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歐洲外交關係委員會民調顯示，大多數歐洲人將中國視作“必要夥伴”
劉程輝 2023-06-07 觀察者網
【文/觀察者網 劉程輝】“歐洲人如今將俄羅斯視為敵人，而不是中國。”《紐約時報》6月7日以此為題報道了一項最新出爐的歐洲民調結果。報道稱，盡管法國和德國與中國的互動引發了美國方麵的不滿，但大多數歐洲受訪者仍將中國視作“必要的夥伴”，並沒有如美國精英期望的那樣同中國對抗。民調還顯示，一旦中美圍繞台灣問題爆發衝突，大多數歐洲人希望保持中立，而非支持美國對抗中國。
今年4月，歐洲外交關係委員會對11個歐盟成員國的6000多人開啟了這項民意調查，涉及歐洲與中國和俄羅斯的關係，調查結果於7日公布。上一次類似的調查是在2021年。
民調顯示，俄烏衝突的爆發對歐洲人對待俄羅斯的態度產生了較大影響，約有64%的受訪者將俄羅斯視作“競爭對手或敵人”，而兩年前這一比例約為三分之一。
至於歐洲與中國的關係，調查表明，歐洲人在許多方麵更傾向於馬克龍的對華接觸戰略，而非馮德萊恩的對華強硬政策，大部分受訪者不認為中國是一個想要挑戰和破壞歐洲的大國，也不相信拜登政府推動的所謂“民主與專製”框架。
受訪者回應歐洲應該如何看待中國
與2021年的民調結果相比，歐洲人對中國的看法幾乎沒有發生太大變化，在所有受訪者中，隻有約35%的人將中國視作“競爭對手或敵人”，幾乎每個國家的受訪者都普遍認為，中國是歐洲的“必要合作夥伴”。
就具體國家而言，保加利亞對華持積極態度的比例最高，有約三分之二（66%）的受訪者認為中國是歐洲的“盟友或必要的夥伴”，隻有10%的人選擇了“競爭對手或敵人”；匈牙利、西班牙、荷蘭認為中國是“盟友或必要夥伴”的受訪者比例均超過了一半。
所有11個國家中，隻有德國、法國、丹麥和瑞典四國的主流觀點認為中國是“競爭對手或敵人”。其中，隻有31%的法國人和33%的德國人將中國視為“必要夥伴”，而50%的德國人和41%的法國人將中國視為“競爭對手或敵人”。
若中美圍繞台灣問題爆發衝突，歐洲受訪者所持立場
民調還顯示，一旦中美圍繞台灣問題爆發衝突，大多數（62%）歐洲受訪者希望保持中立，而非支持美國對抗中國，支持美國的比例僅為23%。
選擇“支持中國或保持中立”比例最高的前四個國家分別為奧地利、保加利亞、匈牙利和西班牙。選擇“支持美國”比例最高的前四個國家分別為瑞典、波蘭、荷蘭以及丹麥。
民調的聯合作者、歐洲外交關係委員會官員亞娜·普格裏林（Jana Puglierin）表示，總的來說，“歐洲人準備讚揚跨大西洋關係，並看到了更多的好處而不是風險，但他們不認為這伴隨著義務。他們不認為台灣問題是美國戰略的基本組成部分，也不認為它與烏克蘭有關”。“盡管美國對歐洲進行了大量投資，但人們很少意識到不站在美國一邊會有什麽問題，他們認為中立也是一種選擇。”
Europeans Now See Russia as an Adversary, but Not China
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/07/world/europe/europe-russia-china-poll.html#:~:text=
An extensive poll of 11 European countries finds citizens less eager for competition and rivalry with China than Washington — or European elites — have become.
President Emmanuel Macron of France and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a welcoming ceremony in Beijing in April.Credit...Ludovic Marin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
When Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France recently made separate but friendly visits to China, it sparked considerable dismay among their fellow leaders in Europe and Washington.
Especially given Beijing’s “no-limits partnership” with Russia, the efforts to treat China as what Mr. Macron called “a strategic and global partner,” rather than as a rival, were met with sometimes caustic criticism.
Yet, an extensive opinion poll released on Wednesday, shows that Europeans tend to agree with them.
Even as Beijing moves closer to Moscow, and despite the war in Ukraine, a majority of Europeans still see China predominantly as “a necessary partner,” according to the poll of more than 6,000 people in 11 E.U. member states carried out in April by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The poll indicates that majorities in all 11 countries are unwilling to support the United States against China if there were to be a military escalation between these two powers and would wish to remain neutral.
At the same time, Russia is increasingly seen as an adversary or rival, a view held by some 64 percent of respondents, an increase from about a third of respondents when the same question was posed in a 2021 poll.
“Europeans clearly see the Russia-China alliance and that it’s formed against the West, but they treat them differently,” said Jana Puglierin, co-author of the report accompanying the poll. “That only changes if China supplies arms to Russia.”
Indeed, 41 percent of Europeans would support economic sanctions against China if Beijing were to provide significant military aid to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, while 33 percent would oppose that step.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points in larger countries and plus or minus three percentage points in smaller ones.
While wishing to cooperate with Beijing on global issues like climate change, European leaders officially consider China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor,” according to their “strategic compass,” the European Union’s strategy paper.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in a speech in late March, took a tough line on Beijing, saying that it was entering a new era of “security and control,” had a policy of “divide and conquer” and that Europe must “de-risk” key sectors from dependence on China.
Her views are closer to those of the Biden administration, but European opinion is closer to the views of Mr. Macron, Ms. Puglierin said.
Yet Mr. Macron was widely criticized for his comments after visiting China’s president Xi Jinping in April, when he said that Europe should not be “followers” on Taiwan or “adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”
He said that it would be “a trap for Europe” to get caught up in crises “that are not ours.” Europeans should continue to develop their own strategic autonomy and become a “third pole” in the world order, and not risk becoming “vassals” in a U.S.-China confrontation. Like Mr. Scholz, Mr. Macron downplayed any rivalry and said that China was “a strategic and global partner.”
Still, while France and Germany are the main partners for Beijing, “the reality is that French businesses are disillusioned with the Chinese market, and the long-term picture for Sino-French economic partnership looks gloomy at best,” cautioned Philippe Le Corre, a scholar of China with the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
For him, the most important finding of the survey is that French and German respondents have fairly negative views of China, with only 31 percent of the French and 33 percent of Germans seeing China as a “partner,” while 50 percent of Germans and 41 percent of the French see China as a rival or an adversary.
That would seem to leave both leaders, even if more in tune with European sentiments, on more challenging ground at home, but perhaps making it easier for Germany in particular to reduce its significant economy dependency on trade with China, especially in the key automotive sector.
Elsewhere, Mr. Le Corre said, Europeans were either “largely apathetic” about China or wary, especially of Chinese investment in European infrastructure, tech companies and the media. “Europeans do not want an increase in Chinese foreign direct investments — so much for the Belt and Road Initiative,” Mr. Le Corre said, referring to China’s push to build ports, rail lines and telecommunications networks around the world.
Views on Russia have hardened, with majorities seeing Russia as an adversary, with growing doubts about Moscow even in traditionally sympathetic France and Italy, pointed out Pawel Zerka, a co-author of the report.
Roughly half of all respondents believe that even after a peace in Ukraine, future relations with Russia should be “limited.” But in Bulgaria and Hungary a majority of respondents viewed Russia as an “ally” or “partner” and in general would like to cooperate with Moscow after the war.
While views of the United States as an ally have improved from 2021, when Donald J. Trump was president, roughly three-quarters of respondents believe that Europe should reduce its security dependence on Washington and invest more in its own defense. Some 56 percent of all respondents said that the re-election of Mr. Trump would weaken trans-Atlantic relations.
In general, Ms. Puglierin said, “Europeans are ready to praise the trans-Atlantic relationship and see more benefits than risks, but don’t see that it comes with obligations. They don’t see that Taiwan is considered a fundamental part of U.S. strategy or that it is linked with Ukraine,” or to the protection of the Pacific sea lanes on which European trade depends.
“There is little awareness that it would be problematic not to side with the U.S. after it has invested so much in Europe,” she said. “They see neutrality as an option.”
Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe, based in Brussels. He previously reported from London, Paris, Jerusalem, Berlin, Prague, Moscow and Bangkok. @StevenErlanger
