Taiwan the United States
Congress enacted the Taiwan relations
act on April 10th
1979 the TR established a legal
framework for unofficial relations
facilitating continued economic and
cultural exchanges and authorizing the
provision of defensive arms to Taiwan
this act aimed to preserve peace
security and stability in the Western
Pacific reflecting the United States
commitment to Taiwan security despite
the absence of formal diplomatic ties
these diplomatic Maneuvers in the 1970s
laid the groundwork for the complex and
multifaceted relationship between the
United States and China that persists
today balancing cooperation and
competition across various
domains let's take a quick pause if
you've enjoyed the video so far could we
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thank you for watching now let's dive
back
in economic engagement from the 1980s to
the 2000s in the late 1970s under the
leadership of dung Xiao ping China in
initiated a series of Market oriented
reforms that transformed its economy
these reforms included the
decollectivization of Agriculture the
opening of the country to foreign
investment and the privatization of
state-owned Enterprises the first stage
in the late 1970s and early 1980s
involved the decollectivization of
Agriculture the opening up of the
country to foreign investment and
permission for entrepreneurs to start
businesses the second stage in the late
1980s and 1990s involved the
privatization and Contracting out of
much state-owned industry these reforms
created significant opportunities for
foreign investment and American
businesses were quick to capitalize on
China's vast labor force and emerging
consumer Market this led to a surge in
bilateral trade with United States companies establishing manufacturing operations in China to take advantage of
lower production costs and to access the
growing Chinese market a pivotal moment
in United States China economic
relations occurred in 2001 when China
joined the World Trade Organization this
accession required China to implement
significant trade liberalization
measures including reducing tariffs
eliminating trade barriers and opening
various sectors to foreign competition
as a result trade between the two
Nations expanded rapidly by
2019 trade in goods between the United
States and China had increased from less
than $100 billion in 1999 to $558
billion
China's accession to the WTO also had a
profound impact on its domestic economy
it accelerated China's integration into
the global economy leading to
unprecedented economic growth and
lifting hundreds of millions of people
out of poverty however it also presented
challenges including increased
competition for domestic Industries and
the need for significant legal and
Regulatory reforms to comply with WTO
rules strategic competition 20 0 S
2020s by the 2010s US China relations
became increasingly strained due to
concerns over China's Trade Practices
particularly allegations of intellectual
property theft and enforced technology
transfers the US accused China of
compelling American companies operating
within its borders to share proprietary
Technologies with local Partners as a
prerequisite for Market access these
practices were perceived as undermining
Fair competition and disadvantaging us
businesses in response the Trump
Administration initiated a trade war in
2018 imposing tariffs on approximately
$250 billion worth of Chinese Imports
China retaliated with tariffs targeting
us Goods leading to disruptions in
Global Supply chains and increased costs
for businesses and consumers in both
Nations to address these issues the two
countries signed the phase 1 trade
agreement on January 15 2020 this deal
required China to implement structural
reforms in areas such as in ual property
protection and Technology transfer
additionally China committed to increasing its purchases of us goods and services by 200 billion dollars over two
years despite these commitments the
agreement left several critical issues
unresolved including China's industrial
policies the role of state-owned Enterprises and cyber security concerns moreover China's actual purchases fell
short of the target set in the agreement
partly due to the economic impact of the
covid-19 pandemic recent Trends in us China trade 2021
2024 trade relations between the United
States and China have experienced
notable fluctuations in recent years in
2023 US exports to China amounted to
approximately
$47.81 billion reflecting a complex
trade environment influenced by ongoing
disputes and China's efforts to
diversify its import sources preliminary
data for 2024 indicates continued de
lines in key sectors including
agriculture technology and energy for
instance us crude oil exports to China
in October 2024 rebounded to around
130,000 barrels per day from a 4-year
low earlier in the year however this
figure remains significantly below the
2023 average of 259,000 barrels per day
highlighting weak Chinese fuel demand
and increased competition from other
suppliers in the agricultural sector us
export have also faced challenges in
2023 China imported
$34.05 billion worth of us agricultural
products marking a 20% decrease from the
previous year this decline is attributed
to China's strategic diversification of
its import sources and the lingering
effects of trade
tensions let's now talk about the key
sectors affected by declining trade
agricultural products China has
substantially reduced its dependence on
us agricultural Imports notably soybeans
and corn by turning to Alternative
suppliers such as Brazil in the first
two months of 2024 China's soybean
imports from Brazil surged 21% year
on-year reaching 6.96 million metric
tons while imports from the US decreased
to 4.96 million tons from 9.71 million
tons in the same period the previous
year similarly Brazil has become China's
leading corn supplier for further
diminishing the US share in this
market technology and electronics amid
escalating trade tensions and US export
controls China has intensified efforts
to bolster its domestic semiconductor
industry in 2023 China's semiconductor
Imports declined by
14.6% year- on-year in the first 9
months totaling
3559 billion units down from
46.7 billion in the same period in 202 2
this reduction reflects China's
commitment to achieving technological
self-sufficiency and reducing Reliance
on us semiconductor
Imports Metals China's Imports of scrap
copper are anticipated to decline
significantly as Traders halt purchases
from the United States its primary
supplier amid escalating trade tensions
under President Donald Trump's
Administration the US has threatened to
impose a 60% tariff on Chinese Imports
with an additional 10% tariff. announced recently prompting concerns over
potential retaliatory measures from Beijing in the first 10 months of the year China imported report data and could contribute to copper price volatility in response to
the anticipated shortfall Beijing has
allowed more recycled copper Imports
starting November 15th aiming to promote
Recycling and reduce dependence on
primary raw materials this policy
adjustment underscores China's efforts
to mitigate the impact of trade tensions
on its Industrial Supply chains the
broader context includes president
Trump's nomination of Scott bessent as
treasury secretary and Jameson Greer as
us trade representative both both of
whom are expected to support the
administration's aggressive tariff
policies these developments have
heightened Market uncertainty
influencing commodity markets and global
trade Dynamics the suspension of us
scrap copper Imports by China driven by
escalating trade tensions carries
significant implications for the US
economy scrap copper has historically
been a major export for the US with
China as its largest buyer a decline in
exports to China reduces revenue for
American Scrap processors and exporters
with recent trade accounting for nearly
20% of the total Market this drop could
result in millions of dollars in Lost
income us recycling firms face reduced
demand leading to inventory buildups and
potential closures of smaller businesses
unable to find alternative markets job
losses in regions heavily reliant on
exports are also a
concern energy China has Diversified its
liquefied natural gas Imports
increasingly sourcing from countries
like Australia Qatar and Russia thereby
decreasing its dependence on US Energy
exports in the first 10 months of 2024
China imported 63% more LNG from the US
compared to the same period in 2023
positioning the us as China's fifth
largest LNG supplier however China's
long-term contracts and strategic
Partnerships with other major LNG
producers indicate a deliberate move to
secure energy supplies from diverse
sources reducing potential
vulnerabilities associated with
overreliance on any single country these
strategic shifts underscore China's
efforts to mitigate risks associated
with geopolitical tensions and trade
disputes aiming to enhance economic
resilience by diversifying its import
portfolio across critical
sectors conclusion the US tariff
policies targeting China have
inadvertently harmed the American
economy more than they have impacted
China by imposing higher tariffs on
Chinese Imports the US has triggered
increased costs for domestic consumers
and businesses disrupting Supply chains
and raising prices for goods these
challenges have undermined the
competitiveness of American Industries
particularly manufacturing which has
faced higher input costs job losses and
reduced investment in response China has
strategically reduced Imports of us
Goods significantly impacting sectors
like agriculture by diversifying its
import sources and expanding trade
relationships with other nations China
has mitigated its Reliance on us
products cushioning its economy against
the tariffs meanwhile us exporters
reliant on Chinese demand such as
soybean and corn producers have been
left vulnerable highlighting the uneven
burden of the trade War rather than
revitalizing us Industries or reducing
the trade deficit the tariffs have
shifted Imports to other countries
without boosting domestic production
this policy has exposed the
vulnerabilities of the US economy in an
interconnected global trade system
emphasizing that protectionist measures
often carry unintended consequences that
outweigh their intended benefits the
ongoing strain on us China relations
underscores the need for a more balanced
and Cooperative trade
strategy
