個人認為，美國股市還是在大牛市，
但天有不測之風雲。市場隨時都會翻臉。投資理財最重要的還是風險控製。
曆史的經驗值的注意。
Based on historical analysis, when the SP 500 CAPE ratio has been at or above 37, similar to the current level of 38.6，?the average returns have been negative over the next one, two, and three years.
According to historical data, the likely returns are:
?
* 1 year: approximately -3%
?* 2 years: approximately -12%
?* 3 years: approximately -14%
?
當然，現在有Al，CAPE可能會比平均高一些。
?
預測股市是一件十分困難的事情，
?
但CAPE目前還是預測股市長期走向下最準確的工具之一。
?
前幾天減了點倉位：也算是屁股決定立場吧。
?
YMYD
?
?
?
為什麽減倉？
高山峻嶺流水人家 (2025-08-04 18:00:02) 評論 (0)個人認為，美國股市還是在大牛市，
但天有不測之風雲。市場隨時都會翻臉。投資理財最重要的還是風險控製。
曆史的經驗值的注意。
Based on historical analysis, when the SP 500 CAPE ratio has been at or above 37, similar to the current level of 38.6，?the average returns have been negative over the next one, two, and three years.
According to historical data, the likely returns are:
?
* 1 year: approximately -3%
?* 2 years: approximately -12%
?* 3 years: approximately -14%
?
當然，現在有Al，CAPE可能會比平均高一些。
?
預測股市是一件十分困難的事情，
?
但CAPE目前還是預測股市長期走向下最準確的工具之一。
?
前幾天減了點倉位：也算是屁股決定立場吧。
?
YMYD
?
?
?