風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
未來展望：特朗普政府領導下的國內和世界秩序的變化
雷·達裏奧 雷·達裏奧 創始人、首席信息官導師、橋水基金董事會成員 2024年11月20日
未來展望：特朗普政府領導下的國內和世界秩序的變化
如今，特朗普領導的右翼陣營以壓倒性優勢擊敗哈裏斯的左翼陣營，以及哈裏斯的多項重要任命已宣布，特朗普險勝並引發選舉紛爭的噩夢已成過去，一幅可能出現的圖景正在浮現。我想明確指出，我所描繪的圖景力求盡可能準確，不帶任何好壞偏見，因為準確性對於以最佳方式做出決策至關重要。
我所看到的圖景是：1）對政府和國內秩序進行大規模革新，旨在使其更高效地運轉，這將包括一場將這一願景轉化為現實的內部政治戰爭；2）“美國優先”的外交政策，並準備與被視為美國最大威脅的中國進行外部戰爭。最近一次類似的時期是20世紀30年代，當時幾個國家都出現了這種做法。
唐納德·特朗普選擇與他一起實現這一目標的人是：埃隆·馬斯克和維韋克·拉馬斯瓦米，他們將負責新提出的政府效率部；馬特·蓋茨，作為司法部長（如果他獲得參議院批準），將突破負責這一新秩序的人的法律界限；羅伯特·肯尼迪，將擔任衛生與公眾服務部部長，徹底改革醫療體係；任命馬可·盧比奧為國務卿，圖爾西·加巴德為國家情報總監，皮特·赫格塞斯為國防部長，他們將領導對抗外國對手的鬥爭。許多其他人——有些可能在政府任職，有些則將擔任外部顧問，例如塔克·卡爾森、史蒂夫·班農和一些特朗普的家人——將與特朗普一起執行任務。他們都是效忠於這位領導人、不惜一切代價取勝的擁護者，他們也都致力於推翻所謂的“深層政府”，建立新的國內秩序，希望以此創造最大的經濟實力並打擊外國敵人。
一旦這些人到位，同樣的任命方式可能會被用來清除政府中那些被指控為“深層政府”一部分、不認同也不忠於這項使命的人。這將擴展到政府係統的所有部門，包括那些此前被認為政治/意識形態控製較少的部門，例如軍隊、司法部、聯邦調查局、證券交易委員會、美聯儲、食品藥品監督管理局、疾病控製與預防中心、國土安全部、內政部以及“F類”政府雇員（候任總統特朗普希望重新引入這一職位分類，以重新劃分某些政府職位，從而取消對公務員的保護）。總統（以及共和黨控製的參議院、眾議院和司法部）能夠控製的幾乎所有任命職位都將受到控製，以便人們與特朗普總統及其新的國內秩序保持一致。在此過程中，政府內外的大多數人都將被視為盟友或敵人，唐納德·特朗普及其盟友掌握的所有權力都將被用來打擊那些阻礙他們改革的敵人。我認為，他們幾乎肯定會對改變國內和世界秩序產生重大影響。這些秩序將會是什麽樣子？
國內秩序的變遷
如今顯而易見的是，唐納德·特朗普及其選出的官員將改革政府和國家，就像企業掠奪者對一家效率低下的公司進行惡意收購一樣，通過更換人員、削減成本和注入新技術，對其進行大規模改革。想想戈登·蓋柯在“貪婪是好事”演講中表達的觀點，同時也要意識到，這番話出自美國總統之口，他將把這種做法應用於中央政府和整個國家。如前所述，曆史上最近的類似案例是20世紀30年代的極右翼各州。需要明確的是，我並不是說特朗普及其政府官員是法西斯主義者，或者會在很多方麵像法西斯領導人那樣行事；我想說的是，為了理解那些如今正以民族主義、保護主義、自上而下、政府主導的經濟和社會政策掌控國家，以及那些對內部反對派缺乏容忍度、深陷國際大國衝突的國家，有必要了解那些在20世紀30年代采取類似政策的國家是如何表現的。
國家極有可能通過旨在提高生產力和效率的產業政策來實現這一目標，而這些政策不會過多地考慮民眾或其他問題——例如環境保護、應對氣候變化、消除貧困或鼓勵多元化、公平和包容——這些問題可能會阻礙這些目標的實現。某些關鍵領域（包括我認為最重要的領域，即教育和債務管理）可能會被忽視（民主黨本來也會忽視這些領域）。隻要特朗普-馬斯克的合作關係持續下去，他們就將是這一新國內秩序的主要設計者和實施者。
這些政策很可能對華爾街、一些科技公司以及大多數受監管困擾、擔心增稅的企業有利。雖然這些實體此前在交易方麵受到諸多限製，但它們將更加自由地擺脫政府的限製。這些變化對金融交易商、銀行和資產管理公司來說將是件好事，因為他們將擁有更多自由、更多資金和信貸，因為資本管製將得到放鬆，美聯儲將麵臨放鬆貨幣政策的壓力。這些政策對支持特朗普的科技公司來說將大有裨益，因為它們將被允許以基本不受約束的方式發展和運營。這些政策對律師來說也同樣有利，因為他們也會非常忙碌。我已經看到，這些人的計劃發生了巨大變化，在特朗普政府的領導下，他們將比在民主黨政府領導下做得更多。此外，人工智能將不再受到像以往那樣的監管，關稅將被用來同時增加稅收和保護國內生產商。如果美聯儲繼續降息（我認為它不應該這樣做），這也會將大量貨幣市場基金和其他存款中的資金轉移到其他市場，這將刺激市場和經濟。
此外，美國正處於一場經濟戰和地緣政治戰之中，並且可能與中國以及俄羅斯、伊朗和朝鮮等其他國家陷入軍事戰爭，這將對國內安全和國內政策產生重大影響。例如，確保美國擁有所有關鍵技術的可接受數量，將導致製定政策，使這些技術在美國製造（例如，到2030年，20%的最先進芯片必須在美國生產）或在盟國製造，這將要求中央政府擁有強有力的、堅持執行的能源和監管政策，以使這些變革得以實現。
變化中的國際秩序
國際秩序將從a) 二戰後由美國及其盟友創建的殘破體係（該體係包含/曾經包含普遍認可的全球行為標準、規則和管理機構，例如聯合國、世界貿易組織、國際法院、國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行等）轉變為b) 一個更加碎片化的世界秩序，美國將奉行“美國優先”政策，明確劃分盟友、敵人和不結盟國家，未來十年經濟和地緣政治戰爭將更加頻繁，軍事戰爭的可能性也將比以往任何時候都更大。換句話說，我們正走向一個由美國主導的時代的終結。在這個時代，各國試圖通過製定指導原則和規則的跨國組織共同探索如何相處，並最終走向一個更加利己主義的叢林法則式的秩序，美國是兩大參與者之一，中國是另一個——這場鬥爭在很大程度上是典型的資本主義與共產主義（以其當代版本）的鬥爭。
因此，受美國道德觀影響的道德和倫理概念將變得不再重要，因為美國將不再是提出和執行這些原則的世界領導者。盟友和敵人的選擇將更多地基於戰術考量，例如交易內容。各國站在哪一邊將是最重要的問題。中國將被視為主要敵人，因為它既是最強大的國家，也是意識形態上最受反對的國家，而俄羅斯、朝鮮和伊朗也是敵人。事實上，中國被廣泛認為是美國最大的威脅，甚至比國內威脅更大。至於其他國家，我現在不想離題闡述它們的立場，但我要說的是，它們現在都被不同程度地劃分為盟友和敵人，這將成為應對它們的指南。不過，我要說的是，目前正在製定針對每個主要國家和每個主要領域的詳細計劃。所有國家都將麵臨巨大的壓力和可能性，以改變其國內秩序，使其與美國保持一致，而不是強硬地對抗。
What's Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration
What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration
Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced, a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging. I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad, because accuracy is what's most important for making decisions in the best possible way.
The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently, which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality, and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China, which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat. The most recent analogous period is the 1930s, when such an approach emerged in several countries.
The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval), will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr., who would radically reform the healthcare system, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. Many, many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump. They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.
Once these people are in place, the same appointment approach will likely be used to purge the government of those accused of being part of the “deep state,” who are not aligned with and loyal to the mission. This will extend to all parts of the government system including those that were previously thought to be less politically/ideologically controlled, such as the military, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Interior, and “Schedule F” government employees (a job classification that President-elect Trump wants to reintroduce to reclassify certain government jobs to remove civil service protections). Most all appointed positions that the president (in conjunction with the Republican-controlled Senate, House, and the Department of Justice) can control will be controlled, to have people aligned with President Trump and his new domestic order in place. In the process of doing this, most everyone in and out of government will be viewed as either an ally or an enemy, and all powers at the disposal of Donald Trump and allies will be used to beat the enemies who are standing in the way of their reforms. I think they will almost certainly have a big impact on changing the domestic and world orders. What will they look like?
The Changing Domestic Order
It is now clear that Donald Trump and those he is choosing will reform government and the country like a corporate raider engaging in a hostile takeover of an inefficient company, making huge reforms to it by changing the people, slashing costs, and infusing it with new technologies. Think of Gordon Gekko and the perspective he conveyed in his “greed is good” speech, while recognizing that this is coming from the president of the United States, who is going to take that approach to the central government and the entire country. As mentioned, the most recent analogous historical cases were the hard-rightist states in the 1930s. To be clear, I am not saying that Trump and those in his government are fascist or will behave as fascist leaders did in many respects; what I am saying is that, in order to understand those who are now taking control with nationalistic, protectionist, top-down, government-led economic and social policies, and who have little tolerance for internal opposition and are embroiled in international great powers conflicts, it is worth understanding how those states with analogous policies in the 1930s behaved.
The economic renovation of the country will, in all likelihood, come via industrial policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency without much worry given to the people or issues— such as taking care of the environment, addressing climate change, remediating poverty, or encouraging diversity, equity, and inclusion—that could stand in the way of these things happening. Certain key areas (including the areas that I think are most important, which are education and debt management) will likely be neglected (and would have also been neglected by the Democrats). For as long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts, they will be the main designers and implementers of this new domestic order.
These policies may well be great for Wall Street and some tech and most businesses that are plagued by regulations and worried about increased taxes. While these entities have been previously restrained in many ways from doing deals, they will be much freer from government constraints. These changes will be great for financial deal makers, banks, and asset managers because they will have more freedom and more money and credit, because capital controls will be eased and the Fed will be pressured to make money easier. These policies will be great for pro-Trump tech companies because they will be allowed to grow and operate in largely unrestrained ways. These policies will also be good for lawyers, who will be busy too. I am already seeing big changes in these people’s plans to do much more under the Trump Administration than they could have done under a Democratic government. Also, AI won’t be as regulated, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously raise tax money and protect domestic producers. If the Fed continues in its path to cut interest rates (which I don’t think it should do), that will also shift a lot of cash that is saved in money market funds and other deposits into other markets, which will be stimulative to markets and the economy.
Also, the realization that the United States is in an economic war and a geopolitical war, and could find itself in a military war, with China as well as with others like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, will have big effects on domestic security and domestic policies. For example, ensuring that the U.S. will have acceptable amounts of all key technologies will lead to policies for these technologies to be made in the U.S. (e.g., 20% of the most advanced chips will have to be produced in the U.S. by 2030) or made in allied countries, which will require the central government to have strong and insist on well-implemented energy and regulatory policies that enable these changes to be made.
The Changing International World Order
The international world order will change from a) the existing tattered remains of the post-World War II system that was created by the U.S. and its allies, in which there are/were generally agreed-upon global standards of behavior, rules, and governing organizations like the UN, WTO, International Court of Justice, IMF, World Bank, etc. to b) a more fragmented world order, in which the United States will pursue an “America First” policy with clear categorizations of allies, enemies, and nonaligned countries, as there will be greater amounts of economic and geopolitical war and a greater-than-ever chance of military war in the next 10 years. In other words, we are now coming to the end of an era led by the United States, in which countries tried to work out together how to be with each other through multinational organizations with guiding principles and rules, and into a more self-interested, law-of-the-jungle-type order with the United States being one of the two biggest players and China the other— and the fight being largely the classic one of capitalism versus communism (in their contemporary versions).
So, concepts of morality and ethics that were shaped by American views of what is moral and ethical will be much less relevant, as the United States will no longer be the world leader in proposing and enforcing these principles. Allies and enemies will be chosen more on the basis of tactical considerations like what the deals will be. The question of which side countries are on will be most important. China will be treated as the primary enemy because it is both the most powerful and the most ideologically opposed, while Russia, North Korea, and Iran are also enemies. In fact, China is widely considered the United States’ single greatest threat, even a greater threat than the domestic threats. As for other countries, I won’t now digress into an explanation of where they stand, but I will say that they all are now categorized as allies and enemies to varying degrees, and this will be a guide for dealing with them. I will, however, say that detailed plans are now being worked out for dealing with each major country and each major subject area. All countries will be given great pressures and possibilities to change their domestic orders to be aligned with, rather than opposed to, the Trump-U.S. leadership and order, and if they don’t get on our side, they will encounter negative consequences. This conflict between the two great powers will create opportunities, most importantly business opportunities, for neutral nonaligned countries.
This change in this world-order dynamic will also have big implications for the developing world (or the “Global South” as it’s now called), and therefore the whole world, because it contains roughly 85% of the world’s population and will likely go its own way, because the U.S. will no longer lead a common world order based on certain ideals and other countries won’t necessarily want to follow the U.S. The U.S. and China will be competing for allies, with China generally believed to be in a much better position to win over nonaligned countries because China is more important economically and does a better job exerting its soft power. Given these changes in the world order, nonaligned countries that 1) are financially strong—i.e., have good income statements and balance sheets, 2) have internal order and capital markets that facilitate people and the country to be productive, and 3) are not in an international war will benefit.
More Specifically, to Elaborate, There Will Be…
…More government influence to achieve the government’s objectives, even if that comes at the expense of our free-market, profit-seeking system, with debates between the conservatives who favor this top-down direction and those who favor the free market more. Along these lines, we should expect more government influence on private markets to achieve the government’s objectives. This is needed to achieve the grand plan to reshape the economy and prepare for war. So, we should keep in mind that cost efficiency and national security achieved by the government working with national-champion companies is the primary objective, not profit-making alone, because profit making won’t achieve those goals. We should pay attention to policy shifts that will drive what areas of the economy will benefit most (e.g., the energy and minerals sectors that support the AI technology sector). While there will be free-market winners, there are obvious cases where the best companies in the United States are not good enough to give the United States what is needed (e.g., in advanced semiconductors), so key relationships with aligned foreign producers (e.g., TSMC in Taiwan) to produce in the U.S. are needed to minimize all dependencies on foreign adversaries. Besides the need to domestically produce essential technologies, there is the need to domestically produce steel, autos, and many other essential items. That will mean more onshoring and friendshoring. There is also a recognized sabotage risk of being cut off in a number of ways that will have to be dealt with.
…A massive deregulatory push in support of cost-efficient production.
…Immigration and deportation actions, with the initial emphasis being on closing the border and deporting undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
…Trade and tariff reform.
…Challenges in assembling and working with U.S. allies. Japan is our most important ally in the geopolitical conflict with China, so what is now happening there politically is important. Other allies are the U.K. and Australia, but they are not great powers. Europe is weak, has its hands full with its own problems, and doesn’t have a dog in this fight, while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support. Most other countries don’t want to get into the fight, as what is being fought for by the United States isn’t as important to them as it is to the United States, and they have more economic dependencies on China than on the U.S. The nonaligned Global South rising powers—which, along with China and Russia, are members of BRICS—are countries to pay attention to.
…The high economic costs of being the dominant world power—i.e., of having the most important technologies, a strong military, and being able to provide soft power—will be greater than the profit-making approach can provide, so how that economic reality will be handled will need to be worked out.
…The need to lower taxes to keep the electorate happy and to keep money in the hands of those who are most productive. Trump and his advisors believe that a lower corporate tax rate than currently exists (around 20%) will raise total taxation and raise productivity. That perspective is good for the markets.
…Significant reforms of the healthcare system.
There is a very limited time—the first 100 days and then the first two years—to get these difficult-to-do things done, so there will have to be vicious prioritization. We don’t yet know what will be prioritized and how successful the new administration will be when the force of its aspirations meets the relatively immovable object of the entrenched system. It certainly will be an interesting and important time, so let’s stay in touch.
The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.
