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尼日爾政變：非洲軍事接管是否在增加？
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46783600
作者：Peter Mwai BBC verify，內羅畢 2023 年 7 月 28 日 BBC verify
兩名男子在尼亞美國民議會外示威期間舉著支持尼日爾政變的標語牌尼日爾政變的支持者一直在首都尼亞美表達支持
獨立後的幾十年裏，軍事政變在非洲經常發生，人們擔心軍事政變開始變得更加頻繁。
尼日爾由總統衛隊士兵領導的接管隻是近年來發生的一係列政變中的最新一起。
2022 年布基納法索發生了兩次政變，幾內亞比紹、岡比亞以及島國聖多美和普林西比也發生了未遂政變。
2021年，非洲發生了六次政變，其中四次成功。
去年，非洲聯盟高級官員穆薩·法基·穆罕默德對“違憲更迭政府的死灰複燃”表示擔憂。
政變什麽時候才算政變？
使用的一個定義是軍方或其他文職官員非法和公然企圖推翻現任領導人。
兩名美國研究人員喬納森·鮑威爾 (Jonathan Powell) 和克萊頓·塞恩 (Clayton Thyne) 進行的一項研究發現，自 20 世紀 50 年代以來，非洲發生了 200 多次此類嚐試。 其中大約一半已經成功——持續了 7 天以上。
津巴布韋士兵圖片來源，蓋蒂圖片社 圖片說明，
2017年津巴布韋軍隊幹預穆加貝總統後舉行慶祝活動
有時，參與此類幹預的人否認這是一場政變。
2017 年，津巴布韋的軍事接管結束了羅伯特·穆加貝 37 年的統治。 但其中一位領導人西布西索·莫約少將當時出現在電視上，斷然否認這是軍事接管。
2021 年 4 月，乍得領導人伊德裏斯·代比去世後，軍隊任命他的兒子為臨時總統，領導過渡軍事委員會。 他的反對者稱其為“王朝政變”。
“政變領導人幾乎總是否認他們的行動是政變，試圖顯得合法，”喬納森·鮑威爾說。
非洲多久發生一次政變？
1960 年至 2000 年間，非洲政變企圖的總數始終保持在平均每年四次左右。
喬納森·鮑威爾表示，考慮到非洲國家獨立後幾年經曆的不穩定，這並不奇怪。
非洲政變的條形圖圖片來源，BBC SPORT
“非洲國家都有發生政變的常見條件，比如貧困和經濟表現不佳。當一個國家發生一次政變時，往往預示著更多政變的發生。”
2000 年之後，政變（和未遂政變）的數量明顯下降。
然而，盡管 2020 年（馬裏）僅報告發生了一起政變，但 2021 年的政變數量明顯高於平均水平。 以下都見證了政變或未遂政變：
乍得
馬裏
幾內亞
蘇丹
尼日爾
2022 年，進行了五次嚐試，但隻有布基納法索的兩次成功。
Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno 圖片來源，路透社 圖片說明，
穆罕默德·伊德裏斯·代比·伊特諾於 2021 年 4 月接替父親成為乍得領導人
誇祖魯-納塔爾大學的恩杜布伊西·克裏斯蒂安·阿尼表示，反對長期獨裁者的民眾起義為非洲政變卷土重來提供了機會。
“雖然民眾起義是合法且由人民領導的，但成功往往取決於軍方的決定，”他說。
哪些國家政變次數最多？
蘇丹發生的政變和企圖接管事件最多，達到 16 起，其中 6 起成功。
2019 年，長期執政的領導人奧馬爾·巴希爾在經曆了數月的抗議後被趕下台。 1989年，巴希爾本人通過軍事政變上台。
西非的布基納法索是政變最成功的國家，有九次接管和一次失敗的政變。
尼日利亞在獨立後因軍事政變而聞名，從 1966 年 1 月到 1993 年薩尼·阿巴查 (Sani Abacha) 將軍接管期間發生了 8 起軍事政變。然而，自 1999 年以來，這個非洲人口最多的國家的權力交接一直通過民主選舉進行。
地圖顯示政變最多的非洲國家
布隆迪曆史上曾發生過十一次不同的政變，這些政變主要是由胡圖族和圖西族社區之間的緊張關係造成的。
塞拉利昂在1967年至1968年期間經曆了3次政變，1971年又經曆了一次政變。1992年至1997年期間，又經曆了五次政變企圖。
加納也發生過軍事政變，二十年來發生了八次。 第一次是在 1966 年，誇梅·恩克魯瑪 (Kwame Nkrumah) 被趕下台，次年，下級軍官的嚐試失敗了。
2021 年，聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯表示“軍事政變卷土重來”，並補充說“地緣政治分歧正在破壞國際合作……有罪不罰的感覺正在蔓延”。
總體而言，非洲經曆的政變比任何其他大陸都多。 2017 年以來全球記錄的 17 起政變中，除了 2021 年緬甸發生的一場政變外，所有政變都發生在非洲。
Niger coup: Are military takeovers on the rise in Africa?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46783600
By Peter Mwai BBC Verify, Nairobi BBC Verify
Supporters of the coup in Niger have been expressing their support in the capital Niamey
The takeover in Niger, led by soldiers belonging to the presidential guard, is just the latest in a string of coups that have taken place in recent years.
There were two in Burkina Faso in 2022 as well as failed coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, The Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe.
In 2021, there were six coup attempts in Africa, four of them successful.
Last year, a senior African Union official, Moussa Faki Mahamat, expressed concern about "the resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government".
When is a coup a coup?
One definition used is that of an illegal and overt attempt by the military - or by other civilian officials - to unseat sitting leaders.
A study by two US researchers, Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, has identified over 200 such attempts in Africa since the 1950s. About half of these have been successful - that is lasting more than seven days.
IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES Image caption,
Sometimes, those taking part in such an intervention deny it's a coup.
In 2017 in Zimbabwe, a military takeover brought Robert Mugabe's 37-year rule to and end. But one of the leaders, Maj Gen Sibusiso Moyo, appeared on television at the time, flatly denying it was a military takeover.
In April 2021 after the death of the Chadian leader, Idriss Déby, the army installed his son as interim president, leading a transitional military council. His opponents called it a "dynastic coup".
"Coup leaders almost invariably deny their action was a coup in an effort to appear legitimate," says Jonathan Powell.
How often are there coups in Africa?
The overall number of coup attempts in Africa remained remarkably consistent at an average of around four a year between 1960 and 2000.
Jonathan Powell says this is not surprising, given the instability African countries experienced in the years after independence.
IMAGE SOURCE,BBC SPORT
"African countries have had conditions common for coups, like poverty and poor economic performance. When a country has one coup, that's often a harbinger of more coups."
There was a noticeable decline in the numbers of coups (and attempted coups) after 2000.
However, although there was only one coup reported in 2020 (in Mali), in 2021 there was a noticeably higher than average number. The following all saw coups or attempted coups:
- Chad
- Mali
- Guinea
- Sudan
- Niger
In 2022, there were five attempts, but only two - in Burkina Faso - succeeded.
IMAGE SOURCE,REUTERS Image caption,
Ndubuisi Christian Ani from the University of KwaZulu-Natal says popular uprisings against long-serving dictators have provided an opportunity for the return of coups in Africa.
"While popular uprisings are legitimate and people-led, success is often determined by the decisions taken by the military," he says.
Which countries had the most coups?
Sudan has had the most coups and attempted takeovers amounting to 16 - six of them successful.
In 2019, long-serving leader Omar al-Bashir was removed from power following months of protests. Bashir himself took over in a military coup in 1989.
Burkina Faso in West Africa, has had the most successful coups, with nine takeovers and one failed coup.
Nigeria had a reputation for military coups following independence with eight between January 1966 and the takeover by Gen Sani Abacha in 1993. However, since 1999 transfers of power in Africa's most populous nation have been by democratic election.
Burundi's history has been marked by eleven separate coups, mostly driven by the tensions between the Hutu and Tutsi communities.
Sierra Leone experienced three coups between 1967 and 1968, and another one in 1971. Between 1992 and 1997, it experienced five further coup attempts.
Ghana has also had its share of military coups, with eight in two decades. The first was in 1966, when Kwame Nkrumah was removed from power, and in the following year there was an unsuccessful attempt by junior army officers.
In 2021, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that "military coups are back," adding that "geo-political divisions are undermining international co-operation and... a sense of impunity is taking hold," he said.
Overall, Africa has experienced more coups than any other continent. Of the 17 coups recorded globally since 2017, all but one - Myanmar in 2021 - have been in Africa.
