耶魯大學經濟學家斯蒂芬·羅奇揭露了有關中國貿易戰的驚人秘密
Yale Economist Stephen Roach Reveals Shocking SECRET About China Trade War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlrS0p9jL8&t=10s
2025年2月16日
斯蒂芬·羅奇參加節目，討論中美關係、貿易戰、台灣問題以及他改善這兩個超級大國關係的解決方案。 在此加入斯蒂芬·羅奇的新聞通訊：
https://stephenroach.substack.com/
0:00 - 斯蒂芬·羅奇簡介
1:40 - 中美關係為何變得如此糟糕？
2:43 - 美國為何需要與中國重新接觸
4:34 - 中美貿易戰
6:13 - 美國人為何不理解關稅
7:40 - 針對中國的關稅為何會傷害美國人
8:41 - 加拿大和墨西哥為何成為關稅目標？
12:34 - 唐納德·特朗普是中國鷹派嗎？
14:32 - 阻止中國為何徹底失敗
18:07 - 台灣的未來是什麽？
20:40 - 美中關係的未來會怎樣？
21:45 - 為什麽美國的對華戰略存在缺陷
22:17 - 如何永久修複美中關係！
25:26 - 世界應該了解中國什麽？
27:15 - 最後的想法
斯蒂芬·羅奇簡介
總統是中國鷹派，他身邊都是誌同道合的人，你知道他可能想和習近平達成協議，因為他喜歡說他已經壓製了強大的外國敵對勢力，但你知道，我們沒有理由樂觀，如果有什麽的話，我認為我們已經給中國注入了更大的動力，讓中國自主開發最先進的技術，並且以一種不像我們希望的那樣依賴美國技術的方式做到這一點，這是史蒂文·羅奇教授，他是世界上最受尊敬的經濟學家之一，也是美國和中國經濟的內幕人士，羅奇教授的業績是史無前例的，他在摩根士丹利工作了 30 年，擔任該公司的首席經濟學家，後來成為摩根士丹利亞洲主席，教授roach 現在是貴大學的高級研究員，並於 2022 年撰寫了一本名為《意外衝突美國中國與虛假敘事的衝突》的書。在今天的節目中，我與 roach 教授坐下來討論籠罩中美關係的虛假敘事。我們討論了唐納德特朗普的回歸以及他的新貿易戰對美國和中國經濟意味著什麽。roach 教授分享了中國如何為未來做準備的見解，但最重要的是，我們討論了他的創新常識解決方案，它可以立即改善美中關係，如果你想真正了解 2025 年美國和中國之間會發生什麽，這是為你準備的一集，讓我們開始吧，各位，我很榮幸歡迎來自貴大學的 Steven Roos 教授來到演播室
因為我相信中美關係是世界上最重要的地緣政治關係，我們現在在2025年2月在哪裏，我們是如何走到今天這一步的，中美之間的緊張關係，目前，兩國關係處於曆史最低點，很大程度上是貿易戰的結果，這場貿易戰是由特朗普總統在他的第一屆政府中發起的，在拜登政府執政期間仍在繼續，而且看起來，在特朗普2.0初期，貿易戰又一次升級，以國家安全擔憂為幌子，你甚至可以說，美國的共和黨和民主黨都對從抖音和華為到深度尋求中國電動汽車碼頭裝卸起重機等任何事情都反應非常強烈，無論中國有什麽動向，我們都認為這是一種威脅，是的，我的意思是，我會。
為什麽美國需要與中國重新接觸
我想進一步闡述一下，因為你在時事通訊中寫了很多關於恐犬症的文章，你經常談論這種對中國的非理性恐懼，幸運的是，這是美國政治家們唯一能做到的事情，民主黨和共和黨幾乎在所有方麵都對中國抱有這種非理性的恐懼，就像你說的，所有這些不同的行業，基本上任何來自中國的技術都被視為國家安全威脅，有什麽辦法可以解決這個問題，或者我們該如何將常識帶回華盛頓，華盛頓的常識有點矛盾，對吧，這些天，這將是一場漫長的鬥爭，你知道我自己的感覺是，嗯，你開始談論世界上最重要的關係，我有這個共識，我們需要集中精力關於重新接觸，如果我們確實相信這是世界上最重要的關係，而重新接觸被認為是一個四個字母的詞，鑒於我們剛才描述的心態，但你知道我們有幾個選擇，那就是繼續升級衝突或找出解決衝突的方法，從我們的角度按照我們的條件解決衝突，是的，但同時要尊重中國體係的需求和特點，所以我們必須重建信任，真正對我們開展跨境貿易的方式有更廣闊的視野，然後努力建立一個安全和可靠的新架構，以便我們兩國之間進行接觸，非常好，我們稍後會討論這個問題，嗯，你有一個關於秘書的絕妙想法，你知道這可能有助於美中關係我們稍後再討論這個問題，但我想談談。
中美貿易戰
關於這場新的貿易戰，你知道我們正處於一場全新的貿易戰的邊緣，嗯，我的意思是，我們已經看到唐納德特朗普甚至威脅要對我們最親密的兩個盟友加拿大墨西哥征收 25% 的關稅，這些關稅至少暫時停止了，嗯，但我們確實看到針對中國的新關稅是 10% 的關稅，嗯，這很有趣，與唐納德特朗普在競選期間警告和預測的 60% 關稅相比，這是一個非常大的削減，嗯，你如何看待這場與中國的新貿易戰，顯然中國也通過對來自美國的許多商品征收關稅進行報複，但當我們談論經濟和這場新的貿易戰時，我們處於什麽位置，我們在未來期待什麽，請記住賽勒斯，嗯，這是在現有的 19% 的基礎上增加 10%特朗普 2018 年和 2019 年的關稅至今仍在實施，與之前的關稅不同，我認為這些關稅涵蓋了中國向我們發送的大約三分之二的商品，這些新的關稅涵蓋了所有進口商品，因此，現在對從中國進口的商品征收的實際關稅接近 30%，這對他們的經濟來說是一個沉重的負擔，而他們的經濟顯然正在苦苦掙紮，但這肯定是美國納稅人的負擔，他們現在正受到來自中國的產品價格進一步上漲的打擊，而對於一位承諾降低價格以解決美國人嚴重錢包問題的總統來說，情況恰恰相反，是的，
為什麽美國人不理解關稅，
我絕對想擴大關稅，因為我認為人們對關稅存在誤解關稅，你知道，例如，我看到了這條推文，關於關稅的四個事實，關稅不會導致通貨膨脹，關稅會導致美國消費者價格下降，關稅為美國創造就業機會，關稅會導致所得稅降低，讓我們從經濟學家的角度看，你能分析一下這些評論，給我們多一點常識，讓我們了解關稅到底起什麽作用嗎，你確定這是來自金融家還是來自白宮，我的意思是，這聽起來很像是把我們總統對關稅的複雜觀點結合起來，他完全不明白關稅是什麽，從他的角度來看，關稅是對外國征收的稅，他想把這種稅拿回來，用來資助他的 Maga 議程，但他沒有意識到的是，關稅是在港口由負責進口的美國公司支付的，所以這是這會增加我們的成本，而降低價格可以創造就業機會，開辟新的機遇，這一點政客可能會爭辯，但據我所知，沒有一位可信的經濟學家相信這一點，是的，這很有道理，謝謝你把它分解並簡化，我隻是想把它說出來，這樣我們的觀眾才能真正理解這一點，並告訴我們這些新關稅。
為什麽對華關稅會傷害美國人
因為我確實認為還有另一項規定，例如，你知道，長期以來，價格低於 800 美元的商品，這肯定會影響中國公司，如 shien um 和 Teemu，但基本上，這些付款，你知道，如果它們低於 800 美元，它們就不會受到恐怖主義的影響，我相信現在也已經包括在內了，對嗎？所以基本上就像你之前說的，現在所有來自中國的東西都要繳納這種新稅，我認為這是真的，我聽到了同樣的事情，我還沒有檢查昨天在國家登記冊上公布的確切規定，但如果有明顯的傾向來捕捉這一點，我一點也不會感到驚訝，但同樣，這將由那些想在 Tei 或 alib 上購買低成本中國商品的個人支付，他們現在將受到這些打擊成本增加，嗯，你知道，它的覆蓋範圍比現行關稅要全麵得多，讓我們來談談加拿大和
為何加拿大和墨西哥成為征收關稅的對象？
墨西哥，我認為這對美國很重要，因為這很有趣，你可以提出這樣的論點，中國是美國的潛在對手或競爭對手，如果你要對中國征收關稅，一些美國人當然可以理解，但真正針對加拿大和墨西哥的理由是什麽，白宮顯然說這是因為芬太尼，因為這個問題，但稍微擴展一下，幫助我們更多地了解這實際上意味著什麽，如果對我們的加拿大鄰國和墨西哥鄰國征收 25% 的關稅，這對他們的經濟和我們自己的經濟會有什麽影響，首先，作為這個重要問題的前言，如果我們與墨西哥存在芬太尼問題，或者與墨西哥存在移民問題，順便說一句，數字表明，盡管總統聲稱，加拿大沒有這些問題，我的意思是，美國芬太尼販運量為零，大約 4/10 4/10來自加拿大，你知道，過去 10 年，隻有不到 2% 的非法移民來自加拿大，所以我們在那裏沒有問題，我們與墨西哥有問題，讓我們在麵對麵談判的基礎上解決這些問題，但不要使用關稅來試圖實現這一目標，處理跨境貿易流動的關稅直指特朗普總統在 2020 年所說的現代曆史上最偉大的貿易協議的核心，即美國墨西哥加拿大協議，即 USMCA，這三個北美國家已經深度整合了供應鏈連接，其中商品複雜的商品汽車就是典型的例子，在成品交付給經銷商之前，商品在邊境來回翻轉八九次，這是一個非常非常高效的先進現代綜合三邊生產係統，對我們的盟友征稅，他們是該生產係統的關鍵齒輪，這基本上意味著要拆散生產平台是由現代曆史上最偉大的貿易協議建立的，你知道加拿大顯然是一個自豪的主權國家，不像唐納德·特朗普所說的，一個通過成為我們珍視的第 51 個州而受益匪淺的國家，他們感到自豪，他們感到憤怒，他們感到憤怒，你知道總統昨天在退縮，在 tffs 上退縮，聲稱他得到了一些邊境保護，實際上已經實施了，無論如何，你知道 30 天的寬限期，你知道，如果他想回去，再次試圖擠壓我們最偉大的盟友之一，我們最偉大的經濟合作者之一，你知道荒謬的關稅計劃，如果他這樣做，你知道加拿大人會以黑桃報複，這將是一場逐底競爭，是的，我認為根本沒有贏家，我的意思是它會我認為美國消費者和加拿大消費者肯定會成為最大的輸家，我的意思是，自伊拉克戰爭以來，我們第一次看到加拿大人在冰球比賽中對國歌發出噓聲，你知道，這絕對不是你想要的對待你的方式，就像你說的，你最親密的盟友和你最親密的人很生氣，你知道他們很生氣，你知道，我們竟然膽敢攻擊一個國家，我們與這個國家有著世界上最長的邊界，而且我們在各個方麵都保持著一種令人驚歎的合作合作關係，而且已經有很長一段時間了，是的，絕對的，讓我們把話題轉回來
唐納德·特朗普是中國鷹派嗎？
特別是關於美中關係，我想聽聽你對唐納德特朗普2.0的看法，嗯，你知道我想聽聽你對這種關係未來的看法，因為我相信唐納德特朗普的政府中有很多非常鷹派的人，上周有傳言說，一位紳士凱爾·巴斯（Kyle Bass）會加入特朗普政府，他公開表示，中國是美國的死敵，我認為他是一個極端主義者，我不認為他會為總統和他的政府提供可靠的建議，你知道你是否擔心唐納德特朗普與鷹派人士交往並將他們帶入他的政府，這將如何影響美中關係的未來，你知道他喜歡中國鷹派，我的意思是記住他有前罪犯彼得納瓦羅再次在白宮為他工作，他的最後一本關於中國的書名為《死於中國》，凱爾·巴斯是我唯一的兄弟，我認為彼得·納瓦羅對中國持有極端觀點，你知道，馬可·盧比奧國務卿對中國非常鷹派，國家安全顧問沃爾茲也是一位公開的對華鷹派，但你知道，最重要的是，總統是一個對華鷹派，他身邊都是誌同道合的人，你知道他可能想和習近平達成協議，因為他喜歡說他已經中和了強大的外國敵對勢力，但你知道，沒有理由對此抱有樂觀態度，中國顯然非常咄咄逼人，在某些情況下甚至令人擔憂，他們有自己的野心，你知道，我們有一項真正專注於遏製呃，如果不打倒中國呃，正如我們所知，所以我們很難逆轉
阻止中國是如何完全失敗的
當然，你嗯，讓我們談談你對最新技術突破的看法，我的意思是顯然深度搜索 R1 它絕對讓華爾街感到震驚，損失了一萬億美元呃你知道第二天因為你知道這個驚人的技術突破呃那是開源的，我的意思是它真的是給世界的禮物，這是一個偉大的技術，隻需花費開放人工智能能夠做到這一點的一小部分成本，你認為這是美國的遏製戰略的一個例子呃真的無法奏效我的意思是這真的是真的真的不可能遏製中國，因為他們隻是想找到一種創新的方法，我上周寫了一篇文章，得到了很多評論，嗯認為拜登政府的這種旨在阻止中國技術發展的“小院子高牆”的做法，正如人們所描述的那樣，是徹底的失敗。我舉了兩個例子來證明，鳳凰城的非凡複興，比如華為，然後是深度開發大型語言機器學習模型的出現，它們可以提供與我們在美國最先進的 IIA 機器相當的輸出，正如你所說，成本隻有 5% 到 10%，所以你知道我們在“小院子高牆”方麵取得了什麽成就，就技術遏製而言，如果說有什麽不同的話，我認為是中國獲得了更大的激勵，讓中國自主開發最先進的技術，並且以一種不像我們希望的那樣依賴美國技術的方式進行開發，我的意思是，我再次回到華為，有很多現在的焦點是深度搜索，但華為你知道他們有一款非常有競爭力的智能手機，兼容 5G，兼容人工智能，不再依賴安卓操作係統，他們依靠自己內部開發的操作係統，而且它是一種低成本、非常強大的高價替代品，可以替代蘋果、三星和深度搜索。你知道美國人工智能社區再次抱怨，而這正是美國一直擅長的，我們如何應對中國創新，我們多年來一直在抱怨，他們抱怨深度搜索借鑒了美國建立的大型語言模型的輸出，順便說一句，這些指控尚未得到證實，但你知道，像開放人工智能這樣的公司抱怨像深度搜索這樣的真正開放的係統正在利用他們的輸出，這本身就是一種極大的虛偽。是的，這很了不起，我的意思是，嗯，我起訴了那個開放人工智能，如果他們想保護他們的專有搜索技術，就把公司名稱改為封閉人工智能，是的，教授，這是一個很好的觀點，我認為我們已經肯定看到的是，需要是發明之母，我們肯定看到中國能夠用更少的資源做更多的事情，呃，我的意思是，我不會打賭中國不會發展科技，我的意思是，當你去那裏旅行時，你肯定可以看到他們生活的先進社會，肯定處於最偉大技術的尖端，這是回到中國總是令人興奮
台灣的未來是什麽？
但我想談一談我認為美中關係的基石是台灣，當然是這種關係中非常非常重要的一部分，我確實看到了《紐約時報》的一篇文章，非常了不起，台灣總統說台灣和中國需要和平，這給國際帶來了多重變化，他希望尋求對話而不是對抗，我認為這是非常積極的發展，你知道，當然，關於這一點，請告訴我你對台灣的看法，以及這件事在未來中美關係中將如何發展，你知道，這對中國共產黨領導人來說顯然非常重要，去年年底的一次講話中，習近平闡述了他所謂的四條紅線，這是他最關心的不可忽視的問題，首要任務是台灣，這當然意味著，任何威脅台灣的人，台灣獨立正在越過最大的紅線。最近有很多報道稱，北京在軍事上取得了新的突破，正在建造大型防禦堡壘，為可能發生的戰爭做準備。我不太相信這些報道被認為與未來幾年的戰爭一致，我們喜歡認為美國的情況就是如此。但台灣問題肯定是一個需要以某種方式解決的問題，希望在未來5到10年內和平解決。兩岸經濟一體化取得了很大進展。我認為需要一種更好的方法來管理不僅是中國和台灣之間的地緣戰略緊張局勢，而且中國和美國之間的地緣戰略緊張局勢。我們的政客們繼續支持台灣獨立。因此，像南希·佩洛西幾年前夏天所做的那樣，通過進行半官方訪問，確實對兩國關係的穩定造成了重大挫折，是的，絕對的，我認為，呃，台台問題當然也是美中關係的基石，嗯，但是，還有哪些其他關鍵變量將決定美中關係的未來，我的意思是，我們有貿易戰，我們有台灣問題，您還關注什麽其他問題
如果美中關係的未來會怎樣？
兩國關係的未來，從貿易和技術到工業政策，再到對中國和美國國有企業的補貼，都涉及到雙方都至關重要的全球性問題，例如全球健康、氣候變化、網絡安全，當然還有人權，我認為我們需要建立一個新的雙邊秘書處，讓兩國全天候、持續地以非常專業的技術官僚水平處理這些和許多其他問題，這樣當出現我們毫無準備的情況時，無論是間諜氣球還是台灣海峽的海軍事故，我們都有專家和官方支持來解決問題，並以目前的方式就這些棘手問題達成協議的
為什麽美國對華戰略存在缺陷
接觸賽勒斯是我們已經將其外包給政治驅動的領導人，我們過分強調領導人對外交的態度，我認為這很重要，但你知道我們需要一個製度上的補充來支持領導人對外交的態度，以保持這種關係不斷向前發展，依靠專業知識而不是政治領導人的個人想法，你能詳細說明一下嗎？
如何永遠修複美中關係！
秘書處的想法，我希望我真的希望人們理解這一點，你知道，幾周前，我有幸在舊金山聽到你的演講，我們都在那裏參加未來中美關係會議，你的開幕式主旨演講非常精彩，我認為你演講中一個非常關鍵的點是，談到這個秘書處，這將是一個個人，是一個團隊，是由美國任命的，你如何設想，真正致力於促進這種中美關係，這將是一個雙邊秘書，這將是曆史上兩個大國之間第一個秘書處組織，它將由美國和中國專業科學家、貿易律師、經濟學家等同等數量的人員組成，如果你想要的話，嗯，健康法律問題專家，以及我剛才提到的所有其他問題，它將設在一個中立的地點，可能是瑞士，可能是新加坡，可能是這與現有的秘書處有很大不同，這些秘書處是我們許多跨國或多邊組織的核心，例如聯合國、東非大都會組織世界貿易組織、世界衛生組織，這些組織主要是為了行政上的便利而設立的，它將是一個專注於協作解決棘手政策的組織，涵蓋從經濟和貿易到全球衛生網絡安全和氣候變化等諸多問題，它們將負責製定協作白皮書，旨在就這些問題提供政策或新協議，這些政策或協議將被納入兩國政府的立法程序，並通過秘書處的運作下進行的談判解決，當爭端發生時，正如它們在任何複雜的多邊或雙邊協議中不可避免地會發生的那樣，將有一個爭端篩選功能和爭端解決功能，以避免衝突，所以這是一種不同於我們現在的參與方式，我認為我們需要一種新的參與方式，因為目前的再次強調，在領導人看來，外交手段並沒有奏效，看看我們現在所處的衝突，所以我們需要一個新的工具，一個新的腿，來建立一種我認為更富有成效的、更少對抗的中美關係，這是一個非常棒的見解，感謝您打破了秘書處的想法，您顯然不隻是一個人，而是一個由我們和中國組成的整個團隊，中立的位置，我喜歡從與我們目前正在做的事情不同的事情轉變的想法，並且絕對保持開放的溝通渠道 247，這些都是一些令人驚歎的收獲，教授，我非常喜歡我們今天的談話，我還有最後一個問題想問我的所有客人，
世界應該了解中國什麽？
你知道你想讓世界知道的關於中國的一件事是什麽嗎？大多數人誤解了什麽？或者如果你有一件事可以告訴所有人，那會是什麽？他們和我們其他人一樣，有非常人性化的需求，我們傾向於詆毀或把中國人當作外來人口，你知道，他們來自一個與我們截然不同的地方，不久前，他們還是一個貧窮的國家，1980 年，80% 的人口是農村人口，他們從那時起已經取得了長足的進步，但他們在提高生活水平以達到更發達社會的水平方麵還有很長的路要走，他們渴望經濟發展和繁榮，就像我們一樣，他們稱之為中國夢，就像我們稱之為美國夢一樣，中國夢的實現並不一定意味著那是一種威脅其他國家的夢想，包括我們自己的美國夢，所以我認為我們需要回過頭來加深對中國人民的需求和願望的理解，認識到他們有一個不同的係統來組織他們的政府，但這並不一定改變該係統背後的真正需求，這是一個很棒的答案，我認為很多時候我們都會忘記，你知道在中國，有家庭、丈夫和妻子，還有普通人，他們的生活和我們的生活沒有太大的不同，我們都在努力在生活中進步，努力讓世界變得更美好，所以，羅奇教授，我非常感謝你今天抽出時間，你的見解很棒，在哪裏可以
Yale Economist Stephen Roach Reveals Shocking SECRET About China Trade War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlrS0p9jL8&t=10s
2025年2月16日
Stephen Roach joins the show to discuss US China Relations, the Trade War, Taiwan, and his solution to improve the relationship between these two superpowers. Join Stephen Roach's Newsletter here: https://stephenroach.substack.com/
0:00 - Intro to Stephen Roach
1:40 - How Did US China Relationship Get This Bad?
2:43 - Why the US Needs Re-engagement with China
4:34 - The US China Trade War
6:13 - Why Americans Don't Understand Tariffs
7:40 - Why Tariffs Against China Hurt Americans
8:41 - Why is Canada and Mexico Targeted with Tariffs?
12:34 - Is Donald Trump a China Hawk?
14:32 - How Stopping China Completely Failed
18:07 - What is the Future of Taiwan?
20:40 - What if the Future of US China Relations?
21:45 - Why America's Strategy with China is Flawed
22:17 - How to Fix the US China Relationship Forever!
25:26 - What Should the World Know About China?
27:15 - Final Thoughts
Intro to Stephen Roach
the president is a China hawkk he surrounded himself with likeminded uh
individuals you know he might uh want to cut a deal with xiin ping because he
likes being able to say that he has um neutralized strong foreign adversarial
Powers but uh you know there's no reason to be optimistic if anything we have
instilled I think greater incentive on
China to um develop state of the art
technology indigenously and to do so in
a way that is not nearly as dependent on
us technology as we would like to
believe this is Professor Steven roach
he is one of the world's most respected
economists and an Insider into both the
US and Chinese economies Professor
roach's track record is unprecedented he
enjoyed a 30-year career with Morgan
Stanley serving as the company's Chief
Economist and later becoming the
chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia
Professor roach is now a senior fellow
at yo University and in 202 2 authored a
book entitled accidental conflict
America China and The Clash of false
narratives in today's show I sit down
with Professor roach to discuss the
exact false narratives clouding the US
China relationship we discussed the
return of Donald Trump and what his new
trade war will mean for both the US and
Chinese economies Professor roach shares
insights into how China is preparing for
the future but most importantly we
discuss his Innovative Common Sense
solution that could instantly improve us
China relations if you want to really
understand what will happen between the
US and China in 2025 this is the episode
for you let's begin everyone I'm very
honored to welcome into the studio
Professor Steven Roos from y University
How Did US China Relationship Get This Bad?
because I believe that the US China
relationship is the most important
geopolitical relationship in the world
where are we right now in February 2025
and basically how have we gotten to this
point with this tension between the US
and China well the relationship is in an
all-time low at this point in time in
large part uh an outgrowth of trade war
that was started by President Trump in
his first Administration and um one that
continued under the Biden Administration
and uh looks like it is once again
ratcheting up in the early days of trump
2.0 um under the guise of National
Security fears uh you might even say
paranoia in the US Republicans and
Democrats alike react very very strongly
uh to anything pertaining to from Tik
Tock and Huawei to uh deep seek Chinese
electric vehicles dock loading cranes
You Name It Whatever China has its hand
on WE view as a threat yeah I mean I'd
Why the US Needs Re-engagement with China
like to expand upon that because you've
you've written a lot about um cynophobia
in your newsletter you talk a lot about
how this has these irrational fears of
China have really fortunately it's been
the one thing that has United
politicians in the United States both
Democrats and Republicans have this
irrational fear of China um in in almost
every way like you said all of these
different Industries basically any Tech
coming from China is deemed a national
security threat um is there any way to
get around that or do we move on from
that how do we bring Common Sense back
to Washington well common sense in
Washington is a bit of an oxymoron right
these days um that's a that's going to
be a long a long struggle you know my
own my own feeling is that um you
started this out Cyrus about talking
about the world's most important
relationship I have this um out of
consensus view that we need to focus on
re-engagement if indeed we do believe
this is the world's most important
relationship and re-engagement um is
considered to be a four-letter word
given the mindset uh that we just
described and yet you know we have we
have a couple of choices here and that
is continue to escalate the conflict or
figure out a way to resolve the conflict
and resolve the conflict from our point
of view on our terms yes but be
respectful of the uh the needs and
characteristics of the Chinese system at
the same time so we've got to rebuild
trust uh really have a more expansive
outlook for the way in which we conduct
crossb uh trade uh and then work hard on
building up a secure and uh Dependable
uh new architecture for engagement
between our Nations very good we're
going to talk about that a little later
um you have an amazing idea about a
secretar that could you know potentially
help this us China relationship we'll
get into that later but I want to talk
The US China Trade War
about this new trade War you know we're
on the cusp of a brand new trade War um
I mean we've seen threats from Donald
Trump to even put 25% tariffs on two of
our closest allies obviously Canada
Mexico those have been stopped
temporarily at least um but we did see
new tariffs go against China it was a
10% tariff uh which is interesting which
was a very big reduction from the 60%
tariffs that Donald Trump had warned and
forecasted you know during his campaign
uh what do you make of this new trade
war with China obviously China's also
retaliated by putting tariffs on number
of goods from the United States but
where we at and what are we looking for
in the future when we're talking about
economics and this new trade War well
keep in mind Cyrus that that um this is
10% on top of a pre-existing 19%
courtesy of uh the Trump tariffs of 2018
and 19 that are still in place today and
unlike those earlier tariffs which
covered see I think about 2third of the
goods China uh sends to us these new
this new 10% covers 100% everything that
comes in so the the effective tariff is
now close to 30% on Goods coming in from
uh China that's a big burden on their
economy which is uh clearly struggling
right now uh but it's certainly a burden
on the American taxpayer who is now
being hit with additional price hikes uh
of um uh products coming in from China and for
a president who ran on the the promise
of lowering prices for Americans to deal
with their serious pocketbook concerns
this is going the other way yeah
Why Americans Don't Understand Tariffs
absolutely I I I want to I want to
expand upon that tariffs because I think
there's such a misconception with with
tariffs uh you know for example I saw
this tweet four truths about tariffs
tariffs don't cause inflation tariffs
lead to lower prices for American
consumers tariffs create American jobs
and tariffs lead to lower income taxes
take us from a the mind of an economist
can you break down these comments and
just kind of give us a little bit more
common sense into what tariffs really do
well are you sure that came from a
financial guy or did did it come from
the White House I mean that sounds
pretty much like it's pairing the
convoluted views of our president on
tariffs who absolutely does not
understand what a tariff is uh from his
point of view tariffs are a tax on
foreign countries and he wants to
capture that tax and bring it back home
and it to fund his Maga agenda what that
fails to appreciate is the tariffs are
paid um at the the port uh of um
embarcation by American companies who do
the importing so it's it's a cost
increase on us and the idea that that
lowers prices creates jobs and opens up
great new opportunities is something
that you know a politician might argue
but there's there's no credible
Economist that I know of that believes
that yeah that makes sense thank you for
breaking it down and simplifying that I
just wanted to get that out there so our
audience can really understand that and
and tell us about this these new tariffs
Why Tariffs Against China Hurt Americans
because I I do think there's also
another provision for example that uh
you know for examp for a long time items
that were under $800 uh and this would
definitely affect Chinese companies like
shien um and also Teemu but basically
these payments you know if they were
under $800 they would not be subject to
teror I believe that has now been
included as well is that correct there
so basically like you said earlier is it
everything now coming from China is
subject to this new tax and new I think
that's true I've heard the same thing I
have not uh checked the exact uh
stipulations as published yesterday in
the National register but but that would
not surprise me at all if there was a
clear inclination to capture that but
again that is going to be paid by say
you know individuals who want to buy
lowcost Chinese Goods on Tei or alib
they'll now be hit with these cost
increases and um you know it's far more
comprehensive in terms of coverage than
the current tariffs that are that are
now in place let's talk about Canada and
Why is Canada and Mexico Targeted with Tariffs?
Mexico I think this is important for the
United States and because it's it's
interesting you could you could make the
argument that China you know is
potentially an adversary or certainly a
competitor to the United States you know
if you're going to put tariffs on China
some Americans can certainly understand
that but what is the rationale with with
really going after Canada and Mexico
obviously the White House says it's
because of the fenol and because of this
this problems but expand upon this a
little bit help us understand more about
what this would actually mean if if 25%
tariffs uh were were hit to our Canadian
neighbors and also our Mexican neighbors
what would that look for their economies
but also our own economy well first of
all just just as a pre preface to that
uh important question if we have a
fentanyl problem with Mexico uh or an
immigration problem uh with Mexico and
by the way number show that we have n
none of those problems Canada despite
what the president claims and I mean
zero like 4/10 of a percent of fentanyl
traffic in the US 4/10 comes from Canada
you know less than 2% of illegal
immigration over the last 10 years has
come from Canada so we don't have
problems there we do have them with
Mexico let's address them on the basis
of uh negotiating uh head-to-head on
those issues but not use tariffs to try
to accompl
that um uh that that end uh the tariffs
uh which deal with crossb trade flows go
right to the heart of what president
Trump called in 2020 uh the greatest
trade deal in modern history the US
Mexico Canada agreement known as usmca
uh and the three North American
countries have deeply integrated supply
chain connectivity where Goods
sophisticated Goods Autos being the
class classic example flip back and
forth across uh the borders eight or
nine times before the finished product
um is um delivered to dealers Lots uh
this is a very very efficient
state-of-the-art modern integrated
trilateral production system and taxing
uh our allies who are key cogs in that
production system basically means
ripping apart the production platform
that was established by quote the
greatest trade deal in modern history
you know Canada is um clearly a proud
and sovereign country unlike uh what
Donald Trump says is a country that
would benefit handsomely by becoming our
cherished 51st state they're proud
they're angry they're pissed off and uh
you know the president flinched
yesterday uh in backing down on tffs
claimed that he got some Border prote
Protection that actually was already in
place uh in in any case you know 30-day
grace period to um you know figure out
uh if he wants to go back and again try
to squeeze one of our greatest allies
one of our greatest uh economic
collaborators uh with a you know
ridiculous tariff scheme and if he does
you know the Canadians will retaliate in
Spades and it'll be a race to the bottom
yeah I think there's there's no winner
in that at all I mean it's going to be I
think the US consumer and the Canadian
consumer is certainly going to be the
biggest losers I mean we saw for the
first time I think since the Iraqi War
Canadians actually booing the national
anthem at hockey games uh you know
certainly not the way you want to be
treating your like you said your closest
Ally and your closest they're angry you
know they're understandably angry that
you know we would have the audacity to
turn on a nation that we share the
longest border of any two nations in um
uh the world and that we have had an
amazingly Cooperative collaborative
relationship with on all terms uh for a
long long period of time yeah absolutely
let's let's shift this conversation back
<<<<>>>>>Is Donald Trump a China Hawk?
to us China relations specifically and I
want to get your thoughts on uh Donald
Trump 2.0 um you know I want to get your
thoughts on the future of this
relationship because I I believe that
Donald Trump is surrounding himself with
very hawkish people in his
administration there was a rumor last
week that a gentleman Kyle bass for
example uh would join Trump's
Administration he he has gone on the
record saying that China is a mortal
enemy of the United States I think he's
an extremist I wouldn't think that he
would be providing solid advice to the
president and his his administration you
know are are you worried about the
hawkish people that Donald Trump is
associating himself with and bringing
into his administration and and how will
that affect the future of us China
relations you know he loves uh China
Hawks I mean keep in mind he's got uh
the ex-convict Peter Navaro working for
him once again in the White House his
last book on China was called Death by
China uh Kyle bass is a sole brother I
think of Peter Navaro in terms of his
extreme views on China and um you know
Marco Rubio Secretary of State very
hawkish on China um the National
Security advisor uh Waltz is also a an
avowed China Hawk but you know bottom
line is the president is a China Hawk he
surrounded himself with likeminded
individuals you know he might uh want to
cut a deal with um uh xinping because he
likes being able to say that he is um
neutralized strong foreign adversarial
Powers but uh you know there's no reason
to be optimistic that that is uh in the
offing China has uh clearly very
aggressive and in some cases worrisome
Ambitions of their own and um you know
we have a policy that is really focused
on containing uh if not bringing down
China uh as we know and so it's it's
going to be difficult for us to reverse
<<<>>>How Stopping China Completely Failed
course do you um let's get your thoughts
on on the latest tech breakthrough I
mean obviously deep seek R1 it
absolutely rattled Wall Street over a
trillion dollars lost uh you know the
next day because you know this amazing
technological breakthrough uh that is
open source I mean it truly is a gift to
the world it is a great piece of
technology done for fractions of the
cost that open AI was able to do that do
you think that this is an example of
this this containment strategy from the
United States uh not really a able to
work I mean is this really is it really
just impossible to contain China because
they're just going to figure out a way
to innovate well I wrote a um an essay
last week that got a lot of comments
that um argued that this um small yard
high fence approach of the Biden
Administration as has been described
aimed at stopping uh Chinese technology
dead in its track is an abject failure
and I cited two examples to prove that
the extraordinary reemergence of Phoenix
like of Huawei and then um the emergence
of of deep seat uh to create large
language uh machine learning models uh
they can deliver comparable output to
our state-of-the-art IIA machines uh in
America uh as you put it correctly at 5
to 10% of of of of the cost so um you
know what have we accomplished with the
small yard high fence in terms of
Technology containment if anything we
have instilled I think greater incentive
on China to um develop state-of-the-art
technology indigenously and to do so in
a way that is not nearly as dependent on
us technology as we would like to
believe I mean again I go back to Huawei
there's a lot of Focus right now on deep
seek but huawe you know they have a a
very competitive um smartphone 5G
compatible AI compatible that is no
longer reliant on the Android operating
system they they rely on their own uh
internally developed operating system uh
and it's a you know lowcost very
powerful high-priced alternative uh to
um apple and uh uh Samsung and deep seek
you know again the US AI Community is
complaining and that's something that
we're you know America's always good at
in how we react to Chinese Innovation
we've complained constantly for years
they're complaining that the Deep seek
draws on uh the output of large language
models built in the US allegations by
the way that have not been verified but
um you know the the idea that a company
like open AI uh is complaining that a
truly open system like deep seek is
utilizing their output in and of itself
smash of extraordinary hypocrisy oh it
does yeah it's remarkable I mean um I
sued that open AI change its corporate
name to closed AI if they're want to be
so protective of their proprietary
search technology yeah that's a good
point Professor I I think what we've
certainly seen is that um necessity is
the mother of invention and we've
certainly seen China be able to do a lot
more with less uh again I mean I
wouldn't bet against China to develop
Tech I mean when you travel there you
certainly can see the advanced Society
they live in certainly on the cusping
edge of the greatest Technologies it's
it's always exciting to go back to China
<<<>>>What is the Future of Taiwan?
but I want to talk a little bit about
you know I think the Cornerstone of the
US China relationship with is which is
Taiwan of course very very important
part of this relationship and I I did
see an article uh from the straight
times that was quite remarkable it was
taiwan's president who said that taiwwan
and China need peace giving multifold
changes internationally and he would
like to seek uh dialogue instead of
Confrontation I think that was very
positive um development you know
certainly with with this give me your
thoughts on Taiwan and and really how
you know that piece is going to evolve
in the future of us China relations well
you know it's obviously of great
importance to the the Chinese Communist
leadership uh in a speech late last year
Xi Jinping laid out what he um called
his four red lines the sort of inviable
issues that concern him the most and the
top priority uh is Taiwan and that
certainly implies that that anyone who
threatens the independence of Taiwan uh
is crossing uh the biggest red line
there's a lot of uh reports recently
about new um military breakthroughs and
large uh defense bunkers being built in
Beijing to prepare for an evental War I
don't really put a lot of credence in
those reports as being considered
consistent with a war in the next few
years as we like to think is the case in
the United States but um you know Taiwan
is certainly uh an issue that needs to
be resolved one way or another hopefully
peacefully in you know the next 5 to 10
years there's been a lot of progress in
Cross Straits economic uh integration
and um you know there needs to be I
think a better way to manage the
geostrategic tensions between um not
just you know China and Taiwan but China
and the United States where we have
politicians who continue to uh throw
their support to um Taiwan Independence
and do so explicitly by making
semi-official visits like Nancy Pelosi
did several summers ago that really was
a major setback to the stability of the
the relationship yeah no absolutely I I
think the uh the Tai Taiwan issue
certainly the Cornerstone of us China
relations as well um but what are what
are some other key variables that are
going to be dictating the future of us
China relations I mean we've got the
trade War we've got Taiwan what what
other things are you looking at for in
<<<>>>What if the Future of US China Relations?
the future of this relationship well
look you know expand the gamut from
trade and Technology to Industrial
policy to subsidies of state-owned
Enterprises both in China and the United
States they touch on the broad Global
issues that uh were both critically
involved in such as Global Health
climate change cyber security uh and
obviously human rights and you know i'
I've argued uh that we need to establish
a a new bilateral Secretariat where both
uh Nations address these and many other
issues uh on a full-time basis 247
continually uh at a very expert
technocratic level uh so that when
situations come up that we're unprepared
for whether it's a spy balloon or a
naval accident in the Taiwan straight
that we have in place the experts and uh
the official support to troubleshoot uh
resolve and come to agreements on these
uh tough issues the current way of
<<<>>>Why America's Strategy with China is Flawed
Engagement Cyrus is we've outsourced it
to politically driven uh leaders and we
put far too much emphasis on leader to
leer diplomacy which is I think a um you
know it's important but you know we we
need an Institutional compliment to
leader to leer diplomacy to keep this
relationship moving ahead on a continual
basis relying on expertise rather than
on uh the personalized whims of
political leaders can you expand upon it
<<<>>>How to Fix the US China Relationship Forever!
that the Secretariat idea I I want I
really want people to understand that
you know I had the pleasure of hearing
you speak a couple weeks ago in San
Francisco we were both there attending
the future of us China relations
conference you gave the opening keynote
speech a fantastic one I think that was
a really key point in your speech was
talking about this Secretariat with this
would this be an individual would it be
a team would it be appointed from the
United States how do you envision that
really working to help facilitate this
this US general relationship it would be
a bilateral secretary be which would be
the first Secretariat organization
between two major nations in history it
would be staffed by an equal complement
of us and Chinese uh professional
scientists trade lawyers economists if
you want um experts on health uh legal
issues and all the other issues that I
spoke just spoke about uh to you it will
be located in a neutral venue uh could
be Switzerland could be Singapore it
would be uh far uh different than uh
existing secretariats which are at the
heart of many of our multinational or
multilateral organizations like the un
the oecd the World Trade Organization
the World Health Organization which are
largely set up for uh administrative
convenience this would be an
organization that is focused on
collaborative resolution of thorny
policies again spanning the gamut from
economics and trade all the way to
Global Health cyber security and uh
climate change with uh many other issues
in between they would be charged with
developing collaborative white papers
aimed at providing policies or new
agreements on these issues that would be
fed into the legislative process of both
governments and resolved uh through
negotiations uh conducted under the opes
of the Secretariat when disputes arise
as they inevitably do in any um complex
set of multilateral or excuse me
bilateral uh agreements there would be a
dispute screening function and dispute
resolution function uh that would avoid
conflict so it's a different approach
than we have right now to engagement and
I think we need a new approach to
engagement because the current approach
again heavily weighted uh in terms of
leader to leer diplomacy has not worked
look at the conflict that we are in
right now so we need a new piece a new
leg to the stool uh to build um I think
a a far more productive less
confrontational relationship between the
United States and China that's a Fant
fantastic Insight thank you for breaking
down that idea of the Secretariat you
know obviously not just an individual an
entire group um staffed by both us and
China neutral location and I like the
idea of shifting from something
different than what we're currently
doing um and and definitely maintaining
that that open line of communication 247
those those are some amazing takeaways
Professor roach I've so enjoyed our
conversation today I've got one final
question I'd like to ask all my guests
<<<>>>What Should the World Know About China?
you know what is what is one thing that
you want the world to know about China
what what do most people misunderstand
or if you had one thing that you could
tell everybody what would that be that
they have very human needs like the rest
of us we tend to vilify or put the
Chinese in a box as if they're an alien
population that um you know is is coming
from a very different place for us than
we are not that long ago they they were
an impoverished country in 1980 80% of
the population was rural they've come
dramatically a long way since then uh but they still
have a long way to go in raising their
standard of living to that of a more
developed society and they thirst for
Economic and Development and prosperity
uh the same way that that we do they
call it the Chinese dream just like we
call it uh the American dream and the
realization of the Chinese dream does
not necessarily have to mean uh that
that is a threat uh to the dream of
other nations including our own American
Dreams so I think we need to go back
to deepening our understanding of the
the needs and wants of the Chinese
people and recognizing they have a
different system uh that organizes their
government but that does not necessarily
change the very real needs that lie
behind that system that's a fantastic
answer I think so many times we forget
that you know in China there's uh
families and and husbands and and you
know wives and just normal people living
their life very very not much different
than what we're doing we're all trying
to advance in life and trying to you
know hopefully leave the world a better
place so uh Professor roach I I can't
thank you enough for your time today and
your insights were fantastic where can
<<<>>>Final Thoughts
we follow your work where's the best
place that our our fans and audience can
connect to see your work well you know
it changes sis but uh in the last year
or so I've been uh writing on a regular
basis at least once a week sometimes
twice a week on substack so search my
name under substack the name of the uh
the platform for me is called conflict
uh to um draw attention to uh the
conflict between the United States and
China and most importantly the need to
resolve that conflict before it is too
late yeah fantastic fantastic Professor
o thank you again for your time we're
going to put the links to your substack
down in the description so everybody can
follow along and everybody make sure you
drop some comments down below let us
know what you thought of today's
interview and what you think of the
future of us China relations everyone
thank you as always for your amazing
support and I'm so happy that I can
bring in worldclass guests like Professor Steven roach to help us all
understand more about China and its rolein the world.
