托尼·布萊爾 談中國作為全球大國的角色以及與中國交往的關鍵

英國前首相托尼·布萊爾談中國作為全球大國的角色以及與中國交往的關鍵

Former UK PM Tony Blair on China's role as global power and the key to engage with China

YouTube June 25 2025

"China's got every right to be a major power", pointed out former UK's Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday when speaking at a panel of the 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, or the Summer Davos, in Tianjin. He further underlined the importance to engage with China and understand China, because having dialogues is "in the world's interests."

英國前首相托尼·布萊爾周二在天津舉行的第十六屆新領軍者年會（夏季達沃斯）小組會議上指出：“中國完全有資格成為一個大國。” 他進一步強調了與中國交往和了解中國的重要性，因為進行對話“符合世界的利益”。
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世界經濟論壇主席兼首席執行官博爾格·布倫德

托尼，您第一次訪問中國是在1988年。

托尼·布萊爾

謝謝你提醒我老齡化的過程，不過，嗯，我想那時的中國和現在不一樣。嗯，是的，那時候有很多人騎自行車，他們現在想停下來。我發現很多人因為各種原因又開始騎自行車了。不，這太神奇了。這看起來可能是人類曆史上最非凡的轉型故事。嗯，順便說一句，了解這一切是如何開始的真的很有趣。它始於中國開放。嗯，我認為……你真的把人們分為兩類。說到中國，有些人不希望中國強大，而有些人非常願意接受中國應該強大，但他們想知道這種強大將用於什麽目的。所以現在你把這兩類人分成了。首先，我認為這是一個有限的類別，我非常不同意他們的觀點。中國憑借其文明、人口、經濟和技術，完全有資格成為一個大國。你知道，這種轉變已經發生，而且，因為我的研究所在世界上許多不同的國家開展工作，中國是大多數國家除了近鄰之外的最大貿易夥伴，對吧？所以，你也知道，你去我們工作的國家，無論是非洲、亞洲、中亞還是拉丁美洲，人們都不想選擇，你知道，人們想要建立關係，他們當然希望與美國和西方建立良好關係，但他們也希望與中國建立良好關係，對吧？所以我認為第一類人很少，我們隻需要就此進行辯論。中國完全有資格成為一個大國。第二個問題是，這種力量將被用於什麽用途？這就是我要對人們說的，我們應該足夠強大，能夠應對中國發生的任何情況，但我們應該與中國接觸，我們需要了解中國，我們也需要，因為這是我真正意識到的。卸任後那段時間，我感到有些難過，因為我學到了很多東西，實際上，這真的讓我震驚。我的意思是，天哪，我真希望我在任職期間就知道這些。

博爾格·布倫德

現在還不晚，你可以再次參選。

托尼·布萊爾

別給我想法，但嗯，不，我的意思是，我認為非常非常重要的一件事，也是我希望我的研究所致力於研究的一件事，就是你必須通過中國的眼睛而不是西方的眼睛來看待中國。我認為這是非常非常重要的一部分，這就是為什麽我如此支持人民之間的交往，而不僅僅是政府之間的交往，因為你知道中國是這樣的，你知道，到本世紀中葉，我認為實際上有三個超級大國：美國、中國，可能還有印度。其他國家如果想和這三個大國坐在一起，就必須這樣做。必須團結起來，所以我認為這些區域集團將變得更加重要。你知道，歐洲就像一個水星，人們必須團結起來，做他們單獨無法做到的事情。你知道，像英國這樣的國家，是的，我們有著輝煌的曆史，我們對此感到非常自豪，但你知道，如果你把我們放在這三個巨人旁邊，僅僅從規模上看，你們並不在一個量級上。你知道，我在政治上長期學習到的另一件事是，政治當然是根據價值觀運作的，但它也是根據權力運作的。你必須現實地看待這個問題。如果你周圍都是巨人，他們有坐在別人身上或踩在別人身上的習慣。所以，如果你想確保自己不會被坐在別人身上，你就必須團結起來。這就是為什麽無論遇到什麽困難，比如在歐洲，我認為是向心力，是向心踏板把東西放在一起，是向心力。呃，這是必要的，因為人們需要團結起來，無論你是德國、意大利、法國，你都知道你需要團結起來，才能在平等的基礎上進行對話，所以我認為這就是現在正在發生的事情，你看，我認為你知道，要理解中國，要與中國保持接觸，而不是試圖孤立中國。中國，嗯，這就是我所信奉的政策。世界利益在於，你有一個公平的貿易體係，你正在處理氣候變化等問題。你知道，全球健康，我的意思是，看看我們經曆了疫情。你知道，我隻是認為，我相信，無論當今世界存在什麽差異，你都應該努力去解決它們，但你必須讓每個人都參與進來，相互對話，因為你們有很多共同點。你知道，即使在今天的中美關係狀況下，你知道，是的，嗯，美國與中國的貿易大幅下降，但仍然有數千億美元。嗯，所以我認為，你不可避免地會陷入這樣一種境地：如果你找不到對話的途徑，你就會被迫再次回到對話中，因為這樣做符合你的利益。嗯，我認為，例如與歐洲，歐洲現在麵臨的巨大挑戰是，它必須找到方法。成為對話中的重要參與者，但要做到這一點，它必須增強自身實力。我認為你明白了。歐洲麵臨的問題是，它如何擁有獨立的力量。你知道，在當今世界，你需要兩樣東西。嗯，要強大，你需要強大的軍事和強大的經濟。現在，就軍事而言，歐洲的防務，我認為它最終會有機會。我幾年前和法國總統一起開啟了這個項目。嗯，它從未真正起步。但我認為，在某種程度上，人們現在明白了，歐洲必須擁有獨立的能力。例如，如果在家門口發生衝突，就像現在這樣，它必須擁有在軍事上影響衝突的能力，然後是強大的經濟。嗯，你知道，關鍵在於競爭力。而今天，我認為關鍵在於技術，尤其是人工智能革命。歐洲目前在這方麵並非關鍵參與者。我的意思是，雖然有美國和中國，但歐洲還有很多工作要做。嗯，我認為它可以做到。那份拖遝的報告已經發布。嗯，闡明歐洲應該做什麽是正確的。人們對歐洲是否會這樣做非常懷疑。我個人認為它可能會這樣做，但這對歐洲來說至關重要。問題是，它如何才能變得足夠強大，無論是與始終是關鍵盟友的美國，還是與中國，都能在平等的基礎上進行對話。這就是力量。

Former UK PM Tony Blair on China's role as global power and the key to engage with China

ShanghaiEye2025年6月25日

"China's got every right to be a major power", pointed out former UK's Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday when speaking at a panel of the 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, or the Summer Davos, in Tianjin. He further underlined the importance to engage with China and understand China, because having dialogues is "in the world's interests."
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Børge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum

you visited China the first time in 1988 Tony 

Tony Blair

thank you for reminding me of the aging process but yeah it's uh I I I guess there was a different China then compared to today huh yes then there were a lot of people on bicycles which they wanted to get off today I find there are a lot of people getting
back on bicycles for different reasons no it's an amazing it's look it's probably the most remarkable story of transformation in human history um and by the way it's really
interesting to know how it began it began with China opening up and look I think um
you you really define people into you know two categories when it comes to China there are people who do not want China to be powerful and then there are people who are perfectly willing to accept that China should be powerful but wonder to what purpose will this power be put so you've got these two categories of people now on the first I think it's a limited category and they're people I just profoundly disagree with china's got every right to be a major power by dent of its civilization its population its economy its technology you know the fact that this transformation story has happened also you know because my institute works in so many different countries in the world China is most
countries biggest trading partner other than their nearest neighbor right so you've also got you know you go to the countries we work in whether in Africa in Asia central Asia Latin America people don't want to choose you know people want relations of course they
want good relation with America and the west but they also want good relations with China right so I think that first category of people is small and we just need to have an argument there China's got every right to be a power the second question is to what use is this power going to be put and that's where what I say to people is you you we should be strong enough to deal with whatever happens in China but we should be engaged with China we need to understand China and we also need cuz this is what's come home to me I Look one of the really sad things about uh the period of time after leaving office is is how much I've learned in fact it's actually shocking i mean I think God I wish I'd known all this when I was doing the job you know it's 

Børge Brende

it's not too late you can run again

Tony Blair

don't give me ideas but um no I mean and one of the things I think is really really important and it's something I I want my institute to work on is you got to see China through China China's eyes and not through the west's eyes and I think this is a really really important part of this is why I'm so much in favor of engagement peopleto
people not just government to government business because you know China's it it's it's you know you're going to reach the middle of this century where I think effectively you've got three superpowers there'll be America China and probably India and everyone else is going to have to if they want to sit at the same table as the three giants they're going to have to come together that's why I think you're getting these regional blocks are going to become much more important you know Europe as um mercaur you know people are going to have to do together what they can't do individually because you know a country like Britain yes we've got a fabulous history of which we're very proud but
you know you put us alongside those three giants and just by dent of size you're not you're not at the same scale and you know the thing thing I one of the other things I've learned in politics over a long period of time is that you know politics does operate of
course according to values but it also operates It's according to power and you just got to be realistic about it if you if you are around giants they have a habit of sitting on people or treading on them and so if you if you want to make sure you're not going to get sat on you got to come together and that's why um whatever the difficulties for example
in Europe that I think it's centripedal is it centrip pedal that puts things together yeah that centripedal force uh of necessity because people need to come together whether you're Germany Italy France you know you need to come together in order to be able to to to have a a dialogue in equal terms so I think this is the the way it's happening
and look I think you know understanding China staying engaged with China not engaged in trying to isolate China uh that's the policy I believe in look the interests of the world are that you have a a fair trading system that you're dealing with issues like climate
change you know global health i mean look at we went through the pandemic you know I just think it's I'm just a believer that whatever differences there are in today's world you try and sort them out but you've got to keep in keep everyone engaged together and in dialogue with each other because you've got so many things that you have to do in common and you know even today with the the state of US China relations and and you know yes
it's true um America's trade with China is declined significantly but it's still hundreds of billions of dollars um and so I think you you know you're inevitably in a situation where if you don't find means of having dialogue you'll be forced back into it again because because it's in your interest to do it um and one of the reasons why I think for example with with with Europe you know there's a huge challenge now for Europe is that it's going to have to find the way of being an important player in that dialogue but
to do that it's going to have to strengthen itself i think you see the qu the question for Europe is how does it have independent strength and you know there are two things that you need in today's world uh to be strong right you need a strong military and a strong economy now in the military terms Europe European defense now I think it's eventually got a chance I started it actually with the president of France um some years back um it never really took off but I think in a way people understand now Europe's got to the independent ability for example if it's got a conflict going on on its own doorstep which is the case right now it's got to have the ability militarily to influence that and then the strong economy um you know the key thing is competitiveness and today the key to that in my view is technology and in particular the artificial intelligence
revolution which Europe at the moment is is not a key player in i mean you got America you got China but Europe's got a lot of catching up to do um I think it can do it that the draggy report that was published uh um setting out what Europe should do is the right thing people are very skeptical whether Europe will do it i personally believe it it it may do but that's the key for Europe the question the question is how does it become independently strong enough that whether it's engaging with America that will always be a key ally or with China it's able to have the dialogue on equal terms and that's you know that's Power