Jayati Ghosh 印度民主還有新希望嗎？

印度民主還有新希望嗎？

JAYATI GHOSH 2024 年 6 月 14 日

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2810839/is-there-new-hope-for-indias-democracy-

選民將印度民主從邊緣拉了回來。盡管總理納倫德拉·莫迪連續第三次獲勝，但他的執政黨印度人民黨 (BJP) 未能在議會下院 Lok Sabha 獲得簡單多數，這將迫使莫迪依靠幾個不可預測的盟友來推動他的立法議程。
可以肯定的是，全國各地的結果各不相同。但人民黨失去了關鍵州——包括長期被視為黨派據點的北方邦——此前擔心國內經濟問題的選民拒絕了莫迪對極端印度民族主義和仇恨言論的日益關注。

這次選舉提供了幾個教訓。首先，隨著當今印度的現實變得太嚴峻而無法忽視，政府控製國內外敘事的能力顯然正在減弱。

雖然國內精英和外部觀察家都相信印度人民黨宣稱的經濟繁榮，但印度所謂的繁榮隻惠及了一小部分人。大多數印度人麵臨著就業前景惡化、實際工資停滯或下降以及基本商品價格大幅上漲的問題。民意調查顯示，盡管試圖用分裂言論分散選民的注意力，但這些問題仍然是選民最關心的問題。

印度人民黨分裂政治議程的局限性也越來越明顯。在整個競選活動中，莫迪先生和他的政黨公開煽動印度教徒的恐懼。

值得注意的是，大多數發表攻擊性言論的選區都投票反對印度人民黨。該黨甚至輸掉了阿約提亞，該黨最近在一座百年曆史的清真寺舊址上為羅摩神建造了一座巨大的寺廟，該清真寺於 1992 年被一群印度教暴徒拆毀。

盡管贏得了選舉，但莫迪先生精心打造的無敵光環已被打破。他的狂妄自大讓他失望了。即使在他自己的議會選區瓦拉納西，他的勝算也縮水了近三分之二。

事實證明，通過屈從的新聞媒體和社交媒體平台傳播虛假信息和宣傳隻能走這麽遠。直到最近，印度人民黨還利用其權力控製電視、廣播和印刷媒體，其 IT 部門通過龐大的 WhatsApp 群組網絡和網絡噴子“大軍”主宰社交媒體。但盡管做出了這些努力，批評聲音在數字平台上還是獲得了關注，得到了獨立媒體和年輕博主的支持。

過去幾年，莫迪政府試圖壓製社交媒體上的批評，要求數字平台刪除其不讚成的內容，並提出嚴厲的數字媒體法。但現在，印度人民黨已經失去了多數席位，其壓製網上異議的能力可能會受到阻礙。

當然，選舉的影響將更加廣泛。印度人民黨現在必須依靠聯盟夥伴，而這需要談判和妥協的能力——莫迪和他的內政部長兼密友阿米特·沙阿並不具備這種技能。此外，印度人民黨與全國民主聯盟其他政黨的關係從根本上講是交易性的。

巧合的是，印度的曆史與聯合政府必然不利於經濟的說法相矛盾。雖然聯合政府可能更不穩定，但它們能讓更多的聲音被聽到，使其比一黨統治更民主、更具包容性。另一方麵，集權獨裁者更有可能犯下嚴重錯誤，比如莫迪 2016 年災難性的廢鈔令或嚴厲的新冠疫情封鎖，這兩項措施都是在沒有征求州政府或其他政黨的意見的情況下實施的。

也許屈服於印度人民黨要求的各個機構現在會重新發現它們真正的角色和責任，並自主運作。這包括印度人民黨已經完全武器化的執法機構和稅務機關，以及司法機構和媒體。這種轉變甚至可能導致政府被迫解決困擾印度經濟和社會的許多真正問題，而不是依賴宣傳和製造分裂。

但印度的民主尚未走出困境。與印度人民黨注入印度社會的宗教仇恨毒藥作鬥爭可能需要很長時間。同樣，被莫迪的獨裁策略所損害的機構和組織也無法輕易恢複完全自治。隨著莫迪的統治變得越來越不穩定，對法律、監管和行政程序的濫用可能會繼續甚至加劇。

盡管如此，印度政治再次充滿競爭（盡管混亂）。數億印度人有理由感到寬慰。 ©2024 Project Syndicate

Is there new hope for India's democracy?

JAYATI GHOSH  14 JUN 2024

 

Voters have pulled Indian democracy back from the brink. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive term, the failure of his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure a simple majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, will force Mr Modi to rely on several unpredictable allies to promote his legislative agenda.

To be sure, the results varied across the country. But the BJP lost key states -- including Uttar Pradesh, long considered a party stronghold -- after voters concerned about domestic economic issues rejected Mr Modi's growing focus on extreme Hindu nationalism and hate-fuelled rhetoric.

The election offers several lessons. For starters, the government's ability to control the narrative, both within and outside the country, is clearly waning as the reality of today's India becomes too grim to ignore.

While domestic elites and external observers had bought into the BJP's claims of economic prosperity, India's supposed boom has benefited only a small segment of the population. Most Indians face declining job prospects, stagnant or falling real wages, and sharp increases in the prices of essential goods. Polls show that these issues were at the top of voters' minds despite efforts to distract them with divisive rhetoric.

The limits of the BJP's divisive political agenda are also becoming increasingly apparent. Throughout the election campaign, Mr Modi and his party openly stoked Hindu fears.

Notably, most constituencies where offensive speeches were delivered voted against the BJP. The party even lost Ayodhya, where it recently inaugurated a huge temple to the god Ram on the site of a centuries-old mosque demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992.

Despite winning the election, Mr Modi's carefully constructed aura of invincibility has been shattered. His megalomania has failed him. Even in his own parliamentary constituency of Varanasi, his margin of victory shrank by nearly two-thirds.

It turns out that disseminating disinformation and propaganda through subservient news outlets and social-media platforms can take one only so far. Until recently, the BJP used its power to control TV, radio, and print media, and its IT cell dominated social media through a vast network of WhatsApp groups and "armies" of online trolls. But despite these efforts, critical voices have gained traction on digital platforms, supported by independent media outlets and younger bloggers.

Over the past few years, Mr Modi's government has tried to suppress criticism on social media, demanding that digital platforms remove content it disapproved of and proposing draconian digital media laws. But now that the BJP has lost its majority, its ability to silence online dissent may be impeded.

The election's implications will, of course, be much broader. The BJP must now rely on coalition partners, which requires the ability to negotiate and compromise -- skills Mr Modi and Amit Shah, his minister of home affairs and close confidant, are not known for. Moreover, the BJP's relationship with the other parties in the National Democratic Alliance is fundamentally transactional.

Coincidentally, India's history contradicts the claim that a coalition government would necessarily be bad for the economy. While coalitions may be more unstable, they enable more voices to be heard, making them more democratic and inclusive than one-party rule. Centralising authoritarians, on the other hand, are more likely to make serious mistakes, such as Mr Modi's disastrous 2016 demonetisation or the harsh Covid lockdowns, both imposed without consulting state governments or other political parties.

Perhaps the various institutions that succumbed to the BJP's demands will now rediscover their true roles and responsibilities and operate autonomously. This includes the law-enforcement agencies and tax authorities that the BJP has thoroughly weaponised, as well as the judiciary and the media. This shift may even lead to a government that is forced to address the many genuine problems plaguing India's economy and society rather than relying on propaganda and fostering division.

But India's democracy is not out of the woods yet. Fighting the poison of religious hatred that the BJP has injected into Indian society could take a long time. Similarly, the agencies and institutions compromised by Mr Modi's authoritarian tactics cannot easily revert to full autonomy. And the abuse of legal, regulatory, and administrative processes may continue and even intensify as Mr Modi's rule becomes increasingly precarious.

Nevertheless, Indian politics is competitive (albeit chaotic) once again. Hundreds of millions of Indians have reason to feel relieved. ©2024 Project Syndicate