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Inflation cooled to 5% in March, but consumer pain is set to linger
Experts say that even as price growth slows, it won’t reverse outright, which is likely to be of little solace to consumers right now.
Consumer prices climbed 5% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, down from 6% in February.
The latest inflation reading represents the ninth-straight month of easing price growth on an annual basis, and is down from a 9% high last June. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.1% — the lowest reading since last July.
But it's still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Among the key categories still seeing outsized price growth are food, which climbed 8.5% from March 2022 to March 2023, and rent, which hit 8.3% growth, its largest-ever 12-month increase.
As a result, cooling inflation won't prove much solace to consumers, who can still expect to feel the pinch in their pocketbooks for a while longer.
Because inflation numbers are closely tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions about how high interest rates should be, a majority of investors are betting the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% again at its next meeting May 3.
Analysts say some of the key drivers of the post-pandemic spike in inflation, like supply chain issues and the elevated food and energy prices spurred in part by the war in Ukraine, are abating. But the flames of inflation are nevertheless being fanned by a still-hot job market, which has added 1 million positions in 2023.
It's an unfortunate trade-off: Workers who feel secure about their jobs are comfortable spending, which creates demand in the economy that can drive price surges.
By raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve hopes to make investing, borrowing and ultimately hiring more costly for businesses.
"There's an imbalance in demand and supply," said Greg McBride, Bankrate's senior vice president and chief financial analyst. "Now, that imbalance still stems from an outsized level of demand. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, and spending is quite strong, and it’s that demand that the Fed is aiming to address by raising interest rates."
In a recent note to clients, Seema Shah, the chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management, said U.S. inflation is expected to decelerate further through this year, "but only very slowly."
"Slower economic activity and a looser labor market" — most likely meaning an unemployment rate higher than the current 3.5% — "will be necessary to fade these pressures," Shah said.
Cost of food and shelter remain stubbornly high
Food and rent are among the categories that continue to have the largest price increases. In February, food prices climbed about 10%, continuing a run of double-digit 12-month increases that stretch back to May.
The same month, rents had their largest one-month increase on record, climbing 8.2%. Rent data is considered a "lagging" indicator, meaning surveys are slower to capture real-time changes because most leases are at least 12 months long. Other data from Realtor.com shows rent growth peaked sometime around winter 2021-22.
Indeed, prices are cooling substantially in other areas of the economy. While gas prices have climbed more than 13 cents over the past month, to $3.61 a gallon, they are still below the $4 levels of a year ago.
Wage growth is slowing
Meanwhile, wage growth has begun to show significant declines after it experienced bumps during the pandemic. According to data published by Goldman Sachs, workers' earnings are growing at less than 5% per quarter, down from as much as 8% in 2021. And wage growth for lower-paid workers, represented by leisure and hospitality positions, has declined to less than 6% after having surged to about 18% in the winter of 2021-22.
“We see the slowdown in wage growth alongside a further decline in the unemployment rate as supportive of our long-standing view that much of the peak wage growth overshoot was driven by temporary factors” — mostly pandemic-related causes like stimulus checks, reduced labor supply and energy price spikes that led workers to demand higher pay, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote in a note to clients Friday.
“All of these have fully or partially faded on their own and appear to have solved much of the problem of lowering wage growth to the 3.5% pace that we estimate would be compatible with 2% inflation," Mericle continued.
As a result, he said, there is less urgency for the Fed to continue aggressively hiking interest rates.
But McBride of Bankrate said that even as inflation continues to slow, it won't reverse outright. Only in rare instances — and not even during some recessions — do prices decline on an annual basis.
The bottom line: The higher prices that have become a hallmark of the post-pandemic U.S. economy are here to stay.
"The hoped-for moderation in inflation is not something that means prices will fall. It just means they don’t rise as fast," McBride said.
"The inflation we’ve seen over the past couple of years has increased household expenses and essentially set a new base, and those expenses are not going to fall in a broad-based way. They just might not go up as fast."
Rob Wile is a breaking business news reporter for NBC News Digital.
US manufacturing near three-year low; casts a shadow over economy
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-sector-weakest-nearly-three-years-march-ism-2023-04-03/
- Summary
- Manufacturing PMI at 46.3 in March versus 47.7 in February
- New orders index tumbles to 44.3 from 47.0 in February
- Employment contracts; prices gauge declines
WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity slumped in March to the lowest level in nearly three years as new orders plunged, and analysts said activity could decline further due to tighter credit conditions.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey on Monday showed all subcomponents of its manufacturing PMI below the 50 threshold for the first time since 2009. Some economists said this suggested a recession was around the corner, while others said much would depend on the services sector, whose PMI remains consistent with a growing economy.
Federal Reserve rate hikes to fight inflation have raised borrowing costs and cooled demand for goods.
"Manufacturing is pulling back, but the service sector was still chugging along in February," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. "As long as it remains well above 50 when reported on Wednesday, the broad economy should be just fine. Nevertheless, the health of manufacturing is related to the health of the overall economy."
The ISM's manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest level since May 2020, from 47.7 in February. Outside the COVID-19 pandemic, it was the weakest reading since mid-2009.
消費、製造業全線下滑，美國經濟正“逐步冷卻”
華爾街見聞 2023年04月15日 15:19
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-04-15/doc-imyqmynm2502498.shtml?cref=cj
即使如此，美聯儲還要再加息25基點？在通脹和借貸成本高企的背景下，美國消費和製造業活動均顯著放緩。
其中，3月零售額下滑幅度為四個月來最大，主要是因為加油站收入下滑和汽車經銷商業務放緩。製造業產出降幅也超過預期，盡管前兩個月的數據有所修正，使得第一季度的生產仍略有增長。
結合近期通脹數據釋放出的信號，隔夜公布的經濟數據表明，美國經濟正逐步走向“冷卻”。盡管如此，交易員仍預計美聯儲5月份將再次加息25基點，但也有一些政策製定者最近暗示對暫停加息持開放態度。
美國消費正加速萎縮，工業活動延續放緩趨勢
美國人口普查局周五公布的數據顯示，美國3月零售銷售環比-1%，遠低於市場預期的-0.4%。
不過，除去汽車和汽油後，美國3月零售銷售環比減少0.3%，高於預期的-0.5%。
另外，對照組零售額——用於計算國內生產總值——不包括食品服務、汽車經銷商、建築材料商店和加油站的零售額降幅也低於預期。
周五晚間，美聯儲公布的數據顯示，美國製造業產出環比-0.5%，遠低於市場預期的-0.1%，這也是該指標今年以來首次出現下降。
製造業產出下滑，主要是因為企業在借貸成本上升的情況下顯示出縮減投資計劃的跡象。
不過，1月製造業產出環比增速由0.1%上修至0.6%。
3月工業產出環比增長0.4%，略高於預期的0.2%，前值也從0%上修至0.2%。
“今天上午數據的共同主題是，第一季度情況相對強勁和良好，但進入第二季度時明顯放緩，”法國巴黎銀行(32.56, 0.82, 2.58%)高級美國經濟學家Yelena Shulyatyeva表示，“這一點你可以在對照組零售額中看到，你可以在工業生產數據中看到這一點，尤其是在製造業。”
高通(120.16, -0.97, -0.80%)脹下，經濟依然壓力山大
根據最近公布的物價數據，通脹出現放慢下行的趨勢，經濟仍麵臨巨大的壓力。
美國密歇根大學公布的4月調查初值顯示，消費者預計未來一年的通脹率從3月的3.6%升至4.6%，創將近兩年來最大升幅，未來五年通脹預期連續五個月企穩於2.9%。消費者的未來一年汽油預期價格漲至六個月來高位，未來五年預期價處於近一年來高位。
評論稱，消費者充分意識到通脹已從高峰回落，但高物價仍使他們對財務狀況感到不安。還有人認為，整體通脹之前已經因汽油價格下跌而回落，但這種趨勢可能很快反轉，更令人擔憂的是，剔除食品和能源的核心通脹頑固居高不下，這是美聯儲可能將更高利率持續更久的風險所在。
正如評論所言，本周早些時候公布的CPI數據顯示，住房壓力下核心CPI同比反彈維持高位，再顯通脹粘性。
PPI數據則帶來了更多好消息：整體和核心PPI增速均低於預期，前者同比增速創逾兩年來最低紀錄，環比增速也創下近三年來最低紀錄。
但令人不得不警惕的是，OPEC+月初宣布的大規模減產可能會繼續放緩通脹下行的趨勢。
德意誌銀行經濟學家Justin Weidner表示，美聯儲官員“將更多地關注這一事實，即通脹預期仍存在一定不確定性，以及他們不能將向好的信號視為理所當然的事實。
