你應該對中國有多害怕

你應該對中國有多害怕

https://quincyinst.org/2023/08/07/heres-how-scared-of-china-you-should-be/

史蒂芬·沃爾特  2023年8月7日

當前有關美國大戰略的爭論中的一個關鍵問題是美國應優先考慮與中國的競爭。 美國應該投入多少資源（金錢、人力、時間、注意力等）來解決這個問題？ 中國是美國所麵臨的最大的地緣政治挑戰，還是一個泥足巨人？ 對抗中國是否應該優先於所有其他問題（烏克蘭、氣候變化、移民、伊朗等），還是這隻是眾多問題中的一個，不一定是最重要的？

對於埃爾布裏奇·科爾比（Elbridge Colby）等一些觀察家來說，對抗中國是當務之急，美國領導人決不能讓自己因烏克蘭或任何其他外交政策問題而分心。 我偶爾的合著者約翰·米爾斯海默（John Mearsheimer）和我的哈佛大學同事格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）似乎同樣擔心中國的挑戰，特別是他們認為戰爭風險不斷上升。

外交關係委員會最近成立的一個特別工作組認為，亞洲的軍事趨勢正在向有利於中國的方向轉變，並呼籲加倍努力加強威懾，特別是在台灣海峽。 哈爾·布蘭茲（Hal Brands）和邁克爾·貝克利（Michael Beckley）認為，中國的實力已接近頂峰，北京幾乎無法阻止其最終衰落，但他們認為這一潛在的機會之窗值得警惕，而不是讓人放心。 相比之下，我的昆西研究所同事邁克爾·斯溫（Michael Swaine）和康奈爾大學學者傑西卡·陳·韋斯（Jessica Chen Weiss）認為我們誇大了中國構成的危險，並擔心兩國將陷入自我實現的猜疑螺旋，無論誰結束，都會讓雙方的處境變得更糟。 在上麵。

這些不同的評估隻是當今關於中國未來軌跡的觀點的一小部分。 我不知道誰是對的——你也不知道——但我坦白承認，其中一些觀察家對中國的了解比我多得多。 當然，我有自己的預感，但最讓我感到沮喪的是，嚴肅的中國觀察家群體還沒有達成更多共識。 因此，作為一項公共服務（也許是為了給他們一點啟發），以下是我對中國的五個主要問題。 這些問題的答案會告訴您很多關於您應該有多擔心的信息。

第一個問題：中國經濟的未來是光明的、黑暗的還是介於兩者之間？

國際政治的力量最終取決於經濟。 你可以隨心所欲地談論“軟實力”、個人領導人的天才、“民族性格”的重要性、機會的作用等等，但底線是一個國家保衛自己和塑造其國家的能力。 更廣闊的環境最終取決於其經濟實力。 一個大國需要大量的人口，但也需要大量的財富和多元化、成熟的經濟。 硬經濟實力使一個國家能夠製造大量先進武器並訓練一流的軍隊，提供其他國家想要購買並可以豐富本國公民生活的商品和服務，並產生可用於建設的盈餘。 在世界各地都有影響力。 被他人認可為有能力、在經濟上取得成功也是贏得他們尊重、讓他們聽取你的建議並增強一個人的政治模式吸引力的好方法。

Here's How Scared of China You Should Be

https://quincyinst.org/2023/08/07/heres-how-scared-of-china-you-should-be/

Stephen Walt  August 7, 2023

A critical issue in current debates on U.S. grand strategy is the priority the country should place on competing with China. How many resources (money, people, time, attention, etc.) should the United States devote to this problem? Is China the greatest geopolitical challenge the United States has ever faced, or a colossus with feet of clay? Should countering China take precedence over all other problems (Ukraine, climate change, migration, Iran, etc.), or is it just one issue among many and not necessarily the most important?

For some observers—such as Elbridge Colby—countering China is the highest priority, and U.S. leaders must not allow themselves to be distracted by Ukraine or any other foreign-policy issues. My occasional co-author John Mearsheimer and my Harvard colleague Graham Allison seem equally concerned about the China challenge, and especially by what they see as a rising risk of war.

A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force argued that military trends in Asia were shifting in China’s favor and called for redoubled efforts to reinforce deterrence, especially in the Taiwan Strait. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley think China’s power is nearing its peak and there’s little Beijing can do to arrest its eventual decline, but they see this potential window of opportunity as a cause for alarm rather than reassurance. By contrast, my Quincy Institute colleague Michael Swaine and Cornell University scholar Jessica Chen Weiss think we are exaggerating the danger China poses and worry that the two states will fall into a self-fulfilling spiral of suspicion that will leave both worse off no matter who ends up on top.

These varied assessments are but a small sample of the opinions you can find about China’s future trajectory these days. I don’t know who’s right—and neither do you—and I freely admit that some of these observers know a lot more about China than I do. I have my hunches, of course, but I’m mostly frustrated that the community of serious China watchers hasn’t achieved more of a consensus. As a public service, therefore (and maybe to inspire them a little), here are my top five big questions about China. The answers to these questions would tell you a lot about how worried you should be.

No. 1: Is China’s economic future bright, dark, or somewhere in between?

Power in international politics ultimately rests upon economics. You can talk all you want about “soft power,” the genius of individual leaders, the importance of “national character,” the role of chance, and much more, but the bottom line is that a country's ability to defend itself and shape its broader environment ultimately depends on its economic strength. You need a large population to be a great power, but you also need substantial wealth and a diverse and sophisticated economy.

Hard economic power is what enables a state to build lots of sophisticated weapons and train a first-class military, provide goods and services that others want to buy and that can enrich its own citizens’ lives, and generate surpluses that can be used to build influence around the world. Being recognized by others as competent and economically successful is also a good way to earn their respect, get them to listen to your advice, and enhance the appeal of one’s political model.