風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
亞洲世紀
摘自維基百科，自由百科全書
中國和印度是世界上人口最多的兩個國家，預計兩國經濟將快速增長。
“亞洲世紀”是指預計在21世紀，亞洲政治和文化將占據主導地位，前提是某些人口和經濟趨勢將持續下去。“亞洲世紀”的概念與19世紀被稱為英國的帝國世紀，20世紀被稱為美國世紀的概念相似。
亞洲開發銀行2011年的一項研究發現，30億亞洲人（即到2050年占亞洲預計53億總人口的56.6%）可以享受與當今歐洲相似的生活水平，到本世紀中葉，亞洲地區可能占全球產出的一半以上。[1]
一些人認為，亞洲日益重視團結，以及地區國家之間日益成熟和進步的關係，將進一步鞏固21世紀亞洲世紀的創建。[2][3][4][5][6][7] 然而，中印關係的惡化，使得建立和平與合作的亞洲世界秩序的希望渺茫。[8][9][10]
起源
1924年，卡爾·豪斯霍弗（Karl Haushofer）提出了“太平洋時代”這一術語，他設想了日本、中國和印度的崛起：“一個巨大的空間正在我們眼前擴張，各種力量湧入其中……等待著太平洋時代的到來，它將取代大西洋時代、地中海時代和歐洲時代。”[11] “亞洲世紀”這一說法出現於20世紀80年代中後期，源於1988年鄧小平與印度總理拉吉夫·甘地會晤時，鄧小平表示：“近年來，人們總說下個世紀是亞太的世紀，好像這是板上釘釘的事。我不同意這種觀點。”[12] 在此之前，該說法曾在1985年美國參議院外交關係委員會的一次聽證會上出現。[13] 此後，亞洲政治領導人再次肯定了這一說法，如今已成為媒體上一個常用的術語。
理由
2010年之前三十年，亞洲經濟表現強勁，遠超世界其他地區，這或許是迄今為止最有力的證據，表明亞洲世紀即將到來。盡管這種經濟表現的差異已被人們認識到，但個別國家的挫折（例如1997年亞洲金融危機）往往掩蓋了其廣泛的影響和總體趨勢。然而，到了21世紀初，我們有充分的理由證明，亞洲強勁的表現不僅是可持續的，而且其力量和規模足以顯著改變全球權力的分配。隨之而來的是，在一係列重要領域——國際外交、軍事實力、科技和軟實力——的全球領導地位，也可能被一個或多個亞洲民族國家所取代。
許多學者都提出了促成亞洲顯著發展的因素，其中，馬凱碩提出了七大支柱，這些支柱使亞洲國家脫穎而出，並使其能夠與西方國家兼容並包。這七大支柱包括：自由市場經濟、科學技術、精英管理、務實主義、和平文化、法治和教育。[14]
約翰·韋斯特教授在其著作《亞洲世紀……處於刀鋒邊緣》[15]中指出：
“在21世紀，印度很可能成為亞洲的領軍力量。印度的經濟增長速度已經超過中國，除非中國認真進行經濟改革，否則這一趨勢可能會持續下去。此外，根據聯合國的數據，印度人口將在2022年超過中國，到2100年可能比中國多出約50%”[16]。
2019年，聖安德魯斯大學亞洲安全講師克裏斯·奧格登教授撰文指出：“盡管亞洲在人均收入和基礎設施方麵仍相對落後，但隨著這些財富轉化為軍事、政治和製度影響力（通過聯合國和新成立的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行等機構），亞洲兩大強國將獲得結構性中心地位和重要性，使其成為全球關鍵力量。預期人口和敢於發聲的領導人正在加速並鞏固這種關鍵地位，並且——如果環境汙染和腐敗等生存問題能夠得到克服——預示著以亞洲為中心、以中國/印度為中心的世界秩序的出現，這將成為未來數十年國際事務的重要基礎。”[17]
人口統計
更多信息：世界人口
預計亞洲人口增長將至少持續到21世紀上半葉，盡管自20世紀末以來，其增長速度已顯著放緩。 21 世紀初，亞洲人口已達 40 億，
預計到2050年將增長到50多億。[18] 雖然其占世界人口的比例預計不會發生太大變化，但北美和歐洲在全球人口中的占比預計將下降。[19]
經濟學
根據安格斯·麥迪遜的估計，公元1年至2003年主要經濟體對世界GDP的貢獻。[20] 18世紀之前，中國和印度是GDP產出最大的兩個經濟體。
主條目：亞洲經濟
更多信息：新開發銀行、亞洲基礎設施投資銀行和亞洲開發銀行
預計到2050年各地區占全球GDP的比重[21]
上海南京路是世界上最繁忙的商業街之一，是中國大陸經濟增長及其龐大消費群體的典範。
印度3億中產階級人口正以每年5%的速度增長。[22] 圖中顯示的是孟買南部的一個高檔住宅區。
主要驅動力是亞洲（尤其是中國和印度）生產力的持續增長，以及生活水平的提高。即使生活水平沒有完全趕上歐洲或北美，到2050年，亞洲也可能貢獻全球GDP的一半。與冷戰剛結束時相比，這是一個巨大的轉變，當時北美和歐洲合計貢獻了全球GDP的一半。[23]亞洲開發銀行2011年的一項研究指出：“到2050年，亞洲在全球GDP中的占比將幾乎翻一番，達到52%，這將重拾其約300年前的主導經濟地位。”[24]
“亞洲世紀”的概念假設亞洲經濟體能夠在未來40年保持增長勢頭，適應不斷變化的全球經濟和技術環境，並不斷重塑比較優勢。在此情景下，根據亞洲開發銀行2011年的模型，亞洲的GDP將從2010年的17萬億美元增長到2050年的174萬億美元，占全球GDP的一半。在同一研究中，亞洲開發銀行估計，七個經濟體（中國、印度、印度尼西亞、日本、韓國、泰國、馬來西亞）將引領亞洲強勁的增長；在“亞洲世紀”的情景下，該地區將沒有貧窮國家，而2011年該地區有八個貧窮國家。[25]
自20世紀末中國實施經濟改革以來從20世紀70年代（農場私有化）到20世紀90年代初（大多數城市），中國經濟經曆了三十年8%至10%的增長率。[26] 印度經濟在20世紀80年代末和90年代初也開始了類似的增長，盡管速度較慢，在此期間平均增長率約為4%，2005年略高於8%，2006年達到9.2%，之後在2009年放緩至6%，[27] 2010年達到8.9%。[28]
這兩項發展都涉及一定程度的經濟管理自由化政策，以及經濟向全球化（包括出口和吸引外來投資）的轉型。這種自由化和全球化的程度仍有待商榷。它們是主要政治領導人（尤其是在印度和中國）有意識決策的一部分。此外，兩國人口規模超過22億，構成了潛在市場。[29] 兩國國內消費市場的發展一直是經濟發展的重要基礎。這使得中國和印度的國民經濟增長率遠高於日本、歐盟甚至美國。[30] 基於廉價勞動力成本的國際商品和服務成本優勢，使這兩個國家能夠在全球範圍內施加競爭壓力。[31]
“東方化”一詞指的是東方（主要是日本）管理技術向西方的傳播。[32][33][34][35]
亞洲經濟主導地位增強的趨勢也基於對近期曆史經濟趨勢的推斷。高盛在其金磚四國經濟預測中強調，到2050年，中國大陸將成為GDP最大的經濟體，印度將成為GDP第二大的經濟體。該報告還預測了各國將主導的產業類型，導致一些人認為中國大陸是“世界工業工廠”，而印度是“偉大的服務業社會之一”。[36] 截至2009年，大多數被認為是新興工業化國家的國家都位於亞洲。
到2050年，東亞和南亞的經濟將增長20多倍。[37] 隨之而來的是人類發展指數（用於衡量生活水平的指數）的上升。印度的人類發展指數將接近0.8。東亞的人類發展指數將接近0.94，或相當接近歐盟和美國等西方國家的生活水平。這意味著很難確定兩者之間的貧富差距。由於東亞和印度的人口數量龐大，他們的經濟規模將非常龐大，如果目前的趨勢持續下去，印度的長期人口可能會接近兩倍。這與中國的經濟規模相當。東亞最早可能在2030年超過所有西方國家的經濟總和。如果南亞數億貧困人口能夠繼續躋身中產階級，那麽南亞可能很快就會趕上中國。
The Asian Century is the projected 21st-century dominance of Asian politics and culture, assuming certain demographic and economic trends persist. The concept of Asian Century parallels the characterisation of the 19th century as Britain's Imperial Century, and the 20th century as the American Century.
A 2011 study by the Asian Development Bank found that 3 billion Asians (so 56.6% of the estimated 5.3 billion total inhabitants of Asia by 2050) could enjoy living standards similar to those in Europe today, and the region could account for over half of global output by the middle of this century.[1]
Some argue that Asia's growing emphasis on solidarity, as well as maturing and progressive relationships among countries in the region, will further underpin the creation of the 21st Asian Century.[2][3][4][5][6][7] However, the worsening relations between China and India make hopes for a peaceful and cooperative Asian world order seem unlikely.[8][9][10]
Origin
In 1924, Karl Haushofer used the term "Pacific age," envisaging the growth of Japan, China and India: "A giant space is expanding before our eyes with forces pouring into it which ... await the dawn of the Pacific age, the successor of the Atlantic age, the over-age Mediterranean and European era."[11] The phrase Asian Century arose in the mid to late 1980s, and is attributed to a 1988 meeting with Paramount leader Deng Xiaoping of China and Prime minister Rajiv Gandhi of India in which Deng said that '[i]n recent years people have been saying that the next century will be the century of Asia and the Pacific, as if that were sure to be the case. I disagree with this view.'[12] Prior to this, it made an appearance in a 1985 US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing.[13] It has been subsequently reaffirmed by Asian political leaders, and is now a popularly used term in the media.
Reasons
[edit]Asia's robust economic performance over the three decades preceding 2010, compared to that in the rest of the world, made perhaps the strongest case yet for the possibility of an Asian Century. Although this difference in economic performance had been recognised for some time, specific individual setbacks (e.g., the 1997 Asian financial crisis) tended to hide the broad sweep and general tendency. By the early 21st century, however, a strong case could be made that this stronger Asian performance was not just sustainable but held a force and magnitude that could significantly alter the distribution of power on the planet. Coming in its wake, global leadership in a range of significant areas—international diplomacy, military strength, technology, and soft power—might also, as a consequence, be assumed by one or more of Asia's nation states.
Among many scholars have provided factors that have contributed to the significant Asian development, Kishore Mahbubani provides seven pillars that rendered the Asian countries to excel and provided themselves with the possibility to become compatible with the Western counterparts. The seven pillars include: free-market economics, science and technology, meritocracy, pragmatism, culture of peace, rule of law and education.[14]
Professor John West in his book 'Asian Century … on a Knife-edge'[15] argues:
"Over the course of the twenty-first century, India could well emerge as Asia’s leading power. Already, India’s economy is growing faster than China’s, a trend which could continue, unless China gets serious about economic reform. Further, India’s population will overtake China’s in 2022 and could be some 50% higher by 2100, according to the UN"[16].
In 2019 professor Chris Ogden, a Lecturer in Asian Security at the University of St Andrews, wrote that, "Although still behind relatively in terms of income per capita and infrastructure, as this wealth is translated into military, political, and institutional influence (via bodies such as the United Nations and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), Asia’s two largest powers will gain a structural centrality and importance that will make them critical global lynchpins. Expectant populations and vocal leaders are accelerating and underpinning this criticality, and—if the existential issues of environmental pollution and corruption can be overcome—herald the emergence of an Asian-centric, and China / India-centric, world order that will form of the essential basis of international affairs for many decades to come."[17]
Demographics
[edit]Population growth in Asia is expected to continue through at least the first half of the 21st century, though it has slowed significantly since the late 20th century. At four billion people in the beginning of the 21st century, the Asian population is predicted to grow to more than five billion by 2050.[18] While its percent of the world population is not expected to greatly change, North American and European shares of the global population are expected to decline.[19]
Economics
[edit]
The major driver is continued productivity growth in Asia, particularly in China and India, as living standards rise. Even without completely converging with European or North American living standards, Asia might produce half of the global GDP by 2050. This is a large shift compared to the immediate post-cold war, when North America and Europe combined produced half of the global GDP.[23] A 2011 study by the Asian Development Bank stated that: "By nearly doubling its share of global gross domestic product (GDP) to 52 percent by 2050, Asia would regain the dominant economic position it held some 300 years ago.[24]
The notion of the Asian Century assumes that Asian economies can maintain their momentum for another 40 years, adapt to shifting global economic and technological environment, and continually recreate comparative advantages. In this scenario, according to 2011 modelling by the Asian Development Bank Asia's GDP would increase from $17 trillion in 2010 to $174 trillion in 2050, or half of global GDP. In the same study, the Asian Development Bank estimates that seven economies (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia) would lead Asia's powerhouse growth; under the Asian Century scenario, the region would have no poor countries, compared with eight in 2011.[25]
Since China's economic reforms in the late 1970s (in farm privatisation) and early 1990s (in most cities), the Chinese economy has enjoyed three decades of economic growth rates between 8 and 10%.[26] The Indian economy began a similar albeit slower ascent at the end of the 1980s and early 1990s, and has averaged around 4% during this period, though growing slightly over 8% in 2005, and hitting 9.2% in 2006 before slowing to 6% in 2009,[27] then reaching 8.9% in 2010.[28]
Both of these developments involved policy of a degree of managed liberalisation of the economy as well as a turning outwards of the economy towards globalisation (both exports and attracting inward investment). The magnitude of this liberalisation and globalisation is still subject to debate. They were part of conscious decisions by key political leaders, especially in India and the PRC. Also, the populations of the two countries offer a potential market of over two and a quarter billion.[29] The development of the internal consumer market in these two countries has been a major basis for economic development. This has enabled much higher national growth rates for China and India in comparison to Japan, the EU and even the US.[30] The international cost advantage on goods and services, based on cheaper labour costs, has enabled these two countries to exert a global competitive pressure.[31]
The term Easternization has been used to refer to the spread of oriental (mainly Japanese) management techniques to the West.[32][33][34][35]
The trend for greater Asian economic dominance has also been based on the extrapolations of recent historic economic trends. Goldman Sachs, in its BRIC economic forecast, highlighted the trend towards mainland China becoming the largest and India the second largest economies by the year 2050 in terms of GDP. The report also predicted the type of industry that each nation would dominate, leading some to deem mainland China 'the industrial workshop of the world' and India 'one of the great service societies'.[36] As of 2009, the majority of the countries that are considered newly industrialized are in Asia.
By 2050, the East Asian and South Asian economies will have increased by over 20 times.[37] With that comes a rise in Human Development Index, the index used to measure the standards of living. India's HDI will approach .8. East Asia's would approach .94 or fairly close to the living standards of the western nations such as the EU and the US. This would mean that it would be rather difficult to determine the difference in wealth of the two. Because of East Asian and Indian populations, their economy would be very large, and if current trends continue, India's long-term population could approach double that of China. East Asia could surpass all western nations' combined economies as early as 2030. South Asia could soon follow if the hundreds of millions in poverty continue to be lifted into middle class.
Construction projects
[edit]
It is projected that the most groundbreaking construction projects will take place in Asia within the approaching years. As a symbol of economic power, supertall skyscrapers have been erected in Asia, and more projects are currently being conceived and begun in Asia than in any other region of the world. Completed projects include: the Petronas Towers of Kuala Lumpur, the Shanghai World Financial Center, International Finance Centre in Hong Kong, Taipei 101 in Taiwan, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE, and the Shanghai Tower. Future buildings promise to be taller, such as the PNB 118 in Kuala Lumpur and Legacy Tower in Dhaka.
Culture
[edit]  | The examples and perspective in this section deal primarily with Western culture and do not represent a worldwide view of the subject. You may improve this section, discuss the issue on the talk page, or create a new section, as appropriate. (January 2020) (Learn how and when to remove this message) |
Culturally, the Asian century is symbolised by Indian genre films (Bollywood, Parallel Cinema), Hong Kong genre films (martial arts films, Hong Kong action cinema), Japanese popular culture, and the Korean Wave. The awareness of Asian cultures may be a part of a much more culturally aware world, as proposed in the Clash of Civilizations thesis. Equally, the affirmation of Asian cultures affects the identity politics of Asians in Asia and outside in the Asian diasporas.[38]
The Gross National Cool of Japan is soaring; Japanese cultural products, including TV shows, are undoubtedly "in" among American audiences and have been for years.[39] The worldwide spread of Japanese pop culture, particularly, Anime,[40][41] Manga[42] and Video games[43] has led to Japan being dubbed a Cultural Superpower alongside countries such as the United States and Italy.[44][45][46] About 2.3 million people studied the Japanese language worldwide in 2003: 900,000 South Koreans, 389,000 Chinese, 381,000 Australians, and 140,000 Americans study Japanese in lower and higher educational institutions.
Feng shui books topped the nonfiction best-seller lists and feng shui schools have multiplied. Major banks and multinational corporations employ feng shui consultants to advise them on the organisation of their offices. There has been a readiness to supplement Eastern forms of medicine, therapy, and massage and reject traditional Western medicine in favor of techniques, such as acupressure and acupuncture. Practices such as moxibustion and shiatsu enjoy enormous popularity in the West.[47] So do virtually all the Eastern martial arts, such as kung fu, judo, karate, aikido, taekwondo, kendo, jujitsu, tai chi, qigong, ba gua, and xing yi, with their many associated schools and subforms.[48]
Asian cuisine is quite popular in the West due to Asian immigration and subsequent interest from non-Asians into Asian ingredients and food. Even small towns in Britain, Canada, Scandinavia, or the United States generally have at least one Indian or Chinese restaurant.[49] Restaurants serving pan-Asian and Asian-inspired cuisine have also opened across North America, Australia and other parts of the world. P.F. Chang's China Bistro and Pei Wei Asian Diner which serve Asian and Asian-inspired food is found across the United States and in regards for the former, in other parts of the world as well.[50][51] Asian-inspired food products have also been launched including from noodle brand, Maggi. In Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and the UK an Asian-inspired range of noodles known as Maggi Fusian and a long running range in Germany and Austria known as, Maggi Magic Asia includes a range of noodles inspired by food dishes found in China, Japan, Korea, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand.[52][53]
Yoga has gained popularity outside India and the rest of Asia and has entered mainstream culture in the Western world.[54] International Day of Yoga is now celebrated across the world annually on June 21 since 2015, following its inception in the United Nations General Assembly in 2014.[55]
Though the use of English continues to spread, Asian languages are becoming more popular to teach and study outside the continent. The study of Chinese has recently gained greater attention in the United States, owing to a growing belief in the economic advantages of knowing it.[56] It is being encouraged through the PRC's support of Confucius Institutes, which have opened in numerous nations to teach the Chinese language and culture.[57]
Chinese has been rated as the second most used language on the internet with nearly a quarter speaking Chinese, Japanese came as fourth, and Korean as the tenth as of 2010.[58] According to the CIA, China hosted the most users, India the third, Japan the sixth, and Indonesia as the tenth as of 2020.[59]
India has the largest film industry in the world,[60] and Indian Film Industry produces more films than Nollywood and Hollywood.
In the early years of the twentieth century very few people were vegetarians. The figure given for the United Kingdom during World War 2 was 100,000 out of a population of some 50 million – around 0.2 per cent of the total. By the 1990s the figure was estimated as between 4.2 percent and 11 percent of the British population and rising rapidly.[61] As Porritt and Winner observe, as recently as the 1960s and early '70s, "being a vegetarian was considered distinctively odd," but "it is now both respectable and common place."[62][63]
The spread of the Korean wave, particularly K-pop and Korean dramas, outside Asia has led to the establishment of services to sustain this demand. Viki and DramaFever are examples of services providing Korean dramas to international viewers alongside other Asian content.[64][65] SBS PopAsia and Asian Pop Radio are two radio-related music services propagating the proliferation of K-pop throughout Australia. Apart from K-pop, Asian Pop Radio is also devoted to other Asian pop music originating from Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.[66] Similarly, SBS PopAsia focuses on other East Asian pop music from China and Japan and to some extent Southeast Asian pop music in conjunction with K-pop. The rising popularity of Asian-related content has resulted in "SBS PopAsia" becoming a brand name for SBS content such as TV shows and news originating from Asia such as China, South Korea, Japan and India.[67]
The growing awareness and popularity of Eastern culture and philosophies in the West has led to Eastern cultural objects being sold in these countries. The most well known being statues of the Buddha which range from statues sold for the garden to items sold for the house. Statues of Hindu gods such as Ganesha and East Asian iconography such as the Yin and yang are also sold in many stores in Western countries. Ishka a chain store in Australia sells many Asian-origin content particularly from India. The selling of Eastern cultural objects has however been met by criticism, with some saying many who buy these items do not understand the significance of them and that it is a form of Orientalism.[68]
Religion
[edit]As recently as the 1950s, Crane Brinton, the distinguished historian of ideas, could dismiss "modern groups that appeal to Eastern wisdom" as being in effect "sectarian", "marginal", and "outside the main current of Western thought and feeling".[69] Yet some Westerners have converted to Eastern religions or at least have shown an interest in them. An example is Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, whom the Beatles followed, first to Bangor in Wales in 1967, and subsequently to India to study Transcendental Meditation in 1968. The Dalai Lama, whose book The Art of Happiness became a best-seller, can attract huge crowds in New York's Central Park or London's Wembley Stadium.[70]
Buddhism in some countries is the second biggest religion.[71] FWBO is one of the biggest and fastest-growing Buddhist organisations in the West.[72]
Belief in reincarnation has never been a part of official Christian or Jewish teaching, or at least, in Christianity, it has been a formal heresy since it was rejected by a narrow margin at the Second Council of Constantinople in AD 553.[73] However nearly all polling in Western countries reveals significant levels of this belief. "Puzzled People" undertaken in the 1940s suggested that only 4 per cent of people in Britain believed in reincarnation. Geoffrey Gorer's survey, carried out a few years later, arrived at 5 percent (1955, p. 262). However, this figure had reached 18 percent by 1967 (Gallup, 1993), only to increase further to a sizeable 29 percent by 1979, a good six-fold increase on the earlier "Puzzled People" figure. Eileen Barker has reported that around one-fifth of Europeans now say that they believe in reincarnation.[74]
Karma, which has its roots in ancient India and is a key concept in Hinduism, Buddhism and other Eastern religions, has entered the cultural conscience of many in the Western world. John Lennon's 1970 single, "Instant Karma!" is credited towards the popularisation of karma in the Western world and is now a widely known and popular concept today giving rise to catchphrases and memes and figuring in other forms of Western popular culture.[75][76]
Mindfulness and Buddhist meditation, both very popular in Asia, have gained mainstream popularity in the West.[77][unreliable source?]
Politics
[edit]
The global political position of China and to a lesser extent India has risen in international bodies and amongst the world powers, leading the United States and European Union to become more active in the process of engagement with these two countries. China is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Although India is not a permanent member, it is possible that it will become one or at the least gain a more influential position.[78] Japan is also attempting to become a permanent member,[79] though the attempts of both are opposed by other Asian countries (i.e. India's bid is opposed by Pakistan; Japan's bid is opposed by China, South Korea, North Korea).[80]
An Asian regional bloc may be further developed in the 21st century around ASEAN and other bodies on the basis of free trade agreements.[81] However, there is some political concern amongst the national leaderships of different Asian countries about PRC's hegemonic ambitions in the region. Another new organization, the East Asian Summit, could also possibly create an EU-like trade zone.[82]
The Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov encouraged the idea of a triple alliance between Russia, the PRC and India first formulated by Indian strategist Madhav Das Nalapat in 1983,[83] and supported the idea of a multipolar world.[84]
Human Capital
[edit]The 2007 World Bank Report on globalization notes that "rising education levels were also important, boosting Asian growth on average by 0.75 to 2 percentage points."[85] The rapid expansion of human capital through quality education throughout Asia has played a significant role in experiencing "higher life expectancy and economic growth, and even to the quality of institutions and whether societies will make the transition into modern democracies".[86]
3G (Global Growth Generators)
[edit]The Asian countries with the most promising growth prospects are: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. Developing Asia is projected to be the fastest growing region until 2050, driven by population and income growth: 9 of 11 3G countries came from Asia.[87] Vietnam has the highest Global Growth Generators Index, China is second with 0.81, followed by India's 0.71.[88]
Based on a report from the HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) and HSBC Trade Forecast, there are 4 countries with significant trade volume growth – Egypt, India, Vietnam and Indonesia – with growth is projected to reach at least 7.3 per cent per year until 2025[89]
Next Eleven
[edit]The Next Eleven (known also by the numeronym N-11) are the eleven countries – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam – identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank and economist Jim O'Neill in a research paper as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on 12 December 2005. At the end of 2011, the four major countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) also known as MINT, made up 73 percent of all Next Eleven GDP. BRIC GDP was $13.5 trillion, while MIKT GDP at almost 30 percent of that: $3.9 trillion.[90]
Challenges to realising the Asian Century
[edit]Asia's growth is not guaranteed. Its leaders will have to manage multiple risks and challenges, particularly:
- Growing inequality within countries, in which wealth and opportunities are confined to the upper echelons. This could undermine social cohesion and stability.
- Many Asian countries will not be able to make the necessary investments in infrastructure, education and government policies that would help them avoid the Middle Income Trap.
- Intense competition for finite natural resources, such as land, water, fuel or food, as newly affluent Asians aspire to higher standards of living.
- Global warming and climate change, which could threaten agricultural production, coastal populations, and numerous major urban areas.
- Geopolitical rivalry between China and India.
- Rampant corruption, which plagues many Asian governments.[91]
- The direct impact of an ageing population on continuous economic development (e.g. declining labour force, change of consumption patterns, strain on public finances[92])
Criticism
[edit]Despite forecasts that predict the rising economic and political strength of Asia, the idea of an Asian Century has faced criticism. This has included the possibility that the continuing high rate of growth could lead to revolution, economic slumps, and environmental problems, especially in mainland China.[93]
