風蕭蕭_Frank
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法定暴力團山口組 暴力打造日本人彬彬有禮
李洪德 2025年19月25日
https://blog.creaders.net/user_blog_diary.php?did=NTMwMTgz
本文擴展於我在2015年10月12日發表在網易博客上的文章《山口組公開存在的組織特性和社會價值》，網易博客已經被主辦方關閉，失去原始鏈接。
今天，想起這篇文章，起因於中國老年人唯我獨尊的行為，中華文明的基石-儒家價值體係已經被摧毀，人們怨聲載道，法律成擺設，政府無能為力。
這不是小事，是延續500年的中華民族被摧毀的前兆，敵人是自己錯誤的教育體係和人為摧毀的法律體係獸性化的國民。為此，我一直思考這個問題。
2023年2月9日，我曾經寫了文章《為什麽中國人智商IQ遠遠高於他人》，啟迪於2020年的文章 Lifelong antisocial behaviour linked to brain structure differences：新西蘭人口研究發現，23%的少年減至12%成年，是終身持續反社會，這種人大腦的360個區域的282個表麵積少11個皮層薄，涉及支配反社會行為的目標導向、調節情緒和動機。
我認為，對社會治理而言，最有害的不是那些持續反社會的人，其危害具有局限性。危害最大的是那些介於正常和反社會之間的人，尤其是那些接近正常的人，具有很強的欺騙性，極易掌控政府作惡，這是高等動物生活在低等動物狀態的主因。
我想起去過日本的同胞表揚日本人彬彬有禮。然而，同胞們不知道，日本人這德行不是天生高素質，而是政府支持的黑社會--暴力團山口組，用暴力手段強製馴服的結果。如果，日本人犯錯，被山口組發現，會被強迫到無人處，賞個鼻青臉腫。
還有華人的驕傲李光耀打造的花園城市新加坡，人人遵紀守法，建設和保護花園國家。這也不是新加坡人素質高，而是，保留英國人殖民統治時期的鞭刑的功勞。誰膽敢違反社會公德，破壞花園城市，一鞭一道血口留下疤痕，終生提醒不再犯。
2022年6月17日，中國未來的國運：中國政法大學馬克思主義學院的郭繼承教授說，中華文明從宋朝起千年衰落，重新崛起，已經站在世界文明的頂端，必須文化立國，創建脫離西方文化的全新文明。可是，文明的根基，儒家文明已經被摧毀。
2023年10月30日，我曾經寫文章《王滬寧的恐懼與努力 國魂爭奪之戰》，啟迪於美國作家 N.S. Lyons 的文章The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning：王滬寧是中共最頂尖意識形態理論家，三代領導人的帝師，習近平的每個標誌性政治概念都是他提出來的，"中國夢"、反腐運動、"一帶一路"倡議、甚至"習近平思想"。王出版近20本書和大量論文；其思想與當今中國正在發生的事情之間存在明顯的連續性，說明北京是通過王滬寧的眼睛看世界。
1988年,33歲的王滬寧以前所未有的速度成為複旦大學最年輕的正教授，獲獎訪美6個月，結論：美國自由主義泛濫；放任公司接管政府職能，過度商品化，導致社會價值體係崩潰，製度必將隨之坍塌。此發現讓他永久地放棄了先前的、從自由民主取得有益借鑒的幻想。1989年回到中國，被晉升為複旦大學國際政治係主任，成為西方自由化的砥柱反對者。
1993年，王滬寧帶領複旦大學辯論隊，在新加坡的國際競賽中，以人性本惡論點擊敗台大隊:"西方現代文明雖然可以帶來物質繁榮，但是，並不一定能帶來人的品格改善"，贏得廣泛讚譽，40歲時，被江澤民任命為中央政策研究室主任,進入國家最高權力梯隊。
後來與習近平一起，堅決抵製西方自由主義文化入侵，堅持中國共產黨中央集權，堅持國有經濟主導的市場經濟，走共同富裕。發動各級政府、企業和個人對口扶持貧困地區，讓8億多同胞脫貧。如今，衰敗的西方映照抵製西方自由主義文化入侵的先見之明。
然而，在中國，阻當西方文化入侵早已失敗。雖然，在政治和意識形態方麵看似成功，其實中國的教育和法律體係，在新中國建國後就被西方文化接管。如今，中國數千年的立國根基---儒家價值體係已經被徹底摧毀。看看眾多老年人的行為,既沒有中國儒家意識,又沒有西方守法素質,廣場舞擾民，碰瓷敲詐，暴走團癱瘓交通，倚老賣老，幹盡邪惡。
情況更加糟糕的是，這些年，巨資送大量孩子出國，到西方接受教育，被禽獸西方文化洗腦獸性化, 回到祖國，竊取了國家攸關行政機關的領導崗位，在實際行動上，推行被西方教育灌輸的獸性文化，利用西方的獸性文化，製定政策和法律，徹底摧毀祖國。
同胞在自己的祖國，被壞人遍布欺詐的陷阱，手段越來越邪惡，防不勝防，隨時傾家蕩產。
讓摧毀家園的黑人印度人穆斯林湧入中國，讓同胞們麵對令人惡心的麵孔和被傷害的恐懼。
出資10萬請印度學生占據中國重點實驗室職位的50%以上，回國後立刻開發武器摧毀中國。
國家嚴控稀土，還有人膽敢走私給敵人，有人利用在祖國學習的技術，幫助敵人提煉稀土。
中國的教育部編輯的教材，公然醜化同胞，既不講儒家文明思想和傳統，也不講遵紀手法。
把發行的貨幣變成主權債券高利貸，還要還本支付巨額利息。這混賬玩法已經把美國摧毀。
中國的司法大學培養的法官，律師，膽大包天，無所顧忌，吃拿卡要，膽敢公然違法判案。
在中國，各種犯罪猖獗，電信詐騙，偷搶拐賣兒童，學校霸淩致死，等等，各種獸性邪惡不斷地重複上演。西方文化獸性化的法官,判案鼓勵碰瓷敲詐,索賠獎勵壞人,巨額索賠足以讓被敲詐者傾家蕩產,負債累累，在中國，有人摔倒不敢扶，摧毀了儒家文明。
移植於禽獸西方的獸性司法條款，為邪惡者提供工具，利用巨額索賠，敲詐不扶起摔倒者的人。被禽獸西方的教育獸性化的人，把中國搞得好事不行，壞事盛行。
不是人類的本性太複雜而無法治理好國家，而是移植禽獸西方的法律體係混賬。被西方的教育獸性化的人建立的法律體係，講人性，玩人權，定立的法律條款，千方百計地保護壞人，失去法律應有的威懾功能。法官和律師，知法犯法，執法謀私，喪盡天良。
長期以來，大量被西方文化獸性化的人，已經占據中國的各個領域。邪惡地從教育根基上摧毀祖國，教育孩子結果，既沒有中式儒家思想，又沒有西式守法思想。
慶幸的是，如今的社會治理已經演化為立法鋪軌，社會沿之而行。然而，我國政府部門卻用隨意的臨時通知取代國法,形成可怕事實,攸關國計民生國家存亡的大事,被有關部門的負責人獨裁。這是導致各種犯罪屢禁不止，不斷地重複做惡，催毀祖國的主因。
我們必須認識人類的本性，人類是與生俱來的自私動物，自私求生的社會活動，是發展經濟支持社會存在的基本動力。沒有自私本能，嬰兒就不會主動吸吮乳頭，死於出生。沒有天生荷爾蒙驅動的男歡女愛，人類就不能繁衍。人類求生活動與集體利益衝突。
人是自私動物，公權私用在所難免。美國特斯拉馬斯克，特狼撲授權，組織黑客團隊，用授權的的非法手段，淺入政府機密賬戶，發現大量資金，被官員貪腐，事實清楚，不了了之。加拿大的現政府也拒絕審查被舉報的前政府貪腐，隻有習近平在鐵腕打貪。
因此。在我國，要用文化立國，要創建脫離西方文化的全新文明，不要指望人的良心發現，不要試圖教育國民人格高尚，而是立法，依法強製國民行為必須高尚。
追朔曆史的教訓，中國的孔子思想，之所以能夠打造亞洲儒家文明圈，建立亞洲價值觀，在於漢武帝的理性，尊董仲舒諫：罷黜百家，獨尊儒術，把儒家思想社會化，政府用鐵腕強製，人們言必儒家，行必儒家，科舉考試還是儒家。否則，儒家思想也會與西方的眾多好思想一樣，隻能被社會垃圾咀嚼，漲肚，折騰，發酵毒氣，打嗝，放屁，汙染設會。
鑒於此，在我國，要創建脫離西方文化的全新文明，必須學習漢武帝，鐵腕強製人們敬畏國法規矩，遵規做人事，行為必須是人格高尚，不損傷社會的集體利益。
還有，大家必須認識到，絕大多數老外彬彬有禮，不打人不罵人，不是天生如此，而是法律的約束。在法律的強製下，不得不規規矩矩。長期如此，習慣成自然。
最好例證是日本政府支持的暴力團山口組，用暴力手段強製日本人守規矩。日本人是被強迫形成的彬彬有禮，日本人說話，不住地哈腰，口中振振有詞，哈伊，哈伊。想想電影日本長官打下屬嘴巴，打一下，下屬立刻一個立正，哈伊。再打一下，還是如此。
此外，堂堂的美利堅共和國，也不得不默認黑社會整治監獄秩序。
2014年，美國布朗大學David Skarbek教授出書The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System：在美國的監獄，默認黑幫管理，看不見有人指揮，罪犯都規規矩矩，井井有條。一個個在社會凶煞般的罪犯，在監獄，按默認的規矩，老老實實，服服帖帖。按時就寢，靜悄悄，沒有人敢於喧嘩。
其實，大家都知道，黑幫組織的管理十分簡單，就是手法霸道，要麽讓反抗者失去行動能力，要麽讓反抗者失去思考器官。然而，在美國監獄之外，由玩人權的美國政府管理的社會，有眾多攜槍警察，還不如監獄內的囚犯群體的生活有秩序。
在我國不能利用黑社會，但是，鑒於人的本性，尤其是頑劣少年，可以引進新加坡沿用英國殖民時期的鞭刑。給那些屢教不改的罪犯，留下鞭痕，時時提醒，終身不敢造次。如果政府不能有效製止此類問題，人們有權質疑執政者的智力水平。
山口組公開存在的組織特性和社會價值
風蕭蕭 2015年10月12日 於加拿大
2014年8月24日，根據仲道新浪博客的係列文章日本泡沫經濟時期的普通百姓（轉帖在本文後麵）寫了博文 Over-heated real estate market is ruining Canadian economy from Japan mirroring Canada。
我欣賞仲道看問題的視角獨特，入木三分, 直達本質。今天，再次訪問仲道的新浪博客，發現了介紹日本山口組的文章。
從仲道的介紹，在日本，政府允許山口組這樣的組織存在，是因為該組織具有政府無法做到的積極作用 - 用不講理的方法來治理那些不遵守社會秩序的人。
同胞欣賞老外個個彬彬有禮，不打人，不罵人，老外並不是天生如此，而是法律約束出來的。在法律的強製之下，不得不規規矩矩。長期如此，習慣成自然。
對於那些不講理，或者講歪理, 不遵守社會公德的人，法律也無法約束。而日本政府支持的黑社會組織，暴力團山口組卻能手到害除。
日本人更是彬彬有禮，不斷地點頭.除了法律約束的貢獻，更有山口組的強力威懾的功勞。
有同胞遊日本，感慨日本社會良好的秩序，包裹放路邊，也不會丟失。其實，這並不完全是日本人素質高，而是日本的地下警察 - 山口組的功勞。如果，做壞事落到山口組手裏，暴打一頓難免。而政府豢養的堂堂正正的警察就不敢這樣做。
麵對山口組，不服也得服，不服不行，不敢不服。所以，日本人習慣了點頭哈腰，嘴裏還不斷地 哈伊，哈伊。
西方人抱怨，與日本談判時，日本人不停地點頭哈腰，嘴裏還不斷地哈伊，哈伊，不知道日本是同意還是反對。
謝謝山口組，把日本人的品格培養到極致。 更要謝謝仲道，讓我們理性看待山口組。
前幾天，在加拿大的超市兒買多西，有個白人老太太把精美的小包放在購物車上，我說，當心包被偷。她笑了，說: "在滑鐵盧還是比較安全的。在德國可不行，有一次，我的錢包放在內衣兜裏，還是被偷走了。"
2011年8月29日的文章德國小偷不老少報道，德國社會發達富裕，法製嚴謹規範，公民素質可圈可點，可是，說德國零售業的利潤，有將近30％的損失緣於失竊。
這是為什麽呢？因為，德國和法國沒有類似於日本山口組那樣的地下警察。
很明顯，歐洲需要一個日本式的山口組。 --- 風蕭蕭 2015年10月12日 於加拿大
1. 山口組公開存在的組織特性
仲道/文 2015-09-11 00:28:35
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50dccd000102x8wb.html
和一個叫中村的人在同一個公司一起共事了近一年。他的體能、智能都不怎麽樣，但膽子非常大，從小就特別崇拜黑幫組織，從20歲成年就努力靠近黑幫，直到30歲才正式加入組織。因為犯錯得到自斷左手小指最上一節的懲罰，但最終還是因錯誤嚴重被踢出組織。為黑幫工作了4年。
被踢出黑幫後，收入從每月50萬日元降到25萬日元，老婆無法忍受這種沒錢的日子，和他離了婚。
在和中村聊天時對日本山口組這類黑社會組織有了點了解。
山口組在組織形式上屬於【任意團體】，類似於我們的同學會、同鄉會、戰友聯誼會等，隨意性很強，沒有法人資格。有所不同的是，日本的【任意團體】盡管沒有法人資格，但可以收取會員的會費，也可以從事經營性活動，從事經營性活動的團體，由團體領導人所在地的稅務機關向團體領導人征收營業稅。
山口組為什麽被稱為黑社會組織？按照日本的法律規定，無論是公司、協會、宗教團體、政黨等各類法人和非法人組織，隻要被日本警察署認定該組織有包庇、縱容犯罪的行為，該組織就會被定性為【指定暴力團】組織，該組織如果有法人資格，其法人資格也將隨之被吊銷，成為【任意團體】。現在全日本被定性為【指定暴力團】的組織一共21家。【指定暴力團】的組織成員，如果被警察署定性為【暴力團員】，此人的電話、銀行賬戶等將在警察的監控之下。目前，全日本被定性為【暴力團員】的人員近5萬人。
山口組被指定為暴力團組織，但其成員並不都是暴力團員，企業總裁、宗教法人代表、政治團體的領導人這類有著很高社會地位的人也有可能就是山口組的成員，而且是公開的，並且定期要向山口組繳納會費。
山口組這類黑社會組織在日本不僅可以公開存在，而且還有著很大的社會影響力。在神戶山口組公開存在的組織特性縣（省），屬於山口組成員控製的經營性組織機構，其稅收占全縣（省）地方稅總稅收的70%；由此一斑，也可以看出日本黑社會組織在日本社會中的地位如何了。
2. 山口組在日本社會中的存在價值
仲道/文 2015-09-15 20:34:04
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50dccd000102x98g.html
山口組為什麽可以在日本公開存在，而且還有著很大的社會影響力？舉幾個簡單的例子就可以理解了。
例如某條街道亂停車現象非常嚴重，阻礙交通、民怨很大。日本沒有專職交警，有限的警力不可能天天在這裏維持交通秩序，怎麽辦？山口組會得到政府的支持獲得城市規劃批準，在附件建停車場，山口組有辦法讓這些車都開到停車場去，交通通暢了，山口組也賺了錢；
再例如，某個公園到處是狗糞，當地居民一直找政府但得不到解決，如果誰能解決這個問題，大家就選誰當這個區的區長，想當區長的人就會找到山口組，並許諾他當區長後，把這個公園委托給山口組管理，由政府支付管理費。山口組就會成立一家從合法手續上看與山口組毫無關係的公司接手管理公園。來公園遛狗的人就要小心了，再不清理自己愛犬的狗糞那就等同於宣布愛犬死刑了。山口組讓公園幹淨了，給居民帶來了快樂。
再例如風俗店的經營，如果不是山口組經營，警察能天天去到店裏抓那些想占便宜又沒錢的街頭混混和醉漢嗎。
再例如，日本各個城市的垃圾清理和資源回收是打包後委托給私營企業負責的，政府給企業一部分資金補貼，其餘的由企業從回收的資源中獲取收益。這類企業基本都是黑社會組織負責經營。垃圾清理的車輛天天在市區裏轉，再加日本的街道又窄小，牆角、屋簷、車輛被刮碰的事會經常發生，如果遇到“老賴”怎麽辦？遇到那些不按時、不按規定扔垃圾的人怎麽辦？老實人解決不了這些“老賴”問題，所以隻能是黑社會負責經營。
無論是黑社會還是白社會，既然都稱其為社會，那一定有人和人之間的關係秩序存在，隻是保證這種秩序的規則是否可以公開而已。是不是可以公開的秩序規則就是好規則，不可公開的就是壞規則呢，那絕對不能這麽說。比如有些國家抓住小偷可以公開剁手，而山口組抓住小偷是不公開打一頓。盡管目的都是讓小偷不能再犯，你能說山口組不可公開的規則不好嗎。
日本黑社會在二戰後得以迅速壯大，有一個客觀存在的曆史原因，日本二戰戰敗後處於無政府狀態時，黑社會組織在當時起到了維持社會秩序的作用，直到現在，在日本社會中，黑社會組織仍然是維持社會秩序的一個重要組成部分。
當然，山口組的惡行也是有目共睹的事實，這就如同一個人，功過是3:7開，還是2:8開，永遠沒有一個統一的答案。
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Over-heated real estate market is ruining Canadian economy from Japan mirroring Canada - 2
2014-08-25 22:44:42| 分類： Frank'sWritings
Frank Aug. 24, 2014, in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
The experience of Japan's Bubble Economy 1980s provides significant lessons:
The greed of human inborn nature will drive some people as profit-chasing speculators in addicting for unearned opportunistic.
The unearned speculation can distort the philosophy of people with addicting luxury life but despising for social wealth creation.
The improper economic policies will provide a favorable environment for those speculators to push the real economy into rot.
The soaring rise in the cost of living pushed by real estate speculators is squeezing the real economy out of Vancouver.
The economic plight in Vancouver shows that Canada is facing a vital historical moment for economic strategy adjusting. --- Frank Aug. 24, 2014 in Waterloo, On. Ca.
The lessons of Japan's Bubble Economy in 1980s
Continued from Over-heated real estate is ruining Canadian economy from Japan mirroring Canada - 1
At first, please look at Kondo Daisuke, A Rational Man of Japan, that is my special writing for this article to show my citing some information that touches the weakness or dark side of the people and the enterprises of Japan here is no any bad intention, but, with the hope of that can help to improve the wrongful ideology and the production efficiency for material wealth creation in Japan and world widely.
3.1.. The Formation of Japan's Bubble Economy in 1980s
In the late 1970s, Japan's manufacturing technology on automotive and appliance developed a strong ability to compete with that of the U.S. and Europe, some manufacturers were among the world leader, and the products export to overseas in large quantities. It promotes the rapid rise of Japan’s economy.
After the economic reform and open up of China, the cars and appliances of Japan began to export to China in large quantities.
The Japanese, who have visited China, said with that: if China reaches the current technical level of Japan, it needs at least 30 years, China has 1.2 billion people, we can export stuff to China for many years. Therefore, many Japanese people believed that, in their lifetime, the economy of Japan will always be thriving.
At that time, despite the economic prosperity, the living conditions of Japanese people have not improved in the same step.
Since that prior to 1985, Japan's house is not fully commercialized. There more than 80% of ordinary working families are living in public houses, such as, the county barracks, the city barracks, and so on. In this period, the Japan Housing Corporation (JHC) was the largest residential provider, which was Gov.-funded in 1955.
The Residential of JHC, the photo of the original article
Faced with the economic prosperity, in 1981, The Japanese government renamed the Japan Housing Corporation (JHC) as the Urban Renaissance Agency (UR), the core work transited into the construction and improvement of urban living and infrastructure from the directly providing housing, with the hope to take the chance of economic prosperity to commercialize the residential, thereby, to improve the living conditions while meeting the needs of residential personalization, as well as, to promote the sustainable development of the economy.
In 1985, with the "Plaza Accord" forcing appreciation of the yen, the money value of Japanese people suddenly increased at least 20%, which prompting the government to start accelerating comprehensive implementation of the residential commercialization. The Commercial Banks, in large quantities, grant loans for residents purchase with slashing down loan rates. Thus, the housing prices of Japan began a rapid climb. 
The changes in interest rates on bank loans
Thus, the bubble of Real Estate was quickly blowing up. The golden age of Japanese economy was emerging.
However, when the economic booming with house prices and stock prices both soaring up, and the people of Japan were selflessly speculating in the real estate and indulging in the luxury life of economic prosperity, in March 27, 1990, the Bank of Japan introduced the "Notice of Controlling the Total Financing Amount of Real Estate”, then, the house prices, stock prices were both falling down.
Further more, in the August 1990; the Bank of Japan increased short-term lending rate to 6%. But, those were not enough; the worse was still coming, in 1992, Ministry of Finance has introduced land tax to further devastate the real estate market. For the High-end retailing businesses, because, the shop is located in the city's most prosperous area, every year, the 0.3% land tax even valued 20% of commodity profits. The land tax resulted in a strong inhibition on the prices of the real estate.
Thus, the bubble of Real Estate was quickly deflating down in Japan. The golden age of Japanese was disappearing. Back to 123
3.2.. Why did the Japanese Gov. pierced the economic bubble
Why Japanese Government issued the policy of limiting the Financing Amount of Real Estate? Even. faced that the property market and the stock market has both started to crash down, in 1992, the Ministry of Finance still introduced the land tax, to further crash down the market of real estate?
Many people deemed that, it was that a series of policies of the Government of Japan after 1990 have pushed the Japanese economy into "quagmire".
In fact, the cause of the economic recession was not that of the policies issued after 1990, but, the policies for fully opening the real estate market in 1985 with the hope of maintaining the economy in high-speed development with the development of the real estate.
As earlier as the period of real estate market hot developing 1985 – 1989, Japanese government has realized the severity of the mistake of wrongly opening real estate market. Those policies after 1990 were for the emergent corrections rationally.
In 1985, the <Plaza Accord> further deepened the long worry of Janpanese people for the depreciation of the yen; they found that the real estate was the best way to hedge against inflation, with the fueling of the incentive policies of the government, the large sums of money invested in the real estate market.
In the eyes of the vast majority of Japanese people; the land has become the most worthy assets for maintaining the value of their hard-earnings. Since then, the nature of the real estate began to change, from the need of living to be developed as the tools of the speculators for profit.
Faced with such a large market demand, major Japanese banks launched fierce competing on loans for land. Typically, banks’ mortgage financing for land was about 70% of the evaluated value of the land, but, the loan of the Hokkaido Takushoku Bank even reached 120% of the land value.
In the eyes of Japanese people, the real estate was gold mine to dig madnessly.
With the rapid rise of the prices of the real estate, throughout of the Japan, the funds of investing in the real estate were more and more, the developing projects on real estate were more and more, and bigger and bigger.
In 1988, many years’ high profit of the real estate industry even attracted the leaders of the Japanese real economy also to invest in the real estate, such as, the Toyota, Fuji Heavy Industries, Hitachi motors, etc..
On the other hand, because of over-heated real estate speculation pushing high the price of the land, the second Tomei Expressway that was under construction difficult to continue, the operating conditions of the Japan Highway Public Corporation was worsening. Also, there various local public investment and construction were encountered difficulties, also.
The wild development of the real estate has seriously impacted on the normal development of the economy. Thus, the debating about how to develop of Japan was more and more intensive. In general review, these arguments were primarily around three aspects:
1. Whether the promotion of the development of real estate industry was in line with the basic national policy?
2. Whether the development of real estate industry was able to maintain the prosperity of the Japanese economy?
3. If the answer to both questions were "NO", then, what kind of economic model was suitable for Japan?
From the appearance, the collapse of Japan's bubble economy was caused by the series of suppression policies of the government of Japan; however, the essence of those policies was the clear answer of the government for the hot debating:
1. The promotion of the development of real estate industry did not comply with the basic national policy.
2. The development of the real estate industry could not sustain the prosperity of the Japanese economy?.
After World War II, Japan coined two basic national policies that were the basic farmland system and the revitalizing strategy by the development of the industry and technology.
Socalled the basic farmland system was that Japan must maintain the amount of Japan's basic farmland to meet Japan's need for food self-sufficient. The over-heated development of the real estate was direct threatened to the amount of the basic farmland tenure.
The revitalizing strategy by the development of the industry and technology was that, after World War II, faced scorched motherland, the Japanese government made a long argument on what develop-direction should be taken?. Once, considered to emulate the Netherlands as the trade hub between Asia, Europe and America, but, after the comparison between Japan and the Netherlands, either the number of the population and the external environment was far difference, so, the idea of the trade center was completely negated finally, and then, decided to take the development of the industry and technology as the developing policy.
Japan is a country that resources heavily depend on the imports. For obtaining needed resources, Japan must exchange by the goods that other country needed.
If, there more and more funds were invested in the real estate, the entire industrial structure and employment structure would tilt to the real estate industry, then, the manufacturing industries for earnings from export would decline continuously, and thus the needed resources that exchanged from other countries would be less and less. Back to 123
More worse was that, in the 10 years, 20 years later, with the rise of the developing countries, Japan, a country with no advantage of the price in products, even, the advantage in technology would be lost, too. Since there no goods can be used for exchanging resources with other countries. So, essentially, the competition of Japanese people on real estate was just as that of the poor villagers who were fighting for the adobe thatched cottages with no electricity, no heating, no gas and no oil, which was mindlessly struggling toward more poor.
Although, the businesses and the people are both inseparable from the land, however, how much the value of the land should account for the corporate profits? And how much should account for the personal income? In this world, for such question, there was no clear standard.
For the Japan, however, due to lack of natural resources, must use high-tech products to exchange, which was a firm commone consensus in Japanese society.
It was obvious that drove economy by developing real estate, was already departed from the unchangeable policy of revitalizing strategy by the development of the industrial and technology.
Luckily, the housing price of Japan has been led by Government since the establishment of Japan Housing Corporation (JHC) in 1955 until 1985. So, there were enough social bases for Japanese government piercing the economic bubble.
3.3.. The madness of the ordinary people during the bubble economy
In 1996, when Zhang Dao arrived in Japan first day of the first time, he associated with Mr. Sudo, a 48 years old Japanese man who was an administrator of a company that engaged in the management of commercial facilities with a monthly wage of more than 400 thousands yen. Zhong Dao was surprised with that, Sudo’s salary was not low, but also was a single, why did live in such a apartment of just over 30 thousands yen rent monthly, a bed room of 12 square meters, a kitchen of 4 square meters and a bathroom 3 square meters, with 5 people sharing a bathroom?.
Later, Zhong Dao learnt the reason, in the bubble economy booming period of 1988, Mr. Sudo bought a two-story villa with 60 million yen. Now, this villa price has dropped to 30 million yen. He rented the villa out and lived in this simple place, in order to save money, with the rental of the villa together to repay the bank's loan. 
The photo of the original article
Mr. Sudo has carefully counted that was only in this way, he would pay off the loan when his 65 years old, and then, he will mortgage the villa to get enough money for a decent sunset of his life. However, his wife was not willing to live in such a simple apartment and divorced to live with other man.
1997, Zhong Dao entered a graduate school and associated with doctoral Dong who was also from China and engaged in metal materials research. One day Dr. Dong drove him to a very desolate place to pick up persimmons.
Dr. Dong told him: here was his Mentor’s land and was bought in the bubble economy period, according to the development plan at that time, here should be in the commuter circle range of the Tokyo. Unfortunately, please look it now, still was so desolate, and maybe that was only my Mentor – a Professor engaging in the study of metal with a stubborn metal brain still believing that Tokyo circle will expand to here.
Dr. Dong said continuously: when making scientific experiments in the laboratory, his Professor was often soliloquizing about this land. This land seemed an annoying piece of his mind.
The professor bought this land in 1989 with 50 thousands yen/㎡, a total of 150 million yen. His professor once said, now, if someone can bid 100 million, he would sell it out. In 1993, a people bid 25 thousands yen/㎡, his Professor refused, now, even 20 thousands yen/㎡ can not find a buyer. For these persimmon trees, his Professor had no time to take care of, they picked persimmons up was to help his professor in fact.
In China, there is gratitude tradition that student will respect own Mentor as the brother of own father to keep lifelong friendship. So Dr. Dong was sharing the happiness and the sadness of his Japanese Mentor.
Zhong Dao looked around the land once again, besides a dozens of persimmon trees; all was weeds, his exciting mood during driving to here be cooled down. 
The photo of the original article
In 2002, when investigating to choose a good place for a retail shop, Zhong Dao has a chance passed by here and was surprised by the old look as that of in 5 years ago. On the way, he specially went to a public library to have a check, the land was really planed as urbanization zone, but, now, it is still not ready to be construction site, due to it needs the investment of the government to be ready on water supply, drainage, liquefied petroleum gas, the roads that was over 5.2 meters width and other infrastructure that was essential for daily living.
The Professor bought this land here, probably based on the speed of the urban development during the period of bubble economy, the government will develop here as construction land within a few years. Then, as professor dreamed, land prices raised at least 100 thousands yen per square meter, and then, if it turned into the commercial use, 300 thousands yen per square meter was also possible. Unfortunately, the bet of the professor on making a large pile of money failed besides the success in gaining endless upsetting with the loss of money.
In 1999, after graduating from Tokyo University of Technology, Zhong Dao worked for a local company. In there he associated with 50 years old Kawase, a Japanese man who was a general engineer.
After graduating from the Tokyo Institute of Technology, Mr. Kawase came to work in the company, and became the company's core technical staff under age of 40. He has been work in the corporate headquarter in Shinagawa Tokyo and made great contribution for the development of the company, his basic wage reached nearly one million yen.
However, in 1985, the early stage of the formation of the bubble economy, Kawase resign founded a residential production plant. On the start, the development was very successful. In 1988, Kawase was not only loans to expand the production scale, while also bought a first-class luxury apartment in Tokyo with nearly 200 million yen.
Unexpectedly, in 1990, the economic situation worsened, the orders of the plant were almost zero. Kawase pledged the apartment to the bank with 100 million yen with hoping the plant survival. However, the plant eventually went bankrupt in 1997. The executive of his former work-company considered with Kawase’s capability and many years of personal friendship to let him back to the company, but he could not go back to headquarter with the wage of only 400 thousands Yen.
3.4.. High-quality of Japanese people before Bubble Economy
Now, I think of a story in Mandarin long time ago, the famous American marketing authority Philip Kotler who once said that: For Japan, what is the panacea to heal its wounds of the war, to stand up on the war-ruins, and to become the economic powerhouse? For achieving economic advantage, Japanese waged the war, but, failed. From the pain, they learnt that, the use of economic means can achieve more brilliant achievements than that of the use of the military. This means is the marketing.
The economic miracle shows the high-quality of Japanese people. Following is a story.
In morning August 19, 2013, I had a chat with the father of my new neighbor. He said that his brother once was a top executive of a Canadian Steel Manufacturer and had twice visited to Japan for learning the experience of the advanced corporate management in 40 years ago. His brother appreciates the good quality of Japanese very much with a comparison between Japanese and Canadian in case of production accident.
When facing production equipment fails, any Japanese operator would immediately stop the production, and then, all of the people gathered together to make diagnosis and treatment, after troubleshooting, everyone immediately went back own position to resume the production. But, the Canadian was just blindly standing, there no one was attempting for troubleshooting.
Following are some memories about the industrious noble quality of Japanese people. I could not recall the source of them already, but the facts are true.
When 1973 oil crisis, the plant of the Sony Corporation was shutdown and the workers were staying home waiting for notification of work. However, the workers went back to plant to do some thing available volunteerly with the hope that company could survive.
Mr. Kazuo Inamori, the founder of Kyocera Corporation of Japan. In the newly established period of the company, an customer ordered special shape of water pipes, because there was no prior experience in the production of such pipes. In the process of heating and forming to required shape, the water pipes were burst. Then, Kazuo Inamori was holding the pipe when sleeping at night and slowly turning the pipe, so that pipes was heated evenly, and made it into required shape finally.
Now, we have convinced that it was that industrious noble nature of Japanese people created Japan's postwar economic miracle.
Now, let’s look at that new developed incredible poor quality of Japanese people, which was nourished from the profiteering zealortry during bubble economy.
3.5.. The horrors after the Economic Bubble burst
In the article <Japan’s Bubble Economy of the 1980s> June 4, 2012, the economic analyst and Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo wrote with that:
"By 2004, residential real estate in Tokyo was only worth of 10% of its late 1980s peak, while the most expensive land in Tokyo’s Ginza business district had fallen back to just 1% of its 1989 level in the same year (Barsky, 2009)."
"Similarly, the Nikkei stock index is now trading around 10,000, just little over a quarter of its all-time high."
"It has been over two decades since the popping of Japan’s economic bubble and the country is still actively battling with deflationary forces that are so powerful that near-zero interest rates, repeated bouts of quantitative easing (some call it “money printing”) and constant Yen-weakening currency interventions have barely made a dent." Back to 123
Jan 6, 2009, on the Japan Times, the report <Lessons from when the bubble burst> said with that: after the crash in late 1990, economic growth stalled various government-sponsored fiscal and economic stimulus measures, including trillions of yen in failed public works projects, did nothing to revive the economy. This was started roughly in 1991, when the effects of the stock market crash became clear.
Mar 09, 2014, Japan's deficit hits record as economic growth slows.
Mar 31, 2014, Japan factory output contracts, dims growth outlook as tax hike looms.
Apr. 28, 2014, IMF says Shinzo Abe’s economic policy is losing momentum and warns growth could stall unless structural changes to the economy are made.
Above information reveals the terrible consequences of Japan's bubble economy, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe economics seems not work but with a side effect to press Japanese economy continuously toward deterioration.
3.5.1.. Bubble Economy degenerated the quality of Japanese
Why the all of the fiscal and economic stimulus measures has been used, but have gained nothing to revive the economy?
When talking about the main cause of Japan’s declining from the economic powerhouse? Most people would blame the Plaza Accord that forced appreciation of the Yen to cause Japanese products losing competitiveness and the Bubble Economy.
The reason, as my view, all of those stimulus measures are from the macro elements of the economy, with ignoring the most basic micro elements - the quality of the people, the work-ethic of the labor, the efficiency of the production and the capacity of the innovation.
The Bubble Economy has rewritten the code of the DNA of the quality of Japanese people, from enthusiastic in hard working into enamoring in greedy speculating, thus, further affected the social moral and national’s spiritual, thereby cause the decay of whole society of Japan.
The easy gaining excessive profit from speculative activities have fueled Japanese speculative mentality with unearned ideological. It entices people keen to make living by speculating instead of hard working and less concerning on the interest of own company. I think, such negative impact is more terrible, even fatal.
In essence, the national is the decisive factor for a nation’s economic development; a nation's economic decline is the decline of the quality of its national.
Whether it is a business or a country, if its member is full of concerning for the self interest, without or lack of concerning for the public interest, it will doom to be extinction.
So, I firmly believed that the impact of the Bubble Economy on the economy is just a curable social flu, but, the impact on the national’s spiritual is incurable social cancer.
The fact of the Japanese companies loses competitiveness and falling into declining are the vivid proof. The shortsightedness and lack of entrepreneurial spirit of the management team, the lack of work enthusiasm of the employees is the main reason, and also it caused Japan's economy can not recover as expected.
3.5.1.1.. A Shocking Story of Incredible Lazy
An engineer of China who works for a German company in taking charge of the branches in South Korea, China and Japan, after working a while in Japan, he was shocked by the lazy of Japanese employees, and completely lost the good impression for them.
Then he wrote an article post on the website and to be widely reproduced on the internet. I excerpt and translate some as follow. For facilitating narrative, here, I name the writer as Jim.
The Japanese employees are working overtime almost every day, but, only for getting overtime pay rather than for the need of production.
Jim arranged a simple task to a Japanese technician who dragged two days to finish. The same work, if, in China, a new graduated young man can finish just in half an hour.
In a break time, Jim complains the matter with German colleagues, one German said, this guy is a good one, since he did not drag for a month as that of others. Another German even suspected that Japanese employee was dozing when working.
Japanese employee did not like to take responsibility, when encountering some work trouble, usually; they will look for helping with endless complaining.
German company plans to open new production lines in Japan, so, sent Japanese staff to Germany for training. The same project in China, within a year, production lines was already operating at full capacity in three shifts for 24 hours a day. But in Japan, it took two years still in the state of machine commissioning.
The workers of China have mastered all the skills within the three months training in Germany. The German teacher said: you have learnt every thing on the training plan, you may go back to China now, and we have nothing for teaching any more.
Japanese spent six months in Germany, but, after went back to Japan; they could not work properly, and complaining that Germans did not teach them well. Germans angered with that: in Germany, we were teaching you hands by hands, and you also said that you have mastered every thing already. The Japanese fought back immediately: Sorry, we forgot, our memory is too bad to remember that.
Germans were angered and collectively applied for vacation to leave Japan as a protest. The German company had to allow them to China by the name of studying for appeasing their anger.
Jim went back China with the German colleagues together. When they held a cup of coffee to watch Workshop through the window glass of the upstairs office, the production was in an orderly busy, workers were loading and unloading on the production line, the transportation-cars were running to and fro between the production sites and the storages.
All of Germans was shocked and some even exclaimed with that: my God, here is simply a heaven. One of them said with that, they (Japanese) have been sleeping for 20 years, let them sleeping for another 20 years, then, Japan will decline as a developing country, and while, China will destine to be a developed country.
Now, in many Japanese companies, employees are mostly 40-50 years old, rarely under 30. Many young Japanese are staying in unemployed. Besides the cause of the economic recession, the other cause is Japan's "special" corporate culture, which emphasizing work-qualifications and work-records, so that young Japanese have lesser work chance. Some girls have to do "compensated dating" for making money. Some boys also have to make money by doing “duck” - male prostitute.
Following, let’s look at the reason for the decline of Japanese corporations following the eyes of Mr. Kondo Daisuke.
3.5.1.2.. Evading Responsibility ruins Sharp Corporation
Sharp Corporation founded in Sep. 1912, Headquartered in Osaka, Japan. It is a multinational corporation that designs and manufactures electronic products with around 55,580 employees worldwide as of June 2011, with ranking as the fifth-largest television manufacturer in the world, after Samsung, LG, Sony, and Panasonic.
But, in recent years, Sharp Corporation declines as same as that of many other Japanese companies.
Sep. 11, 2012, Daisuke Kondo who published a Mandarin article <Angry Gou Tai-ming> on Economic Observer Online of China, in which he criticized the “Japanese Disease” that harms Japanese companies. I excerpt and translate some as follow.
A hundred years glorious Sharp Corporation has suffered "Japanese disease." It is not only the Sharp, but the Sony, Panasonic, NEC, Sanyo, Olympus, and great many Japanese companies are the serious patients in "Japanese disease".
The nature of the "Japanese disease" is the manner of "evading responsibility" that evolved rigid organizational structure and Inward Oriented Conservative of the Japanese Companies. The direct result of the "Illness" is that illed-companies will increasingly debilitate and ultimately collapse.
For example, a Japanese company planed to develop a new product. The product development department produced a "plan book", with depicting the grand blueprint of best market potential.
However, when the "plan book" spreading in other departments of the company, this new product would face with dozens or even hundreds of blames, in the end, it did not get any support. The reason is simple: For the heads of departments, the most important thing is not how to bring new products to market, to improve the turnover, but, how to avoid the risk-taking of affecting own career in case of the sales of the new products is not good as expected.
Because of the whole company have infected the disease of "evading responsibility", a lot of great new product plans have been put into the limbo. Meanwhile, in the process of this "bad model" iterative, the staff for new products’ R & D has gradually lost enthusiasm and morale, thus, resulting in the number of the plan for new products’ dropped. Nevertheless, the whole company still does not repent for that, keeping on its own way.
In the March 2012, Sharp's financial accounts (The fiscal year starts in April in Japanese companies) exposed huge losses. It shows that the decline of Sharp continuously with accelerating and doomed to bankrupt within one year.
At this point, dying Sharp ushered in a Savior, after mutual consultation, the founder and chairman of Foxconn, Gou Tai-Ming is willing to pay for acquiring 9.9% stake in Sharp Corporation.
However, 5 months later, in the afternoon Aug. 30, 2012, in Sakai City factory of Sharp Corporation located in Osaka, came out an angry voice: "why do you Japanese take so long time to make a decision? Are you really going to rebuild the company? " Back to 123
Face the raps, Sharp president Takashi Okuda and his management team heads down and keeps in silence as that of the pupils being reprimanded by their teacher. "Finally, I am again, to accept our request or not, you are better hurry to consider clear!"
After that, Guo immediately takes a private plane to leave Japan. For his sudden departure, more than 100 media reporters look at each others; and do not know what to do.
Once cooperation with a Japanese business that suffers "Japanese disease", I believe, regardless, which leaders of China's company will be angry as same as that of Gou Tai-Ming.
Assuming, a Chinese company raised an advantageous cooperation projects for both sides to a Japanese company, the local subsidiary of the Japanese company will immediately report to the International Department of the Japanese parent company. At this time, the International Department will require the local subsidiary to present a "plan book" as long as hundreds of pages. Just for completing this "plan book" will be going to spend a few months of time.
Then, after the negotiations with various departments in the head office, which cost more than six months usually, luckily, the "plan book" may finally appear on the meeting of the Board of directors once a month in the head office. However, most probably it will suffer the fate of being sentenced to death, because of all the directors are not concerns the plan book from its feasible or not, but, from the "how to use the plan, for their personal interest, rather than the interest of the company.
If, some directors believe that the implementation of the plan was no benefit for them selves, or own competitors in the company can get more benefits, they would oppose without hesitation and then put forward some reason to postpone the decision and ultimately to make the plan was dismissed or forced to ‘another day another meeting’, without the rational sense of caring about the interest of gaining or losing for the company."
It is not only Gou Tai-Ming, but, there no any boss will patiently wait for so long. When asking Japanese side a result, the answer is "still under studying." So, facing the brink of bankruptcy, the Sharp is still in the long "studying", the angry of Gou Tai-Ming is natural and reasonable.
3.5.1.3.. The ridiculous management ruins Sony Corporation
Feb. 6, 2014, Mr. Daisuke Kondo published another Mandarin article <The sundown of Sony: Doraemon or Crayon> on a website of China, in which he criticized the ridiculous management that has been ruining Sony Corporation.
I excerpt and translate some as follow. When I translating this article, I was shocked and produced a feeling of that Sony's management is simply absurd. It warns us to review that whether have similar behavior in Canadian companies?
Now, let us to see the reason of the decline of the Sony Corporation with the narrative of Mr. Daisuke Kondo.
Feb. 6, 2014, Kazuo Hirai, the president of Sony Corporation declared: "Due to 110 billion yen huge deficit in 2013, the company will lay off 5,000 people in the coming year, while fully stop the production and the R & D of Sony VAIO-PC.
I remember that of my college days, only the best students in science majors can enter Sony. When going out of Japan, regardless of which country, we were able to see "SONY" huge billboard and young people using "walkman". At that time, Sony is our Japanese pride. However, now?
For this problem, one of my college classmates, now a Sony employee replied with that:
"In the company, there one by one meetings are from morning to night, after the meetings, everyone must deal with at least 100 internal mails from the company. So, Sony is not an electronics manufacturer, but a downright bureaucracy! Only those people, who are the 'Mr. Nice Guy' without any faults, could be promoted. Such a Sony could not develop new products that can shine the world any more?”
"Our company has a specialized team in charge of new product development against the rival of Apple of the United States. There was I admired executive who is in charge of the team. One day, his immediate leader of a director of Board even ordered him to stop the investment of 'no value' (ie, to give up the R & D) as soon as possible to vanquish to Apple. The executive retorted: Do you have self-esteem as a member of Sony? The Director even contemptuously asked: ‘your self-esteem can help company making money, right? Heard of the answer of a director of Board, the executive immediately decided to resign."
In recent years, the elite who left Sony were not only the executive alone. In 2006, the former managing director who was responsible for "AIBO" R & D of futuristic robots was demobilized; the reason was that there members of board were questioning that ‘How much economic benefit that the robot R & D can bring to Sony? In 2007, former chairman and CEO of the Sony Computer Entertainment Inc., Mr. Ken Kutarag who known as the "Father of the PS (PlayStation)" was also retired after the expiry of his Job tenure.
In the booming period of before, Sony company once gathered a large number of "Doraemon" talents - they can come up with all kinds of whimsy from their "Mind Treasure Bag", and then to materialize them into a variety of future products. But now, unfortunately, the Sony is filled with the people who work with lips only as that of the "Crayon"
Thanks Mr. Daisuke Kondo for his careful observation and artful description.
From above lessons, I firmly believed that, no doubt, such Japanese diseases of the employee lazy, the "evading responsibility", and more, is an objective results of the Japanese subjective selfish ideological, which was developed from the Holy Baptism by Japan’s Bubble Economy 1980s.
Because of that, if, before the Japan’s Bubble Economy, the Japanese people and the companies had infected these kind diseases, the Japan would never be developed as the economic powerhouse.
The aftermath of the bubble economy is still hurting all aspects of Japanese society, from the social ideological to the personal spiritual, from the macro national economy to the micro family life, from the world class companies to the ordinary employees, and more.
The sad facts of Japan made me firmly believed: it is that national’s quality decides the fate of the nation. And it is that social moral, social ideological impacts the quality of the national in a great extent.
Japan, one misstep in opening real estate market, can not get rid of the nightmare of the bubble economy.
Vancouver, Canada must remain sober on dealing with real estate market.
In view of the terrible lessons of Japan, whether we should follow the suggestion of Peter Ladner to directly introduce restrictions for foreign property buyers to avoid what happened in Japan by cooling down Vancouver’s over-heated real estate?
Of course, the restriction as Peter Ladner suggested is necessary. However, in consideration of the terrible lessons of Japan, we should design a proper solution to prevent the heavy side effect of the restriction. This is significant, but a thorny issue.
If we throw ourselves into effort, any problem will have a suitable solution. I will discuss it in other article.
日本泡沫經濟時期的普通百姓
本文轉載自「仲道的BLOG」，原文作者為「仲道」
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50dccd000100g72w.html
本文來自於大陸的博客「仲道」的部落格
我個人認為寫得非常好
描述日本在1990年代泡沫經濟時期的時候整個時空背景環境和人民對於泡沫經濟時期中的整體大環境體驗描寫得非常深刻
我覺得非常適合一般的投資人去閱讀並瞭解當初日本泡沫經濟的背景
以及近十年來中國崛起的時候為什麼這麼害怕複製當時候的日本泡沫經濟？
老美也為什麼要想方設法的逼人民幣強力升值但中國政府死守底線？
又為什麼這幾年全世界的房地產瘋狂飆升？
這篇文章中有很多養分
特地轉錄到部落格中讓大家閱讀
也可以讓大家去瞭解一下什麼是房地產和經濟泡沫
以及現行台灣的房地產發展是不是也有相似的軌跡可供依循參考
如欲再深究日本泡沫經濟背景的投資人
建議可以再到GOOGLE或是維基百科搜尋日本泡沫經濟的起因和當初重要日本與美國在1985年簽訂重要的「廣場協議」
其後對日本經濟造成重大衝擊的歷史背景
日本泡沫經濟時期的普通百姓
96年初，到日本的第一天，住在一棟樓裡的鄰居須藤用茶盤端著沏好的抹茶來到我的房間，這可能是他獨有的“初次見麵、彼此認識一下”的表達方式。語言溝通上的障礙也隻能是簡單的十幾分鐘“寒暄”，須藤把他房間裡的電話給了我，讓我告訴家裏人可以通過他的電話和我聯繫。
在我沒有裝電話的近兩個月的時間裡，去須藤那裡接過幾次電話，每次接完電話我都帶點東西過去感謝一下。這樣一來，每個星期抽1、2個小時坐下來聊聊天就成了一種習慣。
須藤48歲，是一家從事商業設施管理的管理員，每月工資40多萬日元。我當時很奇怪，他的工資不算低，又是獨身，為什麼還會住在這樣一棟月租金隻有3萬多日元、一居(12㎡)一廚(4㎡)一衛(3㎡ )、5人合用一個浴室的樓房裡呢？(如下圖)
圖１
須藤對我這種疑問表示非常理解，他告訴我說，在日本經濟泡沫時期的88年，他花6000萬日元購買了一套二層別墅。現在這套別墅的價格已經 跌到了3000萬日元。他把別墅已經出租出去了。他住現在這樣的房子是為了省下錢來和別墅的租金合在一起還銀行的貸款。等他65歲的時候就可以還清貸款， 然後再把房子抵押出去得到養老送終的錢。不過，他的妻子並不願意和他一起住這樣的房子，離婚了。
97年，進入大學院後認識了搞金屬材料研究的博士生小董(中國人)，有一天他開車帶我到一個很荒涼的地方去摘柿子。我問他這裡的柿子為什麼可以 隨便摘，他說，這是他導師在泡沫經濟時期買的地，按那個時期的發展規劃，這裡應該可以劃入東京通勤圈的範圍了，很遺憾，你看看現在，還是這麼荒涼，也隻有 這搞金屬研究的教授腦袋才這麼“硬”，才會相信東京圈會擴大到這裡。
小董又說：在研究室做實驗的時候，教授沒事兒總叨叨這塊地，看來這塊地讓他挺煩心。教授在89年以5萬日元/㎡買了這塊地，一共是1.5億日 元。教授說如果現在有人出1個億，他就賣。93年有人出價2.5萬日元/㎡，教授捨不得，現在，2萬都找不到買主了。種了這些柿子樹還沒時間照料，我們到 這摘柿子吃就是幫他忙了。
我注意看了看這塊地，除了幾十棵柿子樹，其它都是荒草。當時來的高興勁兒晾了一大半。
後來在02年做店鋪選址調查時又路過這裡，感覺還是以前的老樣子。我順路到當地的公共圖書館查了一下，這塊地屬於市街化調整區域，這種區域內的 土地並不完全屬於建設用地，如果要化為建設用地，當地的政府部門必須投資進行給排水、液化氣、5.2米以上寬度的道路等基礎設施建設。教授買這裡的土地， 大概是基於泡沫經濟時期的城市發展速度，要不了幾年，政府部門就會投資把這裡化為建設用地了。如果真如教授所料，地價至少要漲到10萬1平米，再如果化成 了建設用地中的商業用地，30萬/㎡也完全可能。很可惜，教授這個“賭注”沒押對。
99年，在就職的公司裡認識了川瀨，他和我都愛好登山，我加入了他們的登山俱樂部，一般是星期六的早晨6點在山下集合，10點多登山結束後到溫泉洗洗澡回家。
有一次三連休，俱樂部組織去日光登山，日光是日本著名的旅遊觀光地，不少成員都帶了自己的家人或朋友。
我們從山上下來後，沒有去登山的人已經在溫泉旅館等候了，這其中有川瀨的妻子，川瀨把我介紹給她，並邀請我和他們一起吃晚飯。自從見了川瀨的妻子，我再看川瀨的時候，總感覺他是一個很神秘的人物。
川瀨已經50歲，但隻是公司裡一個非常普通的工程師，可他的妻子不僅長得漂亮而且言談舉止完全是一個名門形象。在日光，川瀨的妻子穿的是和服， 日本女人穿和服時的走路姿勢、坐姿、目光等等都是有講究的，沒有受過專門訓練的人裝不出來。接受這種訓練的一般是“大家”的女孩子、或者是準備成為“大家 媳婦”的女子家政大學的學生。在大學院我遇到過來自女子家政大學的研究生，相比之下，川瀨的妻子可以做這些“大家媳婦”的老師。
和川瀨一起登山的次數越多，越是想知道他到底是個什麼人，可又不便直接問，擔心問不好還有可能把關係搞僵了。
過了一段時間，有機會和關口一起去施工現場，他來這個公司已經9年了，我和他的私人關係不錯，路上就我們兩個人，這是個機會，我說：“在日光見 到了川瀨的妻子，她穿和服的樣子和我平時看到的其她人真不一樣，魅力十足，一定是“大家”出身吧”，關口說：“不知道，不過，川瀨以前可是社長，妻子一定 錯不了”，我又問川瀨為什麼成了一個普通職員時，看關口不太樂意回答，我也就不好再問。
時間長了，從人們的隻言片語中，對川瀨有了一個基本的了解。川瀨從東京理工大畢業後就來到我就職的這個公司，不到40歲就成了公司的核心技術人 員，一直在東京品川、公司總部工作。對公司發展貢獻很大，基本工資近百萬日元。85年，也就是泡沫經濟形成初期，川瀨辭職創辦了一家住宅製作工廠。一起步 就發展很順利，到88年，川瀨不僅貸款擴大了生產規模，同時在東京的一等地還購買了一套近2億日元的高檔公寓。沒想到，90年後，形勢急轉直下，工廠的訂 單幾乎為零。川瀨1億2千萬把東京的公寓抵押給了銀行，希望度過難關、保住工廠。可最終還是在97年破產了。這個公司的高層念川瀨的能力和多年的交情又讓 他又回到公司，不過總部是回不去了，工資聽說隻有40萬。
因為在自己的身邊，經常聽到泡沫經濟時期有關購地、購房的事兒，就開始琢磨：日本的一個普通百姓隨便說句話都要從腦子裡過一下，搞不懂的事情不 會做，那麼，日本的地價、房價為什麼會上漲？是什麼原因讓他們堅信地價、房價還會漲？他們的工資並不高，房價已經超出了他們的正常支付能力，為什麼還會降 低其它方麵的生活水平來買地、買房呢？
日本的房價為什麼會上漲？不少人認為是緣於1985年9月的“廣場協議”。就這麼一個有關貨幣匯率的協議就能導致日本人瘋狂貸款購房？如果百姓 無錢銀行憑什麼貸款給你？日本百姓又憑什麼堅信地價、房價還會漲？所以說，“廣場協議”充其量隻能說是“導火索”，那麼“炸彈”是如何形成的呢？也就是說 日本百姓的購房款來自何方？對於這些疑問，在2000年公司忘年會上，我得到了一個答案。
2000年底，公司終於發獎金了，已經連續三年沒發獎金了。公司大概是希望把好人做到底，年底的忘年會也由公司出麵來組織，這和前幾年職員自發組織的忘年會相比，檔次也高了不少。
週末的下午6點到9點，大家喝完了忘年會的第一場酒，接著來到卡拉OK包房。喝得醉醺醺的吉田問我是不是來過這種地方。
我說：“來過，但是可沒有這麼高檔”，
吉田一聽哈哈大笑：“這種地方也算高檔，泡沫的時候，公司的忘年會是要到銀座去的”。
“是嗎，忘年會能到銀座開，咱們公司太有錢了”，
“不僅僅是咱們公司，全日本的公司都一樣，那個時候的銀座人滿為患，至少要提前半年預定才有位子”，
“真是太好了，我怎麼沒趕上呢，真遺憾，怎麼會一下子就不景氣了呢？”
“這個你要怪罪的話，你就怪罪中國吧，我們被中國給騙了”，
吉田的回答讓我當時沒反應過來，以為吉田喝醉了。
這時，關口已經扯著嗓子開唱了，吉田也開始忙著用桌上的各種酒勾兌自己喜歡的味道。儘管是高興的日子，吉田大概又要藉酒澆愁了，他和須藤的情況很類似，所不同的是須藤在泡沫時買的是別墅，吉田買的是東京的公寓，兩人現在住著類似的房子。
在大學院的時候就經常聽小董談起日本泡沫經濟時期的繁榮景象。小董是90年來的日本，他說：他剛來的時候，每天到學校來接留學生去打工的車，平 均2個小時就一趟，1小時的工資一般是1200-1500日元，有些還可以當日結算，掙錢實在是太容易了，和現在大不相同。因為勞動力嚴重缺乏，日本政府 對很多南美和其它一些國家的偷渡者，以及簽證到期不回國的人也是睜隻眼閉隻眼。泡沫經濟崩潰會，日本的入國管理局才開始驅趕這些人。
不過，至於當時日本為什麼會如此繁榮，大家覺得本來就是這樣，在留學生中也極少議論這些問題，更不會去想這和中國有什麼關係。
自從忘年會上聽吉田說日本的泡沫繁榮是因為中國，不管是不是醉話，我還是想弄個明白。
登山的時候，我問川瀨，日本泡沫經濟和中國有什麼關係？
川瀨說：“中國開放以後，日本的電器、汽車開始大批量出口中國，去過中國的日本人說，中國和日本相比至少相差30年，中國有12億人，如果我們給中國造東西，達到日本現在的水平那得要造多少年。所以很多日本人就堅信在自己的有生之年日本經濟會一直繁榮下去”。
“果然如此，記得我一個鄰居為了買一台東芝雙缸洗衣機，一大早4點去排隊”川瀨的話讓我想起了中國改革開放初期的一些事。當時我國還沒有彩電、 錄像機、冰箱、洗衣機等等這類家電的生產線，市場上的日本電器無論是非法走私貨還是合法進口貨，最終都要出自日本的工廠。這對日本來說中國這個市場實 在是太大了。
我接著說：“想必那個時候，大家的收入一定非常高了”，
“是啊！最不景氣的公司，每年的獎金也有半年的工資”，
“掙這麼多的錢，大概也隻能買地買房了”，
“是啊！每年的獎金就可以還購房按揭了，誰會想到會發生後來的事情呢”。
日本在85年之前，住宅市場並非完全商業化的市場，80%以上的普通工薪家庭住的都是公團房、縣營房、市營房、社宅等等這類公益性住房。在這其中，1955年日本政府設立的【日本住宅公團】又是最大的住宅提供者。
上個世紀70年代末，日本的汽車、家電製造技術不僅可以與歐美抗衡，有些已經處於國際領先地位，產品開始大量出口海外。1981年，“日本住宅 工團”更名為“住宅、都市整備公團”，工作核心由直接提供住宅轉型為建設和改良城市居住基礎設施。日本住宅公團的工作轉型是日本政府希望藉日本產品大量出 口海外給日本經濟帶來繁榮的機會，為住宅商品化所作的準備，通過住宅商品化滿足國內住宅個性化需求，由此提高日本國民的居住條件。
圖２
85年的“廣場協議”讓日本人口袋裡的錢一下子增加了至少20%，促使日本政府開始加速全麵推行住宅商品化，商業銀行開始大量為居民購房發放貸款，貸款利率大幅下調(見下圖)。日本的房價也由此開始了急速攀升。
日本購房貸款利率
在日本經濟一片繁榮，房價不斷攀升中到了90年，日本各大銀行不僅突然停止購房貸款，並大幅提高原來的購房貸款利率。92年開始徵收地價稅(徵 收額度為財產繼承稅評估值的0.3%)。日本政府為什麼要出台這樣的經濟政策？日本汽車、家電等其它行業的繁榮景象為什麼也突然消失了？這意味著日本經濟 由此開始步入“泥潭”嗎？又如何看待日本經濟“空白”的十年呢？
在房價、股價一路高漲，日本經濟一片繁榮的90年3月27日，日本銀行出台了《控製不動產融資總量的通知》，這一《通知》被後來稱為日本泡沫經 濟崩潰的“發火點”，房價，股價掉頭下跌(見下圖)。當年8月，日本銀行又把短期貸款利率上調到6%。更有甚的是92年大藏省又出台了地價稅，讓已經一蹶 不振的不動產業更是雪上加霜，高端百貨業因其店址位於城市最繁華的地段，每年0.3%的地價稅竟然超過商品利潤的20%，地價稅對房價的抑製力可見一斑。
日經指數走勢圖
日本政府為什麼要出台這樣的金融政策，是他們沒有想到這些政策會導致樓市、股市大跌。那麼，在樓市、股市已經開始暴跌的92年，大藏省為什麼還要出台地價稅，讓不動產業絲毫得不到喘息的機會呢？
有不少人認為：90年之後的幾年，日本政府一連的經濟政策把日本經濟推入不能自拔的“泥潭”，讓整個日本經濟出現“空白”的十年(90年中期-2000年) 。
準確地說：不是90年的政策有問題，而是85年日本全麵開放不動產市場，寄希望通過不動產來讓日本經濟繼續保持高速發展的政策有問題。在不動產 市場全麵開放的85年-89年，日本以及世界的變化讓日本政府清楚的看到了85年所犯這一政策錯誤的嚴重性。90年以後的政策不過是對85年所犯錯誤的緊 急更正。
讓我關注有關日本泡沫經濟的諸多論說，並認可上麵的這種論斷，還得從和吉田的一次聊天說起。
六大都市地價及變動率走勢圖
每次和吉田一起去施工現場，他都會以“一早兒，稍微喝了點兒”為藉口，躺在車上看漫畫。這次，他上車就坐到了駕駛位上，我覺得挺奇怪，猜想他一 定有什麼事兒。還真是，剛進東京不久他就下了高速，在東京市區內狹窄的小路上繞來繞去，非常熟悉的把車停在了一棟30多層的公寓旁邊，讓我稍等他一下。
我下車在四周轉了轉，心裡琢磨：這可能就是吉田買的公寓，這種地段的住宅不會便宜，看來吉田在泡沫時期真發了不少獎金。
過了十幾分鐘，吉田回來對我說：“一來這裡我就心煩，安全第一，拜託了”。他這是又打算躺旁邊看漫畫了，他很隨便，和他說話也就比較直來直去。
我一邊開車一邊問他：“這是你買的公寓？”
“是。”
“這裡真是東京不錯的住宅專用地，離地鐵站很近而且還很安靜。”
吉田一聽很得意：“那當然，當時交了定金來抽籤的人是總套數的20倍，”
“你真夠幸運的。”
“幸運談不上，我沒有抽籤，咱們公司是這棟公寓的投資人之一。”
我確實有點吃驚：“怎麼，咱們公司在泡沫時期也投資不動產？”
“這有什麼奇怪，如果不是各行各業都投資不動產，不動產泡沫怎麼會那麼大。”
“看來你要參加抽籤就好了，也許抽不上，等兩年情況就截然不同了。”
“不可能，買不上這個樓盤，還要買別的樓盤，總之，那一年是下定決心一定要買。”
“看來，你的泡沫煩心病是命中註定了。”
“哈哈～～，對，讓我煩惱的信號不是從這棟樓裡發射過來，就是從那棟樓裡發射過來，總之，這種煩惱一定是要有的。”
“哈哈～～，在日本，有你這種煩惱的人太多了，應該推舉一個能讓大家消除煩惱的人當總理大臣。”
“我死的那一天就是這個總理大臣的誕生日。”
“哈哈～～，既然你一輩子都住不進自己買的公寓裡，為什麼不賣了呢？”
“開玩笑，我交了首付，還支付了十年的按揭，怎麼能賣呢？”
“如果房價剛開始下跌的時候，你就賣掉，也就不會有現在的煩惱了。”
“是啊！可我不是神，誰會想到泡沫已經崩了十年了，房價不但不漲，還在一直下跌呢。”
“泡沫剛崩的時候，也沒什麼人著急賣房，是不是大家都相信房價還有上漲的可能。”
“是，至少是堅信房價不會下跌的這麼厲害。”
“既然如此，也應該有一個相信房價不會下跌的理由吧？”
吉田想了一下說：“相信的理由很多，每個人也有自己的想法，但基本上還是依據一般的常識性判斷。日本經濟主要是依靠出口，日元升值對產品出口形成嚴重妨礙，政府肯定要增發貨幣使日元貶值，如果每年持續增發貨幣，恢復到原來日元兌換美元的匯率標準上，房價不會降。”
“那為什麼不增發貨幣呢”
“對呀！十年過去了，地價、房價一直下跌，日本的不動產價值以每年100兆、100兆的速度減少，這總理大臣換了好幾個，絲毫也看不到政府要增發貨幣的意思，真搞不懂這幫混蛋腦子裡在想什麼。”
“政府既然堅持不增發貨幣也應該有不增發的理由吧，你怎麼看？”
“這我可不知道，這是錢！！！大家都能看明白了就不是錢了。”
“哈哈～～，看來，吉田桑要擺脫煩惱隻能等下回看不明白的泡沫到來了。”
吉田長嘆了一聲：“不可能再有了，再來一次泡沫，日本人連糧食都吃不上了。”
“日本工業這麼發達，可以進口糧食。”
“開玩笑，那日本不就成了農業國的奴隸了嗎？”
“照你這麼說，政府急忙把地產泡沫捅破也是因為農地？”
“不一定是全部，但這肯定是一個非常重要的原因，這些農村的地主最討厭，泡沫的時候，一窩蜂的要在農地上蓋房子，這不等於是讓大家沒糧食吃嗎。”
“照此來說，如果從農地這個角度看，政府不增發貨幣也是有道理的。”
“對！也應該警告警告這幫地主，不許打農田的主意。可是讓我也一起跟著倒黴。”
自從聽吉田說了這番話後，對90年樓市、股市暴跌是由於日本政府金融政策不當所造成的說法產生了懷疑，我開始相信日本政府不顧一切捅破房地產泡沫是有目的的，我希望得到一個答案。所以後來，就一直比較留意有關這方麵的新聞、記事。
房地產是不是有泡沫是以實體經濟為參照物，房地產價值脫離了實體經濟的支撐就被認為是泡沫。
但是，房地產泡沫一定會崩潰，或者說房地產泡沫一定要以房價暴跌的方式來結束，這在經濟學上是找不到依據的。脫離了實體經濟支撐的房地產泡沫一定要被捅破嗎？答案也是不一定的。
在經歷了房地產泡沫崩潰的日本學術界比較主流的觀點是：房地產泡沫是不是需要被捅破主要由社會因素來決定。那麼，日本為什麼要捅破泡沫呢？
進入上個世紀80年代，伴隨中國的大門開放，一直持續繁榮的日本經濟也進入了鼎盛期。
但是，中國及其它發展中國家的彩電、冰箱等生產線的投產，讓日本政府清楚的看到了，發展中國家的低價格很快要對日本的製造業構成致命的打擊。在 單純的價格競爭麵前，日本隻有死路一條。日本依靠先進的工業製造技術、通過來料加工、出口工業製品帶動日本經濟繁榮的路，已經看到了盡頭。
在日本政府意識到了日本所麵臨的困境，但且還沒有找到應對方法的時候，“廣場協議”更是給了日本當頭一棒。使得給日本經濟帶來繁榮的製造業，陷入了既要與發展中國家的低價格抗爭，又要承受日元升值重壓的兩難境地。要保持日本經濟繼續高速增長，必須尋找新的經濟增長點。
不動產！讓日本人已經鼓鼓的腰包去投資不動產，無疑是讓日本經濟解“燃眉之急”的有效通道。開啟商業化的不動產市場，對日本農村的地主是一個最大的利好，當時執政黨(自民黨)的最大支持者就是以地主為核心的農協。
85年9月的“廣場協議”簽署後，本來就已經擔心日元貶值的日本國民，對於政府諸多的不動產優惠政策，就如同找到了一個可以讓紙幣保值的避風港，把大筆資金投入不動產市場。
當大筆的資金湧入不動產市場而使不動產開始升值的瞬間，一個潘多拉盒子——保有需求被打開了。日本的不動產屬性開始了悄然的改變，由[使用需 求]轉向[保有需求]，後果也就可想而知了。再加86年高達2位數的貨幣增發量，到了87年，在絕大部分日本人眼裡，土地已經成了最值得保有的資產。
麵對如此之大的市場需求，日本各大銀行對土地展開了激烈爭奪。通常情況下，銀行對土地抵押融資是按土地評價值的70%貸出，北海道拓值銀行以120%提供融資，由此可見土地在銀行眼裡已經成了金礦。
隨著日本不動產價格的急速攀升，投向不動產的資金也越來越多，全國的不動產開發項目一個賽過一個大，整個日本“鶯歌燕舞”，連銀座這種日本最高檔的紅燈區也成了普通人可以光顧的地方。
但另一麵，正在建設的第二東名高速因地價高漲，計劃難於推進。日本道路公團的經營狀況極度惡化。各地方性的公共投資建設也因地價高漲而困難重重。
88年，不動產業持續數年的高額利潤讓豐田汽車、富士重工、日立電機等等這些日本實體經濟的領頭羊再也按耐不住，開始大舉進入不動產業。
不動產的高速發展已經嚴重影響到了日本經濟的未來發展方向。因此，圍繞日本應如何發展的爭論越來越激烈。如果把這些爭論歸納一下，爭論主要是圍繞3個方麵展開：
1. 促進不動產業的發展是否符合日本的基本國策？
2. 不動產業的發展是否能保持日本經濟的持續繁榮？
3. 如果對以上兩個問題的回答都是“NO”，那麼什麼樣的經濟模式更適合於日本？
1990年日本泡沫經濟崩潰，表麵上看是日本政府一連串的經濟政策所致，其政策實質是日本政府對以上爭論的一個明確回答。
二戰以後，日本有兩個被稱為不變的基本國策，一個是基本農田製度，一個是科技興國戰略。
所謂的基本農田製就是日本的基本農田保有量必須能夠滿足日本的糧食自給自足，不能在糧食問題上受製於他國。不動產開發的持續高漲，直接威脅到了日本基本農田的保有量。
所謂科技興國戰略，是二戰後，日本政府對已經是一片焦土、百廢待興的日本應向什麼方向發展做過長時間的論證。曾一度想效仿荷蘭成為亞洲與歐美之 間的貿易集散地。但考慮日本與荷蘭在人口數量與所處外部環境等方麵相差甚遠，貿易集散地的構想被徹底否定，最終決定走工業科技興國的道路。
依靠不動產來拉動日本經濟的發展，很顯然是已經背離了工業科技興國這個不變國策。
日本是一個資源嚴重依賴進口的國家。要獲取資源，日本必須要用他國需要的商品來進行交換。如果投向不動產的資金越來越多，日本整個產業結構和就 業結構就會向不動產業傾斜。出口創彙的製造業就會萎縮，能夠從他國獲取的資源也就越來越少。10年、20年後，隨著發展中國家的崛起，本無價格優勢的日本 產品連技術優勢也將失去。再沒有了可以和別國交換的商品，日本人對不動產的爭奪就如同貧窮的村民去爭奪無電、無暖、無氣、無油的土坯草房。
所以，儘管企業和人都離不開土地，土地的價值應該占到企業利潤的多少？應該占到個人收入的多少？這在世界上也沒有標準。但是，日本資源匱乏必須 用高技術含量的產品去交換，這在日本社會是一種共識。日本的住宅市場價格，自55年設立日本住宅公團到85年一直就是由政府主導。所以，日本政府把泡沫捅 破有足夠的社會基礎。還想再重複說明的一點是：談論房地產是不是有泡沫，首先要界定房地產是被當做“工具”來使用還是被當做“古董”來收藏。隻有被當做 “工具”時，房價才能和實體經濟直接聯繫在一起。如果被當做“古董”，房價和實體經濟就沒有了直接聯繫。如果沒有這樣的界定，房地產有無泡沫也就無法談 起，結果隻能是各說各話。
