個人資料
正文

Michael Hudson 戰略帝國 債務與美元

(2025-07-02 01:19:51) 下一個

Michael Hudson 戰略帝國:債務與美元

The Strategic Empire: Debt & the Dollar

https://michael-hudson.com/2025/06/the-strategic-empire-debt-the-dollar/

作者:Michael 2025年6月28日 訪談 去美元化 永久鏈接

格倫·迪森:大家好,歡迎!今天,我們邀請到經濟學教授邁克爾·哈德森,共同探討美國帝國的戰略。當我們探討帝國時,我們通常傾向於關注軍事能力和部署,但眾所周知,帝國也需要經濟基礎。為了探討這個問題,我們將探討邁克爾·哈德森教授的一本傑作,即《超級帝國主義》,它闡述了美國帝國的經濟戰略。我會在書的簡介中附上這本書的鏈接。請務必閱讀,歡迎回來收聽節目。

邁克爾·哈德森:格倫,謝謝你的邀請。

格倫·迪森:是的,討論完這個問題之後,我們會探討美國帝國的經濟戰略。聽聽您如何看待這些經濟基礎,嗯,不如您這本書初版出版時那麽穩固,這很有意思。但我認為一個好的切入點是您如何看待您書中提到的“美國世界秩序的誕生”這一部分。美國帝國的經濟戰略基礎是什麽?

邁克爾·赫德森:嗯,除了1898年戰爭之外,美國人從未像歐洲那樣嚐試過公開的軍事殖民主義。結果卻是金融殖民主義和金融帝國主義。而真正建立這樣一個帝國的嚐試,直到1944年和1945年二戰結束才真正開始。但這一切的根源都在於第一次世界大戰的結束,當時一戰的和解最終迫使美國償還其參戰前借給英國、法國和其他盟國的戰爭債務。

戰爭結束後,歐洲人期待著盟國之間能夠相互免除債務,這在當時是常態,例如拿破侖戰爭之後的慣例,因為這一切都被認為是戰爭努力的一部分,不僅提供軍隊,還提供資金和購買武器的資金。但美國卻說,好吧,我們同意你們的意見。當然,一旦我們加入你們一方對抗德國,我們就不會考慮向你們收取戰爭的所有費用。但在我們參戰之前,情況就完全不同了。我們是中立方,我們希望你們償還你們所欠的戰爭債務。債務就是債務。

後來,盟軍轉而攻擊德國,說我們不想償還美國債務。坦白說,我們沒錢償還美國算出來的我們欠的債務。我們要讓德國支付賠款。到了1921-22年,當這一切塵埃落定,這基本上成了慣例。

所以我不得不說,歐洲在某種程度上也參與其中。所有歐洲國家,包括德國,都認為債務就是債務。如果這是官方債務,如果是盟軍強加給德國的戰爭賠款,那顯然超出了德國的能力。德國所有政黨,甚至包括社會民主黨和反戰黨,都一致認為這些債務必須償還。

結果我們知道。德國隻有一種償還方式,因為它失去了其主要的、生產力最高的鋼鐵工業——阿爾薩斯-洛林地區。 《凡爾賽條約》使德國財政陷入癱瘓。它償還債務的唯一途徑就是將其貨幣——德國馬克——投入外匯市場購買美元,最終變成美元,以償還其欠協約國的債務,而協約國卻將這些債務轉嫁給美國,作為其對協約國之間債務的償還。結果,德國陷入了惡性通貨膨脹。美國不想讓德國自己賺錢償還協約國債務,因為這會威脅到美國的工業。

因此,美國通過了一項關稅法案,禁止進口貶值的貨幣,也就是德國貨幣。這樣一來,德國就沒有任何償還能力了。結果,美國投資者借錢給德國城市和地方政府。這些城市為了資助自己的地方預算而借入美元,然後把美元交給了德國國家銀行。德國國家銀行用這些美元償還協約國債務,協約國再用這些美元償還美國債務。

因此,由此形成的是一種循環流動,而這一切最終都基於對黃金的需求。美國在第一次世界大戰和第二次世界大戰期間國際實力的增強,都反映了其日益增長的黃金實力,所有主要貨幣都可以兌換黃金。到德國崩潰為納粹政權時,大量資本從歐洲流向美國。

這些國家導致美國的黃金儲備進一步增加。因此,到二戰結束時,美國控製了世界上絕大部分的貨幣黃金。由於歐洲遭受重創,美國也得以掌控和平後國際貿易和金融體係的運作方式。

因此,美國利用其權力創建了國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行、國際貿易組織和雙邊外交,旨在迅速吞並曾經的大英帝國。美國通過向英鎊提供貸款來平衡其國際收支,並在二戰後恢複元氣,從而維持了英鎊的穩定。

條件是,英國必須開放英鎊區,讓印度和其他在二戰期間積累了黃金和英鎊餘額的國家能夠使用這些餘額,這些餘額不僅限於英國工業,也包括美國。因此,美國基本上有一係列由約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯提出的計劃,試圖確保戰後秩序不會失衡到所有黃金和權力都流向美國。

美國拒絕了這些計劃。他們創建了國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行,主要是為了服務於美國的國家利益。我不知道你是否想讓我詳細闡述。例如,世界銀行的職責是向其他國家提供貸款,幫助它們發展經濟。但最初,歐洲,以及現在的全球南方國家,在當時被稱為發展中國家。

但世界銀行從二戰至今的政策都是不向那些在美國控製的任何商品上實現自給自足的國家提供貸款。而二戰以來,美國的國際收支平衡很大程度上依賴於糧食出口以及對石油工業的控製,正如我們今天所看到的。因此,世界銀行根本沒有嚐試遵循其自身經濟學家的建議。

世界銀行開展了一係列國家研究,其對拉丁美洲或中東的每一項研究都表明,必須進行土地改革。必須讓這些國家的農業像美國通過《農業調整法》那樣,大力組織政府支持農業發展,支持糧食生產,使這些國家實現自給自足。從曆史上看,這是自給自足的主要目標。美國和世界銀行基本上是通過貸款來資助國際貿易對美國的依賴,而國際貨幣基金組織正是為此而生的。國際貨幣基金組織運用了美國和歐洲在第一次世界大戰後奉行的那種自我毀滅的經濟哲學。

第一次世界大戰後,英國的約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯與來自法國和美國的反德經濟學家之間展開了一場激烈的辯論,他們認為,是的,這些債務並非無法償還。任何國家隻要將本幣貶值到足以使其出口具有競爭力的水平,就能夠償還任何數額的外債。在實踐中,國際貨幣基金組織的理念是,如果各國僅僅降低勞動力成本,就像它有一套勞動價值理論一樣,如果各國能夠實施緊縮政策,削減政府預算,避免出現預算赤字,從而向經濟注入資金,那麽通貨緊縮和低工資就能使這些國家償還外債。自1945年成立以來,國際貨幣基金組織就一直奉行這一政策。

這種通貨緊縮的緊縮理念在很大程度上阻礙了全球南方國家、中東和亞洲國家自二戰以來,在不得不償還外債以彌補與美國的貿易逆差的同時,這些國家卻不得不借貸。隨著這些貿易逆差不斷擴大,各國紛紛爭相獲取美元。實際上,這意味著需要用黃金來償還債務,將外國債權人、美國政府的利益置於一切之上,同時也將美國債券持有人和銀行的利益置於自身國內發展之上。

你可以想象一下,究竟發生了什麽事,威脅到了美國建立的這種動態,這種動態本質上是為了使自己成為勞動分工和生產專業化的受益者:美國作為領先的工業國,其他國家作為其原材料供應國和低工資製造商。這被稱為二元經濟結構。一個經濟體是美國和程度較小的歐洲,另一個經濟體是全球南方國家和那些無法自給自足的國家。那麽,是什麽終結了這一切呢?

1950-51年朝鮮戰爭爆發後,美國黃金儲備迅速增加。

1945年至1950年間,美國的黃金儲備實際上已增至全球貨幣黃金總量的80%。這意味著,美國擁有黃金,並堅持所有主要國家的貨幣都以黃金計價,這意味著美國擁有壓倒性的金融實力。1950年,由於與朝鮮戰爭相關的軍事開支,美國首次出現國際收支逆差。從20世紀50年代開始,一直到70年代末,美國一直處於國際收支逆差狀態,其解決方式是向那些接收美國拋售美元的國家支付黃金。而整個逆差都是軍事開支造成的。

我先是在大通曼哈頓銀行擔任國際收支分析師,後來在會計師事務所安德森會計師事務所工作,負責分析美國的國際收支,結果表明所有赤字都與軍事赤字有關。你可以想象一下20世紀60年代末越南戰爭期間發生了什麽。我在大通銀行工作時,每個星期五早上,我們都會查看美聯儲關於本周美國黃金儲備狀況的報告。當戴高樂將軍收到美國在法屬印度支那、越南、柬埔寨和老撾等地拋售的美元時,美國需要向法國輸送多少黃金?這些美元都被送往法國,並被法國兌換成黃金。

德國也獲得了大量美元,而其他國家從美國獲得的軍事開支,又花在了德國的工業出口上。因此,我們每周都會看到,對美國黃金儲備的索償權不斷上升。顯而易見,如果美國冷戰時期的開支繼續以當時的速度增長,那麽到某個時候,它將耗盡足夠的黃金來合法地覆蓋美國紙幣。1971年之前,你口袋裏的每一美元都必須有25%的黃金儲備作為支撐。到了1971年,尼克鬆總統意識到情況已不再如此。

他關閉了黃金儲備窗口,並表示,我們再也無法用黃金來支付我們在亞洲乃至全球的軍事開支了。美國政府內部陷入了恐慌。一年後,差不多就在1971年8月美國放棄金本位製的一年後,我的《超級帝國主義》出版了,時間大概是1972年8月或9月。結果,據我所知,這本書的最大買家是中央情報局和國防部,他們通過華盛頓的書店購買了這本書。

我在德崇證券的朋友們,那些投資銀行家們,來找我,說,你看,你在學術界幹什麽?我們打算邀請你來參加我們的年會演講。赫爾曼·卡恩也會去。他會喜歡你的演講,還會給你提供一份工作。接受吧,離開學術界。

所以我確實向他們解釋說,美國停止以黃金支付並不一定意味著美國權力的終結。恰恰相反,一旦外國不再能用美元購買美國黃金,考慮到當時的國際金融外交安排,他們隻有一個實際選擇:他們用美元做什麽?他們購買當時最安全的投資——美國國債、國債、國庫券。

於是,美國在海外花費軍費時,接受國把美元交給了中央銀行,換成了本國貨幣。各國央行將這些美元投資於美國國債,這不僅為美國的對外軍費開支提供了資金,也為美國國內主要以軍事性質為特征的預算赤字(即軍工複合體)提供了資金。我指出,實際情況是,其他國家別無選擇,隻能依靠本國央行通過循環利用美元,為美國國內的軍費開支提供資金,而不是通過終結美國通過黃金供應對世界經濟的控製來製造災難。赫爾曼·卡恩雇傭了我。我去了哈德遜研究所工作。

他說,你知道,你為什麽指望你在新學院的大約50名研究生最終會……也許有人將來會成為參議員什麽的?如果你加入哈德遜研究所,我會帶你去白宮介紹你,我們會簽合同,你會成為所有這些事情的政府顧問。這似乎很有道理。於是,國防部給了哈德遜研究所一筆8.5萬美元的資助,比我為《超級帝國主義》獲得的預付款要多得多,讓我可以往返於戰爭學院、白宮和其他場所,解釋我剛才說的話。美元本位製,我可以

它取代了金本位,構成了國際金融的國庫券標準,這實際上鎖定了其他國家對美國海外支出的財政支持。脫離金本位實際上取消了對軍事支出的限製。

我和赫爾曼·卡恩在白宮對財政部官員發表過一次演講,我們說,黃金,你可以把它看作是和平的金屬,因為如果其他國家必須用黃金來彌補國際收支赤字,那麽任何發動戰爭的國家,任何在海外需要巨額軍事開支的國家,以及任何需要承擔巨額赤字的國家,都將耗盡黃金,並在以黃金為基礎的體係中失去影響力。

財政部的人立刻說,我們不希望這樣。我們不希望這樣,因為是美國在參戰。是美國幾乎花費了全世界所有的軍事預算。我們不希望黃金在任何美國無法控製的體係中發揮作用。如果我們必須將美元兌換成黃金,我們就無法控製黃金外流。因此,實際上,剝奪其他國家將美元兌換成黃金的能力,意味著它們被納入了金融體係。

正是在那時,美國真正成為了一個帝國,因為整個世界金融體係,也就是它的稅收體係、財政體係、貨幣創造,基本上都由美國財政部指揮,用於資助美國所謂的帝國在世界各地建立800個軍事基地以及發動自20世紀70年代以來一直在進行的戰爭所需的成本。直到今年,其他國家才願意加入這個體係,因為地緣政治的現實促使它們支持美國的軍費開支,同時也因為別無選擇。

如今,隨著特朗普總統和共和黨向國會提交預算案,美國的債務、國內債務以及對外國央行和外國投資者(包括沙特阿拉伯和挪威等私人準政府基金)的外債都已巨額增加。這些投資者已經意識到,各國央行持有的外債本應與黃金等值,是最安全的資產,但卻無力償還。美國不可能、也不會、也不願以某種方式償還其他國家借給美國的資金,這些資金主要是國庫券,但也包括美國機構、房利美和政府機構,這些機構的償還金額略高於財政部,甚至包括沙特阿拉伯和挪威持有的公司證券。美國絕不可能願意償還這些債務,無論是通過出口(因為它已經去工業化,不再提供出口服務)還是將其產業出售給外國買家。

直到今年,美國還一直聲稱,如果外國無力償還財政赤字和國際收支逆差,就必須通過私有化公共設施、向外國人出售基礎設施、出售礦產權、向外國投資者出售土地來彌補。美國不願做它堅持要求其他國家做的事情,因為這是它所創造的世界貿易和投資的基礎。因此,其他國家意識到這種雙重標準,他們實際上並沒有獲得可以轉換成美國工業、農業、基礎設施或其他任何東西所有權的儲蓄。這些隻是紙幣而已。

因此,你們第一次開始尋求美元的替代品。嗯,迄今為止,人們唯一能達成共識的替代品是黃金。1973年,當我和赫爾曼·卡恩訪問白宮時,赫爾曼帶來了一張世界地圖。地圖上標注的是各國政府的信任程度。那些國家包括北歐、整個歐洲、美國、英語國家,以及那些民眾不信任政府的國家。好吧,你可以稱他們為全球大多數。大多數人都不信任政府。

然後,他又提到了支持黃金和商品貨幣的國家。比如印度、亞洲、全球南方國家。他們想要的是安全的東西,而不是欠條。信任紙幣的國家是北歐和英語國家。所以,他們對紙幣的信念就是“債就是債”。這正是美國在第一次世界大戰後開始積累黃金的原則。

但是,美國,尤其是國會麵前的當前預算,卻在說,嗯,是的,債務就是資產負債表上的債務。是的,在資產負債表上,我們欠外國的錢比我們能想到的任何償還方式都要多。但僅此而已。這是一筆永遠無法償還的債務。

這就像你去雜貨店,想用欠條付款,雜貨店會說,你上周欠了不少錢。你知道,你得還。

顧客會說,好吧,我付不起。但你可以用這筆債務,或許可以把這張欠條交給給你提供雞蛋、奶製品或蔬菜的農場。如果這張欠條能作為對顧客的債權流通,那麽從技術上講,它就成了債務。

現在,很多金融體係和世界金融體係都建立在這種無力償還的債務之上。可以說,這正是美國帝國的關鍵所在,因為它是美國能夠在海外擴張,並成為曆史上第一個無需償還戰爭債務或其他欠外國債務的國家的關鍵。這就是美國能夠達到的雙重標準,使其成為一個獨一無二的國家,或者說一個不可或缺的國家。這就是為什麽現在其他國家都在購買黃金,你可以看到金價上漲,以及為什麽他們試圖意識到,我們不能把所有的美元儲備都花在黃金上。

難道我們就不能創造一種由其他國家持有的替代紙幣嗎?金磚國家正在討論這個問題。而這種貨幣不可能由其他國家持有,因為發行一種貨幣需要議會來決定,誰將從這種貨幣中受益?如果你發行這種貨幣,它將被用於什麽用途?誰來花它?

你必須有一個像真正的歐洲那樣的機構來決定誰將獲得正在發行的歐元的收益,隻不過美國創建歐元區的方式,使得它實際上無法維持足夠的赤字來從它現在被迫陷入的經濟衰退中恢複過來。所以,世界正處於進退維穀的境地。這就是我的“超級帝國主義”的全部含義。我嚐試將其更新到現在,但基本主題就是這樣。

格倫·迪森:嗯,我覺得很有意思的是,美國在二戰後最初的強大力量,顯然建立在它作為信用國家的地位之上。當然,還有軍事力量,以及它在世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織和美元體係中的特權地位。但它作為一個赤字國家,其不斷增長的債務成為了進一步鞏固帝國實力的源泉,這很獨特,不是嗎?但無論如何,這似乎一直都隻是一種暫時的模式。我記得在90年代和21世紀初,華盛頓的政治領導人曾認為,實際上,我們的債務是實力的象征。

這表明世界信任我們的經濟和貨幣。然而,如果這種情況不可持續,到某個時候就會碰壁。我今天早上看了看債務時鍾,它已經快要達到37萬億美元了,而且這種增長還在加劇。所以,到了一定時候,你確實需要一些替代方案,而這些方案似乎正在出現。

你也提到了地緣政治的事實。我想,冷戰時期地緣政治的一個事實就是,當時的兩個主要競爭對手,無論是蘇聯還是中國,都是共產主義國家,基本上與這種經濟治國方略脫鉤,而正如你所說,美國在資本主義世界的盟友都必須優先考慮地緣政治的事實。也就是說,你不能容忍太多的經濟爭吵。所以,你知道,當時存在一些激勵機製來防止資本主義工業國家之間像二戰前那樣的競爭。

但是,我們現在要去哪裏呢?因為,再說一次,債務模式似乎已經耗盡,地緣政治的事實也發生了變化。現在,你麵臨的主要競爭對手,無論是中國、俄羅斯還是其他國家,都在擁抱經濟治國之道。我猜,美國帝國的根基是如何被侵蝕的?

邁克爾·赫德森:債務模式尚未耗盡。特朗普發表了多次演講,國會也支持他,稱任何試圖建立美元替代品的國家,我們都會對其征收特別關稅,稅率甚至高達500%。他說,任何試圖從美元轉向中國支付體係的國家都將被視為敵人,我們將阻止他們進入美國市場。他意識到,美國的實力不再是債權國,而恰恰是因為它是一個債務國。

凱恩斯曾開玩笑說,如果你欠銀行一千美元,你就有麻煩了。如果你欠銀行十億美元,銀行就有麻煩了。這就是美國的優勢所在。它欠其他國家太多錢了,如果它不還,比如說,如果它沒收了俄羅斯在美國和布魯塞爾的存款,它就會沒收這些存款,然後這些存款就會消失。債務基本上就被取消了。

美國不願取消那些無力償還的全球南方債務,但它阻止任何國家試圖擺脫美元。

美元化被視為戰爭行為。財政部長早在1974年和1975年就向我解釋過這一點。當時正值石油戰爭爆發,沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克國家將油價翻了兩番,以回應美國將糧食價格翻了兩番。美國告訴他們,如果他們可以隨意定價,美國也同意,因為美國控製著全球大部分石油產業,包括國內石油生產。而且,隨著油價上漲,美國石油公司擁有價格保護傘。

然而,允許歐佩克國家提高油價的條件是,這些國家的所有出口收入都必須回流到美國。這不一定非要以國債的形式,也可以是股票和債券,但隻能是少數股權。所以,我想,沙特國王們買下了道瓊斯工業平均指數中所有股票的10億美元。他們將儲蓄分散到美國債券和股票市場,但這種方式並不涉及任何控製其持有股票公司的權力,這與大多數試圖在公司管理中擁有發言權的股東形成了鮮明對比。這就是我們今天的處境。

想象一下,當沙特阿拉伯、科威特和阿拉伯聯合共和國都持有大量美國證券時,近東地區正在發生什麽。他們目睹了美國攫取俄羅斯的儲蓄。他們目睹了美國通過英國沒收了委內瑞拉的石油黃金儲備和英格蘭銀行。整個過程始於伊朗霍梅尼時代,即伊朗推翻國王的革命,當時伊朗試圖償還其外債的到期利息,而大通曼哈頓銀行拒絕支付。

伊朗被視為違約,並立即被取消抵押品贖回權。其餘持有美國債務的近東國家則深陷其中,不敢采取任何反對美國當前對伊朗軍事行動的行動,因為他們所做的一切,無論是支持巴勒斯坦還是支持伊朗,或任何與美國在近東的外交政策相悖的行為,都會導致美國將這些國家的儲蓄全部收入囊中,並可隨意凍結或沒收。這就是美國作為債務國對其他國家擁有的權力,也是特朗普所說的,今天任何試圖去美元化的行為都是一種戰爭行為,就像50年前各國在1974年或1975年被告知的那樣。

格倫·迪森:嗯,不過還有一個古老的真理,那就是任何過度依賴脅迫的體係最終都會開始,我想,隨著時間的推移,它會逐漸衰敗。還有,嗯,全世界,美國欠全世界的錢,所以美國坐在他們的儲蓄罐裏,不能隨時取用。這似乎隻能在一定程度上發揮作用,我能理解委內瑞拉黃金被盜之類的事情。但看起來,竊取俄羅斯主權基金真的有點太過分了,因為當人們對這個體係失去信任時,它就無法真正發揮作用了。
我們看到,不僅像中國這樣的反對者擔心,因為他們知道永遠無法收回所有資金,而且像印度這樣的國家也擔心二次製裁和其他美國盟友。

那麽,我猜,美國帝國這種新的變化還能持續多久呢?
因為,在我看來,如今推動中國發展的關鍵因素之一正是尋找替代方案,因為他們正在為與美國幾乎永無休止的貿易戰做準備,而且他們無法真正將所有事情都外包出去,從金融穩定到美國的善意。所以,世界其他國家肯定也在尋找替代方案,以擺脫美國的金融控製。

邁克爾·赫德森:嗯,你完美地總結了這個困境。信任已經消失,但目前還沒有其他選擇。所以,你問題的答案是,這個體係還能維持多久,直到出現替代方案。正因如此,美國如今的外交政策,為了維護其所謂的金融帝國以及對世界貿易和投資的控製,其基礎是阻止任何可能出現的替代方案。

顯然,擁有最大國際收支和貿易順差的國家,也就是中國這些產油國,是這種替代方案的合理支持者。正因如此,美國才將中國列為目標,並將任何看起來強大到足以創造替代方案的國家視為敵人。美國試圖通過製裁來阻止和阻止他們創造替代形式的國際貨幣儲蓄,這適得其反,但這是美國的戰略,或者說,試圖組織歐洲外交及其代理人的外交,

衛星試圖以某種方式延緩這種正如你所指出的不可避免的發展。

是的,總有一天美國再也無法享用免費午餐了。阻止免費午餐的第一步是讓其他國家認識到免費午餐的存在,並且他們實際上放棄了失去控製權的資金,實際上資助了美國,如果他們為了確保資金真正物有所值而采取任何行動,美國就會對他們采取激進的行動。問題是,美國控製德國政客、歐洲政客、亞洲政客,尤其是歐佩克國家政客的能力,能在短期內持續多久?

從長遠來看,他們意識到美國做不到。但從短期來看,他們可以采取一些策略。問題在於,他們使用的策略過於強硬,以至於與戰略背道而馳。他們越是采取強製、威脅和欺淩其他國家的手段,就越是在破壞美國真正成為一個足夠有活力的經濟體,從而承諾真正有能力償還其他國家的戰略。

我認為美國的計劃正是特朗普政府所希望的;那就是美國能夠創造互聯網壟斷、計算機壟斷、人工智能壟斷、芯片製造壟斷,並以某種方式利用其壟斷收益扭轉國際收支逆差,重建世界強國。這不過是白日夢,因為要實現技術主導地位,就需要研發。而由於金融部門和企業,那些本應發展這種技術領先地位的私營企業,隻顧眼前利益,他們把大部分收入都用於蘋果和其他國家,並回購自己的股票,以股息的形式支付,以支撐股價。所以,美國經濟金融化的方式實際上削弱了其維持全球金融實力的能力,因為它導致了美國經濟的去工業化,這讓其他國家更加擔心它們投資於美國的儲蓄的去向,以及它們究竟能做些什麽?

所以,你們在過去兩周,也就是上個月看到的情況非常令人驚訝。美國的利率一直在上升,但美元卻一直在貶值。這是曆史上第一次,一個國家,比如美國,在加息後反而虧損。貨幣外流,而不是吸引其他國家流入世界。正如歐洲和亞洲國家所說的,套利,我們可以通過在本國廉價借款,購買這些高收益的美國國債,也就是利率為4.5%的10年期美國國債,來賺取更高的利率。

突然之間,它就失效了。這正是財政部和那些真正在思考如何支付的人感到恐慌的原因。美國正陷入二戰後英國的境地,步履蹣跚,難以生存。不同之處在於,目前,隻要歐洲和近東國家拒絕接受中國、亞洲和俄羅斯作為替代方案,他們就不願意接受任何其他替代方案。這正是這場戰爭的根本原因,美國堅持新冷戰,聲稱中國是我們生存的敵人。我們將試圖通過烏克蘭戰爭耗盡俄羅斯的經濟。

我們正在竭盡全力,破壞其他國家成為美元有吸引力的替代品的能力。這種嚐試是為了維持美元化,阻止去美元化,從而終結國庫券本位,使美國無法從國庫券本位或金本位中獲益。這不僅是理解美國外交的關鍵,也是理解美國當前針對伊朗的軍事行動的一部分,也是其試圖控製整個近東地區的一部分,部分原因是利用以色列作為其代理人,以及敘利亞和伊拉克的“伊斯蘭國”和“基地”組織作為其代理人。這解釋了為何會出現如此看似怪異的國際軍事局勢。

人們會問,伊朗究竟怎麽會對美國構成威脅?它之所以對美國構成威脅,是因為它存在,而美國並沒有將其作為控製整個近東地區以及近東石油從世界其他地區吸引的所有貿易順差的關鍵。正因如此,美國才認為伊朗、伊朗戰爭以及摧毀伊朗符合美國的利益。伊朗的角色是作為美國在近東地區最後一個潛在的替代選擇,可以取代美國控製近東地區,使其淪為附庸國,就像美國多年來一直將拉丁美洲經濟體作為附庸國一樣。

格倫·迪森:但這是擺脫

當前的困境是,要麽在這場新的工業革命中建立一些重要的科技壟斷,要麽在世界各地建立準殖民地。我的意思是,所有這些舉措,即使是樂觀的,似乎也隻是在拖延問題。有哪些可能的路徑?我的意思是,如果你為現在關於超級帝國主義的書寫續集,如果你想要更可持續的發展,美國接下來會走向何方?

因為看起來,科技領導層似乎無法壟斷任何東西,因為中國的存在,還有這些殖民地。顯然,它似乎也無法把伊朗變成殖民地。那麽,我們究竟在關注什麽?好吧,如果你有一個,對學者來說可能不太有吸引力的選擇,但如果你有一章來推測我們未來的發展方向,你會看到什麽?

邁克爾·赫德森:美國保持償付能力經濟體的唯一途徑是放棄試圖用帝國統治世界。帝國不賺錢。這是曆史的教訓。帝國耗費巨資,最終帝國的權力會走向破產,就像英國帝國的解體,最終將其貨幣權力移交給美國一樣。法蘭西帝國也滅亡了。帝國不賺錢。

所以,美國生存的唯一途徑就是再工業化。這意味著經濟去金融化。你說我們活在短期內。我們如何才能邁向長期?金融部門活在短期內。隻要美國經濟的中央計劃從政府轉移到華爾街和其他金融中心,這些金融中心就有三個月到一年的時間框架。

他們關注的是本季度的股價走勢,因為首席財務官和首席執行官的獎金就是基於股價。所以,美國的經濟心態本質上是新自由主義的心態,即活在短期利益中,用經濟手段而不是通過生產性的工業、農業和商業來賺錢。所以,美國必須像所有其他國家一樣,成為一個普通的國家。它必須是一個平等的國家。

美國和其他國家之間必須平等,都遵循同一套規則。這對國會來說是令人厭惡的。這裏仍然存在著一種民族主義,一種民粹主義的民族主義,它聲稱我們不想成為另一個國家。我們不想按照其他國家遵循的規則生活。我們希望繼續主宰其他國家,因為我們擔心,如果其他國家有能力在外交上獨立,他們可能會做出一些我們不喜歡的事情。

隻要你抱有這種心態,你最終就會把自己置於世界其他國家的對立麵。你將失去貿易能力,失去讓你的經濟成為吸引其他國家投資磁石的能力。其他國家不可能在美國投資,指望從美國企業的增長中獲利,因為這種增長純粹是金融性質的。股票、債券、房地產價格、由債務融資的資產價格通脹,製造越來越多的債務來抬高房地產價格、債券價格和股票價格。這就是2008年之後零利率政策的真正目的。

美國已經從工業資本主義經濟轉變為金融資本主義經濟,這種經濟實際上根本不是老式的資本主義,而是純粹的金融經濟。你可以說,它更接近於新封建經濟,而不是英國、德國和美國在二戰後(19世紀末至第一次世界大戰)所形成的那種工業經濟,那種最初賦予它們世界霸權的經濟。那種工業的、生產力的、非金融的強權在西方已不複存在。所以問題不僅在於美國,還在於從美國、西歐及其主要盟友傳播開來的新自由主義經濟理念。因此,美國與中國、亞洲和全球南方國家之間的真正衝突,不僅僅是關於如何保持和保存國際收支盈餘的衝突;而是經濟體係之間的衝突。

其他國家會建立一個非軍事性質的經濟體係嗎?這個體係不以創造金融財富為基礎,而是像中國一樣,通過建設公共基礎設施來構建自身,以實際的工業增長而非尋租為基礎。而這在某種程度上被排除在現有的經濟模式之外。美國已經變成了一個食利經濟,而不是一個工業經濟。它靠金融賺錢。它靠利率賺錢。它通過創造壟斷來賺錢,比如在科技領域。

部門。

但這些都不是基於實際的生產成本和成本。它們全都基於特權和市場的特殊扭曲,這與亞當·斯密、約翰·斯圖爾特·密爾甚至馬克思所探討的完全不同。如今的資本主義形式是古典經濟學家和馬克思都未曾預料到的。他們都認為國家會為了自身利益行事。如果你預測美國將會發生什麽,以及歐洲的替代方案是什麽,並且認為它們會為了自身利益行事,那麽你必須麵對這樣一個事實:這些國家,所有這些國家,沒有一個是為了自身利益行事。

他們所遵循的經濟模式、新自由主義模式、軍事模式和外交製度模式,最終證明並非符合自身利益,而是自我毀滅的。所以我隻能解釋為什麽它是自我毀滅的。我認為,正如你所暗示的,其他國家自然會效仿創造真正的財富,而不是金融財富。中國和俄羅斯的實際GDP增長如此迅速是有原因的。中國和俄羅斯的GDP不包括租金上漲、利息和罰款上漲以及資本利得。這並非金融性質的,而是現實的。

這場鬥爭在於短期內生活在不現實中,還是長期生活在現實中。你打算如何實現這一點?對我來說,我所能做的就是重複我今天剛才對你們說的話。如果人們理解這一點,至少這是嚐試接受帝國替代方案的第一步,任何國家主宰另一個國家的情況都將結束。中國做不到。沒有哪個國家能夠以犧牲世界其他國家為代價而成為一個帝國,除非世界其他國家退縮並嚐試創造替代方案。

格倫·迪森:是的,如今缺乏理性是我主要擔憂之一,因為你確實看到外交政策和經濟政策越來越不受國家利益和理性的左右。但正是這種調整的必要性,讓我對特朗普的總統任期略感樂觀,因為至少他談到了再工業化。至少他談到了美國需要扮演不同的角色。他挑戰了北約擴張主義,而北約擴張主義正是這一霸權體係的一個關鍵體現。

看起來,即使他沒有明確表態,他或多或少直覺地意識到,為了拯救共和國,你必須放棄帝國。所以,他看起來確實意識到了這一點,但當然,他把一切都搞砸了。當然,這次對伊朗的攻擊更是雪上加霜。不過,在我們結束討論之前,您認為短期內會發生什麽,而不是長期內會發生什麽?您提到美國試圖提高利率以吸引資本,但結果卻是資本外逃。那麽,您預計,如果不是在接下來的幾個月或幾周內,會發生什麽?

邁克爾·赫德森:其他國家正在爭相退出,而特朗普的政策正迫使它們走向退出。他的關稅政策本質上是在威脅,如果它們不同意停止與中國的貿易,不拒絕去美元化,不實質上向美國屈服,就剝奪它們進入美國市場的資格。它們不會聽從。而其他國家的反應是,好吧,我們不會接受你們的條件。

如果你們要把關稅提高到40%、60%,那就去做吧。我們當然會的。你們這樣做就是阻止我們與美國進行貿易。我們會對你們征收關稅,然後你們走你們的路。我們走我們的路。所以,如果特朗普本人有什麽計劃的話,我會如何瓦解美國帝國?我會像唐納德·特朗普那樣做。你趕走其他國家,然後刺激他們說,你認為沒有其他選擇嗎?我會對你們采取強硬態度,就像我對俄羅斯、中國、伊朗和中東那樣強硬一樣。我要對你們關閉美國市場。

特朗普說過,如果你們試圖購買收益率為4.5%的美國國債,我將對你們購買的債券收取10%的費用和關稅。所以你們實際上會在債券上虧錢。即使美國真的支付4.5%的利率,美元兌歐元也會下跌。美元兌歐元已經下跌了10%。歐元之前曾一度升至120,現在又回到了接近平價的水平。

其他國家的美元正在貶值,以本國貨幣計算。所以特朗普正在加速這位“客人”的離去。他正在對他們關閉美國市場。這意味著,各位,你們自己行動吧。自己簽訂協議吧。當然會有,盡管美國的附庸國德國、法國和英國的政客們基本上都在投票反對他們自己民眾的投票,就像美國一樣

國會想要對伊朗發動戰爭,這與民意調查中美國人所宣傳的背道而馳。

這種情況不可能持續下去。它必須是暫時的,否則就會引發一場革命。你必須記住,19世紀的工業資本主義本身就是一場革命。為了使英國工業更具競爭力,工業家們必須終結當時最強大的既得利益集團——房地產利益集團——的權力。他們必須戰勝上議院的權力。他們必須改變整個政治體係。他們必須擴大選舉範圍,實現政治民主化。這是一場革命。

這種革命如今正在全球大多數國家中重演。歐洲的工業界必須擺脫封建主義的殘餘。地主階級,以及國際銀行家為幫助國王償還他們欠下的戰爭債務而建立的壟斷企業。而如今,這些都是食利者利益,土地租金、壟斷租金和利息。這正是全球南方和全球大多數國家正在努力解決的問題。這就像歐洲為實現工業化和成為資本主義國家而推翻的封建利益集團,如今卻變成了外國利益集團。

外國投資者擁有他們的原材料租金、自然資源租金和土地租金。外國投資者擁有他們的主要壟斷企業。現在,他們又將公共基礎設施私有化,使其成為壟斷企業,例如英國的泰晤士水務公司,並讓這些國家背負外債,從而獲得利益。如今,其他國家為掌握自身命運、自主權和主權而進行的鬥爭,與歐洲當年反對其從封建主義遺留下來的國內利益的鬥爭非常相似。當今世界,除美國以外的世界,必須麵對這樣一個事實:我們不再有封建主義,而是擁有一個食利者利益的上層建築,而這些利益並非生產經濟的一部分。

我們又回到了亞當·斯密、約翰·斯圖爾特·密爾和馬克思所說的“它們是經濟的兩個組成部分”的立場。有生產經濟,就有食利經濟、流通經濟、金融、工業、房地產和壟斷。我們必須思考:什麽是國民生產總值?什麽是產品?產品真的就是金融部門和房地產部門通過租金賺取的全部收入嗎?還是說產品就是我們實際生產出來的產品,就像中國在沒有食利階級的情況下生產出來的產品?

去美元化之戰實際上就是要消滅這些國家現有的食利階級,而且這些國家也無力償還它們所欠的外債。特朗普的關稅阻止了其他國家獲得足夠的出口收益,從而無法賺取美元來償還債券持有人和欠有美元債務的銀行。所以,這些巨額債務將演變成一場蓄意而為的債務拒付,這些債務是令人厭惡的。因為所有這些債務,都是自1945年以來,在美國主導下,國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行奉行的本質上是掠奪性的親美路線的理念下累積起來的,最終非但沒有幫助其他國家償還債務,反而阻礙了它們償還。如果一個債權國不讓一個債務國通過與其本國產業競爭,實現足夠的出口來償還債務,那麽,無論從經濟還是道德角度來看,這筆外債都無法自立。它是不可持續的。

因此,不僅美國帝國不可持續,而且整個債務的上層建築、壟斷的上層建築、私有化的上層建築,以及撒切爾主義和裏根主義式的世界經濟金融體係,都是不可持續的。所以我們正在應對一場真正的經濟體係衝突。有些人稱之為文明的衝突,但實際上,這是經濟體係的衝突。你可以說,這是19世紀初工業資本主義發展前景與金融資本主義災難性現實之間的矛盾,美國單一地緣政治中心日益以剝削和掠奪的方式為自身利益服務。

格倫·迪森:邁克爾,非常感謝。如果有人想了解更多關於美國帝國經濟戰略及其崩潰原因的信息,請再次閱讀本書簡介,並查找邁克爾·赫德森著作《超級帝國主義》的鏈接。感謝你對這些重要主題的探討,希望很快能再次見到你。

邁克爾·赫德森:格倫,謝謝你給我機會解釋我的哲學。

The Strategic Empire: Debt & the Dollar

https://michael-hudson.com/2025/06/the-strategic-empire-debt-the-dollar/

By   June 28, 2025 Interviews    Permalink

 

GLENN DIESEN: Hi everyone and welcome. Today we are joined by Michael Hudson, Professor of Economy, to discuss the strategies for the American Empire. Now when we look at empire, we often tend to look at military capabilities and deployment but, as we know, empires also require an economic foundation. So to explore this, we’re gonna look into one of Professor Michael Hudson’s great books, which is Super Imperialism, the economic strategy of American Empire. So I will put a link to the book in the description. So please make sure to have a look and yeah welcome back to the program.

MICHAEL HUDSON: Thanks for having me, Glenn.

GLENN DIESEN: And yeah, after we address the, we’ll look at the economic strategy for the American Empire it would be interesting to get your take on how some of these economic foundations are, well, less stable now than they were when your first version of this book came out. But I thought a good place to start would be how you see the, well, what you name one of the sections of your book, the birth of the American World Order. What is the foundation for the economic strategy of the American Empire?

MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, the Americans never attempted, apart from the War of 1898, they have not attempted military overt colonialism in the sense that Europe did. It has turned out to be financial colonialism and financial imperialism. And the actual attempt to create an empire as such wasn’t really implemented until 1944 and 1945, when World War II ended. But the roots of all of it were found at the end of World War I, when the settlement of World War I ended up imposing American demands for repayment of the war debts that the United States had lent to Britain, France, and other allies before the United States had entered the war.

Well, when the war ended, the Europeans expected what would be normal practice and what was the practice after the Napoleonic Wars, for instance, that the Allies would forgive the debts to each other because this was all supposed to be part of the war effort, not only supplying armies, but supplying the funds and the money to buy the arms. But the United States said, well, we agree with you. Of course, we will not think of charging you for all the expenses of the war once we entered it on your side against Germany. But before we entered the war, that was something else. We were a neutral party, and we expect you to pay the war debts that you took on. A debt is a debt.

Well, the Allies then turned on Germany and said, well, we don’t want to have to pay the debts to the United States. Quite frankly, we don’t have the money to pay the debts that the United States has calculated that we owed. We’ll make Germany pay reparations. And by 1921-22, when all of this was set up, that essentially became the rule.

So I have to say that Europe was somewhat complicit in this. All of the European countries, including Germany, believed that a debt was a debt. And if that was the official debt, if it was the reparations imposed on Germany to pay for the war by the Allies against it, it was clearly beyond its ability. All of the parties in Germany, even the Social Democrats and the anti-war parties, agreed that the debts had to be repaid.

Well, we know the result. Germany had only one way to pay because it had lost its main, most productive steel industry, its lands, Alsace de Lorraine. It was financially crippled by the Versailles Treaty. And the only way that it could pay the debts was to throw reichsmarks, its currency, onto the foreign exchange market to buy the dollars, what ended up the dollars, to repay its debts to the Allies that the Allies simply passed on to the United States as their payment of the inter-ally debts. Well, the result is that Germany had hyperinflation. The United States didn’t want to enable Germany to earn the money to pay the Allies and to pay it because that would have threatened American industry.

So the United States passed a tariff against importing currencies with depreciating currencies, namely Germany. So Germany was left without any way of paying. What happened was the American investors lent German cities and local states money to borrow. The cities that borrowed their dollars in order to fund their own local budgets turned the dollars over to the Reichsbank. The Reichsbank used these dollars to pay the Allies, and the Allies paid the United States.

So what was established was a circular flow, and it was all based ultimately on the demand for gold. And America’s buildup of international power between World War I and World War II all reflected its increasing power of gold, against which all of the major currencies were convertible. And during, by the time that Germany collapsed into Nazism, there was a massive flight of capital out of Europe to the United States that led to the U.S. gold supply growing even more. So that by the time World War II ended, the United States controlled the great bulk of the world’s monetary gold. And because Europe was devastated, the United States was also in a position to dictate how the international trade and financial system was going to operate upon the return to peace.

And so the United States used its power to create the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, international trade organizations, and bilateral diplomacy, basically to very quickly absorb what had been the British Empire. The United States had kept the sterling afloat by lending sterling the money to balance its international payments and recover after World War II.

The condition was that Britain had to open the sterling area to let India and other countries that had built up their gold and their sterling balances during World War II to be able to spend these balances, not limited to British industry, but to the United States. And so the United States, basically, there were a number of plans to try to, by John Maynard Keynes, to create some assurance that the post-war order wouldn’t be so unbalanced that all the gold and all the power would flow to the United States.

The United States rejected them. And they created the IMF and the World Bank basically to serve U.S. national interests. I don’t know if you want me to go into the details. For instance, the World Bank was supposed to lend other countries money to develop their economies. But first, Europe, and then what are now the Global South countries, were called developing countries at that time.

But the World Bank policy from World War II, ever down to today, was not to provide loans for countries to be self-sufficient in any kinds of commodities that the United States controlled. And the United States balance of payments since World War II was based very largely on food exports as well as control of the oil industry, as we’re seeing today. And so there was no attempt at all by the World Bank to follow the recommendations of its own economists.

The World Bank undertook a series of country studies and every study that it did of Latin America or the Middle East said, well, you have to have land reform. You have to enable farming to do in these countries what the United States did in the United States with its Agricultural Adjustment Act, very strongly organizing government support of farming to support grain to become independent and be able to feed yourself. That was a prime aim of self-sufficiency, historically. The United States and the World Bank basically made loans to finance international trade dependency on the United States, and that was where the International Monetary Fund came in. The monetary fund applied the same self-destructive economic philosophy that the United States and Europe had followed after World War I.

There was a great debate after World War I between John Maynard Keynes in England and the anti-German economists from France and from the United States, saying, Yes, the debts really are not unpayable. Any country can pay any foreign debt volume at all if it depreciates its currency to such a low point that its exports become competitive. And in practice, the IMF philosophy is if countries simply lowered the cost of labor, it had a labor theory of value, as it were, if countries can impose austerity and cut back government budgets not to run a budget deficit to pump money into the economy, then deflation and low wages will enable these countries to pay their foreign debt. That has been the policy of the International Monetary Fund ever since its foundation in 1945.

And that deflationary austerity philosophy has been largely responsible for preventing the Global South countries and Middle Eastern and Asian countries from finance being able to finance themselves at the same time that they have to pay foreign debts to pay the loans that they had to undertake in order to finance their trade deficits with the United States since World War II. And as these trade deficits have grown and grown and grown, countries have scrambled to obtain the dollars. And in effect, that meant the gold to pay the debts that they had to pay, putting the interests of foreign creditors, the United States government above all, but also United States bondholders and banks above their own domestic development.

Well, you can imagine what happened to threaten this dynamic that the United States had put in place to make essentially to make itself the beneficiary of the division of labor and the specialization of production between the United States as the leading industrial nation and other countries as suppliers of raw materials to it and low-wage manufacturers. There was what was called a dual economy structure. One economy for the United States and to a lesser extent Europe, and the other economy of the Global South countries and countries that were not self-sufficient. Well, what ended all of this started in 1950-51 with the Korean War.

Between 1945 and 1950, the United States gold stock had actually increased to 80% of the world’s monetary gold. Now, that meant that the United States owning gold and the insistence that all the currencies of major countries be defined in terms of gold meant that the United States had an overwhelming financial power. In 1950, for the first time, the United States moved into a balance of payments deficit as a result of its military spending connected to the Korean War. And from the 1950s on, right down through the end of the 1970s, the United States moved into balance of payments deficit that was settled by having to pay gold to the countries that were receiving the dollars that the United States was throwing off. And the entire deficit was a result of military spending.

I worked first for the Chase Manhattan Bank as their balance of payments analyst, and then for Arthur Anderson, the accounting firm, analyzing the U.S. balance of payments, showing that the entire deficit was military in character. Well, you can imagine what happened during the Vietnam War of the late 1960s. When I was at Chase, every Friday morning, we would look at the Federal Reserve reporting of what is the U.S. gold stock doing this week. How much gold did America have to send to France when General de Gaulle was receiving the dollars that America was throwing off in what had been French Indochina, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos? These dollars were all sent to France that were cashed in for gold by France.

Well, Germany was also obtaining a lot of dollars that other countries receiving, American military spending, were spending on German industrial exports. So we would watch, week by week by week, the claims on the American gold stock rising. And it was obvious that if America’s Cold War spending continued at the rate it was going then, at some point, it would run out of enough gold that was needed to legally cover the U.S. paper currency. Every dollar prior to 1971, the dollar bills that you had in your pocket had to be backed 25% by the gold supply. And by 1971, President Nixon realized that this was no longer the case.

He closed the gold window and said, we cannot afford to pay the cost of our military spending in Asia and the whole world in gold anymore. There was some panic within the United States government. Well, a year after, almost to the month, a year after the United States went off gold in August 1971, my Super Imperialism was published in, I think, August, September 1972. And it turned out that the largest purchasers, I’m told, were the CIA and the Defense Department, who’d bought it through the Washington bookstores.

And my friends at Drexel Burnham, the investment bankers, came to me and said, look, what are you doing in academia? We’re going to invite you to address our annual meeting. Herman Kahn will be there. He’s going to love your presentation and he’s going to offer you a job. Accept it, leave academia.

So indeed, I explained to them that the ending of America’s payment in gold did not have to mean the end of American power. Just the opposite, that once foreign countries no longer could use their dollars to spend on U.S. gold, they had only one practical choice, given the arrangement of international financial diplomacy at the time. What did they use their dollars for? They bought the safest investment there was, U.S. Treasury securities, Treasury bonds, Treasury bills.

And so what happened was, as the United States spent military spending abroad, it got the recipients, the, turned their dollars over to the central banks for their own local currency. The central banks invested these dollars in U.S. Treasury securities, and that financed not only foreign military spending by the United States, but it financed the budget deficit that within the United States was primarily military in character, the military-industrial complex. And I pointed out that what had happened was that, instead of being a disaster by ending the United States control of the world economy through its gold supply, other countries really had no alternative but to have their own central banks themselves finance U.S. military spending domestically by recycling their dollars. Well, Herman Kahn hired me. I went to work for this Hudson Institute.

He said, you know, why are you hoping that your classes of maybe 50 graduate students at the New School are going to end up, maybe somebody’s going to be a senator or something later. If you join the Hudson Institute, I’ll take you to the White House and introduce you and we’ll get a contract and you’ll become a government advisor in all of this. And it seemed to make sense. And so the Defense Department gave the Hudson Institute an $85,000 grant, much more than I’d gotten as an advance for Super Imperialism, for me to go back and forth to the War College and to walk to the White House and other venues to explain what I just said. That the U.S. dollar standard, which I called the Treasury Bill Standard of international finance, had replaced the gold standard and that essentially locked other countries into the financial support of Americans spending abroad. And that going off gold essentially removed the limit on military spending.

I gave one talk at the White House to Treasury officials with Herman Kahn, and we said, gold is, you can think of it as the peaceful metal, because if other countries have to pay their balance of payments deficits in gold, any country waging war, any country entailing a very major military expenditure abroad and to fight a war, always entails running a big deficit, is going to have to run out of gold and lose its power in a system that’s based on gold.

Well, immediately the Treasury people said, well, we don’t want that. We don’t want because it’s America that is going to war. It’s America that’s spending almost all of the world’s military budget. And we don’t want gold to play a role in any system that the United States cannot control. And we can’t control gold outflows if we have to convert our dollars into gold. So, actually, to deprive other countries of any ability to cash in their dollars into gold means they’ve been co-opted into a financial system.

And it’s at that point that America truly became an empire because the entire world’s financial system and it was therefore its tax system, its fiscal system, its money creation was basically directed by the U.S. Treasury to finance the costs of what America claimed were the needs of its empire in creating its 800 military bases all over the world and then waging the wars that it’s been fighting since the 1970s. And that is until this year, other countries were willing to be part of this system because the facts of geopolitics led them to support U.S. military spending, but also because there wasn’t an alternative.

Well, today, with President Trump’s budget that he and the Republicans have sent to Congress, the American debt, domestic debt has been so great, and it’s foreign debt to foreign central banks and to foreign investors, including private quasi-government funds, such as Saudi Arabia and Norway, have realized that the foreign debt that central banks hold that was supposed to be as good as gold and the safest asset to buy, cannot be paid. There is no way that the United States can or would or is willing to somehow pay the amount of money that other countries hold as loans to the United States, mainly treasury bills, but also U.S. agencies, Fannie Mae, government agencies pay a little bit more than the Treasury, and even corporate securities such as Saudi Arabia holds and Norway holds. There is no way that America is willing to pay these debts, either by exporting because it’s deindustrialized and it’s not running an export service anymore, or by selling off its industry to foreign buyers.

The United States until this year,a has said that if foreign countries could not pay their finances and their balance of payments deficits, they had to do so by privatizing their public utilities, selling off their infrastructure to foreigners, selling off their mineral rights, selling off their land to foreign investors. The United States is not willing to do what it’s insisted that other countries do as the basis of world trade and investment that it’s created. So other countries realize this double standard, that they’re really not getting savings that can be converted into ownership of U.S. industry or agriculture or infrastructure or anything else. They’re just paper dollars.

And so for the first time, you’re having a move to seek an alternative to the U.S. dollars. Well, the only alternative so far that people can agree upon is gold. And when Herman Kahn and I went to the White House in 1973, Herman brought a map of the world. And there was a map of countries that trusted governments. And that was Northern Europe, Europe as a whole, the United States, the English-speaking countries, countries whose populations did not trust governments. Well, you could call them the global majority. Most people didn’t.

Then he had countries that supported gold and commodity money. Well, there were countries like India, Asia, Global South countries. They wanted something secure, not an IOU. The countries that trusted paper money were Northern Europe and the English-speaking countries. So you have this faith in paper money that is “A debt is a debt.” And that was the principle on which America began to accumulate gold after World War I.

But the United States, certainly the current budget that is before Congress, is saying, well, yes, a debt is a debt on the balance sheet. Yes, on the balance sheet, we owe foreign countries more money than there’s any way we can see can be repaid. But that’s it. It’s a debt that will never be repaid.

It’s as if you went to the grocery store and tried to pay in an IOU, and the grocery store would say, well, you run up quite a tab in the last week. You know, you got to pay it. And the customer will say, well, I can’t pay. But you can use this debt to maybe you can give this IOU to the farm that’s giving you the eggs and the dairy or the vegetables that you’re selling. And somehow, if only this IOU could be circulated as a claim on the customer, then it would be, technically, it’s a debt.

Well, a lot of the financial system and the world financial system are now based on that kind of debt that there’s no ability to pay behind it. And that is what has become the key, you could say, to the American empire, because it’s the key to America’s ability to spend abroad and be really the first nation in history that does not have to pay its war debts or other debts that it has run up to foreign countries. That’s the double standard that America has been able to achieve to make it the unique nation, or the indispensable nation. And that is why, right now, other countries are buying gold, and you can see the gold price going up and why they’re trying to realize, well, we can’t spend all of our dollar holdings on gold.

Isn’t there some way we can create an alternative paper currency owed by other countries? Well, you have the BRICS talking about that. And you really can’t have such a currency by other countries because to issue a currency, you need a parliament to say, well, who’s going to get the benefit of this currency? And if you issue the currency, what’s it going to be spent on? Who’s going to spend it?

You’d have to have something like a real Europe deciding who’s going to get the result of Euros that are being created, except the United States created the Eurozone in a way that it really can’t run enough of a deficit to recover from the downturn that it’s now been forced into. So, the world is in a quandary. And that’s what my Super Imperialism is all about. And I’ve tried to update it to the present, but that’s the basic theme.

GLENN DIESEN: Well, I find this to be fascinating that the U.S., initially, the massive power after World War II, was obviously based on America’s position as a credit nation. And obviously, yeah, the military forces, privileged position in the World Bank, IMF, and the U.S. dollar. But it’s quite unique, though, isn’t it, that it became its, as a deficit country, its growing debt became the source for further imperial strength. But nonetheless, this seems to have always been a temporary model. I do remember back in the 90s and early 2000s when you had political leaders in Washington arguing that, well, actually, our debt is a sign of strength.

It shows that the world trusts our economy and trusts our currency. However, this, if it’s not sustainable, at some point you’ll hit a wall. And I looked at the debt clock this morning and it’s almost running into 37 trillion and this rise has only intensified. So at some point you do need alternatives which appear to be emerging.

You also mentioned, you said facts of geopolitics. I guess one of the facts of geopolitics during the Cold War was simply that the main two rivals, be it the Soviets and the Chinese, were Communist states, largely decoupled from this kind of economic statecraft, while the allies of the United States in the capitalist world all had to prioritize, as you said, the facts of geopolitics. That is, you couldn’t really allow too many economic squabbles to go along. So, you know, there were some incentives to prevent rivalry between the capitalist industrial nations as you’ve had prior to World War II.

But where are we heading now, though? Because, again, the debt model seems to have exhausted itself and the facts of geopolitics have changed. Now you have the key rivals, be it China, Russia, and others, who are also embracing economic statecraft. How are the foundations, I guess, of the American empire eroding?

MICHAEL HUDSON: The debt model has not exhausted itself. And Trump has given a number of speeches, and Congress has backed him up, saying any country that is moving to establish an alternative to the dollar, we’re going to hit with special tariffs, up to 500% even. He said, any attempt by countries to shift out of the dollar to the Chinese payment system towards China will be treated as an enemy and we will block their access to the United States market. What he’s, he realizes that America’s power is no longer a creditor country, but its power is precisely because it’s a debtor country.

Keynes made a joke saying that if you owe a thousand dollars to a bank, then you’re in trouble. If you owe a billion dollars to the bank, the bank’s in trouble. And that’s the United States’ strength. It owes so much money to other countries that if it doesn’t pay, for instance, if it grabs the Russian savings that were held in the United States and in Brussels, it’ll confiscate it, then the savings, poof, disappear. The debt is basically annulled.

The United States is unwilling to annul Global South debt that can’t be paid, but it has any attempt by countries to break away from the United States dollar and the dollarization is treated as an act of war. Now, that was explained to me by the Treasury Secretary, already in 1974 and 75, with the oil war when Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries quadrupled the price of oil in response to the United States quadrupling the price of grain. And the United States told them that if they could charge whatever price of oil they wanted to, that was fine with the United States because the United States controlled much of the world’s oil industry, including domestic oil production. And the United States oil companies had a price umbrella as the price of oil went.

However, the condition for letting OPEC countries raise the price of oil was that all of their export earnings would be recycled into the United States. It didn’t have to be only in treasury securities. It could be in stocks and bonds, but only a minority ownership. So the Saudi kings bought, I think, a billion dollars of every stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They spread their savings over the U.S. bond and stock market in a way that did not involve any ability to control the companies whose stocks they owned, in contrast to most stockholders who try to have some voice in the company’s management. So that’s the situation we have today.

Imagine what’s happening in the Near East now when Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Republics all own and have huge holdings of U.S. securities. They’ve seen the United States grab Russia’s savings. They’ve seen the United States through England confiscate Venezuela’s oil gold holdings and the Bank of England. And the whole process began with the Iranian Khomeini, the Iranian revolution against the Shah, when Iran tried to pay the interest due on its foreign debt and Chase Manhattan refused to make the payment.

Iran was counted as default and immediately foreclosed upon. The rest of the Near Eastern countries that are major holders of American debt are locked in to, they’re fearful of acting in any way that would oppose the current fight U.S. buildup against Iran because anything they do, whether it’s to support the Palestinians or to support Iran or anything that is at odds with U.S. diplomacy in the Near East, would result in the United States holding all of their savings in its own pocket under their control, able to freeze them or confiscate them at will. That’s the power that America has as a debtor over other countries and that’s why Trump has said, any attempt to de-dollarize is an act of war today just as they were told 50 years ago in countries were told way back in 1974, 75.

GLEN DIESEN: Well, there’s also an old truth though that is any system which becomes too dependent on coercion will eventually begin to, I guess, degrade over time and there’s, well, the whole thing that the whole world, that America owes money to the whole world so America sits on their piggy bank or their savings and can’t take it whenever they want. It’s it seems as if it only works to such an extent and I can appreciate the theft of Venezuelan gold and all of this. But it looked as looked as if the stealing of the Russian sovereign funds was really one step too far because when there’s no trust anymore in the system, it can’t really work.
And we see not just the opponents such as China being worried because they know they’re never going to get all their money back but also countries like India are concerned about secondary sanctions and other American allies.

So, how long can this, I guess, a new changing character of the American empire continue?
Because, well, from my perspective, one of the key things driving China these days is exactly the search for alternatives because they are preparing themselves for an almost never-ending trade war with the United States, and they can’t really outsource everything from their financial stability to the goodwill of the United States. So, surely the rest of the world is looking for alternatives to escape U.S. financial control.

MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, you’ve summarized the dilemma perfectly. Trust is gone, but so far there’s no alternative. So, the answer to your question is to how long this system can last until there’s an alternative. And that’s why the United States’ foreign policy, now, to maintain what you could call its financial empire and control of world trade and investment is based on preventing any alternative that might come, be developed.

Obviously, the countries running the strongest balance of payments and trade surpluses are the logical sponsors of such an alternative, China, oil-producing countries. This is why the United States has designated China, and any country that looks powerful enough to create an alternative is viewed as an enemy. And the U.S. tries to prevent and preempt their creating an alternative form of international monetary savings by imposing sanctions on them, which are counterproductive, but it’s the United States strategy, or trying to organize European diplomacy and diplomacy of its proxies and satellites to somehow delay this development that, as you point out, it’s inevitable.

Yes, someday the United States cannot get a free lunch anymore. And the first step in preventing a free lunch is for other countries to recognize that there is a free lunch and that they’re essentially giving up money that loses their control over it and actually funds the United States willing to take aggressive actions against them if they do anything to try to ensure real value for their money. Well, the question is, how long can the U.S. ability to control German politicians, European politicians, Asian politicians, especially OPEC country politicians, how long can it actually threaten them to live in the short run?

In the long run, they realize the U.S. cannot do it. But living in the short run, they can do tactics. The problem is that the tactics that they’re using are so heavy-handed that they’re the opposite of strategy. The more they go to tactics of enforcing and threatening and bullying other countries, the more they’re destroying the strategy of actually making the United States a sufficiently viable economy to promise to actually have something to repay other countries with.

I think the U.S. plan is what the Trump administration hoped for; it is that America can create an internet monopoly, a computer monopoly, an artificial intelligence monopoly, a chipmaking monopoly, and somehow use its monopoly earnings to reverse the balance of payments deficit and reestablish world power. That’s a pipe dream because, in order to achieve technological dominance, you need research and development. And because the financial sector and corporations, the private corporations that are supposed to be developing this technological lead, live in the short run, they’re using most of their income for Apple and the other countries and buying off their own stocks and paying out as dividends to support their stock prices. So, the way in which the American economy is being financialized is actually undercutting its ability to maintain its financial power over the world because it’s resulted in deindustrializing the United States economy, which makes other countries feel even more queasy about what’s happening to their savings invested here and what on earth can they do?

So, what you’ve seen in the last two weeks, last month, is something very surprising. The United States’ interest rates have been going up and up, but the dollar has been going down. This is the first time in history that when a country has raised its interest rates, like the United States, it actually loses. There’s an outflow of currency instead of attracting other countries to the world. Arbitrage, as European and Asian countries say, well, we can make a higher interest rate by borrowing cheap in our countries and buying these high-yielding Treasuries, 10-year Treasury securities at 4.5% interest.

Well, all of a sudden, it doesn’t work anymore. And that is what is panicking the Treasury and people who are actually trying to figure out how are we going to pay. The United States is turning into the condition that England was in after World War II of limping along and being unable to survive. The difference is that there, right now, is no alternative that European and Near Eastern countries are willing to accept as long as they refuse to accept China and Asia and Russia as an alternative. That’s exactly what is underlying the war, of America’s insistence of the new Cold War, saying that China is our existential enemy. We are going to try to drain Russia’s economy by the war in Ukraine.

We’re doing everything we can to disrupt the ability to other countries to be an attractive alternative to the dollar. This attempt to maintain dollarization and prevent de-dollarization and therefore ending the Treasury Bill standard in a way that America cannot benefit either from the Treasury Bill standard or a gold standard. This is the key to understanding not only American diplomacy, but the American military action against Iran today is part of its attempt to control the entire Near East, partly using Israel as its proxy and ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq as its proxies. This is the key to why you have such a seemingly bizarre international military situation.

How on earth would it can, people are saying, how is Iran a threat to the United States? Well, it’s a threat to the United States because it exists, and the United States does not control it as the key to controlling the overall Near East and all of the balance of trade surplus that Near Eastern oil draws in from the rest of the world. That’s what makes the United States think of Iran, the war in Iran, and the destruction of Iran as being in the United States’ interest. It’s the role of Iran as the last potential alternative in the Near East to U.S. control of making the Near East a client economy, like it has made Latin American economies clients for so many years.

GLENN DIESEN: But this is the only path out of the current dilemma that is either establish some important tech monopolies in this new industrial revolution or establish, I guess, quasi-colonies around the world. I mean, it just appears that all of these initiatives, even if one is optimistic, amounts to just kicking the can down the road. What are possible pathways? I mean, if you wrote a sequel to your book now on super imperialism, where could the United States go from here if you want something more sustainable?

Because it appears that the tech leadership is not going to monopolize anything with the presence of China and it’s also these colonies. Obviously, it’s not going to be able to make a colony out of Iran either, it seems. So, what exactly are we looking at? Well, if you had a, not an attractive option for an academic, but if you had a chapter of future speculation where we’re heading, what would you see?

MICHAEL HUDSON: The only way that the United States can remain a solvent economy is to give up the attempt to run the world with an empire. Empires do not pay. That’s the lesson of history. Empires cost a lot of money, and in the end, the imperial power goes broke, just as Britain went broke with its empire, ending up turning its monetary power over to the United States. The French Empire went under. Empires don’t pay.

So the only way the United States can exist is re-industrializing. That means definancializing its economy. You point out that we’re living in the short run. How do we move to the long run? The financial sector lives in the short run. As long as the United States economy has shifted its central planning away from government to Wall Street and to the other financial centers, these financial centers have a timeframe of three months to a year.

They’re looking at what is the stock price doing for this quarter, because that’s what the bonuses of the chief financial officer and the CEOs are based on: their stock price. So you’re having an economic mentality in the United States that is essentially the neoliberal mentality of living in the short run, making money financially instead of in a productive industrial, agricultural, and commercial way. So the United States would have to be just another country, like all other countries. It would have to be an equal.

There would have to be parity between the United States and other countries, all following the same set of rules. That is anathema to Congress. There’s still a nationalism and a populist nationalism here that says we don’t want to be another country. We don’t want to have to live by the rules that other countries live by. We want to continue to be able to dominate other countries because we worry that if other countries have the ability to become independent diplomatically, they may do something that we don’t like.

Well, as long as you have this mentality, you’re going to end up setting yourself against the rest of the world. You’re going to lose your ability to trade and make your economy an investment magnet for other countries. There’s no way that other countries can invest in the United States with the hope of making money from American corporate growth because the growth that’s occurring is only financial in character. Stocks and bonds, real estate prices, asset price inflation financed by debt, creating more and more debt to bid up the price of real estate, bid up the price of bonds, and bid up the price of stocks. That’s what the zero interest rate policy was all about after 2008.

The United States has been transformed from an industrial capitalist economy into a finance capitalist economy that actually is not old-fashioned capitalism at all, but is purely financial. You could say it’s closer to a neo-feudal economy than to the kind of industrial economy that Britain, Germany, and the United States were becoming after World War, at the end of the 19th century, up to World War I, the kind of economy that gave them all of their world power in the first place. That kind of industrial, productive, non-financial power no longer exists in the West. So the problem’s not only the United States, it’s the neoliberal economic philosophy that has spread from the United States, Western Europe, and America’s major allies. So the real conflict between the United States and let’s say China, Asia, and the Global South is not simply a conflict over how they’re going to hold and save their balance of payment surpluses; it’s a conflict of economic systems.

Are other countries going to create an economic system that is not military in character, that does not base itself on making financial wealth, but makes itself by creating public infrastructure, such as China does, base itself on actual industrial growth, not rent-seeking. And that’s sort of been left out of the economic models that are made. America’s turned into a rentier economy, not an industrial economy. It makes money financially. It makes money for interest rates. It makes money by creating monopolies, such as in the tech sector.

But none of these are based on the actual cost of production and cost. It’s all based on special privileges and special distortions of the market away from everything that Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill and even Marx talked about. What you have today is a form of capitalism that none of the classical economists or Marx anticipated. They all thought countries are going to act in their self-interest. And if you’re forecasting what is going to happen to the United States and what the alternative is for Europe, and you think, well, they’ll act in their self-interest, you have to deal with the fact that countries are, none of these countries are acting in their own self-interest.

They’re acting in an economic model, a neoliberal model, a military model, a diplomatic institutional model that turns out not to be in their self-interest, but is self-destructive. So all I can do is explain why it’s self-destructive. And I think that the natural tendency, as I think you’ve hinted at, is for other countries to follow the creation of real wealth, not financial wealth. And there’s a reason why China has been growing so rapidly with its real GDP and Russia with its GDP. China’s GDP and Russia’s GDP does not include an increase in rents, an increase in interest and financial penalties, and capital gains. It’s not financial in character. It’s real in character.

The fight is between living in unreality in the short run or reality in the long term. How are you going to bring that about? For me, all I can do is say what I’ve just said to you today. If people understand this, at least that’s step one in trying to accept the alternative that the empire is, any country dominating another country is over. China would not be able to do it. No country is able to be an empire at the rest of the world’s expense without the rest of the world pulling back and trying to create an alternative.

GLENN DIESEN: Yeah, the lack of rationality these days is one of my main concerns because you do see foreign policy and economic policy being less and less dictated by national interest and reason. But this was the need to adjust is one of the reasons I was a bit optimistic about Trump’s presidency, because at least he talked about reindustrialization. At least he talked about the need for the US to have a different role. He challenged NATO expansionism, which was a key manifestation of this hegemonic system.

It looked as if he kind of, if he didn’t put words on it, more or less intuitively recognized that, you would have to let go of the empire in order to save the republic. So he, it looked as if he was, but, of course, he made a mess out of everything. And of course, this attack on Iran now makes it even more so. But yeah, well, before we wrap this up, what do you think is, not the long term, is going to happen now in the short term? You mentioned that the United States attempts to raise interest rates to attract capital, but instead you have capital flight. So how, what do you expect, if not over the months to come, the weeks to come?

MICHAEL HUDSON: Other countries are running for the exit and Trump’s policies are driving them to the exit. His tariff policy essentially threatens to deny them the U.S. market if they don’t agree to stop trading with China, to refuse to de-dollarize, and essentially to surrender their economies to U.S. directions. They’re not going to do it. And the response by other countries is going to say, well, we’re not going to accept your terms.

If you’re going to raise the tariffs to 40%, 60%, do it. Of course, we will. What you’re doing is stopping us from trading with the United States. We’ll have tariffs against you, and you go your way. We’re going ours. So Trump himself is, if there were any plans of any plans, how do I break up the American empire? I would do just exactly what Donald Trump is doing. You drive other countries away and you prod them to say, you think there’s no alternative? I’m going to be so aggressive towards you, just as I’m aggressive towards Russia, towards China, towards Iran and the Middle East. I’m closing the U.S. market to you.

Trump has said that if you try to move your, to buy U.S. Treasury bonds yielding 4.5%, I’m going to charge a fee and a tariff fee on your buying bonds of 10%. So you’ll actually lose money on the bonds. And even if the United States does pay 4.5%, the dollar will be falling against the Euro. It’s fallen 10% against the Euro already. The Euro was up to 120 before. Now it’s back near parity.

Other countries are losing in their own currency the valuation of the dollars they have. So Trump is speeding up the parting guest. He’s closing off the U.S. market to them. And that means go it alone, folks. Make your own agreement. And certainly there will be, despite the fact that the politicians of America’s client countries, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, Britain, are all basically voting against what their own populations vote for, just as American Congress in wanting to press for war in Iran is voting against what the opinion polls sold the Americans for.

This cannot last. It has to be temporary or there’ll be a revolution. And you have to remember that industrial capitalism itself in the 19th century was revolutionary. In order for British industry to become competitive, the industrialists had to end the power of the most powerful vested interests of their day, the real estate interests. They had to overcome the power of the House of Lords. They had to change the whole political system. They had to widen the vote to democratize politics. That was a revolution.

This is the kind of revolution that is recurring today in the global majority countries. Industry in Europe had to throw off the remnants of feudalism. The landlord class, the monopolies that had been created by international bankers to help kings pay the war debts that they ran up. Well, today, these were all rentier interests, land rent, monopoly rent, and interest. This is the problem that the Global South and global majorities are fighting. It’s like the equivalent of what were the feudal interests that Europe overthrew to industrialize and become capitalist countries, are today, foreign interests.

Foreign investors own their raw material rents, their natural resource rent, their land rent. Foreign investors own their major monopolies. And now that they’ve privatized public infrastructure into monopolies, like Thames Water in England, and run these countries into foreign dollar debt so that they own interest. The fight by other countries today to gain control of their own destiny, their own autonomy, their own sovereignty is very similar to the fight that Europe had against its own domestic interests that were carried over from feudalism. The world today, the rest of the world outside of the United States, has to cope with the fact that we don’t have feudalism anymore, but what we have is a superstructure of rentier interests that are not part of the production economy.

We’re back in the position of Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill and Marx saying, they’re two parts of the economy. There’s a production economy, and then there’s the rentier economy, the circulation economy, finance, industry, real estate, and monopolies. There has to be a way of thinking about, what is gross national product? What is a product? Is a product really all the money that the financial sector and the real estate sector makes in rents, or is it what we actually produce, like what China is producing without a rentier class?

The fight of de-dollarization is really involves getting rid of the rentier class that these countries have, and also they cannot afford to pay the foreign debt that they’ve run up. Trump’s tariffs prevent other countries from earning enough export returns to earn the dollars to pay the bondholders and banks that have debts owed in U.S. dollars. So they’re going to be huge defaults that turn into a very conscious and deliberate debt repudiation of what are odious debts, because all these debts that have been run up since 1945 as a result of a U.S.-sponsored philosophy of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank on essentially predatory pro-U.S. lines have ended up not helping other countries pay, but preventing them from paying. And if a creditor country will not let a debtor country pay by exporting enough in competition with its own industry, then there’s no economic or moral claim that this foreign debt is a viable debt. It’s unviable.

So not only is the American empire unviable, but the whole superstructure of debt, the superstructure of monopolies, the superstructure of privatization and financial Thatcherizing and Reaganizing the world economy are unviable. So we’re dealing with a real clash of economic systems. Some people call this a clash of civilizations, but it’s really a clash of economic systems. And you could say it’s between the promise of industrial capitalism as it was developing in the beginning in the 19th century and the disastrous reality of finance capitalism with a single geopolitical center in the United States run increasingly in its own interest in exploitative, predatory fashion.

GLENN DIESEN: Well, Michael, thank you so much. And for anyone who wants to know more on the economic strategy for the American Empire and also why this is collapsing, again, go to the description and look for the link to Michael Hudson’s book, Super Imperialism. So thank you for going through these important topics and I hope to have you back on soon.

MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, thank you for giving me a chance to explain my philosophy, Glenn.

Transcription and Diarization: hudsearch
Editing and Review: Chris Platania-Phung

Photo by Brandon Griggs on Unsplash

When Tariffs Replace Strategy

Krugman Clings to Currency Tropes

he QE Quandry

Super-Imperialism at the Pentagon

Venezuela as the pivot for New Internationalism?

Trump’s Brilliant Strategy to Dismember U.S. Dollar Hegemony

[ 打印 ]
評論
目前還沒有任何評論
登錄後才可評論.