風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
Jeffrey Sachs 中國經濟 特朗普關稅 非洲援助
傑弗裏·薩克斯談中國經濟、美國特朗普關稅、非洲援助的文字記錄
2025 年 3 月 7 日，作者：Pangambam S
東方衛視的 Max Ren 采訪傑弗裏·薩克斯教授談中國經濟、美國特朗普關稅、非洲援助和東盟“選邊站”……[2025 年 3 月 6 日]
創造世界和平
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：今天我談論如何創造世界和平，因為我的觀點是，我們麵臨的所有衝突，無論是烏克蘭戰爭、中東衝突，還是美國和中國之間的緊張局勢，都可以理性和合作地解決。
任誌強：過去幾年，中國一直保持 GDP 5% 左右的增長。您如何看待中國經濟及其對世界經濟增長的貢獻？
薩克斯教授：中國不僅非常活躍，是世界大部分地區的主要貿易夥伴，而且在技術上也極具活力。這非常非常重要，無論是人工智能還是深度學習，當然我們都知道這一點，但中國目前在電動汽車領域遙遙領先。中國將成為新一代機器人的領導者，即將出現的類人機器人。中國是可再生能源技術的領導者。中國是第四代核電的領導者。
關鍵是，這些技術是世界各地實現綠色轉型、氣候安全和數字化轉型所需要的。所以在我看來，中國不僅扮演著世界主要經濟體的角色，而且還是技術領導者。
貿易戰的影響
MAX REN：您認為貿易戰、關稅戰會損害全球經濟增長嗎？會損害美國與加拿大、美國與墨西哥、特別是美國與中國的雙邊關係嗎？您如何預見這場貿易戰的影響？
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：我認為，不幸的是，特朗普信奉保護主義。我不信。我是一名經濟學家。我相信開放貿易、開放市場、互利互惠。我相信過去 40 年來中美貿易對中國和美國都大有裨益。但我確實認為特朗普是保護主義者，他很可能會繼續走這條路。
這對中國意味著什麽？這意味著世界其他國家，中國和世界其他國家，應該說，好吧，如果美國想成為保護主義者並孤立自己，那是一回事，但我們將繼續我們的開放貿易政策。所以我希望中國，當然還有金磚國家的其他國家，我希望歐盟，這一點非常重要，我知道世界上的新興市場和發展中國家都想說，如果美國是保護主義者，這並不會阻止我們其他國家保持開放、充滿活力的貿易和金融關係。這才是應該采取的方式。
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當然，我試圖說服美國放棄保護主義，因為我認為這對美國沒有好處，但對中國來說，與其痛苦地說，好吧，現在我們必須刺激消費或其他什麽，中國還可以擴大對世界其他地區的出口，擴大對世界其他地區的投資，讓中國的技術在東盟生產，或者在非洲、歐洲等地生產，我希望如此。
全球化的未來
MAX REN：聽起來你對美國經濟和世界經濟來說真是一大福音。你認為世界會走向全球化、保護主義、全球合作還是個人主義？你預見到了什麽？
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：我認為，從廣義上講，我們仍然處於一個全球互聯的世界，享受著全球化帶來的好處。美國已經有點喪失勇氣了。中國的崛起嚇壞了美國。現在他們搞保護主義了。這不是個好主意。我希望美國能夠更加自信地恢複正常的開放，走出去競爭，做生意，但不要搞保護主義。這是我的希望。但我相信世界上大多數國家都希望有一個開放的經濟和貿易體係，並開展合作。
我應該補充一點，我非常支持“一帶一路”倡議，因為“一帶一路”倡議將技術、貿易、就業、金融等結合起來，以擴大世界經濟。因此，我認為中國主導的“一帶一路”倡議對世界極為重要，而且對中國與世界其他國家建立牢固的經濟關係也大有裨益。
“一帶一路”倡議
MAX REN：說到“一帶一路”，您對未來四年“一帶一路”倡議是否樂觀？您認為……
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：我會說，去吧，擴大它。我的一個小建議是
對於較貧窮的國家，我希望中國提供長期貸款，因為如果貸款是短期的，那麽這些貧窮國家將無力償還。但如果貸款是長期的，中國將促進經濟增長，促進非洲和東南亞的快速增長。給予足夠的時間，那麽所有這些資金都將獲得豐厚的回報。
中國在非洲和中東的作用
MAX REN：從曆史上看，中國人一直充當絲綢之路上的和平締造者和商業商人。但一些媒體網絡聲稱中國對非洲和中東的某些國家構成了威脅。您是否認為中國公司正在這些大陸（非洲、中東）進行建設性改進，例如基礎設施建設、技術轉讓？
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：我不僅相信這一點，而且親眼目睹了這一點。我最近去了埃塞俄比亞，拜訪了農民，他們比以前賺得多。為什麽？中國幫助提供了電氣化，中國還提供了從亞的斯亞貝巴到吉布提的鐵路。現在這些農民正在種植經濟作物，賺了很多錢，因為那裏有基礎設施。這就是中國使之成為可能。所以我沒有看到任何威脅，隻有貿易和投資的好處。這是我親眼所見的親身經曆。
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MAX REN：這是消除非洲貧困的解決方案。
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：是的，因為中國在1980年到今天發展得如此之快。非洲可以實現非常非常快速的增長，但它需要投資、培訓和技能。但中國是實現這一目標的一種路線圖。所以我告訴我的非洲朋友和同行，看看中國取得的成就，你們也應該走同樣的路。
對中國經濟政策的建議
MAX REN：薩克斯教授，您是一位著名的經濟學家，在經濟政策方麵非常有名。您想給中國領導人什麽建議？他們需要做些什麽才能繼續改善經濟，為全球經濟做出貢獻？
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：中國正在采取一些很棒的舉措，不僅將自己視為一個非常有活力、成功的經濟體，而且還在幫助全世界實現這一目標。全球發展倡議、全球文明倡議、一帶一路倡議。所以我鼓勵中國繼續發揮這一作用，激勵全世界，與世界合作，與世界貿易，在世界投資，保持這種非常獨特、高度創新的經濟，並幫助引領全世界所需的生態轉型，因為中國也在為生態轉型建設技術。這非常重要。
給中國企業家的建議
任誌強：我有兩個問題。既然您提到了中國經濟，但中國有數百萬企業家、製造商、業主，對嗎？您想告訴他們什麽，建議他們做什麽，他們需要做些什麽來適應他們的業務？因為如果關稅戰繼續下去，很多工廠可能不得不將業務轉移到其他地方，或者不得不倒閉或破產。
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：我認為重點是不僅要關注美國市場，中國在很多技術領域都處於領先地位，而且成本效率高，競爭力強。非洲有市場，東盟有市場，中亞有市場，世界各地都有市場。所以，如果你受到美國的打擊，不要轉向其他方向。
東盟的未來
馬克斯·任：但既然你提到了，我很喜歡你對東盟、東南亞經濟區的評論。我想問你，它們在未來五到十年中的作用是什麽？它們有多重要？它們在美國和中國、太平洋地區之間是否比以往任何時候都更重要？
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傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：東盟國家，即東南亞十國，擁有 7 億人口，經濟非常活躍。東盟國家規模龐大，與中國關係密切，在交通、電力係統、數字電網、外商投資和供應鏈方麵與中國緊密結合。這是一種非常牢固的關係。我所從事的領域之一是試圖將粵港澳大灣區、香港、深圳、廣州和東盟國家聯係在一起，因為這非常適合經濟發展。
MAX REN：東盟國家是否必須選邊站？因為他們必須選邊站，你剛才提到，他們會選邊站嗎？他們會把東西方聯係在一起嗎？
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：這是一個非常重要的觀點。你知道，美國可能會迫使他們站隊，但如果他們團結起來，7 億人就可以說，不要逼我們站隊。我們是中國的朋友。我們想和美國做朋友。我們
不想選邊站。
上海在中國發展中的作用
MAX REN：最後一個問題。您想對上海發表一下看法嗎？因為我們在上海有很多聽眾，上海是全國性的大本營，但您想談談您對中國的看法嗎？上海是中國的城市榜樣，在過去的 40 年裏，上海一直熠熠生輝。
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：您知道，我來自紐約市，紐約和上海真的是孿生姐妹，因為我們都位於一條主要河流係統的盡頭，我們都是各自國家曆史上偉大的商業、金融和工業中心，所以我經常去上海，我很喜歡那裏。當然，上海是一個充滿活力、非凡的地方，在過去的 30 年裏，我親眼目睹了上海的非凡發展。
任誌強：您認為從上海、哈爾濱到泰國、馬來西亞、新加坡的鐵路網在不久的將來會實現嗎？
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：嗯，您知道，我坐過中國的高鐵。現在它已經達到 50,000 公裏了。在美國，我認為我們還沒有一公裏真正的高鐵，所以我認為中國擁有非凡的基礎設施，所以一切皆有可能。
任誌強：您的話說得很有道理。謝謝教授。感謝您抽出時間。
傑弗裏·薩克斯教授：謝謝。
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by Pangambam S
Max Ren of Dragon TV interviews Professor Jeffrey Sachs on China Economy, US Trump Tariffs, African Aid and ‘sides-picking’ for ASEAN… [March 6, 2025]
TRANSCRIPT:
Making Peace in the World
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Today I talk about how to make peace in the world because my view is that all of the conflicts that we have, whether it’s the Ukraine war, the conflict in the Middle East, or the tensions between the U.S. and China can be resolved rationally and cooperatively.
MAX REN: China has been maintaining GDP around 5% in the past few years. What do you oversee China’s economy and its contribution to the whole world economy growth?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: China is not only very dynamic, it’s the main trading partner of most of the world, but it’s also technologically extraordinarily dynamic. And this is very, very important, whether it’s AI and deep-seek, of course we all know about that in the world, but also China is now the leader, by far, of electric vehicles. China is going to be the leader of the new robotics generation, the humanoid robots that are coming. China is the leader of renewable energy technologies. China is the leader in fourth generation nuclear power.
The point is, these are the technologies that are needed all over the world for the green transformation, for climate safety, and for the digital transformation. So in my view, China is playing a role not only as a world major economy, of course, but also as a technological leader.
The Impact of Trade Wars
MAX REN: What do you foresee for going on trade war, right, tariff war, do you think that harms global growth, that harms bilateral relationship between U.S. to Canada, U.S. to Mexico, particularly U.S. to China? How do you foresee the effect of this trade war?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I think, unfortunately, Trump believes in protectionism. I don’t. I’m an economist. I believe in open trade, open markets, mutual gain. I believe that the U.S.-China trade over the last 40 years has been hugely beneficial, both for China and the United States. But I do believe that Trump is a protectionist, and he’s likely to pursue this course.
What does it mean for China? It means that the rest of the world, China and the rest of the world, should say, okay, if the U.S. wants to be protectionist and isolate itself, that’s one thing, but we are going to continue our open trade policy. So I’m hoping that China and, of course, the other countries of the BRICS, and I’m hoping the European Union, very important, and I know that the emerging markets and developing countries of the world all want to say, if the U.S. is protectionist, it doesn’t stop the rest of us from still having an open, dynamic trade and finance relationship. That’s how this should be approached.
Of course, I’m trying to talk the U.S. out of protectionism, because I don’t think it’s good for the U.S., but for China, rather than anguishing or saying, well, now we have to just boost consumption or something else, China can also expand exports to other regions of the world and also expand investments in other regions of the world for Chinese technologies to be producing in ASEAN or to be producing in companies in Africa, in Europe, I hope, and so on.
The Future of Globalization
MAX REN: Well, it sounds like you are such a blessing to American economy, to the world economy. Do you think that the world is going to track globalism or protectionism or global cooperation or individualism? What do you foresee?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I think that, broadly speaking, we’re still in a globally interconnected world with the benefits of globalization. The United States has lost its nerve a little bit. China’s rise has scared the U.S. Now they’re protectionist. Not a good idea. I hope that the United States returns to normal openness with more confidence and just, yes, go out and compete, make business, but don’t be protectionist. This is what I’m hoping. But I do believe that most of the world wants an open economy and trading system and cooperation.
I should add that I’m a very big fan of the Belt and Road Initiative, because the Belt and Road Initiative brings technology, trade, jobs, finance, all together to expand the world economy. And so I think what China is leading with the Belt and Road Initiative is extremely important for the world, but also excellent for China in building those strong economic relations with the rest of the world.
Belt and Road Initiative
MAX REN: Talking about Belt and Road Initiative, are you optimistic about Belt and Road Initiative for the next four years? What is your…
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I’d say go for it and expand it. My one little piece of advice is for the poorer countries, I hope China makes the loans longer term, because if the loans are short term, well, then these poor countries won’t be able to pay. But if they’re long term, what China’s going to do is promote economic growth, rapid growth in Africa, rapid growth in Southeast Asia. Give enough time, and then that’s going to be good returns on all of that finance.
China’s Role in Africa and the Middle East
MAX REN: Historically, the Chinese has been acting as peaceful peacemakers and business merchandisers across the Silk Road. But some media networks claim that China is playing a threat to certain countries in Africa and the Middle East. Do you think that Chinese companies are making constructive improvements, such as infrastructure constructions, right, technology transfer in those continents, Africa, Middle East?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Not only do I believe it, I see it on the ground with my own eyes. I was recently in Ethiopia, and I was visiting farmers that were making far more money than they were before. Why? China helped provide electrification, and China provided rail from Addis Ababa to Djibouti. Now these farmers are growing cash crops, making a lot of money, because the infrastructure is there. That’s what China made possible. So I haven’t seen any threats, only the benefits of trade and investment. This is my own experience with my own eyes.
MAX REN: That is the solution to end poverty in Africa.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: It is, because China grew so fast between 1980 and today. Africa can achieve very, very rapid growth, but it needs investment, training, skills. But China is a kind of roadmap for that. So I tell my African friends and counterparts, look at what China achieved, you should go the same route.
Advice for Chinese Economic Policy
MAX REN: Professor Sachs, you are a renowned economist, you are so famous in economy policies. What do you want to suggest Chinese leaders, what do they need to do to continue to make economy better, to contribute to global economy?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: China is making wonderful initiatives, seeing itself not only as a very dynamic, successful economy, but also as helping the whole world to achieve this. The Global Development Initiative, the Global Civilizations Initiative, the Belt and Road Initiative. So I encourage China to continue to play that role, inspiring the whole world, partnering with the world, trading with the world, investing in the world, and keeping this very distinctive, high innovation economy, and helping to lead also the ecological transformation that the whole world needs, because China is building the technologies for the ecological transformation as well. Very important.
Advice for Chinese Entrepreneurs
MAX REN: I have two questions. Since you mentioned about Chinese economy, but there are millions of Chinese entrepreneurs, manufacturers, owners, right? What do you want to tell them, suggest to them, what do they need to do to adapt their business? Because if the tariff war goes on, a lot of factories, they might have to shift their business here and there, or they might have to close down or bankrupt.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I think the main point is look not only for the U.S. market, but China is at the cutting edge of so many technologies, also is so cost-efficient, so competitive. There’s markets in Africa, there’s markets in ASEAN, there’s markets in Central Asia, all over the world. So don’t, if you’re being hit by the U.S., okay, change to another direction.
The Future of ASEAN
MAX REN: But since you mentioned, I really enjoy your comments about ASEAN, Southeast Asian economy zone. I want to ask you, what is their role in the next five, ten years? How important are they? Are they more important than ever between the U.S. and China, the Pacific region?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: The ASEAN countries, the ten countries in Southeast Asia, are 700 million people and a very dynamic economy. Big, close to China, integrated with China in transport, in power systems, in the digital grid, in foreign investment, in supply chains. That’s a very strong relationship. One of the areas that I’m working in is trying to bring, help bring the greater Bay Area, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, the greater Bay Area, together with the ASEAN countries, because that is such a great fit for economic development.
MAX REN: How difficult those ASEAN countries, do they have to take sides? Because they have to, you just mentioned, are they going to take sides? Are they going to align this west-east?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: This is a very important point. You know, the U.S. might press them to take a side, but if they stick together as 700 million, they can say, don’t push us to take a side. We’re friends with China. We want to be friends with the United States. We don’t want to choose sides.
Shanghai’s Role in China’s Development
MAX REN: Last, last question. Would you like to give a comment on Shanghai, since we have a lot of audience in Shanghai base, it’s national base, but what do you want to, what do you think about China, Shanghai, the city role model, they have been shining, Shanghai has been shining past 40 years.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: You know, I’m from New York City, and New York and Shanghai are really the twins, because we’re each at the end of a major river system, we’re each the great commercial, financial, industrial hub in the history of our respective countries, so I go to Shanghai often, and I love it. It’s, of course, a dynamic, remarkable, remarkable place, and I’ve seen before my own eyes in the last 30 years, the extraordinary development.
MAX REN: You think the inter-railroad from Shanghai, from Harbin, all the way to go through Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, is that, do you perceive this is going to achieve in the near future?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Well, you know, I ride China’s fast rail. It’s reached 50,000 kilometers now. In the United States, I don’t think we have one kilometer of real fast rail yet, so I think that China makes remarkable, remarkable infrastructure, so everything’s possible.
MAX REN: You have the word of wisdom. Thank you, Professor. Appreciate your time.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Thank you.
