點評投資教父關於股票與房產的論述
如山
( 2012 年 1 月 28 日,星期六)
首先感謝投壇的(排名不分先後: P )阿毛( Morning3evening4 ),老楊家( laoyangdelp ),加州陽光( SunshineInCA ),不糊塗( noconfusion )和美西遊子……等等(恕不一一列名)的寶貴經驗和建議。尤其是給俺推薦了 Burton G. Malkiel 的《漫步華爾街》( A Random Walk Down Wall Street )。
《漫步華爾街》從 1973 年開始已經重複出版了 10 次,銷售超過一百五十萬本,其中的方法經曆了將近 40 年的時間檢驗。從投壇股票牛人們自我介紹的輝煌業績中可見,在股票市場上比這本書介紹的簡單“笨”方法賺錢多得多的大有人在。可是對於敝人這樣的“菜鳥”,用這種 DCA 買大市場指數基金的“無腦子”方法( To No-Brainer Step : Investing in Index Funds )覺得真是非常受用: - )。雖然敝人以前在金融市場上買過的一些東西現在都蠻賺錢,但是需要說明的是,那是本人走的“狗屎運”,絕對不能算是本人在這方麵的知識和能力而得。
曾經有網友問,如山是否“改行”做股票啦?也有網友好心提醒,你應該“揚長避短”。其實我的投資策略和“維生”內容都沒變。我從來沒說過不應該買股票。相反,兩年多前我剛上網“塗鴉”就寫過《 瞎扯投資》, 介紹我買的一些東西。本人是比較“長情”“專一”的人,買了的東西一放就很多年。對物對人都一樣。所以說這種 DCA 也很適合我的作風。再者,這是我副業中的副業,比上網 “塗鴉”花的時間少多了。隻求這點錢比銀行存款高一點點就滿意了。房地產才是我的主業,是我願意、能夠、也覺得有能力把握風險的東東。
好了,為了避免談些自己不在行的東西丟人現眼,咱還是“三句話不離本行”說說與房產有關的內容吧。
看來金融股票的教父都不忘提房地產。 Burton G. Malkiel 在《漫步華爾街》中關於房地產的論述也很抓我的眼球。他還專門用一章來論述( Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home-Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles )。我現在先將感興趣的部分全部 Copy 在下麵,然後再抽出其中的相關論點來評論。請童鞋們注意了,這是新鮮出爐的 2012 年版,不是多年以前的,就是說作者的論點考慮了目前的房地產現狀:
Remember Scarlett O’harassment ? She was broke at the end of the Civil War, but she still had her beloved plantation, Tara. A good house on good land keeps its value no matter what happens to money . As long as the world’s population continues to grow, the demand for real estate will be among the most dependable inflation hedges available.
Although the calculation is tricky , it is appears that the long run returns on residential real estate have been quite generous. We did have a bubble in single-family home prices during 2007 and 2008. By the second decade of the 2000s, however, home prices have returned to “normal”, so it is again safe to enter the market. But the real estate market is less efficient than the stock market. There may be hundreds of knowledgeable investors who study the worth of every common stock. Perhaps only a handful of prospective buyers assess the worth of a particular real estate property. Hence, individual pieces of property are not always appropriately priced . Finally, real estate returns seem to be higher than stock returns during periods when inflation is accelerating, but do less well during periods of disinflation. In sum, real estate has proved to be a good investment providing generous returns and excellent inflation-hedging characteristics.
請童鞋們注意讀我 Highline 部分的句子。雖然本人在沒讀該書前已經寫過類似的觀點,但俺不好意思說教父跟我的觀點“不謀而合”或者“英雄所見略同”。下麵解讀一下有意思的幾句話:
要承認,房產中賺大錢也是需要一些 “狗屎運”的。不過說實話,也隻有你做了足夠多,有足夠的經驗、知識和當地的人脈才容易有機會走這些“狗屎運”。從這個角度來講,希望對房產有濃厚興趣的童鞋們多走“狗屎運”。
(注:本文為如山原創,轉載請與作者聯係)
請參考敝人相關文章:
《試談價值投資方法在房地產投資上與股票投資上的不同》 http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/43626/200911/19149.html
《美國房產價格曆史圖的解讀與房產回報初探》 http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/43626/201104/23835.html
《評估房地產價值和投資回報方法之我見》 http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/43626/201007/26031.html
《試談房產投資回報計算和評估物業價值的方法以及應用 (1) 》 http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/43626/200908/18889.html
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