白馬非馬
屬羊，但非羊。白馬非馬，個別非一般。似是而非，道在屎溺。
我和傅高義的一次郵件交流
李進進
傅高義(Ezra Vogel)教授去世的消息傳來，使我想起和他的一次Email交流。雖然是一次對抗性的交流，還是介紹給大家，也是對這位中國學頂級專家的一種紀念。
這次Email交流涉及到包括他在內的100名美國中國問題專家寫給特朗普總統和國會議員的一封公開信。這封公開信由傅泰林(M. Taylor Fravel)、芮效儉(J. Stapleton Roy)、史文(Michael D. Swaine)、董雲裳(Susan A. Thornton)，和傅高義(Ezra Vogel)牽頭，其他95為中國問題專家簽名，於2019年7月3日發表在《華盛頓郵報》， 標題是“中國不是敵人”。
該公開信談了七個要點。請看文後的附件。那些中國學者判定在經濟上中國不是美國的敵人，無論從那點來看中國都沒有構成對美國國家安全的威脅。他們認為盡管中國在軍事和外交上不斷擴展空間，但是中國官員和精英們都認為和西方合作符合他們的最佳利益。華盛頓的激進政策會導致中國的民族主義情緒高漲和反彈。所以美國要和其同盟者一起來創造一個良好的世界環境，讓中國參與其中，限製其惡，使其行善。他們希望中國的改革派和自由派有一定的空間，並把中國共產黨當作一隻可馴服的羊。
我讀了這封信內心後，覺得這些學者怎麽那麽幼稚。共產黨的使命就是要消滅資本主義，實行無產階級專政，當變得強大的時候，它如何和西方世界和平相處。我認為他們是一幫“東郭先生”，於是當天就給那五個帶頭的“東郭先生”寫了一封信。 這封信的中文翻譯如下：
給：傅泰林(M. Taylor Fravel)、芮效儉(J. Stapleton Roy)、史文(Michael D. Swaine)、董雲裳(Susan A. Thornton)傅高義(Ezra Vogel)的公開信：
我們不能同意各位作者7月3日在《華盛頓郵報》發表的寫給川普總統和美國國會議員、標題為“中國不是敵人”的公開信中之觀點。
盡管公開信提到了中國違反人權、違反國際法並且想成為軍事強國來主導世界，但是作者們的結論卻是中國並非美國的敵人，這太荒謬了。
從字麵上來看，中國不是敵人，這是對的。 但是，作者們提到的中國不是一個地理上的中國，不是一個具有偉大民族的中國，也不是一個尊重國際規範的國家。從文字內容可以看出，作者所指的中國是一個被中國共產黨強硬核心所控製的一個實體：在那裏， 人民不被允許發表他們的不同觀點和意見， 成千上萬的監控設備被安裝到公共場所的每一個角落， 人民以“不忘（共產）初心”的理念被洗腦。 在這樣一個環境下， 我們怎能依靠如各位作者所說的—-一些思想開放的“中國官員和精英”們“溫和、務實地與西方世界真誠合作？”
另外， 各位作者仍天真地認為， 在這片自由國土上的美國人民和政府， 可以與美國的盟友和合作夥伴“創造一個包括中國參與的更加開放和繁榮的世界。”殘酷事實是我們的盟友們正在為了他們的經濟利益交換基本人權和原則，而中國正在用腐敗的權力來腐蝕著二戰之後被各國共同建立起來的國際秩序。 請記住一個人：Arthur Neville Chamberlian（亞瑟.內維爾.張伯倫），這是作者們都很熟悉的一個名字。
李進進
律師，胡耀邦、趙紫陽紀念基金會董事長， 中國人權理事
我在網上找到他們五個“東郭先生”的Email地址，並電郵給他們。我也並沒有期待有人會回我的信。我寫信的當天是2019年7月4日上午，美國獨立節那天。沒想到，傅高義先生立刻給我回了一個以Email短信，內容如下：
“想想胡耀邦在中國的深淵影響，你真的認為中國人都被洗腦並且沒有政府官員尊重胡耀邦？”
他提到胡耀邦大概是因為我留下了“胡耀邦、趙紫陽紀念基金會董事長”這個頭銜。
7月9日，我也恢複了一封電郵，大意如下：
謝謝你回複我給你的信。 你的問題我不能準確回答，因為問題不在於是否有胡耀邦的追隨者。 問題是有多少追隨者；如果有幾個， 他們的影響是什麽。 在中國肯定有一些胡耀邦的追隨者， 但他們中的大多數都老了。 很多年輕人不知道趙紫陽和胡耀邦。 胡的追隨者在中國的政策製定上沒有任何影響力。我和他們有些接觸。 他們希望美國，這個人類尊嚴和自由的最後希望的【燈塔國】，能夠采取更有力的政策，反對習近平的中國政府。
我們的Email交流到此為止。這封公開信的事我也差不多忘了。傅高義先生的去世，讓我重新想起這件事，並再去看看他參與起頭的公開信和他回我的Email。我是在工作之餘激憤下寫的Email，現在看來對他們是“大不敬”，但是我的觀點還是正確的。傅高義先生的回複，雖然我覺得遠離了中國實際，但是他也許是真實的希望中國能夠繼續在江和胡溫政策下繼續走下去。但是有點他沒有想到的是，鄧小平的改革開放並不允許中國走向“自由化”。中共強大了，是會把它的坦克開到別的國家廣場的。不管怎麽說，他是個大學者，看到了中國六、七十年代的饑餓和貧窮，他希望中國變富強。這是值得紀念的。
【附件1，美國百名中國問題專家的公開信原文】
Washington Post
Opinion by M. Taylor Fravel, J. Stapleton Roy, Michael D. Swaine, Susan A. Thornton and Ezra Vogel
July 3, 2019 at 9:00 a.m. EDT
Dear President Trump and members of Congress:
We are members of the scholarly, foreign policy, military and business communities, overwhelmingly from the United States, including many who have focused on Asia throughout our professional careers. We are deeply concerned about the growing deterioration in U.S. relations with China, which we believe does not serve American or global interests. Although we are very troubled by Beijing’s recent behavior, which requires a strong response, we also believe that many U.S. actions are contributing directly to the downward spiral in relations.
The following seven propositions represent our collective views on China, the problems in the U.S. approach to China and the basic elements of a more effective U.S. policy. Our institutional affiliations are provided for identification purposes only.
- China’s troubling behavior in recent years — including its turn toward greater domestic repression, increased state control over private firms, failure to live up to several of its trade commitments, greater efforts to control foreign opinion and more aggressive foreign policy — raises serious challenges for the rest of the world. These challenges require a firm and effective U.S. response, but the current approach to China is fundamentally counterproductive.
- We do not believe Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone. Although its rapid economic and military growth has led Beijing toward a more assertive international role, many Chinese officials and other elites know that a moderate, pragmatic and genuinely cooperative approach with the West serves China’s interests. Washington’s adversarial stance toward Beijing weakens the influence of those voices in favor of assertive nationalists. With the right balance of competition and cooperation, U.S. actions can strengthen those Chinese leaders who want China to play a constructive role in world affairs.
- U.S. efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy will damage the United States’ international role and reputation and undermine the economic interests of all nations. U.S. opposition will not prevent the continued expansion of the Chinese economy, a greater global market share for Chinese companies and an increase in China’s role in world affairs. Moreover, the United States cannot significantly slow China’s rise without damaging itself. If the United States presses its allies to treat China as an economic and political enemy, it will weaken its relations with those allies and could end up isolating itself rather than Beijing.
- The fear that Beijing will replace the United States as the global leader is exaggerated. Most other countries have no interest in such an outcome, and it is not clear that Beijing itself sees this goal as necessary or feasible. Moreover, a government intent on limiting the information and opportunities available to its own citizens and harshly repressing its ethnic minorities will not garner meaningful international support nor succeed in attracting global talent. The best American response to these practices is to work with our allies and partners to create a more open and prosperous world in which China is offered the opportunity to participate. Efforts to isolate China will simply weaken those Chinese intent on developing a more humane and tolerant society.
- Although China has set a goal of becoming a world-class military by midcentury, it faces immense hurdles to operating as a globally dominant military power. However, Beijing’s growing military capabilities have already eroded the United States’ long-standing military preeminence in the Western Pacific. The best way to respond to this is not to engage in an open-ended arms race centered on offensive, deep-strike weapons and the virtually impossible goal of reasserting full-spectrum U.S. dominance up to China’s borders. A wiser policy is to work with allies to maintain deterrence, emphasizing defensive-oriented, area denial capabilities, resiliency and the ability to frustrate attacks on U.S. or allied territory, while strengthening crisis-management efforts with Beijing.
- Beijing is seeking to weaken the role of Western democratic norms within the global order. But it is not seeking to overturn vital economic and other components of that order from which China itself has benefited for decades. Indeed, China’s engagement in the international system is essential to the system’s survival and to effective action on common problems such as climate change. The United States should encourage Chinese participation in new or modified global regimes in which rising powers have a greater voice. A zero-sum approach to China’s role would only encourage Beijing to either disengage from the system or sponsor a divided global order that would be damaging to Western interests.
- In conclusion, a successful U.S. approach to China must focus on creating enduring coalitions with other countries in support of economic and security objectives. It must be based on a realistic appraisal of Chinese perceptions, interests, goals and behavior; an accurate match of U.S. and allied resources with policy goals and interests; and a rededication of U.S. efforts to strengthen its own capacity to serve as a model for others. Ultimately, the United States’ interests are best served by restoring its ability to compete effectively in a changing world and by working alongside other nations and international organizations rather than by promoting a counterproductive effort to undermine and contain China’s engagement with the world.
We believe that the large number of signers of this open letter clearly indicates that there is no single Washington consensus endorsing an overall adversarial stance toward China, as some believe exists.
- M. Taylor Fravel is a professor of political science at MIT.
- J. Stapleton Roy is a distinguished scholar at the Wilson Center and a former U.S. ambassador to China.
- Michael D. Swaine is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
- Susan A. Thornton is a senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center and a former acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
- Ezra Vogel is a professor emeritus at Harvard University.
The above individuals circulated the letter, which was signed by the following:
●James Acton, co-director, Nuclear Policy Program and Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●Craig Allen, former U.S. ambassador to Brunei from 2014–2018
●Andrew Bacevich, co-founder, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
●Jeffrey A. Bader, former senior director for East Asia on National Security Council 2009-2011 and fellow, Brookings Institution
●C. Fred Bergsten, senior fellow and director emeritus, Peterson Institute for International Economics
●Jan Berris, vice president, National Committee on United States-China Relations
●Dennis J. Blasko, former U.S. Army Attaché to China, 1992-1996
●Pieter Bottelier, visiting scholar, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
●Ian Bremmer, president, Eurasia Group
●Richard Bush, Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, Brookings Institution
●Jerome A. Cohen, faculty director, US-Asia Law Institute, New York University
●Warren I. Cohen, distinguished university professor emeritus, University of Maryland
●Bernard Cole, former U.S. Navy captain
●James F. Collins, U.S. ambassador to the Russian Federation 1997-2001
●Gerald L Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus, Columbia University
●Toby Dalton, co-director, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●Robert Daly, director, Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S., Wilson Center
●Michael C. Desch, Packey J. Dee Professor of International Affairs and director of the Notre Dame International Security Center
●Mac Destler, professor emeritus, University of Maryland School of Public Policy
●Bruce Dickson, professor of political science and international affairs, George Washington University
●David Dollar, senior fellow, Brookings Institution
●Peter Dutton, senior fellow, U.S.-Asia Law Institute; adjunct professor, New York University School of Law
●Robert Einhorn, senior fellow, Brookings Institution; former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, 1999-2001
●Amitai Etzioni, University Professor and Professor of International Affairs, George Washington University
●Thomas Fingar, Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University; former deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, 2005-2008
●Mary Gallagher, political science professor and director of the Lieberthal-Rogel Center for Chinese Studies, University of Michigan
●John Gannon, adjunct professor, Georgetown University; former chairman of the National Intelligence Council, 1997-2001
●Avery Goldstein, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, University of Pennsylvania
●Steven M. Goldstein, associate of the Fairbank Center; director of the Taiwan Studies Workshop at Harvard University
●David F. Gordon, senior advisor, International Institute of Strategic Studies; former director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department, 2007-2009
●Philip H. Gordon, Mary and David Boies Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations; former special assistant to the president and Coordinator for the Middle East and assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs
●Morton H. Halperin, former director of Policy Planning Staff at State Department, 1998-2001
●Lee Hamilton, former congressman; former president and director of the Wilson Center
●Clifford A. Hart Jr., former U.S. consul general to Hong Kong and Macau, 2013-2016
●Paul Heer, adjunct professor, George Washington University; former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, 2007-2015
●Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies
●Ambassador Carla A. Hills, former United States Trade Representative, 1989-1993; chair & CEO Hills & Company, International Consultants
●Jamie P. Horsley, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School
●Yukon Huang, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●Frank Jannuzi, president and CEO, Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation
●Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor and Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
●Marvin Kalb, nonresident senior fellow, Brookings Institution
●Mickey Kantor, former secretary of commerce,1996-1997; U.S. trade representative, 1993-1996
●Robert Kapp, president, Robert A. Kapp & Associates, Inc.; former president, U.S.-China Business Council; former president, Washington Council on International Trade
●Albert Keidel, adjunct graduate professor, George Washington University; former deputy director of the Office of East Asian Nations at the Treasury Department, 2001-2004
●Robert O. Keohane, professor of International Affairs emeritus, Princeton University
●William Kirby, Spangler Family Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School; T. M. Chang Professor of China Studies at Harvard University
●Helena Kolenda, program director for Asia, Henry Luce Foundation
●Charles Kupchan, professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University; senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
●David M. Lampton, professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Oksenberg Rholen Fellow, Stanford University Asia-Pacific Research Center; former president, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
●Nicholas Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
●Chung Min Lee, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●Herbert Levin, former staff member for China on National Security Council and Policy Planning Council
●Cheng Li, director and senior fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution
●Kenneth Lieberthal, professor emeritus, University of Michigan; former Asia senior director, National Security Council, 1998-2000
●Yawei Liu, director of China Program, The Carter Center
●Jessica Mathews, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●James McGregor, chairman, Greater China, APCO Worldwide
●John McLaughlin, distinguished practitioner in residence, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; former deputy director and acting director of the CIA, 2000-2004
●Andrew Mertha, Hyman Professor and Director of the China Program, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
●Alice Lyman Miller, research fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
●Mike Mochizuki, Japan-U.S. Relations Chair in Memory of Gaston Sigur, George Washington University
●Michael Nacht, Thomas and Alison Schneider Professor of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley; former assistant secretary of defense for global strategic affairs, 2009-2010
●Moises Naim, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●Joseph Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor emeritus and former dean, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
●Kevin O’Brien, political science professor and director of Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley
●Jean Oi, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Stanford University
●Stephen A. Orlins, president, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
●William Overholt, senior research fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
●Douglas Paal, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●Margaret M. Pearson, Dr. Horace V. and Wilma E. Harrison Distinguished Professor, University of Maryland, College Park
●Peter C. Perdue, professor of history, Yale University
●Elizabeth J. Perry , Henry Rosovsky Professor of Government, Harvard University; director, Harvard-Yenching Institute
●Daniel W Piccuta, former deputy chief of mission and acting ambassador, Beijing
●Thomas Pickering, former under secretary of state for political affairs, 1997-2000; former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 1989-1992
●Paul R. Pillar , nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University
●Jonathan D. Pollack, nonresident senior fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
●Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; director, MIT Security Studies Program
●Shelley Rigger, Brown Professor of East Asian Politics, Davidson College
●Charles S. Robb, former U.S. senator (1989-2001) and former chairman of the East Asia subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; governor of Virginia from 1982 to 1986
●Robert S. Ross, professor of political science, Boston College
●Scott D. Sagan, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
●Gary Samore, senior executive director, Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University
●Richard J. Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science and director, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies
●David Shear, former assistant secretary of defense, 2014-2016; former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam
●Anne-Marie Slaughter, former director of policy planning, State Department, 2009-2011; Bert G. Kerstetter ‘66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
●Richard Sokolsky, nonresident senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
●James Steinberg, former deputy secretary of state, 2009-2011
●Michael Szonyi, Frank Wen-Hsiung Wu Memorial Professor of Chinese History Director, Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University
●Strobe Talbott, former deputy secretary of state, 1994-2001
●Anne F. Thurston, former senior research professor, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
●Andrew G. Walder, Denise O’Leary and Kent Thiry Professor, School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University
●Graham Webster, coordinating editor, Stanford-New America DigiChina Project
●David A. Welch, University Research Chair, Balsillie School of International Affairs
●Daniel B. Wright, president and CEO, GreenPoint Group; former managing director for China and the Strategic Economic Dialogue, Treasury Department
【附件2 我寫給傅高義等人的反對信】
Thu, Jul 4, 2019 at 10:35 AM to fravel@mit.edu:
To M. Taylor Fravel, J. Stapleton Roy ,Michael D. Swaine , Susan A. Thornton and Ezra Vogel, the writers of "China is not an enemy" published by the Washington Post, dated July 3, 2019
Dear Professor M. Taylor Frael, et al:
We disagree with you, the writers of the open letter to President Trump and members of Congress, which is titled "China is not an enemy" published by the Washington Post, dated July 3, 2019.
Basically, though the latter mentions that China has abused human rights, violated the international rules, and intended to be a military giant and dominate the world, the writers conclude that China is not an enemy. It is absurd.
Literally, it is right that China is not an enemy. However, China referred hereto by the writers is not a country in geography, a nation with the respectful Chinese people, or a state in terms of the international norms. China in the context of the letter is an entity with evil power manipulated by the hardcore of the Communist Party of China, where there is no space for dissents to express their opinions, tens of millions monitors have been installed in every corner of the public space, and the people have been brainwashed for the CCP’s never forgotten “original communist aspiration.” Under such a circumstance, how could we rely on, as the writers wished, open-minded “Chinese officials and other elites” to make “a moderate, pragmatic and genuinely cooperative approach with the West?”
The writers also naïvely believe that we, the American people on this free land and American government, could “work with our allies and partners to create a more open and prosperous world in which China is offered the opportunity to participate,” where those allies are exchanging the basic human rights with China for their own economic needs while China, with its corrupt power with ambition to dominate the world, is eroding the international orders established by the nations after the end of the world war II. Please remember a name: Arthur Neville Chamberlain, whom the writers are familiar with.
Li Jinjin, SJD (a/k/a/ Jim Li)
Lawyer, President of Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang Memorial Foundation, and the Board Director of Human Rights in China.
【附件3，我和傅高義先生的Email交流】
Ezra Vogel
Jul 4, 2019, 11:44 AM
to me
Considering that Hu Yaobang had such a deep following in China, do you really believe that all Chinese have been brainwashed and that there are no Chinese officials today who respect Hu Yaobang?
Ezra Vogel
Jinjin Li
Jul 9, 2019, 11:30 PM
to Ezra
Thank You for your time.
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32 萬人沒尊嚴地去了， 公知沒戲了