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印度商界精英訪談：中國人有一個做法，是我們印度無法效仿的！
黑白碎片 2025年4月7日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Z5pEKL5r8c
Ruchir Sharma是一位投資者、作家、基金經理和《金融時報》專欄作家，他還是洛克菲勒國際的董事長，以及專注於新興市場的投資公司 Breakout Capital 的創始人兼首席投資官。在2024年5月的一次采訪中，他談到了他對印度經濟增長的看法、中國 80 年代經濟大幅增長的原因，以及中印文化的不同所導致的思維方式和行事方式上的差異。
問
中國肯定經曆過一個J曲線，就像80年代後中國經濟會爆發一樣。是的，是什麽因素促成了這種崛起？
Ruchir Sharma
很簡單，政府一直在放手，給予人們越來越多的自由，擺脫嚴格的控製。他們給予人們越來越多的經濟自由，遠遠超過印度政府給予印度人的自由。
對我來說，這就是最大的矛盾之一，就像我們自稱是民主國家一樣。我們給予人們很多政治自由。好吧，你可以隨心所欲地投票。我們沒有給予人們經濟自由。有太多的許可證和監管。你知道，你可以在那裏投資，但你不能投資，你不能把錢帶到那裏。你不能這樣做。作為這個國家的經濟公民，我們完全被束縛著，盡管我們有很多政治自由。你可以投票。中國則相反，他們吸引了大量外國人進入他們的國家，他們邀請外國投資，並對所有領先的跨國公司說，你來中國，告訴我們怎麽做。你想要什麽？我們會幫你實現的。所以，你知道，我認為存在著一種人們不太了解的對比，他們的做法令人印象深刻。他們邀請外國人來，幫助他們管理公司。在投資方麵，他們想去哪裏就去哪裏。所以，像麥當勞和可口可樂這樣的公司，他們第一次來到中國，就得到了鋪滿紅地毯的待遇，來我們國家做你想做的事。所以我們必須以不同的方式看待這個問題，呃，中國和印度的做法不同。印度在給予人民這種經濟自由方麵要慢得多。呃，2020年代的印度和1990年代的印度。呃，中國，在某些方麵，是的，在經濟上。是的，但我再次認為，唯一的區別是，中國實際上比我們做得更多。呃，在創造商業環境以促進良好發展方麵。呃，你知道，就這一點而言，中國確實有鋪滿紅地毯的待遇。對於商業來說，我認為在這個國家，甚至政府有時幾乎把印度商人看作一群騙子之類的，你知道，就這一點而言，我覺得這種對調查機構可能上門調查的恐懼，以及所有那些行為，我認為這在某種程度上損害了商業信心。所以從某種程度上來說，20世紀90年代的中國和印度確實很相似。我對印度未來10到15年的增長非常樂觀，但看到中國的做法後，我仍然會保持謹慎。中國做得更多，而且在這方麵更加無情。比如在印度，我們仍然認為窮人需要得到大量補貼，他們需要提供大量幫助等等。或者，你知道，即使是莫迪先生，他也非常不願意改變一些國大黨的政策，比如
col，你知道比如給人們提供農場貸款，或者某種形式的政府權，也就是給人們提供就業機會，如果你找不到工作，政府就會提供。中國什麽都沒做，他們告訴窮人，你要麽工作，要麽很遺憾，我們不會以任何方式支持你。所以，他們的做法非常殘酷，也正是這種殘酷創造了生產力繁榮。我們沒有像中國那樣做。所以，這是一個非常重要的區別，就中國曾經多麽殘酷而言，我們仍然非常謹慎。呃，即使是這個政府，你稱之為右翼政府，但從經濟角度來看，我認為它更偏向中間派。它沒有像中國那樣，改變土地法、勞動法或其他什麽。呃，我們還沒有這樣做。
問題：啊，好吧，也許吧。我們的政府對社會底層更有同理心。中國則沒有那麽強的同理心，但這迫使每個人要麽逐漸淡出，要麽展現出自己最好的一麵，為家人賺錢。是的，我認為在印度我們永遠不會看到這種情況。是的，因為我們社會的結構非常情緒化。完全正確。對。
Ruchir Sharma
是的，所以當你說中國和印度是同一回事時，我會非常謹慎。但你說得太對了。這種感覺，一個國家的社會結構非常重要，你知道中國能夠做到這一點。這也是因為中國是一個非常同質的社會。我們是一個非常多元化的社會，你知道，印度一部分人的思維方式與另一部分人截然不同。我經常在印度旅行，當我從一個邦到另一個邦，當你跨越邊境的那一刻，敘事就會突然改變，人們的思維方式也會改變，他們的飲食習慣也會改變。你知道，中國的文化也在改變。沒有那種中國，這更像是。
在中國，無論你走到哪裏都是同質的，而印度的情況則大體相似。我們非常多元化，所以，這也是為什麽我們走這條路可能非常困難，而且可能永遠不會發生。如果印度政府也做同樣的事情，他們的選舉機會就會岌岌可危。你可以反駁這一點，但我的感覺是，即使在印度，當我們這樣做時，仍然有很多政府會輸掉選舉。所以，印度的情況要複雜得多。你做X，你認為你會得到Y。但嗯，是的，整個想法是，這是一個更加複雜的國家。事實上，中國是一個比印度更容易理解的國家。
There must have been a J curve moment
for China like China would have exploded
after the 80s Yes What were the factors
that went into that rise
Ruchir Sharma
Very simple The government kept getting out of the way
and they gave people more and more
freedom from a very tight control They
gave people more and more economic
freedom much more than in fact the
Indian government gave to to Indians And
that's for me is one of the big
contradictions like for me which is we
called ourselves a democracy We gave
people lots of political freedom Okay
you can vote the way you want to We did
not give people economic freedom There
was so much licenses regulation you know
you can invest there you can't invest
you can't take your money there you
can't do that We were completely
throttled as economic citizens of this
country even though we got lot of
political freedom You can vote China did
the opposite and they got so much
foreigners to come into their country
and they and they invited foreign
investment and said to all the leading
multinationals you come to China you
tell us how to what do you want we'll
make it work for you so it you know that
I think that there there's this contrast
that people don't quite know and the way
they did that was quite impressive they
invited foreigners to come to come and
help them manage their companies to come
and in terms of invest wherever they
wanted so all the McDonald's and Coke
and all they first arrived in China and
they got a complete red carpet that come
and do what you feel like in our country
So we have to think of it very differently uh in terms of what China
did and what India did and India was
much slower in giving its people such
economic freedom Is 2020s India 1990s
China uh in some ways yes economically
yes but again I think that the only
difference here is that China in fact
did a lot more than what what we have
done so far uh in terms of creating the
environment for business to do well uh
you know like in terms of that there was
like there was a complete red carpet for
business I think in this country even
the government sometimes I feel almost
looks at Indian businessmen somewhat as
being a you know like a bunch of crooks
or something and there's a you know like
in terms of it and I feel that this
whole fear of what the investigative
agencies can come and knock on your door
and do all that I think that hurts
business sentiment somewhat So in some
ways it's true that the China of the
1990s you can compare India you know
like is similar I feel very optimistic
about India's growth for the next 101 15
years but I will still caution having
seen what China did China did a lot more
and China was a lot more ruthless that
way in like you know like in India's for
example we still feel that the poor need
to be given a lot of subsidies they need
to give in lot of help and stuff uh or
you know like we that even Mr Modi he's
been very reluctant to change some of
the Congress policies like you know the
col uh you know for example of giving
people farm uh uh in terms of uh uh
loans uh uh or even sort of the mana
right which is uh in terms of giving
people uh employment which the government provides if you can't get
employment and stuff China did nothing
like that they told its poor people you either work or too bad we're
not going to support you in some way So
it was a very ruthless form of what they
did and that's what sort of created the
productivity boom and stuff to do We
have not done what China has done So
it's such an important distinction in
terms of how ruthless China was and here
we are still you know very cautious
about what we do Uh and even this
government you called it right-wing but
from an economic perspective I think
it's more centrist It's not done
anything to change the land or the labor
laws or something the way China did Uh
we haven't done that as yet
Question
Ah okay Perhaps it's a little more
empathetic our government towards the
lower rungs of society China wasn't as
empathetic but then that forced everyone
to either fade away Yeah or get the best
version of themselves to the forefront
and make money for their families Yes
I don't think we'll ever see that in
India though Yes Because the fabric of
our society is very emotional Absolutely
correct Right
Ruchir Sharma
Yes So therefore I'm very careful about when you say China and
India are the same thing But you're so
correct this feeling the social fabric
of a country is very important and you
know China was able to do it It's also
because China is a very homogeneous
society We are a very diverse society
and like you know that that in terms of
the way that one part of India thinks is
so different from another part of India
thinks I I travel in India a lot and I
when I go from one state to another the
moment you cross the border all of a
sudden the narrative changes how people
think changes their eating habits change
uh you know the culture changes in China
you don't have that China it's much more
sort of uh homogeneous everywhere you go
in China is a lot more similar in
India's case we're so diverse so that's
part of the reason why for you know us
to go down that path is possibly
uh very difficult and and may never
happen If an Indian government does the
same thing uh their election chances are
at risk You can argue that but my
feeling is that even in India when we do
that so many governments still lose
elections So it's India is a much more
complicated story that you do X and you
think you'll get Y But uh yeah the whole
idea is that that this is a much more
complicated country China is a in fact
that way a simpler country to understand
than India
