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中國經濟脈搏：中國廣闊腹地熱鬧非凡
專家：製造業不會大規模外包
GT本刊記者 2023 年 10 月 8 日
2023年8月11日，遊客參觀中國西南部重慶市的磁器口古鎮。照片：CFP
中國經濟正麵臨官方所說的“三重壓力”，但中國廣大的中西部地區經濟活動明顯加速。
剛剛結束的八天中秋國慶假期，消費爆發前十的城市中，中西部地區有八個。 根據周日發布的流行社交媒體和支付應用程序微信的數據，中國西南部的重慶市位居榜首，其次是四川省成都市。
成都接待遊客 2587 萬人次，同比增長 86.9%，比 2019 年增長 12.2%，旅遊總收入達 237.8 億元人民幣（合 33.1 億美元），比 2022 年增長 170.6%。
旅遊業並不是中西部地區唯一強勁複蘇的領域。 周日，滿載印尼起酥油、越南紅薯澱粉等110個集裝箱的班列從廣西壯族自治區欽州出發開往重慶，創下連接中國西部地區的西部陸海新通道的班列總數。 自2017年首列列車運營以來，已超過30,000人次。
據中央廣播電視總台周六的數據，2023年上半年，走廊沿線省級地區通過新走廊的出口總額達到3500億元人民幣，同比增長40%。
在經濟麵臨下行壓力的背景下，盡管東部沿海地區仍然是世界第二大經濟體的重要引擎，但中國欠發達的中西部地區的蓬勃發展引起了包括西方媒體在內的廣泛關注。
《華爾街日報》在周六發表的一篇文章中報道稱，盡管美國及其一些盟友正在尋求說服企業接受中國的替代方案，但企業仍然發現該國廣闊的內陸地區擁有“巨大優勢”。
報告稱，雖然墨西哥、印度和越南等許多國家正在爭奪中國的製造業“皇冠”，但工廠已大部分從中國沿海地區轉移到成本仍然具有競爭力的內陸地區。 結果，該地區出現了出口繁榮，中西部15個省份的出口較2018年猛增94%。截至8月份的12個月內，這些省份的出口總額達到6300億美元，遠遠超過印度、墨西哥 報告稱，還有越南。
中國經濟學家表示，這一趨勢是最新證據，表明中國製造業仍處於全球領先地位，而且盡管麵臨需求萎縮、供應衝擊和預期減弱的“三重壓力”，中國經濟仍具有顯著的韌性。
上海財經大學教授奚俊陽表示，這表明“國民經濟發展更加均衡、地區差距進一步縮小的趨勢”，有利於中國經濟長期可持續發展。 經濟學，周日告訴《環球時報》。
然而，對於中國經濟學家來說，中西部地區發生的事情並不令人意外，因為中國長期以來一直將國家戰略和政策措施重點放在發展內陸地區，作為追求平衡發展的一部分。
“[製造業向內陸轉移]的趨勢實際上在十年前就已經開始了，”作為中國向中西部地區轉移產業計劃的一部分，同時讓沿海地區專注於先進技術和創新，北京的田雲- 一位經濟學家周日告訴《環球時報》。
該規劃有序實施，勞動密集型產業向內地轉移，大量投資中西部地區基礎設施升級改造。
經濟學家表示，中西部地區的繁榮可能隻是一個開始，這些地區仍有巨大的發展潛力，進而為國家的長期增長提供巨大的推動力。
“中西部地區大部分地方人均GDP仍處於1萬美元以下，增長空間巨大。”田說，進一步加大基礎設施投資、改善營商環境至關重要。 對於中西部地區。
Pulse on China’s Economy: China’s vast hinterland sees bustling activity
Tourists visit Ciqikou ancient town in Southwest China's Chongqing Municipality on August 11, 2023. Photo: CFP
The Chinese economy is facing what officials call "triple pressures," but the country's vast central and western regions are seeing a marked acceleration in activity.During the just concluded eight-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, among the top 10 cities that saw explosive consumption, eight were in the central and western regions. Southwest China's Chongqing city topped the list, followed by Chengdu city, Sichuan Province, according to data from WeChat, a popular social media and payment app released on Sunday.
Chengdu received 25.87 million visitors, up 86.9 percent year-on-year and 12.2 percent higher than 2019 levels, which helped generate a total of 23.78 billion yuan ($3.31 billion) in tourism revenue, up 170.6 percent from 2022.
Tourism is hardly the sole area in which the central and western regions see robust recovery. On Sunday, as a train loaded with 110 containers of goods including Indonesian shortening and Vietnamese sweet potato starch departed from Qinzhou, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, for Chongqing, the total number of trains through the new western land-sea corridor connecting China's western region with Southeast Asia, has exceeded 30,000 since the first train operated in 2017.
In the first half of 2023, provincial-level regions along the corridor saw combined exports of 350 billion yuan via the new corridor, up 40 percent year-on-year, according to China Media Group on Saturday.
Against the backdrop of downward pressure for the economy, the booming activity in China's less-developed central and western regions has gained much attention, including from the Western media, even though eastern coastal regions remain the powerhouses of the world's second-largest economy.
In an article published on Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported that even as the US and some of its allies are seeking to persuade businesses to embrace alternatives to China, companies are still finding the country's vast interior holds "big advantages."
While many countries such as Mexico, India and Vietnam are vying for China's manufacturing "crown," factories have largely shifted from China's coastal regions to the interior, where costs remain competitive, according to the report. As a result, the region has seen an export boom, with exports from the 15 central and western provinces soaring 94 percent from 2018. In the 12 months through August, these provinces saw combined exports of $630 billion, vastly surpassing those of India, Mexico and Vietnam, the report said.
The trend is the latest evidence that China's manufacturing sector remains at the top worldwide and the Chinese economy is remarkably resilient despite the "triple pressures" - shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, Chinese economists said.
This shows "the trend for the national economy in which development will be increasingly balanced and gaps among regions will further diminish," which helps ensure long-term sustainable development for the Chinese economy, Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Yet, for Chinese economists, what's happening in the central and western regions comes as no surprise, as China has long been focused on developing the interior with national strategies and policy measures, as part of its pursuit of balanced development.
"The trend of [manufacturing capacity shifting inland] actually started a decade ago," as part of China's plan to transfer industries toward the central and western regions, while letting the coastal regions focus on advanced technologies and innovation, Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times on Sunday.
The plan has been carried out in an orderly way, with the relocation of labor-intensive industries to the interiror and massive investment in the upgrading of infrastructure in the central and western regions.
Still, the bustling activity in the central and western region may just be the beginning, as there is still enormous potential for the regions to further develop, which in turn offers a huge boost for the country's long-term growth, the economists said.
"The per capita GDP in most places in the central and western regions is still $10,000 or lower, so there is a huge room for the region's growth," Tian said, adding that further investment in infrastructure and improvement in the business environment will be crucial for the central and western regions.
