你看,你現在又說是IRR,那你就要跟人解釋你算的是IRR,IRR也有自己的弱點的,你考過CFA不會不知道。

來源: asd_123 2012-03-23 19:43:06 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (5438 bytes)
本文內容已被 [ asd_123 ] 在 2012-03-23 20:03:17 編輯過。如有問題,請報告版主或論壇管理刪除.

IRR assumes reinvestment of interim cash flows in projects with equal rates of return (the reinvestment can be the same project or a different project). Therefore, IRR overstates the annual equivalent rate of return for a project whose interim cash flows are reinvested at a rate lower than the calculated IRR. This presents a problem, especially for high IRR projects, since there is frequently not another project available in the interim that can earn the same rate of return as the first project.

When the calculated IRR is higher than the true reinvestment rate for interim cash flows, the measure will overestimate — sometimes very significantly — the annual equivalent return from the project. The formula assumes that the company has additional projects, with equally attractive prospects, in which to invest the interim cash flows.[2]

This makes IRR a suitable (and popular) choice for analyzing venture capital and other private equity investments, as these strategies usually require several cash investments throughout the project, but only see one cash outflow at the end of the project (e.g., via IPO or M&A).

Since IRR does not consider cost of capital, it should not be used to compare projects of different duration. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) does consider cost of capital and provides a better indication of a project's efficiency in contributing to the firm's discounted cash flow.

In the case of positive cash flows followed by negative ones and then by positive ones (for example, + + − − − +) the IRR may have multiple values. In this case a discount rate may be used for the borrowing cash flow and the IRR calculated for the investment cash flow. This applies for example when a customer makes a deposit before a specific machine is built.

In a series of cash flows like (−10, 21, −11), one initially invests money, so a high rate of return is best, but then receives more than one possesses, so then one owes money, so now a low rate of return is best. In this case it is not even clear whether a high or a low IRR is better. There may even be multiple IRRs for a single project, like in the example 0% as well as 10%. Examples of this type of project are strip mines and nuclear power plants, where there is usually a large cash outflow at the end of the project.

In general, the IRR can be calculated by solving a polynomial equation. Sturm's theorem can be used to determine if that equation has a unique real solution. In general the IRR equation cannot be solved analytically but only iteratively.

When a project has multiple IRRs it may be more convenient to compute the IRR of the project with the benefits reinvested.[2] Accordingly, MIRR is used, which has an assumed reinvestment rate, usually equal to the project's cost of capital.

It has been shown[3] that with multiple internal rates of return, the IRR approach can still be interpreted in a way that is consistent with the present value approach provided that the underlying investment stream is correctly identified as net investment or net borrowing.

See also [4] for a way of identifying the relevant value of the IRR from a set of multiple IRR solutions.

Despite a strong academic preference for NPV, surveys indicate that executives prefer IRR over NPV.[5] Apparently, managers find it easier to compare investments of different sizes in terms of percentage rates of return than by dollars of NPV. However, NPV remains the "more accurate" reflection of value to the business. IRR, as a measure of investment efficiency may give better insights in capital constrained situations. However, when comparing mutually exclusive projects, NPV is the appropriate measure.

所有跟帖: 

重點最後一段 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:44:19

我前麵特地都推薦了MIRR可彌補IRR問題,但是IRR更直接明了。NPV相當於殺雞的牛刀,把大家搞混。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:50:29

你看我引用的那段,IRR在計算mutually exclusive projects和cash flow有正有負的及初始有投入 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (161 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:53:27

嘿,我沒有反對NPV,隻是從更容易的IRR入手,至於多重解,我前麵也有探討過,懂得取舍不是大問題。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:01:22

所以我說要解釋清楚,你指的現金回報率是指什麽呀 :p -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:05:14

不就是現金回籠率嗎?大家都清楚了,現金流總和歸0,不需要引入NPV的概念。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:10:54

現在大家才明白你指的是現金總和歸零來算IRR,剛才都不明白你指什麽呢 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:14:45

我歸0公式寫了有十遍了吧,大家都讀過了。隻有你沒有對我的舊帖。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:18:03

不好意思,確實沒看你的舊貼,隻是發現他們好像都沒提歸0公式,:p -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:20:42

前麵和kukuren也有討論過,我要用IRR先定性,而NPV是屬於定量的。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (196 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 19:55:13

問題是你讓他們怎麽算IRR?如果不懂公式,或者沒有一個financial calculator?何況對出租房這種 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (1339 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:03:19

你完全多慮,用Excel的IRR,MIRR即可,前麵都介紹了。+---++也沒有問題。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (121 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:07:54

問題是你一直在提現金流率,他們老地主對現金流率有自己的定義的。你才提的IRR,如果不提,誰 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (52 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:13:17

你的臆想了,哪個老地主自己定義現金流回報率啦?隻要我在婆婆媽媽的說個不停。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:20:23

我剛才看到好多貼在寫現金流啊什麽的 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:21:39

是啊,用現金流計算回報率啊。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:22:40

總之,和你說了半天,也還是和kukuren討論過的一樣,我還是先用IRR是分析是否值得投資,再用NPV計算具體回報,兩者相互相成 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (144 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:25:15

如果是個人投資,有時候不必算那麽多,差不多就可以下手,再說人算不如天算,預期的現金流可能 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (65 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:32:25

這你就從反對我的立場轉到我的立場了。正因為IRR不依賴discount rate,所以它比NPV更明確簡單的給出是否投資的信號。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (378 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:41:38

可是它還是依賴cash flow啊,你怎麽設置每年的空置率和維修之類的費用?怎麽預期突然上漲的 -asd_123- 給 asd_123 發送悄悄話 (46 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:45:29

對每個Ci的決定,IRR與NPV一樣做。 -大家幫我買房- 給 大家幫我買房 發送悄悄話 大家幫我買房 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 03/23/2012 postreply 20:51:14

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