By WASHINGTON — There are different ways of showing presidential courage. One is getting on a train to visit Kyiv in the middle of the war there. Another is picking up the phone and calling Xi Jinping at a time of sharply deteriorating U.S.-China relations.
There are different ways of showing presidential courage. One is getting on a train to visit Kyiv in the middle of the war there. Another is picking up the phone and calling Xi Jinping at a time of sharply deteriorating U.S.-China relations.
Reaching out to the Chinese leader wouldn’t win President Biden popularity points at home, and it would give Republicans a talking point they would undoubtedly exploit. But it’s the right thing to do regardless of the politics. And it embodies the mature global stewardship that should be part of Biden’s brand as a leader.
I know the objections. Xi will treat Biden’s outreach as a concession and a sign of U.S. weakness. The United States won’t get meaningful benefits. Xi’s ruthlessly self-interested regime will pursue its goals even more aggressively. And Europeans will think that they have a license to dicker with China, too.
展現總統勇氣的方式有很多種。 一個是在基輔戰爭期間乘火車去訪問基輔。 另一個是在美中關係急劇惡化之際拿起電話給習近平打電話。
與中國領導人接觸不會贏得拜登總統在國內的聲望，而且會給共和黨人一個他們無疑會利用的話題。 但不管政治如何，這都是正確的做法。 它體現了成熟的全球管理，這應該成為拜登作為領導者品牌的一部分。
我知道反對意見。 習近平會將拜登的外展視為讓步和美國軟弱的跡象。 美國不會得到有意義的好處。 習冷酷無情的自利政權將更加積極地追求其目標。 歐洲人會認為他們也有資格與中國討價還價。
Confrontation might indeed lie ahead. But Biden was right last year to try to put a “floor” under this deteriorating relationship. At the Bali summit in November, Xi and Biden both seemed ready to reduce tensions and improve strategic stability.
“I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly,” Biden said afterward. Xi similarly said: “As the leaders of these two great powers, China and the United States, we must play the role setting the direction of the rudder.”
那麽，拜登為什麽要暗示他現在想與習近平接觸呢？ 簡單的答案是，華盛頓和北京之間的關係接近現代的最低點，這是因為兩國首都的強硬派似乎認為對抗是不可避免的。對抗可能真的就在前方。 但拜登去年試圖為這種不斷惡化的關係設置一個“地板”是正確的。 在 11 月的巴厘島峰會上，習近平和拜登似乎都準備緩和緊張局勢並提高戰略穩定性。
“我希望負責任地管理這場比賽，”拜登賽後表示。 習近平同樣說：“作為中美兩個大國的領導人，我們要發揮方向舵的作用。”
But the relationship has imploded since, because of bad Chinese policy, a bad U.S. response and just plain bad luck. The balloon overflight was an example of all three, and although it had little military or strategic importance, the fiasco collapsed the post-Bali diplomatic opening that would have sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing — and might have set the ground for a Biden-Xi summit.
Xi wanted the Blinken visit; that became clear with China’s semi-apology after its surveillance balloon was discovered drifting across the United States. Blinken canceled the trip, but he hoped to rehabilitate relations (and rebook his flight) in a meeting in Munich last month with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. But that, too, soured, partly because the United States decided to leak to its allies intelligence that China was considering sending weapons to Russia.
但自那以後，由於糟糕的中國政策、糟糕的美國回應以及純粹的厄運，兩國關係已經破裂。 氣球飛越是這三者中的一個例子，雖然它沒有什麽軍事或戰略重要性，但這場慘敗破壞了後巴厘島的外交開放，這將使國務卿安東尼布林肯前往北京 - 並可能為拜登奠定基礎 -習峰會。習希望布林肯訪問； 在發現其監視氣球飄過美國後，中國的半道歉就說明了這一點。 布林肯取消了這次旅行，但他希望在上個月與外交部長王毅在慕尼黑會麵時恢複關係（並重新預訂航班）。 但這也很糟糕，部分原因是美國決定向其盟友泄露中國正在考慮向俄羅斯運送武器的情報。
With public warnings to China and Blinken’s private attempt to re-engage, U.S. diplomacy was moving in two directions at once, and not surprisingly, it went nowhere. Meanwhile, with growing GOP attacks on China, and “low confidence” but headline-making intelligence suggesting that covid-19 might have resulted from a lab leak, Washington has been experiencing a “perfect typhoon” that could swamp efforts at dialogue.
So the desired floor under the relationship has now all but collapsed. The current focus of tension involves the U.S. intelligence reporting that China might supply Russia with ammunition to sustain its flagging war in Ukraine. U.S. officials believe that some leaders beneath Xi are wary of this doubling-down on Russia, seeing a stable relationship with the United States and its European allies as a better bet for China than backing a losing, escalation-prone Vladimir Putin. Officials tell me that China hasn’t sent the weapons yet; if it does, Biden will have to take sharp countermeasures.
隨著對中國的公開警告和布林肯私下試圖重新接觸，美國外交同時朝著兩個方向發展，毫不奇怪，它毫無進展。 與此同時，隨著共和黨對中國的攻擊越來越多，以及“信心不足”但成為頭條新聞的情報表明 covid-19 可能是實驗室泄漏造成的，華盛頓一直在經曆一場可能淹沒對話努力的“完美台風”。
因此，這種關係所期望的底線現在幾乎崩潰了。 當前的緊張焦點涉及美國情報部門的報告，稱中國可能向俄羅斯提供彈藥，以維持其在烏克蘭的萎靡不振的戰爭。 美國官員認為，習近平手下的一些領導人對這種對俄羅斯加倍下注持謹慎態度，認為與美國及其歐洲盟友保持穩定關係比支持失敗、容易升級的弗拉基米爾普京對中國來說是更好的選擇。 官員告訴我，中國還沒有發送武器； 如果是這樣，拜登將不得不采取嚴厲的反製措施。
David Ignatius Biden's best tool for halting a slide in US-China relations? His phone.
https://greensboro.com/david-ignatius-bidens-best-tool-for-halting-a-slide-in-us-china-relations-his-phone/article_0be4d3e6-b93e-11ed-8f67-6ff334b23b98.html
Reaching out to the Chinese leader wouldn’t win President Biden popularity points at home, and it would give Republicans a talking point they would undoubtedly exploit. But it’s the right thing to do regardless of the politics. And it embodies the mature global stewardship that should be part of Biden’s brand as a leader.
I know the objections. Xi will treat Biden’s outreach as a concession and a sign of U.S. weakness. The United States won’t get meaningful benefits. Xi’s ruthlessly self-interested regime will pursue its goals even more aggressively. And Europeans will think that they have a license to dicker with China, too.
So why should Biden signal that he wants to engage Xi now? The simple answer is that the relationship between Washington and Beijing is near its lowest point in modern times, prodded by hard-liners in both capitals who seem to believe confrontation is inevitable.
Confrontation might indeed lie ahead. But Biden was right last year to try to put a “floor” under this deteriorating relationship. At the Bali summit in November, Xi and Biden both seemed ready to reduce tensions and improve strategic stability.
“I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly,” Biden said afterward. Xi similarly said: “As the leaders of these two great powers, China and the United States, we must play the role setting the direction of the rudder.”
華盛頓——展現總統勇氣的方式多種多樣。 一個是在基輔戰爭期間乘火車去訪問基輔。 另一個是在美中關係急劇惡化之際拿起電話給習近平打電話。
與中國領導人接觸不會贏得拜登總統在國內的聲望，而且會給共和黨人一個他們無疑會利用的話題。 但不管政治如何，這都是正確的做法。 它體現了成熟的全球管理，這應該成為拜登作為領導者品牌的一部分。
我知道反對意見。 習近平會將拜登的外展視為讓步和美國軟弱的跡象。 美國不會得到有意義的好處。 習冷酷無情的自利政權將更加積極地追求其目標。 歐洲人會認為他們也有資格與中國討價還價。
那麽，拜登為什麽要暗示他現在想與習近平接觸呢？ 簡單的答案是，華盛頓和北京之間的關係接近現代的最低點，這是因為兩國首都的強硬派似乎認為對抗是不可避免的。
對抗可能真的就在前方。 但拜登去年試圖為這種不斷惡化的關係設置一個“地板”是正確的。 在 11 月的巴厘島峰會上，習近平和拜登似乎都準備緩和緊張局勢並提高戰略穩定性。
“我希望負責任地管理這場比賽，”拜登賽後表示。 習近平同樣說：“作為中美兩個大國的領導人，我們要發揮方向舵的作用。”
But the relationship has imploded since, because of bad Chinese policy, a bad U.S. response and just plain bad luck. The balloon overflight was an example of all three, and although it had little military or strategic importance, the fiasco collapsed the post-Bali diplomatic opening that would have sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing—and might have set the ground for a Biden-Xi summit.
With public warnings to China and Blinken’s private attempt to re-engage, U.S. diplomacy was moving in two directions at once, and not surprisingly, it went nowhere. Meanwhile, with growing GOP attacks on China, and “low confidence” but headline-making intelligence suggesting that COVID-19 might have resulted from a lab leak, Washington has been experiencing a “perfect typhoon” that could swamp efforts at dialogue.
So the desired floor under the relationship has now all but collapsed. The current focus of tension involves the U.S. intelligence reporting that China might supply Russia with ammunition to sustain its flagging war in Ukraine. U.S. officials believe that some leaders beneath Xi are wary of this doubling-down on Russia, seeing a stable relationship with the U.S. and its European allies as a better bet for China than backing a losing, escalation-prone Vladimir Putin. Officials tell me that China hasn’t sent the weapons yet; if it does, Biden will have to take sharp countermeasures.
That’s why Biden should make that call to Beijing now — because we are on the lip of a significant further deterioration in U.S.-China relations. The audience would be China, and also the countries of the global south such as India, South Africa and Brazil that worry about increasing instability in a world where the United States seems obsessed with great-power conflict but unable to cap rising tensions.
It’s true that the Chinese calibrate U.S. strength. But appearing weak shouldn’t be such a worry for a United States whose military power dwarfs that of its rivals.
Consider the array of U.S.-led power emerging in the Indo-Pacific: U.S. Marines are deploying forward to provide better leverage against any Chinese attack against Taiwan. A rearming Japan is deploying American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Philippines is providing the U.S.with military bases close to Taiwan. Later this month, Biden will formally launch AUKUS, the major new Asian military alliance with Australia and Britain. These strong deterrence moves don’t preclude diplomacy, they enable it.
Biden should close his phone call by inviting Xi for a face-to-face meeting. Such summits amid global tension are high-risk, high-reward. Some of President Ronald Reagan’s advisers thought he was nuts to meet with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1986. But the meeting was a positive inflection point.
Will Republicans howl about any new opening with China? For sure. Would a Biden-Xi meeting produce any meaningful results? No one can say.
Is it worth a try? Absolutely.
華盛頓——展現總統勇氣的方式多種多樣。 一個是在基輔戰爭期間乘火車去訪問基輔。 另一個是在美中關係急劇惡化之際拿起電話給習近平打電話。
與中國領導人接觸不會贏得拜登總統在國內的聲望，而且會給共和黨人一個他們無疑會利用的話題。 但不管政治如何，這都是正確的做法。 它體現了成熟的全球管理，這應該成為拜登作為領導者品牌的一部分。
我知道反對意見。 習近平會將拜登的外展視為讓步和美國軟弱的跡象。 美國不會得到有意義的好處。 習冷酷無情的自利政權將更加積極地追求其目標。 歐洲人會認為他們也有資格與中國討價還價。
那麽，拜登為什麽要暗示他現在想與習近平接觸呢？ 簡單的答案是，華盛頓和北京之間的關係接近現代的最低點，這是因為兩國首都的強硬派似乎認為對抗是不可避免的。
對抗可能真的就在前方。 但拜登去年試圖為這種不斷惡化的關係設置一個“地板”是正確的。 在 11 月的巴厘島峰會上，習近平和拜登似乎都準備緩和緊張局勢並提高戰略穩定性。
“我希望負責任地管理這場比賽，”拜登賽後表示。 習近平同樣說：“作為中美兩個大國的領導人，我們要發揮方向舵的作用。”
