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美國大使談為何必須在保持“和平”的同時管理中國競爭
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-us-relationship-nicholas-burns-60-mines/?
作者：Lesley Stahl、Aliza Chasan，2024 年 2 月 25 日
中美之間的競爭和不信任動搖了商界的信心，並將兩國關係推至數十年來的最低點。
但美國駐華大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯 (Nicholas Burns) 在接受《60 分鍾》采訪時表示，放棄過去幾十年建立的深厚經濟聯係根本不是一種選擇。
伯恩斯說，與中國的關係是美國在世界上最重要、最具競爭性和最危險的關係，而且他相信這一點不會很快改變。
“有些人說，‘好吧，我們與中國的競爭如此激烈，我們應該結束經濟關係‘ 伯恩斯說。“好吧，這樣做的後果將是 75 萬個美國家庭將無法解決晚餐問題。”
這是因為這兩個經濟大國之間的聯係直接支持美國工人向中國發展、生產和出口商品和服務。
中美競爭
對於伯恩斯來說，駕馭美國在中國的利益競爭是一項艱難的平衡之舉。
他在北京接受采訪時表示：“我們在這裏存在相互競爭的利益，平衡這些利益是美中關係的現實。” “我們要競爭。我們必須負責任地競爭並維護我們國家之間的和平。但我們也必須參與。
中國和美國在人工智能、生物技術和量子數學領域展開激烈競爭。 伯恩斯說，這些領域的進步將帶來新一代軍事技術。
伯恩斯說：“我們兩軍正在爭奪軍事霸權，‘誰將成為世界上最重要的戰略地區印太地區的最強者’。”
習近平主席喜歡說，東方在崛起，西方在衰落，但在經濟上，與中國相比，美國正在蓬勃發展。 中國經濟正麵臨青年失業率高、增長緩慢和潛在的債務緊縮的問題。 去年12月，信用評級機構穆迪將中國的前景下調至負麵。
中國還麵臨著長期的人口限製。 一些專家稱出生率下降是不可逆轉的，這意味著該國人口正在老齡化和萎縮。
一月份，中國房地產巨頭恒大集團被勒令清算其剩餘資產。 中國各地的開發商已經耗盡了完成建設的資金，導致數百萬在公寓建成前已付款的中國公民陷入困境。
盡管經濟放緩，中國在許多市場都擊敗了美國。 憑借大量政府補貼，中國預計將取代日本成為全球最大的汽車出口國。 上季度，汽車製造商比亞迪超越特斯拉，成為全球最暢銷的電動汽車製造商。 該國還在風力渦輪機市場上占據主導地位。
伯恩斯說：“他們是世界上主要貿易夥伴，其國家數量是美國的兩倍，因此他們的影響力遍及全球。”
習近平主席在一年一度的新年致辭中談到了中國的經濟困境，並首次承認失業率居高不下。 盡管如此，他還是製定了到2035年使中國經濟翻一番並在技術上超越西方的長期目標。
中國的風險和回報
許多在中國經營的美國公司已經蓬勃發展。 迪士尼最近擴建了上海迪士尼樂園，而總部位於伊利諾伊州的阿普塔公司 (Aptar) 則投資了 6000 萬美元，在中國投資了 6000 萬美元建設新工廠。 Aptar亞洲區總裁龔向偉表示，即使在經濟放緩的情況下，該公司也表現良好。 她指出了醫療保健、化妝品和包裝食品領域的商機。
“我們是為了長期發展，我們相信不斷崛起的中產階級的消費能力，”龔說。 “這裏有14億人。”
沃爾瑪在中國擁有300多家門店。 購物者可以購買李維斯 (Levi's) 商品、瀏覽蘋果專賣店，並在中國約 6,000 家星巴克門店之一購買星冰樂。 波音、特斯拉、輝瑞、雪佛龍和英特爾都在中國開展業務。 美國金融公司在該國也擁有強大的業務。 中國政府表示，在中國有數以萬計的美國公司。
盡管如此，盡管這個擁有如此多潛在消費者的國家具有誘惑力，但其他公司和商界領袖仍持謹慎態度。 伯恩斯表示，40多年來，流出中國的資金首次超過來自美國、日本、歐洲和韓國投資者的資金。
這位大使指出，在習近平主席之前的幾十年裏，中國通過投資高鐵、公路、工廠和摩天大樓來推動經濟發展。 然而，根據北京的數據，去年中國的長期外國投資損失超過 1200 億美元。
嚴厲的政府策略已經導致
美國公司對未來充滿不確定性。
“我認為中國政府向世界其他地方傳遞的信息存在矛盾。一方麵，他們說，‘我們對商業開放。我們希望美國、日本企業在這裏開業，’”伯恩斯 說。 “但另一方麵，自去年三月以來，他們已經突擊搜查了六七家美國企業。”
明茨集團（Mintz Group）是一家為其他可能想在中國投資的公司進行盡職調查的公司，去年遭到突擊搜查。 其五名中國員工被拘留。 另一家公司 Capvision 也遭到突擊搜查。 官方電視台的一篇報道指責西方谘詢公司從事間諜活動並竊取國家安全和軍事機密。
“我認為他們想控製有關中國人民和中國公司的數據。我認為，這是在該領域運營的美國公司問題的核心，”伯恩斯說。
“我們兩國必須共同生活”
拜登總統和習近平主席去年 11 月在舊金山會麵，希望緩和緊張局勢，特別是南海周邊的緊張局勢。北京一直在南海建立軍事基地，增加在台灣附近的空中飛行次數，並在美國軍機周圍盤旋。
伯恩斯說：“我認為我們兩國之間的關係又回到了更加穩定的狀態，但這就像過山車一樣。”
兩國經濟聯係緊密。
根據美國貿易代表辦公室的數據，2022 年中國是美國出口產品的第三大買家。 它也是當年美國最大的商品供應國，占商品進口總額的16.5%。 中國也是美國農產品最大的出口市場，2022年出口額達409億美元。
“我們兩國必須共同生活。我認為，這是美中關係中最大的緊張局勢。中國是我們最重要的競爭對手，”伯恩斯說。 “與此同時，中國是我們的第三大貿易夥伴——75萬個美國就業崗位岌岌可危。”
中國政府沒有人願意接受《60分鍾》的采訪。
伯恩斯認為，從 20 世紀 40 年代到 1980 年代，中國是比蘇聯更強大的“對手”。 他還預計南海周圍的緊張局勢不會緩解。
伯恩斯說："我認為最終，他們希望成為並超越美國，成為全球主導國家。" "我們不希望這種情況發生。我們不想生活在一個中國人占主導地位的世界。”
U.S. ambassador on why China competition must be managed while keeping "the peace"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-us-relationship-nicholas-burns-60-minutes/?
By Lesley Stahl, Aliza Chasan,
Rivalry and mistrust between the U.S. and China have shaken the confidence of the business world and pushed the relationship between the two countries to its lowest point in decades.
But walking away from the deep economic ties that have been forged in the past decades is simply not an option, the U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, told "60 Minutes."
The relationship with China is the most important, most competitive and most dangerous the U.S. has in the world, Burns said – and he believes that's not changing anytime soon.
"Some people are saying, 'Well, we're so competitive with China, we should end the economic relationship,'" Burns said. "Well, the consequence of that would be 750,000 American families wouldn't be able to put dinner on the table."That's because ties between the two economic giants directly support American workers growing, producing and exporting goods and services to China.
U.S.-China competition
Navigating America's competing interests in China is a difficult balancing act for Burns.
"We have competing interests here, and balancing those interests is the reality in the U.S.-China relationship," he said during an interview in Beijing. "We're going to compete. We have to compete responsibly and keep the peace between our countries. But we also have to engage.
China and the U.S. are aggressively competing on artificial intelligence, biotechnology and quantum mathematics. Advances in those fields, Burns said, will lead to a new generation of military technology.
"Our two militaries are vying for military supremacy, 'Who's going to be the most powerful in the most important, strategic part of the world, which is the Indo-Pacific,'" Burns said.
President Xi Jinping likes to say that the East is rising and the West is declining, but economically, the U.S. is thriving compared to China. China's economy is facing high youth unemployment, slow growth and a potential debt crunch. In December, credit rating agency Moody's cut its outlook for China to negative.
China is also facing a long-term demographic bind. A decline in the birth rate, which some experts say is irreversible, means the country's population is both aging and shrinking.
And in January, Chinese real estate giant Evergrande was ordered to liquidate its remaining assets. Developers across China have run out of money to complete construction, leaving millions of Chinese citizens who had paid for apartments before they were built in the lurch.
Despite its slowing economy, China has the U.S. beat in many markets. China, with heavy government subsidies, is expected to overtake Japan as the world's biggest exporter of cars. Last quarter, the carmaker BYD surpassed Tesla as the best-selling EV maker in the world. The country also dominates in the wind turbine market.
"They're the leading trade partner of twice as many countries in the world as the United States, so they have global reach," Burns said.
In his annual New Year's speech, President Xi talked about the country's economic woes and, for the first time, acknowledged the high unemployment rate. Still, he has laid out a long-term goal of doubling China's economy by 2035 and surpassing the West in technology.
Risks and rewards in China
Many U.S. companies operating in China are already thriving. Disney recently expanded its Shanghai Disneyland and Aptar, a $9 billion company headquartered in Illinois, invested $60 million in a new factory in China. Aptar Asia President Xiangwei Gong said that even in a slowing economy, the company is doing well. She pointed to business opportunities in health care, cosmetics and packaged foods.
"We are here for the long-term and we believe in the consumption power of the rising middle class," Gong said. "It's 1.4 billion people here."
Walmart has more than 300 locations across China. Shoppers can buy Levi's, browse in Apple stores and get frappuccinos at one of around 6,000 Starbucks locations in China. Boeing, Tesla, Pfizer, Chevron and Intel all do work out of China. U.S. financial firms have strong operations in the country as well. The Chinese government says there are tens of thousands of U.S. companies in China.
Still, other companies and business leaders are wary, despite the lure of a country that's home to so many potential consumers. For the first time in more than 40 years, more money is leaving China than is coming in from American, Japanese, European and Korean investors, Burns said.
The ambassador pointed out that in the decades before President Xi, China powered its economy by investing in high-speed trains, roads, factories and skyscrapers. Yet in the last year, China lost more than $120 billion in long-term foreign investments, according to Beijing data.
Harsh government tactics have left American companies uncertain of the future.
"I think there's been a contradiction in the messaging from the government here in China to the rest of the world. On the one hand, they say, 'We're open for business. We want American, Japanese businesses here,'" Burns said. "But on the other hand, they've raided six or seven American businesses since last March."
The Mintz Group, a company that does due diligence for other companies that might want to invest in China, was raided last year. Five of its Chinese employees were taken into custody. Another firm, Capvision, was also raided. A report on state-run television accused Western consulting firms of espionage and stealing national security and military secrets.
"I think they want to control data about the Chinese people, about Chinese companies. That, I think, is at the heart of the problem with those American companies operating in that sphere," Burns said.
"Our two countries have to live together"
Presidents Biden and Xi met in San Francisco in November in the hopes of easing tensions, especially around the South China Sea, where Beijing has been building up military bases, increasing air sorties near Taiwan and buzzing around U.S. military planes.
"I think we're back to a more settled and stable relationship between the two countries, but it's been a rollercoaster," Burns said.
The two countries are deeply connected economically.
China was the third largest purchaser of U.S. exports in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. It was also the top supplier of goods to the U.S. that year, accounting for 16.5% of total goods imports. China is also the largest export market for U.S agricultural products, accounting for $40.9 billion in 2022.
"Our two countries have to live together. And this, I think, is the greatest tension in the U.S.-China relationship. China's our most significant competitor," Burns said. "And at the same time, China is our third largest trade partner — 750,000 American jobs at stake."
No one from the Chinese government would give "60 Minutes" an interview.
Burns views China as an "adversary" stronger than the Soviet Union was from the 1940s through the 1980s. He also doesn't foresee an easing of tensions around the South China Sea.
"I think ultimately, they want to become and overtake the United States as the dominant country globally," Burns said. "And we don't want that to happen. We don't want to live in a world where the Chinese are the dominant country."
