不回頭 美國和歐洲正在進入新的貿易時代

“我們不會回頭”：美國和歐洲正在進入新的貿易時代

 

作者：亞當·貝蘇迪 06/03/2023

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/03/us-europe-china-trade-00099954

這一巨大轉變意味著氣候和科技等問題將與貿易更加緊密地交織在一起。

美國商務部長吉娜·雷蒙多、美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯、美國貿易代表凱瑟琳·戴、歐盟內部市場專員蒂埃裏·布雷頓等人於 2023 年 5 月 31 日在瑞典呂勒奧舉行會議。

美國和歐盟之間的貿易關係過去取決於一些問題，例如美國人是否可以使用戈貢佐拉等歐洲名稱來標記他們的奶酪，或者歐洲人是否應該購買用氯清洗的美國雞肉。

現在的焦點更加關乎生存——這可能會讓貿易爭端更難解決。

人們記憶中的第一次大流行迫使人們重新思考全球供應鏈。 目前，大量投資正投入到應對氣候變化的努力中。 人工智能和下一代 6G 通信網絡等新技術可能會顛覆經濟和政府的運作方式。

這一切的背後是：對來自中國的競爭日益焦慮，以及歐盟和美國越來越關注支撐國內產業而不是鼓勵全球進口。

“這是一個不同的世界：氣候、非市場經濟政策和做法、供應鏈脆弱性是首要考慮的問題，”今年退休的美國與歐洲貿易問題長期首席談判代表丹尼爾·穆拉尼(Daniel Mullaney)說。

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本周美國和歐盟官員在瑞典舉行的會議上展現了這一戲劇性的轉變，這意味著氣候和科技等問題將與貿易更加緊密地交織在一起，隨著雙方都在用過時的規則手冊進行競爭，使得合作變得更具挑戰性。

“過去 10 年的演變是由許多不同因素推動的，我們不會回頭，”穆拉尼說。 “這不是上屆政府下台的問題，現在每個人都可以回到以前的狀態並鬆一口氣。 甚至在上屆政府之前，情況就已經發生了變化，包括在歐洲。”

拜登政府期間啟動的一個新論壇正試圖彌合這一差距。 在瑞典舉行會議的美國-歐盟貿易和技術理事會正在采取比之前更加外向的方針，旨在增加美國和歐盟之間的貿易，美國和歐盟的 27 個成員國作為一個整體進行貿易談判。 其中包括更多討論雙方如何在對未來經濟增長至關重要的技術和產業的標準和法規方麵進行合作。

一群高級官員周三結束了在呂勒奧舉行的第四次 TTC 會議。呂勒奧是北極圈上方的一座小型工業城市，是歐洲“綠色”煉鋼中心，也是美國科技巨頭 Meta 數據服務器的所在地。

不到十年前，雙方奉行完全不同的戰略。 跨大西洋貿易和投資夥伴關係是前總統巴拉克·奧巴馬領導下啟動的傳統自由貿易談判，將美國和歐盟的商業利益置於首要地位和中心。 這些談判最終以失敗告終，因為歐洲領導人麵臨著巨大的政治壓力——草根運動推動了歐洲領導人對與美國更緊密的經濟一體化日益感到擔憂。

拜登正在利用底特律推銷他對全球經濟的願景。 它還展示了其中的陷阱。
在前總統唐納德·特朗普的領導下，美國提高鋼鐵和鋁進口關稅後，兩國展開針鋒相對的關稅戰，貿易關係跌至低點。 作為報複，歐盟對波本威士忌和哈雷戴維森摩托車等美國標誌性出口產品征收關稅。 特朗普還威脅要對歐洲汽車進口征收高關稅。 雙方最終就一小部分關稅削減達成一致。

自自由貿易談判破裂和特朗普時代的關稅狂潮以來，解決傳統貿易摩擦的政治意願已不複存在。 長期存在的貿易問題包括歐盟對轉基因作物的限製以及美國限製歐洲公司競標政府項目的“購買美國貨”要求。

總部位於布魯塞爾的智庫歐洲國際政治經濟中心主任霍蘇克·李-牧山表示：“對於其中許多刺激性問題，我們隻是找到了一種忍受它們的方法。”

拜登政府沒有回到傳統的關稅談判，而是采取了“以工人為中心”的貿易政策。 它沒有推動貿易夥伴采用更適合美國科技公司的數字法規或向更多美國投資開放市場，而是重點關注提高外國勞動力和環境標準，為美國工人創造公平的競爭環境。 由於擔心政治影響，這一切的發生並沒有提供更多進入美國利潤豐厚的消費市場的機會。

與此同時，本應成為新時代製定全球商業新規則的神經中樞的世界貿易組織卻失去了影響力。 許多人指責歐盟和美國這兩個最重要的成員未能保持這個總部位於日內瓦的組織的相關性。 這個笨拙、基於共識的組織在本世紀的大部分時間裏一直在努力製定一個框架來應對全球經濟的新挑戰，包括可持續發展和解決中國的行為問題。

“當中國加入世貿組織時，全世界都非常高興，因為大多數人認為中國會改變，但在某種程度上，是中國改變了世貿組織，”前歐盟駐美國大使雨果·帕門(Hugo Paemen)表示。

本周在瑞典，參加最近一次 TTC 會議的國務卿安東尼·布林肯強調，最近在幾百公裏外發現了歐洲最大的稀土金屬礦床。 | 謝爾蓋·格裏特/美聯社照片

由於沒有有效的全球或雙邊貿易論壇來解決爭端，雙方目前正在應對與新氣候政策相關的日益加劇的貿易緊張局勢。 其汽車公司基本上被排除在美國針對電動汽車的主要稅收抵免之外，歐盟對此感到憤怒。 國會有意製定法律，排除外國生產的汽車、電池和礦物，除非它們來自自由貿易夥伴。 尚未與美國達成自由貿易協定的歐盟目前正在談判一項協議，如果汽車使用在歐盟提取或加工的所謂關鍵礦物，那麽歐洲公司將至少部分受益於稅收抵免。 用於製造電池。

本周在瑞典，參加最近一次 TTC 會議的國務卿安東尼·布林肯強調，最近在幾百公裏外發現了歐洲最大的稀土金屬礦床。

“這表明瑞典作為一個礦業國家有著光明的未來——對於綠色轉型來說，這再次變得越來越重要，”他說。

同樣，美國公司也對歐盟的碳邊界調整機製表示擔憂。 該措施允許歐盟對來自歐洲國家沒有可比碳定價的國家的進口產品征收費用，從而拉平這一領域。

對於 TTC 是否會拿出具體成果來解決這些問題或阻止未來出現任何分歧，人們仍然高度懷疑。

“你必須用你現有的食材來烹飪，現在就是 TTC。 他們正在努力充分利用它。 [但]數量並不多，”現任彼得森國際經濟研究所高級研究員的前歐盟貿易委員塞西莉亞·馬爾姆斯特羅姆說道。

跨大西洋政策製定者未來麵臨的挑戰是如何使過去的貿易模式適應世界的新問題和全球化的新觀念。

“我們仍然會舉行拳擊比賽，”李-牧山說。 “但至少我們可以同意，我們將停止互相攻擊。”

道格·帕爾默為本報告做出了貢獻。

 

'We're not going back': The U.S. and Europe are entering a new trade era

By ADAM BEHSUDI  06/03/2023 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/03/us-europe-china-trade-00099954 

The dramatic shift means that issues like climate and tech will grow more intertwined with trade.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton and others are seen at a meeting in Lulea, Sweden, May 31, 2023. 

The trade relationship between the U.S. and the EU used to hinge on issues such as whether Americans could label their cheese using European names like Gorgonzola — or whether Europeans should buy U.S. chicken washed in chlorine.

The focus now is more existential—and could make trade disputes more difficult to resolve.

The first pandemic in living memory has forced a rethink of global supply chains. Massive investments are now pouring into climate change efforts. New technologies like artificial intelligence and next generation 6G communication networks threaten to upend how economies and governments function.

Running beneath it all: growing anxiety over competition from China and an increasing focus in both the EU and U.S. on propping up domestic industries instead of encouraging global imports.

“This is a different world: Climate, non-market economy policies and practices, supply chain vulnerabilities are top of mind,” said Daniel Mullaney, who retired this year as the United States’ long-time top negotiator on trade issues with Europe.

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The dramatic shift, which was on display at meetings between U.S. and EU officials in Sweden this week, means that issues like climate and tech will grow more intertwined with trade, making cooperation more challenging as each side competes with an outdated rulebook.

“The evolution over the last 10 years was driven by a lot of different factors, and we’re not going back,” Mullaney said. “It’s not a question of the last administration is out and now everyone can go back to the way things were before and heave a sigh of relief. Things were already changing, including in Europe, even before the last administration.”

A new forum started during the Biden administration is attempting to bridge the gap. The U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, the body that met in Sweden, is taking a more outward-looking approach than previous efforts aimed at increasing commerce between the U.S. and EU, whose 27 member nations negotiate trade as a single bloc. That includes more discussion on how the two sides can cooperate on the standards and regulations of technologies and industries that will be central to future economic growth.

A group of high-level officials wrapped up their fourth TTC meeting on Wednesday in Luleå, a small industrial city above the Arctic Circle that is a hub for “green” steelmaking in Europe and home to U.S. tech giant Meta’s data servers.

Less than a decade ago, the two sides were pursuing an entirely different strategy. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a traditional free trade negotiation started under former President Barack Obama, put U.S. and EU commercial interests front and center. Those talks eventually died as European leaders came under intense political pressure–driven by a grassroots movement that viewed closer economic integration with the U.S. with growing alarm.

 

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Under former President Donald Trump, trade relations hit a low point as the two sides entered into a tit-for-tat tariff fight after the U.S. raised tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. The EU retaliated by slapping duties on iconic American exports like bourbon and Harley Davidson motorcycles. Trump also threatened to hit imports of European automobiles with high tariffs. The two sides eventually agreed on a small package of tariff cuts.

Since the collapse of free trade talks and the tariff frenzy of the Trump era, there’s no longer the political will to address traditional trade frictions. Long-standing trade issues range from EU restrictions on genetically modified crops to U.S. “Buy American” requirements that limit European companies from bidding on government projects.

“On many of these irritants, we just found a way to live with them,” said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Center for International Political Economy, a Brussels-based think tank.

Rather than return to the traditional give-and-take of tariff negotiations, the Biden administration has embraced a “worker-centered” trade policy. Instead of pushing trading partners to adopt digital regulations more amenable to U.S. tech companies or open their markets to more U.S. investment, it’s heavily focused on raising foreign labor and environmental standards to level the playing field for U.S. workers. That’s all happening without offering the reward of greater access to America’s lucrative consumer market for fear of political repercussions.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization, which should be the nerve center for establishing new global rules for commerce in a new era, has lost its clout. Many blame both the EU and the U.S. as two of its most prominent members for failing to keep the Geneva-based organization relevant. The unwieldy, consensus-based organization has struggled for most of this century to come up with a framework for new challenges in the global economy, including sustainability and addressing China’s behavior.

“The world was very happy when China came to the WTO because most people thought China was going to change, but it’s China that changed the WTO up to a certain point,” said Hugo Paemen, a former EU ambassador to the U.S.

In Sweden this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was attending the most recent TTC meeting, highlighted that Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth metals was recently discovered a few hundred kilometers away. | Sergei Grits/AP Photo

 

Without an effective global or bilateral trade forum to litigate disputes, the two sides are now dealing with rising trade tensions related to new climate policies. The EU was angered after its auto companies were essentially cut out of a major U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles. Congress purposefully crafted the law to exclude foreign-produced vehicles, batteries and minerals unless they are from a free-trade partner. The EU, which lacks a free trade deal with the U.S., is now negotiating a deal that would allow European companies to benefit at least partially off the tax credit if the automobile uses so-called critical minerals extracted or processed in the EU that could be used to make batteries.

In Sweden this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was attending the most recent TTC meeting, highlighted that Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth metals was recently discovered a few hundred kilometers away.

“It shows that Sweden has a bright future as a mining nation – increasingly important, again, for the green transition,” he said.

Similarly, U.S. companies have expressed concern over the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The measure allows the bloc to impose a fee on imports of products that come from countries without comparable carbon pricing found in European countries, thus leveling the field.

Skepticism remains high over whether the TTC will deliver concrete results to address these issues or head off any future disagreements.

“You have to cook with the ingredients that you have, which right now is TTC. And they’re trying to make the best out of it. [But] it’s not a lot,” said former European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström, who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The challenge for transatlantic policymakers going forward is how to make the trade model of the past fit with the world’s new problems and new perception of globalization.

“We’re still going to have boxing matches,” said Lee-Makiyama. “But at least we can agree we’re going to stop kicking each other under the belt.”

Doug Palmer contributed to this report.