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Jostein Hauge tariffs unlikely hurt China but Harm Us All

(2025-07-07 05:54:10) 下一個

Jostein Hauge tariffs unlikely hurt China but Harm Us All

Jostein Hauge US tariffs unlikely to hurt China or incentivize America

A Cambridge economist suggests that recent US tariffs, despite aiming to boost the American economy, are unlikely to significantly harm China or incentivize the US to increase its industrial output. While the tariffs might lead to some degree of economic adjustment for both nations, the overall impact may be less substantial than anticipated, and could even negatively affect the US economy. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
  • Limited Impact on China:
    While the tariffs will undoubtedly affect Chinese exporters, China is likely to adapt by seeking new markets, expanding domestic consumption, or potentially finding ways to mitigate the impact through government support. Analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that a 60% tariff could reduce China's real GDP by roughly 2 percentage points. However, China's government is prepared to implement stimulus measures and support exporters to cushion the blow. 
     
  • Unlikely to Spur US Industrial Growth:
    The tariffs were intended to encourage domestic production and manufacturing, but the Cambridge economist suggests that the impact on the US economy might be more complex. Higher import prices could lead to increased inflation and potentially slow overall economic growth. The Bank of Canada noted that retaliatory tariffs from other countries could further reduce US exports. 
     
  • Uncertainty and Potential for Long-Term Effects:
    The economist highlights that the anxiety and uncertainty surrounding tariffs can be as damaging as the tariffs themselves. Businesses may delay investments and expansions due to the unpredictable trade environment, potentially impacting long-term economic growth. 
     
  • Global Economic Consequences:
    The trade war between the US and China has global implications, and the tariffs could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth. The potential for increased protectionism and trade barriers could further disrupt global supply chains and trade flows. 
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Why Trump’s China Trade War Will Harm Us All
 
Novara Media  2025年4月11日  
 
With Michael Walker, Aaron Bastani and Jostein Hauge of the University of Cambridge
00:00 Intro
01:14 Why Trump’s China Trade War Will Harm Us All
16:51 Cambridge Economist Explains Why China Will Win Trump’s Trade War
39:24 UK Parliament Recalled To Debate Steel Nationalisation
45:56 Donald Trump is Too Right Wing For Joe Rogan
Intro
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