Ray Dalio 應對不斷變化的世界秩序的原則

《應對不斷變化的世界秩序的原則：國家成敗之道》

雷·達利歐（Ray Dalio） 2021年11月30日

“這本書引人入勝……很少有巨著能像達利歐先生那樣，如此連貫地描繪如此宏大的經濟史。或許更不同尋常的是，達利歐先生成功地從這段曆史中找到了可以應用於理解當今的指標。”——安德魯·羅斯·索爾金，《紐約時報》

《應對不斷變化的世界秩序的原則》出自傳奇投資者雷·達利歐之手，他是《紐約時報》暢銷書排行榜冠軍《原則》的作者，半個世紀以來一直致力於研究全球經濟和市場。本書考察了曆史上最動蕩的經濟和政治時期，揭示了未來可能與我們一生所經曆的截然不同的原因，並提供了如何有效應對這些時期的實用建議。

幾年前，雷·達利歐注意到了他從未遇到過的政治和經濟狀況的交匯。這些因素包括巨額債務和零利率或接近零利率，導致世界三大儲備貨幣大量印鈔；由於100多年來最大的財富、政治和價值觀差距，各國內部，尤其是美國，發生了巨大的政治和社會衝突；以及世界強國（中國）的崛起，挑戰現有的世界強國（美國）和世界秩序。上一次發生這種匯合是在1930年至1945年之間。這一認識促使達利歐開始尋找過去500年來所有重大財富和權力變化背後的重複模式和因果關係。

在達利歐“原則”係列的這本精彩且及時的著作中，達利歐帶領讀者一起研究包括荷蘭、英國和美國在內的主要帝國，並透視曆史上驅動世界所有主要國家成敗的“大周期”。他揭示了這些轉變背後永恒而普遍的力量，並利用它們展望未來，為未來的定位提供實用的原則。

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail  

Nov. 30 2021 by Ray Dalio (Author)

“A provocative read...There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times

From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.

A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, due to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.

In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.