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這是日益分裂的世界經濟中的美國與中國之爭
2023 年 11 月 8 日，作者：Gabriel Malheiros
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e
2023 年 11 月 3 日，文章《日益分裂的世界經濟中的美國與中國之爭》表明，中國去年秋天跨過了一個重要的裏程碑：自四十多年前經濟開放以來，中國與發展中國家的貿易額首次超過美國、歐洲和日本的總和。這是迄今為止最明顯的跡象之一，表明隨著貿易、技術、安全和其他棘手問題的緊張局勢加劇，中國和西方正在走向不同的方向。
幾十年來，美國和其他西方國家一直試圖讓中國成為由最富裕國家主導的單一全球經濟中的合作夥伴和客戶。現在，貿易和投資流動正在形成圍繞兩個相互競爭的權力中心建立的新模式。
在這個日益分裂的世界經濟中，華盛頓繼續通過投資限製和出口禁令加大對中國的壓力，而中國則將其經濟的大部分從西方轉向發展中國家。
對美國和歐洲的好處包括減少對中國供應鏈的依賴，並為美國人和歐洲人提供更多就業機會，否則這些就業機會可能會流向中國。但存在重大風險，例如全球經濟增長放緩——許多經濟學家擔心西方和中國的成本將超過優勢。
隨著雙方投入更多資源，這些戰略越來越難以瓦解。
中國工廠正在用來自國內或發展中國家的化學品、零部件和機床取代西方的化學品、零部件和機床。2019 年，中國與東南亞的貿易額超過了與美國的貿易額。中國現在與俄羅斯的貿易額超過了與德國的貿易額，很快與巴西的貿易額也將達到同樣的水平。
中國的對外投資現在主要流向資源豐富的地區，如印度尼西亞或中東，而不是美國。
包括蘋果、Stellantis 和惠普在內的西方大公司正在尋求將生產從中國轉移。紅杉資本等金融公司已采取行動，限製或保護其在華業務。
接受美中貿易全國委員會調查的美國公司中，超過三分之一表示，過去一年他們減少或暫停了對華投資計劃，這一數字創曆史新高，遠高於去年的 22%。
“世界正在分裂成相互競爭的領域，”紐約谘詢公司 Rhodium Group 高級顧問 Noah Barkin 表示。“這種勢頭……在某種程度上是自我推動的。但風險在於，隨著時間的推移，這種勢頭會加速，政府將更難以應對。”
增長緩慢
國際貨幣基金組織 10 月份表示，中國與西方之間的分裂正在拖累今年的世界經濟複蘇。IMF 的研究表明，美國和中國主導的集團之間更嚴重的分裂可能會使全球經濟損失高達國內生產總值的 7%，價值數萬億美元。
經濟分裂使企業無法進入能夠帶來利潤的重要市場，也使得分享技術和資本變得更加困難，從而抑製了增長。
成本已經對大公司產生了影響，尤其是德國等歐洲國家，這些國家近幾十年來通過向中國銷售汽車和高端機械而蓬勃發展。據中國汽車工業協會稱，隨著中國品牌的擴張，大眾和豐田等德國和日本汽車製造商目前在中國汽車市場的份額約為 30%，低於三年前的近 50%。
It's US vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy
Nov, 08, 2023 by Gabriel Malheiros
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e
Nov. 3, 2023, article It’s U.S. vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy indicates that China passed a significant milestone last fall: For the first time since its economic opening more than four decades ago, it traded more with developing countries than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined. It was one of the clearest signs yet that China and the West are going in different directions as tensions increase over trade, technology, security and other thorny issues.
For decades, the U.S. and other Western countries sought to make China both a partner and a customer in a single global economy led by the richest nations. Now trade and investment flows are settling into new patterns built around the two competing power centers.
In this increasingly divided world economy, Washington continues to raise the heat on China with investment curbs and export bans, while China reorients large parts of its economy away from the West toward the developing world.
Benefits for the U.S. and Europe include less reliance on Chinese supply chains and more jobs for Americans and Europeans that otherwise might go to China. But there are major risks, such as slower global growth—and many economists worry the costs for both the West and China will outweigh the advantages.
The strategies are growing harder to unravel as both sides sink more resources into them.
Chinese factories are replacing Western chemicals, parts and machine tools with those from home or sourced from developing nations. China’s trade with Southeast Asia surpassed its trade with the U.S. in 2019. China now trades more with Russia than it does with Germany, and soon will be able to say the same about Brazil.
China’s outbound investment now mainly goes to resource-rich places like Indonesia or the Middle East, rather than to the U.S.
Major Western companies including Apple, Stellantis and HP are looking to shift production from China. Financial firms like Sequoia Capital have moved to curb or ringfence their China activities.
More than one-third of U.S. companies surveyed by the U.S. China Business Council, which represents American companies in China, said they’ve reduced or paused planned investment in China over the past year, a record high and well above 22% last year.
“The world is splintering into rival spheres,” said Noah Barkin, senior adviser with Rhodium Group, a New York-based advisory firm. “There is a momentum…that in a way is self-propelling. There is a risk it accelerates over time and becomes more difficult for governments to manage.”
Slow Growth
The International Monetary Fund said in October that fragmentation between China and the West was weighing on the world’s economic recovery this year. A more severe break between U.S.- and China-led blocs could cost the global economy as much as 7% of gross domestic product, worth trillions of dollars, IMF research suggests.
The economic split deprives companies of access to vital markets that drive profits and makes it harder to share technology and capital, depressing growth.
Costs are already adding up for major companies, especially in European nations like Germany, which thrived in recent decades by selling autos and high-end machinery to China. German and Japanese automakers like Volkswagen and Toyota now account for about 30% of China’s auto market, down from almost 50% three years ago, as Chinese brands have expanded, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
To read the full, original text, please refer to: https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e
