達利歐 中國正在贏得貿易戰 雙方仍可避免軍事衝突

橋水基金創始人：中國正在贏得與美國的貿易戰 雙方仍可避免軍事衝突

Abeer Abu Omar、Zainab Fattah 2023年2月15日

 

【彭博】-- 對衝基金橋水基金創始人達利歐表示，中國在與美國的貿易戰中佔了上風，但全球兩大經濟體之間的針鋒相對可能不會升級為軍事衝突。

這位億萬富翁投資者周三在迪拜的一場會議上表示，人民幣開始更廣泛地用於國際貿易。

達利歐說，隻要觀察數字——世界貿易的佔比和主導地位，即知中國正在贏得貿易戰。

華盛頓和北京在人權、貿易以及技術和市場競爭等問題上都有衝突。隨著據稱是中國的間諜氣球在美國上空遭到擊落，兩國關係跌至新低點。

拜登政府還在推進限製中國獲取敏感半導體技術的計劃，並試圖迫使其視為盟友的國家也跟進。它還致力於減少美國對中國商品的依賴。

去年年底曾經警告兩國“濱臨軍事戰爭”的達利歐說，美國似乎仍處於與中國發生衝突的“邊緣”。

他說，“處於邊緣不意味著會越過邊緣。 希望我們不會越過邊緣。”

原文標題Dalio Says China’s Winning Trade War With US But Clash Avoidable

--聯合報道 Anthony Di Paola、Ben Bartenstein.

Dalio Says China’s Winning Trade War With US But Clash Avoidable

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dalio-says-china-s-winning-trade-war-with-us-but-clash-avoidable-1.1884049#:~:text=

Abeer Abu Omar and Zainab Fattah, Bloomberg News

 

Ray Dalio, billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., on Wednesday, May 1, 2019. The conference brings together leaders in business, government, technology, philanthropy, academia, and the media to discuss actionable and collaborative solutions to some of the most important questions of our time. , Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict.

The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China.

“China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. 

Washington and Beijing have clashed on issues including human rights, trade and competition for technology and markets. Relations have hit a new low point with the shooting down of an alleged Chinese spy balloon over US territory.

The Biden administration is also pressing ahead with plans to curb China’s access to sensitive semiconductor technology and is trying to get countries it considers allies to do the same. It’s also working to lessen US reliance on China for merchandise.

Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. 

“Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. 

But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. 

“A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said.

“The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”

--With assistance from Anthony Di Paola and Ben Bartenstein.

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.