全球世紀中的美國領導力

全球世紀中的美國領導力

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/american-leadership-in-a-global- century/

卡洛斯·帕斯誇爾 2009 年 6 月 12 日 @CarlosEPascual

卡洛斯·帕斯誇爾（Carlos Pascual，生於 1959 年）是一位古巴裔美國外交官，曾分別在巴拉克·奧巴馬 (Barack Obama) 總統和比爾·克林頓 (Bill Clinton) 總統領導下擔任美國駐墨西哥和烏克蘭大使。他於 1983 年至 1995 年在美國國際開發署任職，並於 1995 年至 2000 年在白宮國家安全委員會任職，最終擔任俄羅斯、烏克蘭和歐亞大陸事務高級主任。 他曾擔任美國國務院對歐洲和歐亞大陸的援助協調員，隨後於 2003 年至 2005 年擔任重建與穩定協調員。後來，他在布魯金斯學會任職, 並被任命為美國國務院國際能源事務特使兼協調員。 2011年至2014年國務院能源局。

S&P Global Commodity Insights 全球能源高級副總裁

美國國防政策 美國外交政策

卡洛斯·帕斯誇爾在萊文沃斯堡指揮與參謀學院發表畢業典禮致辭。 帕斯誇爾向畢業生提出挑戰，要求他們將美國領導力的觀點運用到全球化世界中。
考德威爾中將，感謝您今天邀請我來到這裏，感謝您的領導以及您的熱情介紹。 我還要向阿特中將、約翰卓軍士長、卡登準將表示感謝，最重要的是向指揮與參謀學院的家屬和畢業生表示感謝。
感謝你們允許我今天加入你們的行列，向來自美國和國外的 960 名畢業生致敬。
我想來這裏是因為我相信這是一個致力於建設和平的機構。 當然，你們的根本使命是保護我們的國家：實際上是保護你們所有人所來自的 60 多個國家，但在我們生活的世界中，保護我們的國家利益離不開參與我們的國際社會。
七十年前，溫斯頓·丘吉爾這樣告誡美國：
“一個人如果不參與文明世界的問題，不被其痛苦所震撼，不被其原因所鼓舞，就無法在許多方麵成為文明世界的領導群體。 如果這一點在過去得到了證明，就像現在一樣，那麽它將在未來變得無可爭議。 美國人民無法逃避世界責任。”
如果七十年前確實如此，那麽今天更是如此。 讓我給你們讀一下巴拉克·奧巴馬 (Barack Obama) 的《無畏的希望》(Audacity of Hope)——這本書是在他的總統抱負仍是一個遙遠的願景時寫成的。
“當杜魯門、艾奇遜、凱南和馬歇爾坐下來設計二戰後秩序的架構時，他們的參考框架是主導十九世紀和二十世紀初的大國之間的競爭……美國最大的威脅 來自納粹德國或蘇維埃俄羅斯等擴張主義國家……那個世界已不複存在。
“[今天]日益增長的威脅......主要來自世界經濟邊緣的那些國際“道路規則”尚未確立的地區......絕大多數人口貧困的土地， 沒有受過教育，與全球信息網絡隔絕； 統治者擔心全球化會放鬆他們對權力的控製……正是這種日益將世界聯係在一起的相互聯係，賦予了那些想要摧毀這個世界的人的力量。”
我提出這些觀點並不是為了引起對全球化的恐懼，而是為了灌輸對全球化力量的尊重，對如何參與全球化的理解，以及對我們在塑造全球化過程中單獨行動的能力的局限性的謙遜感。
我們生活在一個資本、技術、思想和人員無國界的世界。 正是這種超越國界、利用世界能力和進入世界市場的能力，使中國和印度數億人擺脫了貧困。 它在美國創造了前所未有的財富。 它甚至為全球推進和平的能力做出了貢獻。 許多人忘記了這樣一個現實：自冷戰結束以來，通過聯合國等機構的合作已將國家內部衝突的數量減少了一半。
但當我們無法治理全球化時，全球化就有它的陰暗麵，而在這方麵，無論是作為一個國家還是作為一個全球社會，我們還沒有取得成功。 因此，我們有：
• 美國的住房危機演變成金融危機，然後是全球衰退，美國失業率超過 9%，中國有 2000 萬人流離失所，一些地方的最貧困人口被推向生存邊緣 比如馬裏、乍得或秘魯的山脈。
• 工業革命為數十億人帶來了汽車、電視和冰箱，但它也鞏固了化石燃料的使用模式，導致大氣中碳濃度升高，威脅到我們所知的生命。
• 在這個世界上，核技術已經為無碳未來的電力生產創造了能力，但這種技術不受控製的擴散已使朝鮮和伊朗等國家對世界和平與穩定構成威脅。
在這個超越國界的世界裏，沒有一個國家能夠獨善其身，也沒有一個國家能夠獨善其身。
這就是為什麽奧巴馬總統說美國安全與全球安全密不可分。 我們的未來是緊密相連的。
但我們的挑戰，你們的挑戰，是了解如何在我們的全球環境中運用這些觀點。 讓我向您提出幾點看法：
首先，國際挑戰的規模比我們所知道的任何挑戰都要大：

我們今天麵臨危機。 你很了解它們——在某些情況下太了解了：阿富汗/巴基斯坦、伊拉克、伊朗、朝鮮、中東；
全球穩定麵臨的地緣政治挑戰：有效管理中國和印度的崛起； 咄咄逼人、自信的俄羅斯； 在整個拉丁美洲，美國有時成為次要參與者； 和
生存或全球挑戰：金融危機、氣候變化、恐怖主義、核擴散以及國家內部和國家之間的衝突。
這個議程上的哪些內容我們可以推遲？ 我們可以把什麽放在一邊？ 很少。 因此，對於我們國家和我們每個人來說，這是一個重要的教訓：這個世界的領導力意味著與其他國家建立夥伴關係，為了一個和平與繁榮的世界分擔這一負擔。 它需要樹立對我們國家的尊重 — — 這意味著我們在遵守法治方麵樹立光輝榜樣 — — 以便我們能夠利用這些夥伴關係和關係來成功推進我們的國家利益。 如果這對美國來說是這樣，那麽對今天在座的每個國家來說也是如此。

這些並不是理想主義的幻想。 如今，發展和維持有效夥伴關係以及獲得世界尊重的能力已成為美國的新現實主義。

我也將這一觀察留給你們。 我們麵臨的問題是相互關聯的——它們的相互作用決定了我們的未來——但與此同時，除非我們了解定義我們現實的相互關聯的力量，否則我們無法找到解決方案。

經濟危機不僅導致就業崗位減少，還影響每個國家對碳定價的能力，這一措施被視為鼓勵保護和創新的關鍵措施，從而阻止環境變化，而環境變化至今仍是洪水、幹旱的原因之一。 、疾病和遷移。

氣候變化正在加劇對稀缺資源（尤其是土地和水）的競爭，這可能會引發未來的衝突。 我們確信的一件事是，如果不解決土地和水的根本稀缺問題，就無法永久解決達爾富爾等地區的衝突。

對於那些想知道為什麽我們應該關心遙遠衝突的人來說，讓我們不要忘記，我們在美國領土上發生的最嚴重的衝突是由世界上最貧窮的國家之一——阿富汗精心策劃的。

我們從中學到什麽？

如果我們想了解未來的威脅可能出現在哪裏，我們就不要根據眼前的靜態現實來評估世界，而應該尋求衡量全球力量的相互作用的影響。

當我們為未來做準備並尋找當今問題的解決方案時，我們必須了解當今威脅的軍事層麵如何與推動安全環境的其他社會、經濟、文化和宗教因素相互交叉。 但我也警告這一點：我們的軍隊不是要解決所有這些問題，而是要成為我們文職當局投資和建設這些能力的良心和驅動力。

作為檢驗我們是否朝著正確方向前進的基本檢驗——檢驗我們是否對自己誠實——關注當地的現實。 例如，詢問如何才能在阿富汗南部的社區實現安全和繁榮，然後詢問什麽才能使其可持續——在這裏我懷疑您會發現以下現實：

如果不培養當地同行的能力——無論他們是軍隊、警察、政府官員還是企業家，我們就無法保持成功。
建設這種能力意味著我們的人民對他們的人民進行投資——這就是為什麽我們派遣 4,000 名士兵來訓練和指導阿富汗警察和軍隊
但我知道你們會對我們國家政府民間投資的能力感到非常失望，也許已經感到非常失望 — — 不是因為沒有意願，而是因為我們沒有人民。 看看這個鮮明的對比：我們向阿富汗派遣的 4,000 名軍事訓練員占全球 6,500 名外交官的三分之二。
作為一個國家，我們已經開始做出一些重大改變。 奧巴馬總統要求將 2010 財年外交預算增加 11%。 這是一個謙虛的開始。 為了實現這一目標並繼續增強這種能力，需要與國家安全息息相關的人們以及來自美國腹地的人們的支持。

在我們心裏，我相信我們必須謙虛，但不能黯淡。 我們有一個獨特的時刻。

我走遍了世界——我沒有在任何地方看到過對美國領導地位的拒絕。 相反，人們渴望改變基於夥伴關係和共享投資的領導風格。 這符合我們的利益。

在美國，一次又一次的民意調查顯示，美國人民希望建立國際夥伴關係與合作。 直覺上，我們作為一個國家理解與他人合作、分擔非常時期負擔的智慧。

實現可持續夥伴關係的核心手段是遵守法治。 這發揮了我們的優勢，而不是我們的弱點，這使我們在國內變得強大，我們也應該在國際上對此表示歡迎。

是的，我們會遇到問題——全球環境也意味著全球競爭。 有些人意圖傷害我們和世界各地的好人。 我們在倫敦、馬德裏、孟買以及巴基斯坦和整個中東的許多城市看到了悲慘的恐怖行為。

但我們不能阻止我們改變對這個跨國世界的看法、實現我們的能力現代化以及建設我們共同行動的能力。 我們的優勢在於我們的員工——我們的創造力、誠實、正直、對努力工作的承諾，以及我們共同參與這些全球努力的道德信念——為了我們的家庭和我們的子孫後代。 我們的希望寄托在像您這樣的人身上，這是信心的源泉。

指揮參謀學院 09-1 班，恭喜。 祝您和您的家人一切順利。 我們的國家以及今天在座的每個國家都對你們表示感謝。

American Leadership in a Global Century

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/american-leadership-in-a-global-century/ 

Carlos Pascual  June 12, 2009  @CarlosEPascual

Carlos Pascual (born 1959) is a Cuban-American diplomat and the former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico and Ukraine under President Barack Obama and Bill Clinton respectively.^[1] He served at the U.S. Agency for international Development from 1983 to 1995, and at the White House National Security Council from 1995 to 2000, ultimately as senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia.^[2] He was the State Department Coordinator for U.S. Assistance to Europe and Eurasia, and subsequently the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization from 2003 to 2005. Later he served at the Brookings institution^[3] and was appointed Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs at the State Department's Bureau of Energy from 2011 to 2014.^[4]

He currently serves as senior vice president at S&P Global.

U.S. Defense Policy  U.S. Foreign Policy

Carlos Pascual delivered the commencement address at Fort Leavenworth Command and General Staff College. Pascual challenged graduates to make operational the perspectives of American leadership in a globalized world.

Lieutenant General Caldwell, thank you for inviting me here today, for your leadership, and for your kind introduction. Let me extend my thanks as well to Lieutenant General Arter, Command Sergeant Major Johndrow, Brigadier General Cardon, and most importantly to the families and graduates of the Command and General Staff College.

Thank you for allowing me to join you today and to pay tribute to this graduating class – all 960 of you – from the United States and abroad.

I wanted to come here because I believe this is an institution dedicated to building peace. Of course your fundamental mission is to protect our nation: indeed to protect the more than 60 nations from which all of you hail, but we live in a world where protecting our national interests cannot be separated from engaging in our global community.

Seven decades ago, Winston Churchill exhorted the United States this way:

“One cannot rise to be in many ways the leading community in the civilized world without being involved in its problems, without being convulsed by its agonies and inspired by its causes. If this has been proved in the past, as it has been, it will become indisputable in the future. The people of the United States cannot escape world responsibility.”

And if that was true seven decades ago, it is even truer today. Let me read to you from Barack Obama’s Audacity of Hope – written when his presidential aspirations were still a distant vision.

“When Truman , Acheson, Kennan, and Marshall sat down to design the architecture of the post-World War II order, their frame of reference was the competition between the great powers that had dominated the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries….America’s greatest threats came from expansionist states like Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia….That world no longer exists.

“[Today] the growing threat…comes primarily from those parts of the world on the margins of the global economy where the international “rules of the road” have not taken hold ….lands in which an overwhelming majority of the population is poor, uneducated, and cut off from the global information grid; places where the rulers fear globalization will loosen their hold on power….The very interconnectivity that increasingly binds the world together has empowered those who would tear that world down.”

I raise these perspectives not to engender a fear of globalization, but to instill a respect for its power, an understanding of how to engage it, and a sense of humility about the limits of our capacity to act alone in shaping it.

We live in a world where capital, technology, ideas and people know no boundaries. It is this very capacity to transcend borders, to tap world capabilities, and to have access to world markets that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty in China and India. It has created unprecedented wealth here in the United States. It has even contributed to a global capacity to advance peace. Forgotten by many is this reality: that cooperation through bodies like the United Nations has cut in half the number of conflicts within states since the end of the Cold War.

But globalization has its dark side when we fail to govern it, and here we have yet to succeed – as a nation, or as a global community. Hence, we have:

• A world where a housing crisis in the U.S. turned into a financial crisis and then a global recession with unemployment over 9 percent in the U.S., with 20 million displaced in China, with the poorest of the poor pushed to the margins of survival in places like Mali, Chad, or the mountains of Peru.
• A world where the industrial revolution has brought cars, televisions and refrigerators to billions, but it has entrenched a pattern of fossil fuel use that is causing carbon concentrations in our atmosphere that threatens life as we know it.
• A world where nuclear technology has created capacity for a carbon-free future in producing electricity, but the uncontrolled proliferation of this technology has made countries, such as North Korea and Iran a menace to world peace and stability.

In this world that transcends borders, no one nation can succeed along, yet no nation can isolate itself from global problems.

This is why President Obama says American security is inseparable from global security. Our futures are intertwined.

But our challenge, your challenge, is to understand how to make operational these perspectives on our global environment. Let me leave you with a few observations:

First, the scale of international challenges is greater than any we have ever known:

• We face today crises. You know them well – in some cases too well: Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East;
• Geopolitical challenges to global stability: managing productively the rise of China and India; an aggressively assertive Russia; and throughout Latin America, a dynamic of change where the United States has become at times a secondary player; and
• Existential or global challenges: the financial crisis, climate change, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and conflict within and between states.

What on this agenda can we put off? What can we place aside? Very little. Thus, an important lesson for our country and for everyone one of us: leadership in this world means to build partnerships with other nations to share this burden for the sake of a peaceful and prosperous world. It requires building respect for our nation – and that means setting a shining example in our adherence to the rule of law – so that we can leverage these partnerships and relationships to succeed in advancing our national interests. If this is true for the United States, it is equally true for every nation represented here today.

These are not idealistic fantasies. Today, the ability to develop and sustain effective partnerships and the respect of the world has become the new American realism.

I leave you with this observation as well. The problems that we face are interconnected – their interaction defines our future – but at the same time we cannot find solutions unless we understand the interlinked forces that are defining our reality.

The economic crisis is not only shedding jobs, it affects the capacity of every nation to put a price on carbon, a measure seen as critical to encouraging conservation and innovation, and thus deterring the environmental changes that even now are a cause of floods, draughts, disease and migration.

Climate change is exacerbating competition for scarce resources – especially land and water – that could drive future conflicts. One thing we know for sure is that without addressing the underlying scarcities of land and water there are no permanent solutions to conflict in places like Darfur.

And for those who wonder why we should care about distant conflict, let us not forget that the most significant strife we have ever had on American territory was orchestrated from one of the poorest countries in the world – Afghanistan.

What do we learn from this?

Let’s not assess the world based on the static realities before us – but seek instead to gauge the interactive effects of global forces if we are to understand where future threats may emerge.

As we prepare for the future and search for solutions to today’s problems, we must understand how the military dimensions of today’s threats intersect with the other social, economic, cultural and religious factors driving the security environment. But I also caution this: it is not for our militaries to solve all of these problems, but to be a conscience and driver to our civilian authorities to invest and build these capabilities.

As a basic test of whether we are headed in the right direction – to test whether we are honest with ourselves – focus on local realities. Ask what it will take to deliver security and prosperity in a community in Southern Afghanistan, for example, and then ask what will make it sustainable – and here I suspect you’ll find these realities:

• We can’t sustain success without building the capacity of local counterparts – whether they be military, police, government officials, entrepreneurs.
• Building that capacity means an investment of our people in their people – that is why we are sending 4,000 troops to train and mentor Afghan police and military
• But I know you will be sorely disappointed, and perhaps have already been, in our nation’s capacity to invest from the civilian side of our government – not because the will is not there, but because we don’t have the people. Look at this stark contrast: the 4,000 military trainers we are sending to Afghanistan constitute two-thirds of 6,500 foreign service officers across the world.

As a nation, we have begun to make some critical changes. President Obama requested an 11 percent increase in his FY 2010 Foreign Affairs budget. It is a modest beginning. It will take the support of those of you with a stake in the nation’s security, and from America’s heartland, to achieve this and to continue to grow this capacity.

In our hearts, I believe we must be humble, but not bleak. We have a unique moment.

I have traveled the world – nowhere have I seen a rejection of American leadership. Instead, there is a thirst for a change in the style of leadership based on partnerships and shared investments. That is in our interest.

In the United States, poll after poll shows that the American people want international partnerships and cooperation. Intuitively, we as a nation understand the wisdom of working with others and sharing the burden of extraordinary times.

A core means to achieving sustainable partnerships is adherence to the rule of law. That plays to our strength – not our weakness – it is what makes us strong at home and we should welcome this internationally as well.

Yes, we will encounter problems – a global environment also means global competition. There are those who mean to hurt us and good people throughout the world. We have seen tragic acts of terror in London, Madrid, Mumbai and many cities in Pakistan and throughout the Middle East.

But we cannot be deterred in transforming our perspectives on this transnational world, modernizing our capabilities, and building our capacity to act together. Our strength is in our people – our creativity, honesty, decency, commitment to hard work, and a moral belief that we are in these global endeavors together – for the sake of our families and the generations that come behind us. Our hope is in people like you, and that is a source of confidence.

Command and Staff College Class of 09-1, congratulations. Good speed to you, and to your families. You have the gratitude of our nation, and every nation represented here today.