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全球化失敗的五個原因

(2025-05-01 23:12:17) 下一個

我們的“我們”與“他們”的世界:全球化失敗的五個原因

作者:伊恩·布雷默 2018年5月4日
https://time.com/5264653/us-vs-them-globalism-failing/
TOPSHOT-US-POLITICS-TRUMP-BORDERA

特朗普支持者在2017年3月13日於加州聖地亞哥舉行的約500人參加的特朗普支持者集會上揮舞著支持特朗普的標語。Bill Wechter——法新社/蓋蒂圖片社

這個世界正日益兩極分化。分歧不僅在國家之間加劇,在國家內部也日益加深。在我的著作《我們與他們:全球化的失敗》中,我闡述了這種現象發生的原因。以下是將當今世界劃分為“我們”和“他們”的五個關鍵因素。

1. 經濟學

近年來,貧富差距日益擴大的問題備受關注——當世界上42個人的財富與底層50%的人的財富相等時,新聞標題便不言而喻。但關注是一回事,行動是另一回事。

自由貿易仍然是我們所知的促進全球可持續經濟增長的最佳途徑。盡可能高效地運輸商品、服務、投資和創新可以促進消費,形成良性循環,自1980年以來,世界經濟飆升了近700%。全球數億人擺脫了貧困,這主要歸功於全球化。

但並非所有國家和人民都能平等地分享這一良性循環。當為了利潤而將工作和機會轉移到海外時,國家和特定群體的勞動者就會蒙受損失。而當基礎設施支出、公立學校係統、醫療保健等與一個社區的經濟狀況直接掛鉤時,不平等問題就會加劇。經過幾代人的時間——以及英國脫歐的劇烈衝擊和唐納德·特朗普的當選——這一點對於仍然沾沾自喜的歐美全球化贏家來說,變得不可避免地顯而易見。

2. 社會與文化

在全球化的世界裏,人們也跨越國界。當工人們看到自己的生命、生計、地位和福利受到威脅時,他們要求建牆——阻擋廉價勞動力和陌生麵孔——或者你可以稱之為“他們”的那些人。

唐納德·特朗普比他在美國的任何政治對手都更了解這一點。經曆了一場又一場的風暴,盡管他無力在華盛頓“抽幹沼澤”,但他最忠實的支持者仍然堅定地支持他,因為在美國,沒有其他人能夠真正承諾捍衛他們的利益,免受建製派的蔑視。

大多數政客呼籲團結。特朗普卻大談“我們對抗他們”,並繼續從中獲益。

3. 安全

文化差異也滲透到安全領域。全球貿易需要地緣政治穩定。穩定需要領導人願意付出更多,以便其他國家能夠做得更少,而這些領導人會利用手中的權力,強加那些多邊主義進程賴以存在的妥協。

但特朗普擊敗了16名共和黨人和希拉裏·克林頓,因為他承諾美國隻會維護自身利益。他嘲笑那些無休止的、毫無意義的戰爭以及那些為之負責的總統。雖然美國的政治和軍事機構為所有這些戰爭的必要性辯護,但這些戰爭卻是建立在工薪階層美國男女的背上進行的。當他們回國時,他們發現這個世界並不比他們冒著生命危險保衛的世界安全多少。更糟糕的是,他們非但沒有被當作英雄對待,反而在一個功能失調的退伍軍人管理體係中幾乎得不到任何對待。
此外,還有將移民問題與恐怖主義恐懼捆綁在一起的情況。在美國,這種說法多年來一直被政治化,但卻缺乏現實依據。歐洲的情況則截然不同;一些歐洲社區曆來難以融入移民群體,而本土聖戰分子帶來的威脅也實實在在。這些極端分子在巴黎郊區等貧民窟和比利時莫倫貝克等街區被極端化,他們構成了真正的威脅。

4. 科技與過濾泡沫

長期以來,互聯網一直被用來連接在聊天論壇和在線社區中尋找誌同道合者的人們。但隨著社交媒體的出現和爆炸式增長,回音室效應也逐漸盛行。如今,要找到一個與你從根本上不認同的人需要付出努力——人們會被那些與自己價值觀和對社區及世界的看法相同的人所吸引。

然而,人性並非唯一原因。如今,科技和媒體公司通過最大限度地增加你在其平台上與內容互動的時間來增加利潤。算法旨在向你展示那些你期望“點讚”和參與的內容,結果導致受眾群體縮小,這有助於廣告定位和數據收集。其結果是網絡空間的政治分裂日益加劇,而這種分裂在現實世界中隨著每次選舉周期的推進而愈發深刻。

5. 科技與自動化

科技革命尚處於起步階段。人們熱議自動化和人工智能時代的到來。

Our' Us Vs Them' World: 5 Reasons Why Globalism Is Failing

BY IAN BREMMER  
https://time.com/5264653/us-vs-them-globalism-failing/

TOPSHOT-US-POLITICS-TRUMP-BORDERA Trump supporter waves a pro-Trump sign during a pro-Trump rally attended by about 500 people in San Diego, California, March 13, 2017Bill Wechter—AFP/Getty Images

This world is an increasingly polarized place. Divisions are growing not just between countries but within them. In my book Us vs Them: The Failure of Globalism I set out why this is happening now. Here, five key factors dividing today’s world into “us” and “them.”

1. Economics

The growing division of wealth between haves and have-nots has received plenty of attention in recent years—when 42 people in the world have the same wealth as the bottom 50 percent, the headlines write themselves. But attention is one thing, and action another.

Free trade remains the best way we know to spur sustainable economic growth for the world as a whole. Moving goods, services, investment, and innovation as efficiently as possible generates consumption, a virtuous cycle that has seen the world economy soar nearly 700 percent since 1980. Hundreds of millions around the world have escaped poverty, largely thanks to globalization.

But not all countries and peoples share in this virtuous cycle equally. Countries and specific sets of workers lose when jobs and opportunities are sent abroad for the sake of profit margins. And when infrastructure spending, public school systems, health care and the like are tied directly to the economic fortunes of a community, it compounds problems of inequality. It’s taken a couple of generations—and the sharp shock of Brexit plus the election of Donald Trump—for this to become unavoidably obvious for globalization’s still-complacent winners in Europe and the U.S.

2. Society and culture

In a globalized world, people flow across borders too. When workers see threats to their lives, livelihoods, status, and entitlements, they demand walls — barriers against cheap labor and unfamiliar faces—or what you might call “them.”

Donald Trump understood this better than any of his political rivals in the U.S. Through storm after storm, and despite his inability to “drain the swamp” in Washington, his most loyal supporters stick with him, because no one else in the United States can credibly promise to defend their interests against establishment disdain.

Most politicians call for unity. Trump speaks of “us vs them” and continues to reap the rewards.

3. Security

Cultural divides also bleed into the security realm. Global trade demands geopolitical stability. Stability requires leaders willing to do more so others can do less, who use their power to impose the compromises on which multinational progress depends.

But Trump defeated 16 Republicans and Hillary Clinton with promises that America would defend no interests but her own. He derided endless pointless wars and the presidents responsible for them. And while it was America’s political and military establishment that argued for the necessity of all these wars, they were wars waged on the backs of working-class American men and women. When they returned home, they found a world not much safer than the ones they risked their lives to defend. Even worse, instead of being treated as heroes, they were barely treated at all by a dysfunctional veterans administration system.

And then there’s the bundling of immigration concerns with terrorist fears. In the U.S., it’s a narrative that has been politicized for years but has little basis in reality. Europe is another matter; some European communities have historically had a more difficult time integrating immigrant populations, and the threat posed by homegrown jihadi militants, radicalized in slums like the banlieues of Paris and neighborhoods like Molenbeek in Belgium, is all too real.

4. Technology and filter bubbles

The Internet has long been used to connect folks seeking like-minded individuals in chat forums and online communities. But with the advent and explosion of social media, echo chambers took on a life of their own. Today, it takes work to find someone with whom you fundamentally disagree—people gravitate to others who share their values and assumptions about their communities and the world.

Human nature isn’t only to blame, though. Tech and media companies now grow their bottom lines by maximizing the amount of time you spend engaging with content on their platforms. Algorithms are designed to show you content you’re expected to “like” and engage with, with the result being narrower demographic groups that help advertisement targeting and data collection. The result is ever more political fragmentation in the cyber sphere, which manifests itself more profoundly in the real world with each election cycle.

5. Technology and automation

And the tech revolution is still only in its infancy. People talk about the coming era of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) as the “fourth industrial revolution,” placing it (somewhat comfortingly) in historical context. But we’ve never seen anything on the scale of what’s to come—automation and AI are expected to cost 400 to 800 million people their jobs by 2030. T

The world may produce more with robots at the helm, but the economic gains will go mostly to the few who control the technology; hundreds of millions of others will be left with less work to do (if they find work at all). And for all the talk of retraining to prepare people for this automated future, few of those plans have come to fruition. If anything, we should be preparing for a “post-industrial revolution,” one that looks set to widen the chasm between “us” and “them” still further.

And to think that all this fracturing into groups, pitting us against them, is happening at a time when the global economy is growing at a solid clip. In today’s polarized environment, one global economic stumble may be enough to shatter our interconnected world completely.

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