Yanis Varoufakis 中國如何打贏與美國的冷戰

中國如何打贏與美國的冷戰，這裏有四點建議 | 亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯

How China Can Win the Cold War with the U.S., Here are Four Suggestions | Yanis Varoufakis

Thinkers Forum 2024年11月15日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao&t=59s

在這場長達30多分鍾的演講中，希臘前財政部長亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯闡述了他對當前中美競爭性質的理解，以及他對中國如何反擊美國遏製中美競爭的努力的建議。

遏製中國、扼殺中國是他們的共同點，他們隻是在如何最好地做到這一點上意見不一，是通過烏克蘭戰爭，還是像特朗普所說的那樣，烏克蘭戰爭和中國的騙局，非常感謝，感謝你們給我這個機會進行一次親密的閉門討論，這樣我們就可以暢所欲言了，所以我要直奔主題，因為我的話題我認為是目前人類最緊迫的問題，美國對中國發動的新冷戰，這不是共同的責任，這是華盛頓特區對中國發動冷戰的決定，它始於唐納德·特朗普，早在奧巴馬政府時期就已經在醞釀，但在喬·拜登的領導下得到了成倍的加強，我之所以說這是人類最緊迫的問題，是因為我們正迅速走向核對抗的邊緣，而美國當局明知故犯，製造了真正的核對抗，問題是為什麽第一個問題，一旦我們進行了分析，當然還有第二個問題，同樣重要的是，我們該怎麽做呢？我非常樂意把美國和英國的記者，特別是作為宣傳機器一部分的記者，你知道《金融時報》、《衛報》、《華盛頓郵報》將他們置於一個困難的境地，提出一個非常簡單的問題，為什麽美國要對中國宣布一場新的冷戰，他們首先說的是台灣，我對他們說台灣怎麽樣，中國人想接管台灣，我說他們一直想接管台灣，有什麽新鮮事，我的意思是，北京一直認為台灣是中國的一個省，在某個時候，他們會像香港一樣承擔責任，不是嗎？理查德·尼克鬆在 1971 年訪問北京與中國交朋友時知道嗎？克林頓在將中國引入世界貿易組織時不知道嗎？為什麽台灣不是問題？現在發生了什麽變化，他們看著我，哦，是的，中國在監視我們，美國國家安全局在監視你，我有 CI，這是事實，這條線知??道我們有美國國家安全局對我的手機進行三點監聽，這三點意味著如果我和你說話，你就被監視了，如果你和你的妻子說話，你的妻子就是間諜，如果你的妻子和你的孩子說話，你就被監視了，你的孩子，我知道他們告訴過我，所以我不相信中國人在監視方麵和美國國家安全局一樣好，我的意思是美國國家安全局在監聽德國總理安格拉·默克爾的談話，這是被揭露的，然後你知道當安格拉·默克爾被告知這件事時，她立即說，好吧，你想讓我說大聲點，這樣你就能聽得更清楚，所以現在這不是問題，突然間中國正在開發監控技術，我希望中國正在開發監控方法，因為你知道，如果你被監視了，你需要反擊，這是唯一的方法，我的一個好朋友，我對此感到非常自豪，這可能會讓你們中的一些人感到震驚，他是維基解密的朱利安·阿桑奇，朱利安·阿桑奇是一個非常勇敢的人，他曾經對我說，呃，你會怎麽對待B老大哥你能阻止老大哥嗎？你所做的就是開發技術，這樣當他監視你時，你也能監視他，所以反監視是應對監視的唯一方法，這樣他們就知道你知道他們知道這對於保持任何程度的自治都是必不可少的，所以我希望中國正在發展其對抗美國國家安全局監視的能力，嗯，這是個笑話，我的意思是，當美國國家安全局的人聽到《華爾街日報》的記者說新一輪 C 戰爭的原因是中國正在攻擊美國時，他們笑得前仰後合，然後我聽到其他愚蠢的答案，比如你知道中國人正在建造海軍艦艇，他們正在投射海軍力量，嗯，我會相信這一點，我的意思是，當然，你正在建造海軍艦艇，你正在擴大你的經濟，你正在擴大
你投射自己力量的能力，這是至關重要的，這是每個國家都必須做的，如果它尊重自己的利益，但當我看到聖地亞哥和洛杉磯外的中國船隻和中國軍事基地時，我會擔心
中國帝國主義直到我們發現這是荒謬的
隻要看看太平洋地圖，你就會發現美國到處都有基地，為中國製造咽喉點，這是他們40年來的官方政策，他們竟然厚顏無恥地說中國是一個威脅，因為， 無論如何，中國已經浪費了足夠多的時間在這些對新冷戰的非解釋上，現在你可能已經聽說過，嗯，我不會提及他，但美國更老練的分析師會援引所謂的 FUSD 陷阱或因此詛咒它，用非常 V 的術語來說，如果你生活在一個無政府的世界裏，如果你是一個孩子，一個男孩，你去上學，學校很粗暴，有很多惡霸，你應該成為最大和最卑鄙的惡霸，這是美國地緣政治憤世嫉俗的現實主義思想流派，美國在這個無政府的世界裏，因為他們並不真正相信上帝，他們不相信上帝會幫助他們，他們認為他們必須成為世界上最卑鄙最大的惡霸，才能保衛自己作為一個國家的生存和繁榮，這將取決於他們欺負其他人的能力，以及防止任何變得過於自大的人成為同樣大小的惡霸，他們會對你說，他們世界各地都有惡霸，比如日本帝國、德國帝國、蘇聯，而美國成功做到的是有效地消滅他們，消滅他們，讓他們走開，現在中國正在崛起，中國是下一個，因此，對於這種經曆，一場新的冷戰，現在毫無疑問，美國的深層國家，我毫不懷疑，美國不是一個民主國家，它是一個寡頭政治，選舉為這個一黨製國家繼續存在提供了合法性，當我說一黨製國家時，我的意思是一黨製國家，呃，舉個例子，維多利亞·紐，你可能熟悉這位華盛頓建製派的外交官，維多利亞·紐為比爾·克林頓工作，她為喬治·W·布什工作，她在克林頓手下工作，她在特朗普手下工作，毫無疑問，她將再次為 11 月獲勝的人工作，維多利亞·紐就是美國單一國家深層國家的一個例子，現在，深層國家單一政黨建製美國沿著兩條線分裂不同的
相互衝突的觀點，既不是對中國來說的好消息，也不是更聰明的
細致入微的思想，在學術界，芝加哥大學的非常聰明的人約翰·米默 (John M mimer) 代表了這種觀點，他們非常批評華盛頓無法將注意力集中在必要的事情上，以及他們的過度擴張，他們認為美國正在過度擴張，所以他們非常批評美國在戰爭中的作用，首先是通過維多利亞和通過 2014 年針對當時烏克蘭總統維克多·亞努科維奇的 kud 創造環境，他們創建了一個 kudeta，以便在種族上清洗烏克蘭東部的俄語使用者，以激怒普京，在 2014 年對烏克蘭發動第一階段的戰爭，從而推動北約在斯堪的納維亞半島以及格魯吉亞和烏克蘭的擴張，所以這種務實的觀點隻是說我們不應該這樣做是因為這樣我們就會把俄羅斯推向中國的懷抱尼克鬆政府的全部目的是分裂蘇聯和中國，從而贏得冷戰，所以他們批評烏克蘭和以色列的支持，因為他們認為這隻會迷惑美國的政策，它會在美國敵人之間建立聯盟，比如俄羅斯和中國、伊朗和俄羅斯之間的聯盟等等，這是愚蠢的政治，因為敵人是中國，中國需要被遏製，如果你問他們為什麽中國需要被遏製，中國沒有帝國主義的曆史，中國絕對沒有興趣在美國墨西哥邊境建立軍事基地，把海軍力量和專業力量帶到聖地亞哥、洛杉磯或舊金山，中國不想要中國想要貿易，你知道他們說什麽是的，我們同意，但如果我們讓中國成為太平洋地區的區域超級大國，在自己的後院，如果我們允許中國在南海和印度洋地區占據主導地位海洋
那麽中國將來就會開始嚐試做我們已經做過的事情，他們
將成為西半球的一股帝國主義力量，對他們來說，美國人就是這樣說的，他們明白中國不是帝國主義的，但他們擔心，如果他們不通過印度尼西亞北部的咽喉要道來遏製中國，你知道
第一組島嶼，第二組島嶼，中國和菲律賓之間，那麽中國
就會效仿美國，因此你最好通過扼殺中國來防止這種情況發生，所以這是一條論據，第二條論據是相反的論據，即美國必須是世界各地包括歐洲和烏克蘭在內的欺淩者，例如，我曾聽布什政府中位高權重的人說過，他在指揮鏈中位居很高布魯塞爾的北約秘書長，一位美國共和黨人，他對我說，我們需要擴大北約，這違背了歐洲人的利益，他顯然違背了歐洲人的利益，我問他為什麽，鮑勃，他說有三個原因，首先，因為我們必須在歐洲，美國，我們要保持自己，第一個原因，他告訴我，第二個原因，就是壓製德國人，看看今天德國的電價，烏克蘭戰爭的結果，德國的工業機器完蛋了，不僅僅是因為這個，這是原因之一，第三，為了把俄羅斯拒之門外，所以這是，如果你在華盛頓特區的權力走廊裏，你會聽到這樣的討論，遏製中國，扼殺中國是他們所有人的共同點，他們隻是在如何最好地做到這一點上存在分歧，是通過烏克蘭戰爭來實現的，還是像特朗普所說的那樣，烏克蘭戰爭和中國的騙局，到目前為止，我向你展示的，或多或少是任何曾經參與過的人的常識在華盛頓，在布魯塞爾，和這些人交談，和冷戰戰士交談，和新冷戰戰士交談，這是眾所周知的，但我認為，我到目前為止給你講的故事是不完整的，為什麽克林頓政府和之後的布什政府在與中國的貿易上如此熱衷，為什麽他們不在20世紀90年代，也就是2000年，2004年，2005年，2008年對中國發動新冷戰，為什麽直到2014年左右，這個機構才決定對中國發動戰爭，不是因為他們，一種解釋是，克林頓政府的人看不到中國會發展到如此大的程度，我不相信，我從不相信那些假設相關人員愚蠢的解釋，我不相信這些人是愚蠢的，我不相信他們沒有看到這一點，通過將美國製造業的一半轉移到中國西海岸，對不起，中國東海岸你知道中國
不會發展壯大，他們知道這一點，他們為此而慶祝，我記得
多年來，人們一直說資本主義很棒，因為看看中國，它引入了
市場經濟，然後他們就成為了超級大國，所以他們知道他們想要它，為什麽他們現在不想要它，為什麽
突然出現扼殺點和遏製，你知道，把靴子踩在他們脖子上，對我來說，真正改變的是什麽
美國對中國發動新冷戰的本質
順便說一句，歐洲無關緊要，歐洲隻是按照吩咐去做
歐洲不想對中國發動冷戰，但你知道他們收到了來自
華盛頓特區的電子郵件，他們這樣做違背了他們的利益，違背了他們的意願，所以不要在乎
歐洲人，這是華盛頓，如果你
我們像亨利·基辛格這樣的戰略思想家，他現在已經死了，但你知道這是深思熟慮的美國
官員的例子，你真正擔心的是什麽，因為我提到了基辛格，讓我先說一下，那是 1970 年，當時基辛格正在為尼克鬆總統工作，你還記得，他當時不是外交部長，也不是國務院官員，他是國家安全委員會主席，也是美國總統的國家安全顧問，他一生都是美國戰略思想的縮影，一黨製國家的思想，美國的深層政府，當他看到宏觀經濟統計數據時，他發現從 1968 年開始，美國自 1930 年代以來首次成為赤字國家，這是它曆史上第一次成為赤字國家，因為它在競標戰爭期間成為超級大國或重要大國，當然，自 1950 年代以來，它是唯一的經濟超級大國，美國從一個貿易順差國家滑落到貿易逆差，這孩子很擔心，因為他知道從曆史上看基辛格說，每一個從盈餘變成赤字的帝國都開始衰落，所以他召集了國家安全委員會的人，問了他們一個簡單的問題，既然我們是赤字國家，我們該怎麽做才能保持我們的霸權，他說，讓人們去思考這個問題，我希望你們每個人寫半頁紙，非常有趣，不是20頁，半頁，不是一頁，半頁，這就是基辛格的工作方式，這些人非常聰明，他們中的大多數人回來後給出了一個非常德國式的答案，如果我們有赤字，我們必須削減開支，我們必須提高利率等等，以減少進口，實現進出口平衡，消除我們的貿易赤字，一個人在他的半頁紙上寫下了這句話，我實際上是在15年前寫一本書的過程中獲得的rs 前打字寫
打字了半頁他說我們必須做什麽我們必須將我們的赤字增加三倍我們的赤字我們有赤字這是不好的我們必須使它擴大三倍並讓世界其他國家的資本家為此買單這正是發生的事情美國應該增加赤字並用它來創造對德國和日本以及後來的中國淨出口的總需求因為美國的貿易赤字吸收了美國你的鋁你的電動汽車赤字美元就像我一樣你知道當人們問保羅·沃卡寧但這不會影響美元的價值他說不隻要它是唯一的世界儲備貨幣唯一有需求的貨幣人們需要它即使他們不想從生產它的國家購買任何東西印刷它所以如果你今天是一個與紅發人相當的人那麽你就知道為什麽美國如此霸權為什麽它能夠承受成為世界大欺淩是因為支付係統的壟斷，讓我給你舉個例子，呃，當我們在中國進行這次談話時，特朗普當選，因為他非常討厭奧巴馬，他想推翻奧巴馬非常自豪的東西，奧巴馬對兩件事感到非常自豪，那就是奧巴馬醫改和西方與伊朗就伊朗核計劃達成的協議，以及終止製裁，這是伊朗、美國和整個歐盟熱情簽署的，特朗普想要摧毀這項協議，隻是因為他討厭奧巴馬，所以他拿起與伊朗的協議，把它撕毀，德國總理安格拉·默克爾非常惱火，因為她和奧巴馬一起努力促成了與伊朗的協議，她德國企業已經在伊朗進行談判進入伊朗，伊朗是一個充滿機遇的土地，多年來對像德國這樣的大型企業集團實施了製裁，特別是在能源、消費品和汽車製造方麵他們都準備好了加入，特朗普說不，默克爾出來了
並舉行了針對美國總統的新聞發布會，這是史無前例的，並不經常發生，她說我不知道??美國會怎麽做，我們尊重
他們的意見和立場，但德國將維持與伊朗的和平協議，德國企業將繼續在這項國際協議的基礎上在伊朗做生意，我們將在 12 小時內履行這項協議，每個德國企業集團的首席執行官都站出來表示，不是我們，我們不加入，我們退出，我們將跟隨美國人
為什麽這真的很簡單，因為他們依賴於他們對美國的淨出口，特朗普政府威脅他們，他們不會從減稅中受益，特朗普帶來的企業稅削減
他對他們說，你想從他們那裏受益，就不要在伊朗做生意，你想保持對美元支付係統的使用權，不要與伊朗做生意，所以德國國會集團在德國總理舉行新聞發布會的第二天，德國領導人轉而反對她
實際上是在說對不起，總理，我們將與特朗普總統站在一起，違背他們在伊朗和歐洲的經濟利益，這正是他們現在正在做的事情，你知道美國和烏克蘭聯手轟炸北溪管道，每周給德國工業造成數十億美元的損失
你聽過德國工業說什麽嗎？什麽也沒有，因為他們依賴美國的貿易逆差
但這整件事讓美國的貿易逆差像吸塵器一樣運轉，吸進美國的德國、法國、日本和中國的淨出口，你需要美元來保持壟斷地位，壟斷交易體係，因為隻有交易壟斷，美國人才能繼續沒有資金的赤字
然後你看看我所說的美國和中國的雲資本的崛起
雲資本我說的是算法資本，大科技就是建立在算法資本之上的，這是一種新的資本形式，因為與其他形式的資本不同，總是一種生產資料一種生產出來的生產資料
機器人、拖拉機是你為了生產其他東西而生產的東西這不是一種生產資料
這是一種生產手段一種人工行為修改手段這就是阿裏巴巴這就是抖音這就是10cent這就是亞馬遜
穀歌Facebook等等它們是創造非市場平台的資本品看起來像市場但不是市場允許雲資本的所有者將我們帶入買家作為賣家、影響者、輿論製造者、娛樂消費者，並向我們所有人收取租金，這是雲資本的所有權賦予雲資本所有者的巨大權力，現在世界上有兩個國家擁有大量集中的雲資本，一個是美國，另一個是中國，你們之所以在這裏擁有它，是因為你禁止了矽穀，歐洲沒有禁止矽穀，所以我們都依賴穀歌、Facebook 元所有這些，我們沒有開發自己的雲資本，所以那裏有美國雲資本，中國雲資本，中國雲資本比美國雲資本有優勢，這是你必須明白的，不是因為我的意思是你的技術並不比美國人好，在某些方麵你已經超越了美國的能力，但在其他方麵，美國人比你更大、更好、更快，不，這不是你的技術優勢，而是政治優勢和組織優勢，在中國，中國人民銀行，中國中央銀行控製著美國的銀行家銀行家控製著中央銀行，他們擁有中央銀行，他們創建了中央銀行
美國中央銀行，美聯儲是由 JB Morgan 創建的，而不是
相反，好吧，了解我們國家和美國之間的製度差異很重要
美國是一個非常非常奇怪的地方，所以雲資本矽穀
美國的金融業不合作，Apple pay 存在，Google pay
存在，所以就像我們一樣，你可以通過 Apple pay 支付，但其中很大一部分錢會作為租金流向華爾街，所以
存在一種階級戰爭，或者說是階級戰爭
在西海岸的華爾街和西海岸的雲資本之間，他們正在發生衝突，這種衝突不會發生在中國，因為你們的金融部門
和你們的大型科技或雲資本部門都在共產黨的領導下，我非常誠實和坦率地告訴你，
這是件好事，這是一個優勢，但如果你坐在華盛頓，
特別是在烏克蘭戰爭之後，特別是在你的中央銀行創建數字貨幣之後一、數字技術是一項了不起的發明，你應該珍惜它，你應該使用它，你應該發展它，我們討論過如何做到這一點，你的國家已經為金錢建造了一條數字超級高速公路，它比搖搖欲墜的道路要先進得多，那就是美元之路，因為今天超級高速公路沒有使用，就像你知道，想象一下你在這裏有過這樣的經曆，你修建了一條兩邊各有五條車道的高速公路，但路上沒有多少車，這就是現在你的數字支付係統正在發生的事情，而美國的道路非常古老，到處都是坑坑窪窪，隻有兩條車道，而不是五條車道，交通繁忙，因為所有的資本主義利潤和貿易都是通過那條舊公路上的交易來融資的，但已經有人從美國高速公路遷移到中國超級高速公路，這是從俄羅斯人開始的，這就是烏克蘭的戰爭，如果你是沙特阿拉伯人，好吧，你是沙特阿拉伯寡頭，你的大部分生意都是和美國做的，你知道你愛你的美元，但你在想這些人，美國人沒收了俄羅斯的 4000 億美元，因為他們不喜歡俄羅斯人，不管是什麽，也許俄羅斯人應得的，這並不重要，我在這裏沒有提出道德觀點，好吧，你認為你是沙特阿拉伯人，我自己也不是一個很好的人，也許他們明天不會喜歡我，也許我明天會做一些事情來惹惱他們，也許他們會參與我的 d 對吧，所以我為什麽不把一些錢分散一下，我會通過中國人修建的高速公路進行交易，你為什麽認為沙特阿拉伯有興趣加入磚塊，這就是原因，沒有其他原因，這就是原因，現在回到你正在看的那個，你認為這些中國人修建的這條高速公路對我的德國是一個明顯而現實的危險，這就是為什麽他們有籌碼行動，因為他們想減少你投資這條高速公路的能力，並讓它對其他所有人都有吸引力，這就是為什麽他們創造扼殺任何外部人士的情況，美國想與中國進行貿易因為他們不想要這條高速公路，所以不是中國變得更大，不是中國在進行間諜活動，不是台灣，而是中國已經建立了基於數字雲資本的支付高速公路，這對美元支付係統的壟斷是一個明顯而巨大的危險，而美元支付係統的壟斷是美國霸權的唯一原因，所以問題是我們該怎麽做，請允許我很快說四件事，然後我停止這個，然後我們可以進一步討論，你需要做的第一件事是你必須減少對美國貿易赤字的依賴，但請允許我作為一名微觀經濟學家說，你隻能這樣做，如果你增加這個國家的工資份額，這些錢最終會落入工人階級、小人物和這個國家的中產階級的口袋，因為從微觀經濟的角度來說，在五年計劃下，不可能在不依賴美國貿易赤字的情況下，對製造業進行必要的投資，以實現五年計劃的增長率，維持這種投資和保持增長率的唯一方法是在不依賴美國貿易赤字的情況下，通過提高國內總需求，有簡單的方法可以做到這一點，你的數字支付係統就是其中一種方式，如果你願意的話，我可以稍後再討論，這是你需要做的第一件事，減少對美國貿易赤字的依賴，其次，你需要通過軟實力來吸引當地社區，在埃塞俄比亞建造工廠或一些基礎設施或一些能源中心或者在納米比亞，或者

任何有助於當地國家發展的地方，但你必須與當地社區互動，你必須接受，是的，你必須

記住，納米比亞、剛果、埃塞俄比亞都存在階級衝突，當地

統治階級正在摧毀當地工人階級和中國人的前景，我知道你不想幹涉政黨政治，但

你必須讓納米比亞人民明白，中國、中國企業和中國存在是他們的盟友，而不是寡頭政治的盟友，這就是你贏得非洲人心的方法，你需要在歐洲做同樣的事情，因為在歐洲，保守派正努力讓歐洲人民反對中國人，就像純粹的種族主義、仇外心理、東方主義等等，正是那些讓意大利人、希臘人、法國人、德國人反對中國人的人，本質上就是在努力

減少德國人和法國人的生活前景意大利人和希臘人，所以當例如 Costco 進入福斯港時，我知道他們管理港口比希臘人更好，我知道那裏腐敗現象減少了，我知道港口工人的工作條件現在更好了，但 Costco 犯了一個錯誤，沒有參與社區關係，這是第三件事，好吧，嗯，第四件事，美國的軟實力，我們必須一起思考，我說我們我不是中國人，但我有興趣結束冷戰，因為避免核對抗符合人類的利益，其次是找到一種溝通和合作的方式來結束人類快速走向氣候災難的進程，沒有合作就不可能發生，我們無法成功拯救我們的星球，所以這就是為什麽我說我們與美國進步人士接觸很重要，比如我給你舉個例子，美國的民主社會主義者在美國變得相當有影響力，他們中的許多人都是我的朋友就像伯尼·桑德斯一樣，他們被建製派卷入了
反華思維，讓他們回來很重要，因為他們不明白貿易戰是階級戰爭，如果你這樣對他們說，如果我們這樣對他們說，他們就有可能理解，一旦你對中國發動貿易戰，美國工人階級就會受到影響，一些工作可能會通過關稅來挽救，如果他們重新創造一些製造業工作，但那是行不通的，那是行不通的，這不是你知道你阻止幾輛比亞迪汽車進入美國，俄亥俄州就會突然出現更多製造業工作的情況，那是愚蠢的，但我們需要說服美國的進步人士，他們的利益在於緩和美國和中國之間的新冷戰，謝謝

How China Can Win the Cold War with the U.S., Here are Four Suggestions | Yanis Varoufakis

Thinkers Forum 2024年11月15日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao&t=59s
  
In this more than 30-minute speech, former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis elaborated on his understanding of the nature of the current U.S.-China competition, as well as his suggestions on how China can counter U.S. efforts to contain it.

the containment of China the choking of China is common ground for all of them they simply disagree on how to do it best whether to do it through the war in Ukraine or As Trump suggests and the war in Ukraine and con of China well thank you so much and thank
you for this opportunity to have um an intimate closed door discussion so that
um we can speak freely so I'm going to cut to the chase because my topic I think is the most uh pressing issue for Humanity at the moment the new cold war that the United States
Unleashed against China this is not a shared responsibility it is a decision by Washington DC to unleash a cold war against China it started with Donald Trump it was already in the making from the Obama Administration but it has been reinforced exponentially under Joe Biden and the reason why I'm saying that this is the most pressing issue for Humanity is because we are being quick marched towards the precipice of a nuclear confrontation that the United States authorities knowingly are making a real
possibility and the question is why the first question and once we go through the analysis then of course the second question and of equal importance is so what do we do about it I enjoy very much placing American and British in particular journalists who are part of this propaganda machine you know Financial Times Guardian Washington
Post placing them in the difficult position with a very simple question why
why is the United States declaring essentially a new Cold War against CH
China and the first the first the first word that comes out of their mouth is
Taiwan and I said to them what about Taiwan said well the Chinese want to take it over well I said they always wanted to take it over what's new I mean it was
always the position of Beijing that Taiwan is a province of China and at
some point they will have to fall under the fault like Hong Kong did didn't
Richard Nixon know that in 1971 when he was visiting Beijing making friends with China didn't Clinton know that when he was inducting China into the World Trade Organization why wasn't Taiwan a problem then what has changed now they they look
at me oh yeah well China is spying on us the NSA spying on you the CI I have and
that is the truth and the line knows this we have a three-point NSA tap on me
my phone that is three points means that if I talk to you you spied on if you
talk to your wife your wife is spy don't if your wife talks to your child your spy your your child so I I know that they've told me that so I don't believe the Chinese are as good as the NSA at spying I mean the NSA was listening in to Chancellor Angela Merkel this was revealed and then you know when Angela Merkel was told that immediately she said okay do you want me to speak louder so you can hear hear me better so it wasn't a problem right now suddenly that China is developing surveillance and I hope China is developing
surveillance methods because you know if if you're being spied on you need to spy back on it's the only way my one of my great friends and I'm very proud of that that may shock some of you is Julian Assange of WikiLeaks and Julian Assange a very brave man said to me once uh that what do you do with B Big Brother how do you stop Big Brother well what you do is you develop the technology so that you spy on him while he's spying on you so counter surveillance is the only way of dealing with surveillance so that they
know that you know that they know this is essential for maintaining any degree
of autonomy so I hope China is developing its capacity to counter the surveillance of the
NSA um and it's a joke I mean the people in the NSA are laughing the heads off
when they hear journalists from The Wall Street Journal saying that the reason for the new C war is that China is fing
on the on the Americans and then I hear other idiotic answers like you know the
the Chinese are building Naval vessels uh they are projecting Naval power well
I will believe this I mean of course you're building Naval vessels you're expanding your economy you're expanding
your capacity to um project your own power that is essential that's what
every every country must do if it respects its own interests but I'm going to be worried
about Chinese imperialism when I see
Chinese vessels outside San Diego and Los Angeles and Chinese army
bases next to El Paso on the US Mexican border until we see that it is ludicrous
you just look at the map of the Pacific and you see American bases everywhere
creating choke points for China and this is their official policy for 40 years and they have the audacity to say that
China is a threat because China is anyway enough time wasted on these non-
explanations of the new Cold War now you may have heard of um well I won't
mention him yet the more sophisticated analysts in the United States would
invoke the so-called FUSD trap or thusi curse that to put it in very um V terms
if you live in an anarchic world if you are a child a boy and you go to school
with a very rough school and there are lots of bullies you should be the biggest and
nastiest bully that is the cynical realist school of thought of American
geopolitics that America in this anarchic world because they don't really believe in God they don't believe that
it's a God that will help them they think that they must be the nastiest biggest bully in the world in order to
defend themselves their survival as a nation and their prosperity will depend on their capacity to bully everybody
else and from preventing anyone who is getting too big for their boots to become an equally sized bully and they
will say to you that they wear bullies around the world like for instance Imperial Japan Imperial Germany the
Soviet Union and what the United states have succeeded in doing is effectively
eliminating them annihilating them getting them out of the way and that now China is rising China is next and
therefore for that experience a new Cold War now there's no doubt that the Deep
state in the United States I make no mistake the United States is not a democracy it's an oligarchy with
elections that are providing the legitimacy for this one party state to
continue to exist and when I say one party State I mean one party State uh
take for instance Victoria newand you may be familiar with this Diplomat of the
Washington establishment Victoria nand worked for Bill Clinton she worked for
George W bush she worked under Clinton she worked under Trump and no
doubt she was going to work again for whoever wins in November Victoria nand is an example of
the single state deep state of the United States now that deep State single
party establishment United States is split along the line of two different
conflicting views neither which of which is good news for
China there is the the more intelligent
nuanced line of thinking that which in Academia is uh represented by that very
intelligent man from the University of Chicago John M mimer the view is this
they they are very critical of the inability of
Washington to focus Fus on what is necessary and
their overreach they think that the United States is overreaching so they
are very critical of the war of the United States role in firstly through
Victoria nand creating the circumstances through the kud against Victor yanukovich the
then president of Ukraine in 2014 they created a kudeta in
order ethnically to cleanse Russian speakers from the Eastern side of
Ukraine in order to provoke Putin into
the first stage of war in 2014 against Ukraine so as to push for NATO expansion
in uh Scandinavia and of course Georgia
and Ukraine and so this pragmatic Viewpoint simply says that we shouldn't
be doing this because that way we we are pushing Russia into the arms of
China the whole point of the Nixon Administration was to split the Soviet
Union from China and therefore win the Cold War so they're
critical of the support of Ukraine and of
Israel because they think that this simply disorient the United States
policy it creates alliances amongst Americans enemies like alliances between
Russia and China Iran and Russia and so on and that this is silly politics
because the enemy is China and China needs to be contained and if you ask them why does China need to be
contained China doesn't have a history of imperialism China has absolutely no interest in uh building military bases
on the US Mexican border in taking you know Naval power and Pro in it to San
Diego or Los Angeles or San Francisco China doesn't want that China wants to trade you know what they say yes we
agree but if we let China become a regional
superpower in the Pacific area in its own area in its backyard if we allow
China for instance to become dominant in the South China Sea and in the Indian Ocean
then China in the future will start trying to do what we have done and they
will become an imperialistic force in the western hemisphere which for them is
the Americans this is what they say they understand that China is not imperialistic but they fear that if they
do not contain China through choke points just north of Indonesia you know
the first array of islands the second array of islands between China and the Philippines and so then China
will emulate the United States and therefore you better prevent that by
choking China today so that's one line line of argument the second line of
argument is the opposite argument that the United States must be a bully
everywhere all over the world including in Europe including the Ukraine and that
for instance I I have been told that by somebody who was very high up in the Bush
Administration and who was very high up in the chain of command of NATO in Brussels an American Republican he said
to me that we need to expand NATO against the interest of of the Europeans he was clear against the
interest of the Europeans and I said to him Bob why he said because of three reasons first because we must be in
Europe the United States we to keep ourselves in number one reason he gave
me number two to keep the Germans down look at the price of electricity in
Germany today as a result of the war in Ukraine the German industrial machine is finished kaput as a result not just of
that but that is one of the reasons and thirdly to keep the Russ out so this is
you know if you were in the corridors of power in Washington DC this is the discussion you would hear
the containment of China the choking of China is common ground for all of them they
simply disagree on how to do it best whether to do it through the war in Ukraine or As Trump suggests and the war
in Ukraine and con of China well this so far what I have presented to you is more
or less common knowledge amongst anyone who's ever been in Washington been in
Brussels spoken to these people to the cold Warriors to the new cold Warriors this is common knowledge but I think
that that story that I've given you so far is incomplete why did the Clinton
Administration and the Bush Administration after that were so gangho about trading with China why did they
not start the new Cold War against China in the 1990s in the year 2000 in
2004 2005 200 8 why was it only around
2014 that this establishment decided to unleash the war against China it's not that they one explanation is that the
Clinton Administration people could not see that China would develop to the extent that China developed that it
would become so big I don't believe that I never believe explanations which
presume the stupidity of the people involved I don't believe that these people were stupid and I don't believe
that they didn't see that by shifting half of American manufacturing to the
West Coast of China sorry to the east coast of China that you know that China
would not grow and develop they knew it they were celebrating it I remember you
know for years hearing that you know capitalism is fantastic because look at China the moment it introduced the
market economy so and they become a superpower so they knew it that they wanted it why don't they want it now why
is it suddenly choking points and containment and you know putting a boot
on their neck what what really changed for
me the essence of the pursuit of a new Cold War
against China by the United States by the way Europe is irrelevant Europe is
simply doing as it's told Europe doesn't want to unleash a cold war against China but you know they get the email from
Washington DC do it and they do it against their interest and against their wishes so don't care about the the
Europeans it's Washington if you
we somebody like you know a strategic thinker like
Henry Kissinger who is now dead but you know this is the example of the deep thinking American
official what would you really be worried about since I mentioned Kissinger let
me stick to him for a moment the year was
1970 Kissinger at the time who was working for President Nixon you'll
recall was not the foreign minister was not in the is the state department yet
he was the head of the National Security Council and he was the National Security advisor to the American president and he
was the epitome all his life of American strategic thinking the thinking of that
one party State the Deep state of the United States being a smart man when he
saw the macroeconomic statistics and he saw that from 1968 from 1968 onwards America for the
first time since the 1930s had become a deficit country for
the first time in its history since it became a superpower or an important power in the bid War period and
certainly since the 1950s when it was the only superpower in terms of economic
superpower the United States slipped from being a surplus country from having a surplus in its trade balance uh to
having a deficit and kid was worried because he knew that historically speaking
every Empire that went from being a surplus to a deficit economic entity
started fading so he got together his people at the National Security Council and he
asked them a simple question how should we what should we do in order to retain our
hegemony now that we are a deficit country and he said to the people go
away and think about it and I want from each one of you half a page of a
note very interesting right not 20 Pages half a page not a page half a page this
is how Kissinger worked and these were very smart people right most of them
came back and gave a very Germanic answer if we have a deficit we must cut
down expenditure we must increase uh interest rates and so on and so forth in
order to reduce Imports and bring about a balance between exports and imports to
eliminate our trade deficit one man in his half a page which
I actually acquired in the process of writing a book 15 years ago typ written
a typewritten half a page he said what we must do we must treble our
deficit treble our deficit we have a deficit which is bad we must make it three times as big and make the
capitalists of the rest of the world pay for it which is exactly what happened the
United States should increase its deficit and use it to create aggregate
demand for the net exports of Germany and Japan and later on China because it
is the trade deficit of the United States that sucks into the United States
your aluminum your electric vehicles deficit dollars like I
us and you know when people ask Paul vulkanen but will that not affect the
value of the dollar he said no not as long as it is the only World Reserve currency the only
currency that has demand people demand it even if they don't want to buy anything from the country which is
producing it which is printing it so if you are today somebody of a mind
comparable to gingers then you know that the reason why the
United States is so hegemonic why it can afford to be the big bully around the world is because of
the Monopoly of the payment system and let me give you an example which I gave
uh when we with way way were having this conversation at China today China now
China now now today um when Trump was
elected because he hated Obama so deeply he wanted to take down something that Obama was very proud of Obama was very
proud of two things Obamacare and the agreement between the
west and Iran over the nuclear program of Iran and the ending of the sanctions
which was signed by Iran by the United States and by the whole of the European Union enthusiastically
and Trump wanted to destroy that agreement just because he hated Obama so he takes the agreement with Iran and
tees it up tears it up the chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel was very annoyed
because she had worked very hard together with Obama to bring about that
agreement with Iran and she German businesses were
already in negotiations in Iran to enter Iran Iran is a land of opportunity after
so many years of sanctions for large conglomerates like the German ones especially when it came to energy to
Consumer products to car manufacturing they were all ready to get in and Trump says no Merkel comes out
and gives a press conference against the president of the United States this is unprecedented that doesn't happen
often and she says I do not know what the United States will do we respect
their opinion and their position position but Germany is going to maintain the agreement the peace
agreement with Iran and German businesses will continue to do business in Iran on the basis of this
International agreement which we are going to fulfill and which we are going to honor within 12 hours every single
CEO of every German conglomerate came out and said not us we're not in we're out we will follow the Americans
why it's really very simple because they depended on their net exports to the
United States and the Trump Administration threatened them that they
would not benefit from the tax cuts the corporate the the reductions in the corporate tax that Trump was bringing in
he said to them you want to benefit from them no business in Iran you want to maintain your access to the dollar
payment system no business with Iran so the German Cong con glomerate leaders
turned against the German Chancellor the day after she gave a press conference
effectively saying sorry Chancellor we are going with President Trump on this against their own Financial interests in
Iran and in Europe which is exactly what they're doing now you know the United States together with Ukraine bomb the
pipeline northstream one that costs billions every week for German industry
have you heard a German industry say anything nothing because they are dependent on the American trade deficit
but this whole thing for the trade deficit of the United States to function
as a vacuum cleaner that sucks into the United States the net exports of Germany
of France of Japan and of China you need the dollar to
remain the Monopoly the monopolistic transaction system because it is only
the monop of transactions that allows the Americans to
continue with unfinanced unfunded deficits
then you look at the rise of what I call Cloud capital in the United States and
China by Cloud Capital I'm talking about what lives in here the algorithmic capital on which
big Tech is built which is a new form of capital because unlike like other forms
of capital which are always a means of production a produced means of
production a robot a tractor is something you produce to produce something else this is not a produced
means of production it's a produced means an artificial means of Behavioral
modification that's what Alibaba is that's what Tik Tok is that is what 10cent is that is what of course Amazon
Google Facebook and so on they are capital goods that create nonm
markets platforms that look like markets but are not markets which allow the
owner of that cloud Capital to bring us in as buyers as Sellers as influencers
as opinion makers as simply consumers of entertainment and charge all of us a
form of rent that's enormous power that the ownership of this Cloud Capital
confers to the owners of cloud Capital now there are two countries in the world
that have a lot of concentrated Cloud Capital One is the United States and the other is China and the reason why you
have it here is because you banned Silicon Valley Europe didn't ban Silicon Valley so we all depend on Google
Facebook meta all that and we didn't develop our own cloud Capital so there's American Cloud Capital there Chinese
Capital Cloud Capital Chinese Cloud Capital has an advantage over American Cloud Capital this is something you've
got to understand not so much because I mean your technology is not better than the
Americans in some things you have gone beyond American capabilities but in
other things the Americans are bigger and better and faster than you are at this stage no it's not a technological
advantage that you have it is a political advantage and an organizational advantage here in
China The People's Bank the Central Bank of China controls the bankers in the
United States the bankers control the central bank they own the central bank they created the Central Bank the
Central Bank of the United States the Federal Reserve was created by JB Morgan it was not the
other way around okay it's important to understand the institutional differences between our countries and the United
States the United States is a very very strange place so Cloud Capital Silicon Valley in the
United States and finance don't work together Apple pay exists Google pay
exists so like wej you can pay through Apple pay but a large segment of that money goes to Wall Street as a rent so
there is a class like something like class war between or a fudal l war
between the fom of Wall Street on the West CO east coast and the fom of cloud
capital on the west coast they're clashing that Clash doesn't happen in China because both your Finance sector
and your big Tech or Cloud Capital sector are under the Communist party I'm being very honest and Frank with you and
that's a good thing that is an advantage but if you sitting in Washington
especially after the war in Ukraine especially after your Central Bank created the digital one
the digital one is a fantastic invention you should treasure it and you should use it and you should develop it and we
have discussions about how to do this your country has built a digital Super
Highway for money which is much much more advanced than the rickety road that is the
American dollar road cuz today that super wi highway is not used it's like
you know imagine you have you've had this experience here you build a highway five Lanes each side but not many cars
are going on it that's what's happening now with your digital payment system and
the American road which is very old full of poth holes two lanes not five it's
full of traffic because all the capitalist profits and trade is being
financed through transactions on that old highway but already there's a
migration from the American Highway to the Chinese Super Highway it started
with Russians that's what the Ukraine wared and then if you're a Saudi
Arabian okay you're a Saudi Arabian an oligarch you do most of your business
with the United States you you know you love your dollars but you're thinking these people the Americans confiscated
400 billion of the Russians money because they didn't like the Russians
for whatever it is maybe the Russians deserve it doesn't matter I'm not making an ethical Point here okay you think
you're Saudi Arabian I'm not a very good person myself maybe they will not like me tomorrow maybe I will do something to
annoy them tomorrow maybe they will take part of my d right so why don't I diversify some of that money I will
transact through the Super Highway that the Chinese have built why do you think Saudi Arabia is interested in joining the bricks that's the reason there's no
other reason that is the reason now go back to what you're looking at that and you think this super highway that these
Chinese have built is a clear and present danger to my Germany that's why they have the chips
act because they want to reduce Your Capacity to invest in this super highway
and make it attractive for everybody else this is why they are creating circumstances of choking anyone outside
the United States wants to trade with China because they don't want this Super Highway way so it's not that China is
getting bigger it is not that China is spying it is not Taiwan it is that China
has built a digital Cloud Capital based super highway for payments which is a
clear and prais danger to the Monopoly of the dollar payment system which is the only reason why the United States is
hegemonic so the question is what do we do about that allow me just to say four things very quickly and then I stop this
and then we can take this up further the first thing you need to do is you must
reduce your dependency on the American trade deficit but allow me as a microeconomist to say that you can only
do this is if you increase the weage
share in this country the amount of money which is essentially ending up in
the pockets of the working class the working class and the petty Bui and the middle class in this country because
micro economically speaking it is impossible under the Cent 5year plan to
have the degree of investment in manufacturing that is
necessary in order to meet the growth rates of the 5year plan without depending on the American
trade deficit the only way of maintaining this investment and maintaining the growth rate without
dependency of the American trade deficit is by boosting aggregate demand domestically and there are simple ways
of doing that and your digital payment system is a way of doing it I can
discuss this later if you want that's number one thing you need to do reduce your dependency of the American trade deficit secondly you need to
appeal through soft power through
engagement with the local communities in the global south building a factory or
some infrastructure or some some energy Hub in Ethiopia or in Namibia or
wherever it contributes to the development of the local country but you've got to engage with the local community you have to take yeah you have
to remember your marks that there is class conflict happening in Namibia in the Congo in Ethiopia and the local
ruling class is destroying the prospects of the local working class and the
Chinese I know you don't want to interfere in a party political level but
you have to gr you the people of Namibia must understand that China and Chinese
business and the Chinese presence are their allies not the allies of their oligarchy that's how you win hearts and
Minds in Africa you need to do the same in Europe because in Europe there is a
conservative effort to turn the people of Europe against the Chinese along the lines of pure racism
xenophobia orientalism and so on the same people who are turning the the the
Italians the Greeks the French the Germans against the Chinese are the people who are essentially working
towards the diminution of the life prospects of the Germans the French the
Italians and the Greeks so when for instance Costco entered the port of fos
I know it that they run the port better than the Greeks did I know that there is less corrup corruption and I know that
the work the conditions of the workers in the port are better now but cost made a mistake by not engaging in community
relations that's um the third thing okay um and the fourth
thing soft power within the United States we must think to together and I
say we I'm not Chinese but I have an interest in ending the Cold
War uh because it is in the interest of humanity to avoid firstly nuclear
confrontation and secondly to find a way of communicating and collaborating to end
the very fast March of humanity towards a climate catastrophe without
cooperation it can't happen we cannot succeed in saving our planet so this is
why I'm saying we it is important to approach American progressors like I
give you an example the Democratic socialists of America who are becoming have become rather
influential in the United States many of them are my friends people like Bernie Sanders they have been sucked into the
anti-chinese mindset by The Establishment it is important to bring them
back because they don't understand that trade Wars are class Wars if you put it
to them that way if we put it to them that way there's a chance that they will understand it that the moment you have a
trade War being imposed on China the American working class is going to suffer some jobs may be saved through
tariffs if they recreate some manufacturing job but that won't work
that is not going to work it is not a situation where you know you stop a few
byd cars from coming to the United States and suddenly there will be more manufacturing jobs in Ohio that is
idiocy but we need to convince the progressives in the United States that
they interests are in deescalate the new cold war between United States and China
thank you

How China Can Win the Cold War with the U.S., Here are Four Suggestions | Yanis Varoufakis

Thinkers Forum 2024年11月15日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao&t=59s
中國如何打贏與美國的冷戰，這裏有四點建議 | 亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯

思想者論壇 2024年11月15日
在這場長達30多分鍾的演講中，希臘前財政部長亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯闡述了他對當前中美競爭性質的理解，以及他對中國如何反擊美國遏製中美競爭的努力的建議。

遏製中國、扼殺中國是他們的共同點，他們隻是在如何最好地做到這一點上意見不一，是通過烏克蘭戰爭，還是像特朗普所說的那樣，烏克蘭戰爭和中國的騙局，非常感謝，感謝你們給我這個機會進行一次親密的閉門討論，這樣我們就可以暢所欲言了，所以我要直奔主題，因為我的話題我認為是目前人類最緊迫的問題，美國對中國發動的新冷戰，這不是共同的責任，這是華盛頓特區對中國發動冷戰的決定，它始於唐納德·特朗普，早在奧巴馬政府時期就已經在醞釀，但在喬·拜登的領導下得到了成倍的加強，我之所以說這是人類最緊迫的問題，是因為我們正迅速走向核對抗的邊緣，而美國當局明知故犯，製造了真正的核對抗，問題是為什麽第一個問題，一旦我們進行了分析，當然還有第二個問題，同樣重要的是，我們該怎麽做呢？我非常樂意把美國和英國的記者，特別是作為宣傳機器一部分的記者，你知道《金融時報》、《衛報》、《華盛頓郵報》將他們置於一個困難的境地，提出一個非常簡單的問題，為什麽美國要對中國宣布一場新的冷戰，他們首先說的是台灣，我對他們說台灣怎麽樣，中國人想接管台灣，我說他們一直想接管台灣，有什麽新鮮事，我的意思是，北京一直認為台灣是中國的一個省，在某個時候，他們會像香港一樣承擔責任，不是嗎？理查德·尼克鬆在 1971 年訪問北京與中國交朋友時知道嗎？克林頓在將中國引入世界貿易組織時不知道嗎？為什麽台灣不是問題？現在發生了什麽變化，他們看著我，哦，是的，中國在監視我們，美國國家安全局在監視你，我有 CI，這是事實，這條線知??道我們有美國國家安全局對我的手機進行三點監聽，這三點意味著如果我和你說話，你就被監視了，如果你和你的妻子說話，你的妻子就是間諜，如果你的妻子和你的孩子說話，你就被監視了，你的孩子，我知道他們告訴過我，所以我不相信中國人在監視方麵和美國國家安全局一樣好，我的意思是美國國家安全局在監聽德國總理安格拉·默克爾的談話，這是被揭露的，然後你知道當安格拉·默克爾被告知這件事時，她立即說，好吧，你想讓我說大聲點，這樣你就能聽得更清楚，所以現在這不是問題，突然間中國正在開發監控技術，我希望中國正在開發監控方法，因為你知道，如果你被監視了，你需要反擊，這是唯一的方法，我的一個好朋友，我對此感到非常自豪，這可能會讓你們中的一些人感到震驚，他是維基解密的朱利安·阿桑奇，朱利安·阿桑奇是一個非常勇敢的人，他曾經對我說，呃，你會怎麽對待B老大哥你能阻止老大哥嗎？你所做的就是開發技術，這樣當他監視你時，你也能監視他，所以反監視是應對監視的唯一方法，這樣他們就知道你知道他們知道這對於保持任何程度的自治都是必不可少的，所以我希望中國正在發展其對抗美國國家安全局監視的能力，嗯，這是個笑話，我的意思是，當美國國家安全局的人聽到《華爾街日報》的記者說新一輪 C 戰爭的原因是中國正在攻擊美國時，他們笑得前仰後合，然後我聽到其他愚蠢的答案，比如你知道中國人正在建造海軍艦艇，他們正在投射海軍力量，嗯，我會相信這一點，我的意思是，當然，你正在建造海軍艦艇，你正在擴大你的經濟，你正在擴大
你投射自己力量的能力，這是至關重要的，這是每個國家都必須做的，如果它尊重自己的利益，但當我看到聖地亞哥和洛杉磯外的中國船隻和中國軍事基地時，我會擔心
中國帝國主義直到我們發現這是荒謬的
隻要看看太平洋地圖，你就會發現美國到處都有基地，為中國製造咽喉點，這是他們40年來的官方政策，他們竟然厚顏無恥地說中國是一個威脅，因為， 無論如何，中國已經浪費了足夠多的時間在這些對新冷戰的非解釋上，現在你可能已經聽說過，嗯，我不會提及他，但美國更老練的分析師會援引所謂的 FUSD 陷阱或因此詛咒它，用非常 V 的術語來說，如果你生活在一個無政府的世界裏，如果你是一個孩子，一個男孩，你去上學，學校很粗暴，有很多惡霸，你應該成為最大和最卑鄙的惡霸，這是美國地緣政治憤世嫉俗的現實主義思想流派，美國在這個無政府的世界裏，因為他們並不真正相信上帝，他們不相信上帝會幫助他們，他們認為他們必須成為世界上最卑鄙最大的惡霸，才能保衛自己作為一個國家的生存和繁榮，這將取決於他們欺負其他人的能力，以及防止任何變得過於自大的人成為同樣大小的惡霸，他們會對你說，他們世界各地都有惡霸，比如日本帝國、德國帝國、蘇聯，而美國成功做到的是有效地消滅他們，消滅他們，讓他們走開，現在中國正在崛起，中國是下一個，因此，對於這種經曆，一場新的冷戰，現在毫無疑問，美國的深層國家，我毫不懷疑，美國不是一個民主國家，它是一個寡頭政治，選舉為這個一黨製國家繼續存在提供了合法性，當我說一黨製國家時，我的意思是一黨製國家，呃，舉個例子，維多利亞·紐，你可能熟悉這位華盛頓建製派的外交官，維多利亞·紐為比爾·克林頓工作，她為喬治·W·布什工作，她在克林頓手下工作，她在特朗普手下工作，毫無疑問，她將再次為 11 月獲勝的人工作，維多利亞·紐就是美國單一國家深層國家的一個例子，現在，深層國家單一政黨建製美國沿著兩條線分裂不同的
相互衝突的觀點，既不是對中國來說的好消息，也不是更聰明的
細致入微的思想，在學術界，芝加哥大學的非常聰明的人約翰·米默 (John M mimer) 代表了這種觀點，他們非常批評華盛頓無法將注意力集中在必要的事情上，以及他們的過度擴張，他們認為美國正在過度擴張，所以他們非常批評美國在戰爭中的作用，首先是通過維多利亞和通過 2014 年針對當時烏克蘭總統維克多·亞努科維奇的 kud 創造環境，他們創建了一個 kudeta，以便在種族上清洗烏克蘭東部的俄語使用者，以激怒普京，在 2014 年對烏克蘭發動第一階段的戰爭，從而推動北約在斯堪的納維亞半島以及格魯吉亞和烏克蘭的擴張，所以這種務實的觀點隻是說我們不應該這樣做是因為這樣我們就會把俄羅斯推向中國的懷抱尼克鬆政府的全部目的是分裂蘇聯和中國，從而贏得冷戰，所以他們批評烏克蘭和以色列的支持，因為他們認為這隻會迷惑美國的政策，它會在美國敵人之間建立聯盟，比如俄羅斯和中國、伊朗和俄羅斯之間的聯盟等等，這是愚蠢的政治，因為敵人是中國，中國需要被遏製，如果你問他們為什麽中國需要被遏製，中國沒有帝國主義的曆史，中國絕對沒有興趣在美國墨西哥邊境建立軍事基地，把海軍力量和專業力量帶到聖地亞哥、洛杉磯或舊金山，中國不想要中國想要貿易，你知道他們說什麽是的，我們同意，但如果我們讓中國成為太平洋地區的區域超級大國，在自己的後院，如果我們允許中國在南海和印度洋地區占據主導地位海洋
那麽中國將來就會開始嚐試做我們已經做過的事情，他們
將成為西半球的一股帝國主義力量，對他們來說，美國人就是這樣說的，他們明白中國不是帝國主義的，但他們擔心，如果他們不通過印度尼西亞北部的咽喉要道來遏製中國，你知道
第一組島嶼，第二組島嶼，中國和菲律賓之間，那麽中國
就會效仿美國，因此你最好通過扼殺中國來防止這種情況發生，所以這是一條論據，第二條論據是相反的論據，即美國必須是世界各地包括歐洲和烏克蘭在內的欺淩者，例如，我曾聽布什政府中位高權重的人說過，他在指揮鏈中位居很高布魯塞爾的北約秘書長，一位美國共和黨人，他對我說，我們需要擴大北約，這違背了歐洲人的利益，他顯然違背了歐洲人的利益，我問他為什麽，鮑勃，他說有三個原因，首先，因為我們必須在歐洲，美國，我們要保持自己，第一個原因，他告訴我，第二個原因，就是壓製德國人，看看今天德國的電價，烏克蘭戰爭的結果，德國的工業機器完蛋了，不僅僅是因為這個，這是原因之一，第三，為了把俄羅斯拒之門外，所以這是，如果你在華盛頓特區的權力走廊裏，你會聽到這樣的討論，遏製中國，扼殺中國是他們所有人的共同點，他們隻是在如何最好地做到這一點上存在分歧，是通過烏克蘭戰爭來實現的，還是像特朗普所說的那樣，烏克蘭戰爭和中國的騙局，到目前為止，我向你展示的，或多或少是任何曾經參與過的人的常識在華盛頓，在布魯塞爾，和這些人交談，和冷戰戰士交談，和新冷戰戰士交談，這是眾所周知的，但我認為，我到目前為止給你講的故事是不完整的，為什麽克林頓政府和之後的布什政府在與中國的貿易上如此熱衷，為什麽他們不在20世紀90年代，也就是2000年，2004年，2005年，2008年對中國發動新冷戰，為什麽直到2014年左右，這個機構才決定對中國發動戰爭，不是因為他們，一種解釋是，克林頓政府的人看不到中國會發展到如此大的程度，我不相信，我從不相信那些假設相關人員愚蠢的解釋，我不相信這些人是愚蠢的，我不相信他們沒有看到這一點，通過將美國製造業的一半轉移到中國西海岸，對不起，中國東海岸你知道中國
不會發展壯大，他們知道這一點，他們為此而慶祝，我記得
多年來，人們一直說資本主義很棒，因為看看中國，它引入了
市場經濟，然後他們就成為了超級大國，所以他們知道他們想要它，為什麽他們現在不想要它，為什麽
突然出現扼殺點和遏製，你知道，把靴子踩在他們脖子上，對我來說，真正改變的是什麽
美國對中國發動新冷戰的本質
順便說一句，歐洲無關緊要，歐洲隻是按照吩咐去做
歐洲不想對中國發動冷戰，但你知道他們收到了來自
華盛頓特區的電子郵件，他們這樣做違背了他們的利益，違背了他們的意願，所以不要在乎
歐洲人，這是華盛頓，如果你
我們像亨利·基辛格這樣的戰略思想家，他現在已經死了，但你知道這是深思熟慮的美國
官員的例子，你真正擔心的是什麽，因為我提到了基辛格，讓我先說一下，那是 1970 年，當時基辛格正在為尼克鬆總統工作，你還記得，他當時不是外交部長，也不是國務院官員，他是國家安全委員會主席，也是美國總統的國家安全顧問，他一生都是美國戰略思想的縮影，一黨製國家的思想，美國的深層政府，當他看到宏觀經濟統計數據時，他發現從 1968 年開始，美國自 1930 年代以來首次成為赤字國家，這是它曆史上第一次成為赤字國家，因為它在競標戰爭期間成為超級大國或重要大國，當然，自 1950 年代以來，它是唯一的經濟超級大國，美國從一個貿易順差國家滑落到貿易逆差，這孩子很擔心，因為他知道從曆史上看基辛格說，每一個從盈餘變成赤字的帝國都開始衰落，所以他召集了國家安全委員會的人，問了他們一個簡單的問題，既然我們是赤字國家，我們該怎麽做才能保持我們的霸權，他說，讓人們去思考這個問題，我希望你們每個人寫半頁紙，非常有趣，不是20頁，半頁，不是一頁，半頁，這就是基辛格的工作方式，這些人非常聰明，他們中的大多數人回來後給出了一個非常德國式的答案，如果我們有赤字，我們必須削減開支，我們必須提高利率等等，以減少進口，實現進出口平衡，消除我們的貿易赤字，一個人在他的半頁紙上寫下了這句話，我實際上是在15年前寫一本書的過程中獲得的rs 前打字寫
打字了半頁他說我們必須做什麽我們必須將我們的赤字增加三倍我們的赤字我們有赤字這是不好的我們必須使它擴大三倍並讓世界其他國家的資本家為此買單這正是發生的事情美國應該增加赤字並用它來創造對德國和日本以及後來的中國淨出口的總需求因為美國的貿易赤字吸收了美國你的鋁你的電動汽車赤字美元就像我一樣你知道當人們問保羅·沃卡寧但這不會影響美元的價值他說不隻要它是唯一的世界儲備貨幣唯一有需求的貨幣人們需要它即使他們不想從生產它的國家購買任何東西印刷它所以如果你今天是一個與紅發人相當的人那麽你就知道為什麽美國如此霸權為什麽它能夠承受成為世界大欺淩是因為支付係統的壟斷，讓我給你舉個例子，呃，當我們在中國進行這次談話時，特朗普當選，因為他非常討厭奧巴馬，他想推翻奧巴馬非常自豪的東西，奧巴馬對兩件事感到非常自豪，那就是奧巴馬醫改和西方與伊朗就伊朗核計劃達成的協議，以及終止製裁，這是伊朗、美國和整個歐盟熱情簽署的，特朗普想要摧毀這項協議，隻是因為他討厭奧巴馬，所以他拿起與伊朗的協議，把它撕毀，德國總理安格拉·默克爾非常惱火，因為她和奧巴馬一起努力促成了與伊朗的協議，她德國企業已經在伊朗進行談判進入伊朗，伊朗是一個充滿機遇的土地，多年來對像德國這樣的大型企業集團實施了製裁，特別是在能源、消費品和汽車製造方麵他們都準備好了加入，特朗普說不，默克爾出來了
並舉行了針對美國總統的新聞發布會，這是史無前例的，並不經常發生，她說我不知道??美國會怎麽做，我們尊重
他們的意見和立場，但德國將維持與伊朗的和平協議，德國企業將繼續在這項國際協議的基礎上在伊朗做生意，我們將在 12 小時內履行這項協議，每個德國企業集團的首席執行官都站出來表示，不是我們，我們不加入，我們退出，我們將跟隨美國人
為什麽這真的很簡單，因為他們依賴於他們對美國的淨出口，特朗普政府威脅他們，他們不會從減稅中受益，特朗普帶來的企業稅削減
他對他們說，你想從他們那裏受益，就不要在伊朗做生意，你想保持對美元支付係統的使用權，不要與伊朗做生意，所以德國國會集團在德國總理舉行新聞發布會的第二天，德國領導人轉而反對她
實際上是在說對不起，總理，我們將與特朗普總統站在一起，違背他們在伊朗和歐洲的經濟利益，這正是他們現在正在做的事情，你知道美國和烏克蘭聯手轟炸北溪管道，每周給德國工業造成數十億美元的損失
你聽過德國工業說什麽嗎？什麽也沒有，因為他們依賴美國的貿易逆差
但這整件事讓美國的貿易逆差像吸塵器一樣運轉，吸進美國的德國、法國、日本和中國的淨出口，你需要美元來保持壟斷地位，壟斷交易體係，因為隻有交易壟斷，美國人才能繼續沒有資金的赤字
然後你看看我所說的美國和中國的雲資本的崛起
雲資本我說的是算法資本，大科技就是建立在算法資本之上的，這是一種新的資本形式，因為與其他形式的資本不同，總是一種生產資料一種生產出來的生產資料
機器人、拖拉機是你為了生產其他東西而生產的東西這不是一種生產資料
這是一種生產手段一種人工行為修改手段這就是阿裏巴巴這就是抖音這就是10cent這就是亞馬遜
穀歌Facebook等等它們是創造非市場平台的資本品看起來像市場但不是市場允許雲資本的所有者將我們帶入買家作為賣家、影響者、輿論製造者、娛樂消費者，並向我們所有人收取租金，這是雲資本的所有權賦予雲資本所有者的巨大權力，現在世界上有兩個國家擁有大量集中的雲資本，一個是美國，另一個是中國，你們之所以在這裏擁有它，是因為你禁止了矽穀，歐洲沒有禁止矽穀，所以我們都依賴穀歌、Facebook 元所有這些，我們沒有開發自己的雲資本，所以那裏有美國雲資本，中國雲資本，中國雲資本比美國雲資本有優勢，這是你必須明白的，不是因為我的意思是你的技術並不比美國人好，在某些方麵你已經超越了美國的能力，但在其他方麵，美國人比你更大、更好、更快，不，這不是你的技術優勢，而是政治優勢和組織優勢，在中國，中國人民銀行，中國中央銀行控製著美國的銀行家銀行家控製著中央銀行，他們擁有中央銀行，他們創建了中央銀行
美國中央銀行，美聯儲是由 JB Morgan 創建的，而不是
相反，好吧，了解我們國家和美國之間的製度差異很重要
美國是一個非常非常奇怪的地方，所以雲資本矽穀
美國的金融業不合作，Apple pay 存在，Google pay
存在，所以就像我們一樣，你可以通過 Apple pay 支付，但其中很大一部分錢會作為租金流向華爾街，所以
存在一種階級戰爭，或者說是階級戰爭
在西海岸的華爾街和西海岸的雲資本之間，他們正在發生衝突，這種衝突不會發生在中國，因為你們的金融部門
和你們的大型科技或雲資本部門都在共產黨的領導下，我非常誠實和坦率地告訴你，
這是件好事，這是一個優勢，但如果你坐在華盛頓，
特別是在烏克蘭戰爭之後，特別是在你的中央銀行創建數字貨幣之後一、數字技術是一項了不起的發明，你應該珍惜它，你應該使用它，你應該發展它，我們討論過如何做到這一點，你的國家已經為金錢建造了一條數字超級高速公路，它比搖搖欲墜的道路要先進得多，那就是美元之路，因為今天超級高速公路沒有使用，就像你知道，想象一下你在這裏有過這樣的經曆，你修建了一條兩邊各有五條車道的高速公路，但路上沒有多少車，這就是現在你的數字支付係統正在發生的事情，而美國的道路非常古老，到處都是坑坑窪窪，隻有兩條車道，而不是五條車道，交通繁忙，因為所有的資本主義利潤和貿易都是通過那條舊公路上的交易來融資的，但已經有人從美國高速公路遷移到中國超級高速公路，這是從俄羅斯人開始的，這就是烏克蘭的戰爭，如果你是沙特阿拉伯人，好吧，你是沙特阿拉伯寡頭，你的大部分生意都是和美國做的，你知道你愛你的美元，但你在想這些人，美國人沒收了俄羅斯的 4000 億美元，因為他們不喜歡俄羅斯人，不管是什麽，也許俄羅斯人應得的，這並不重要，我在這裏沒有提出道德觀點，好吧，你認為你是沙特阿拉伯人，我自己也不是一個很好的人，也許他們明天不會喜歡我，也許我明天會做一些事情來惹惱他們，也許他們會參與我的 d 對吧，所以我為什麽不把一些錢分散一下，我會通過中國人修建的高速公路進行交易，你為什麽認為沙特阿拉伯有興趣加入磚塊，這就是原因，沒有其他原因，這就是原因，現在回到你正在看的那個，你認為這些中國人修建的這條高速公路對我的德國是一個明顯而現實的危險，這就是為什麽他們有籌碼行動，因為他們想減少你投資這條高速公路的能力，並讓它對其他所有人都有吸引力，這就是為什麽他們創造扼殺任何外部人士的情況，美國想與中國進行貿易因為他們不想要這條高速公路，所以不是中國變得更大，不是中國在進行間諜活動，不是台灣，而是中國已經建立了基於數字雲資本的支付高速公路，這對美元支付係統的壟斷是一個明顯而巨大的危險，而美元支付係統的壟斷是美國霸權的唯一原因，所以問題是我們該怎麽做，請允許我很快說四件事，然後我停止這個，然後我們可以進一步討論，你需要做的第一件事是你必須減少對美國貿易赤字的依賴，但請允許我作為一名微觀經濟學家說，你隻能這樣做，如果你增加這個國家的工資份額，這些錢最終會落入工人階級、小人物和這個國家的中產階級的口袋，因為從微觀經濟的角度來說，在五年計劃下，不可能在不依賴美國貿易赤字的情況下，對製造業進行必要的投資，以實現五年計劃的增長率，維持這種投資和保持增長率的唯一方法是在不依賴美國貿易赤字的情況下，通過提高國內總需求，有簡單的方法可以做到這一點，你的數字支付係統就是其中一種方式，如果你願意的話，我可以稍後再討論，這是你需要做的第一件事，減少對美國貿易赤字的依賴，其次，你需要通過軟實力來吸引當地社區，在埃塞俄比亞建造工廠或一些基礎設施或一些能源中心或者在納米比亞，或者

任何有助於當地國家發展的地方，但你必須與當地社區互動，你必須接受，是的，你必須

記住，納米比亞、剛果、埃塞俄比亞都存在階級衝突，當地

統治階級正在摧毀當地工人階級和中國人的前景，我知道你不想幹涉政黨政治，但

你必須讓納米比亞人民明白，中國、中國企業和中國存在是他們的盟友，而不是寡頭政治的盟友，這就是你贏得非洲人心的方法，你需要在歐洲做同樣的事情，因為在歐洲，保守派正努力讓歐洲人民反對中國人，就像純粹的種族主義、仇外心理、東方主義等等，正是那些讓意大利人、希臘人、法國人、德國人反對中國人的人，本質上就是在努力

減少德國人和法國人的生活前景意大利人和希臘人，所以當例如 Costco 進入福斯港時，我知道他們管理港口比希臘人更好，我知道那裏腐敗現象減少了，我知道港口工人的工作條件現在更好了，但 Costco 犯了一個錯誤，沒有參與社區關係，這是第三件事，好吧，嗯，第四件事，美國的軟實力，我們必須一起思考，我說我們我不是中國人，但我有興趣結束冷戰，因為避免核對抗符合人類的利益，其次是找到一種溝通和合作的方式來結束人類快速走向氣候災難的進程，沒有合作就不可能發生，我們無法成功拯救我們的星球，所以這就是為什麽我說我們與美國進步人士接觸很重要，比如我給你舉個例子，美國的民主社會主義者在美國變得相當有影響力，他們中的許多人都是我的朋友就像伯尼·桑德斯一樣，他們被建製派卷入了
反華思維，讓他們回來很重要，因為他們不明白貿易戰是階級戰爭，如果你這樣對他們說，如果我們這樣對他們說，他們就有可能理解，一旦你對中國發動貿易戰，美國工人階級就會受到影響，一些工作可能會通過關稅來挽救，如果他們重新創造一些製造業工作，但那是行不通的，那是行不通的，這不是你知道你阻止幾輛比亞迪汽車進入美國，俄亥俄州就會突然出現更多製造業工作的情況，那是愚蠢的，但我們需要說服美國的進步人士，他們的利益在於緩和美國和中國之間的新冷戰，謝謝

How China Can Win the Cold War with the U.S., Here are Four Suggestions | Yanis Varoufakis

Thinkers Forum 2024年11月15日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BsAa_94dao&t=59s
  
In this more than 30-minute speech, former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis elaborated on his understanding of the nature of the current U.S.-China competition, as well as his suggestions on how China can counter U.S. efforts to contain it.

the containment of China the choking of China is common ground for all of them they simply disagree on how to do it best whether to do it through the war in Ukraine or As Trump suggests and the war in Ukraine and con of China well thank you so much and thank
you for this opportunity to have um an intimate closed door discussion so that
um we can speak freely so I'm going to cut to the chase because my topic I think is the most uh pressing issue for Humanity at the moment the new cold war that the United States
Unleashed against China this is not a shared responsibility it is a decision by Washington DC to unleash a cold war against China it started with Donald Trump it was already in the making from the Obama Administration but it has been reinforced exponentially under Joe Biden and the reason why I'm saying that this is the most pressing issue for Humanity is because we are being quick marched towards the precipice of a nuclear confrontation that the United States authorities knowingly are making a real
possibility and the question is why the first question and once we go through the analysis then of course the second question and of equal importance is so what do we do about it I enjoy very much placing American and British in particular journalists who are part of this propaganda machine you know Financial Times Guardian Washington
Post placing them in the difficult position with a very simple question why
why is the United States declaring essentially a new Cold War against CH
China and the first the first the first word that comes out of their mouth is
Taiwan and I said to them what about Taiwan said well the Chinese want to take it over well I said they always wanted to take it over what's new I mean it was
always the position of Beijing that Taiwan is a province of China and at
some point they will have to fall under the fault like Hong Kong did didn't
Richard Nixon know that in 1971 when he was visiting Beijing making friends with China didn't Clinton know that when he was inducting China into the World Trade Organization why wasn't Taiwan a problem then what has changed now they they look
at me oh yeah well China is spying on us the NSA spying on you the CI I have and
that is the truth and the line knows this we have a three-point NSA tap on me
my phone that is three points means that if I talk to you you spied on if you
talk to your wife your wife is spy don't if your wife talks to your child your spy your your child so I I know that they've told me that so I don't believe the Chinese are as good as the NSA at spying I mean the NSA was listening in to Chancellor Angela Merkel this was revealed and then you know when Angela Merkel was told that immediately she said okay do you want me to speak louder so you can hear hear me better so it wasn't a problem right now suddenly that China is developing surveillance and I hope China is developing
surveillance methods because you know if if you're being spied on you need to spy back on it's the only way my one of my great friends and I'm very proud of that that may shock some of you is Julian Assange of WikiLeaks and Julian Assange a very brave man said to me once uh that what do you do with B Big Brother how do you stop Big Brother well what you do is you develop the technology so that you spy on him while he's spying on you so counter surveillance is the only way of dealing with surveillance so that they
know that you know that they know this is essential for maintaining any degree
of autonomy so I hope China is developing its capacity to counter the surveillance of the
NSA um and it's a joke I mean the people in the NSA are laughing the heads off
when they hear journalists from The Wall Street Journal saying that the reason for the new C war is that China is fing
on the on the Americans and then I hear other idiotic answers like you know the
the Chinese are building Naval vessels uh they are projecting Naval power well
I will believe this I mean of course you're building Naval vessels you're expanding your economy you're expanding
your capacity to um project your own power that is essential that's what
every every country must do if it respects its own interests but I'm going to be worried
about Chinese imperialism when I see
Chinese vessels outside San Diego and Los Angeles and Chinese army
bases next to El Paso on the US Mexican border until we see that it is ludicrous
you just look at the map of the Pacific and you see American bases everywhere
creating choke points for China and this is their official policy for 40 years and they have the audacity to say that
China is a threat because China is anyway enough time wasted on these non-
explanations of the new Cold War now you may have heard of um well I won't
mention him yet the more sophisticated analysts in the United States would
invoke the so-called FUSD trap or thusi curse that to put it in very um V terms
if you live in an anarchic world if you are a child a boy and you go to school
with a very rough school and there are lots of bullies you should be the biggest and
nastiest bully that is the cynical realist school of thought of American
geopolitics that America in this anarchic world because they don't really believe in God they don't believe that
it's a God that will help them they think that they must be the nastiest biggest bully in the world in order to
defend themselves their survival as a nation and their prosperity will depend on their capacity to bully everybody
else and from preventing anyone who is getting too big for their boots to become an equally sized bully and they
will say to you that they wear bullies around the world like for instance Imperial Japan Imperial Germany the
Soviet Union and what the United states have succeeded in doing is effectively
eliminating them annihilating them getting them out of the way and that now China is rising China is next and
therefore for that experience a new Cold War now there's no doubt that the Deep
state in the United States I make no mistake the United States is not a democracy it's an oligarchy with
elections that are providing the legitimacy for this one party state to
continue to exist and when I say one party State I mean one party State uh
take for instance Victoria newand you may be familiar with this Diplomat of the
Washington establishment Victoria nand worked for Bill Clinton she worked for
George W bush she worked under Clinton she worked under Trump and no
doubt she was going to work again for whoever wins in November Victoria nand is an example of
the single state deep state of the United States now that deep State single
party establishment United States is split along the line of two different
conflicting views neither which of which is good news for
China there is the the more intelligent
nuanced line of thinking that which in Academia is uh represented by that very
intelligent man from the University of Chicago John M mimer the view is this
they they are very critical of the inability of
Washington to focus Fus on what is necessary and
their overreach they think that the United States is overreaching so they
are very critical of the war of the United States role in firstly through
Victoria nand creating the circumstances through the kud against Victor yanukovich the
then president of Ukraine in 2014 they created a kudeta in
order ethnically to cleanse Russian speakers from the Eastern side of
Ukraine in order to provoke Putin into
the first stage of war in 2014 against Ukraine so as to push for NATO expansion
in uh Scandinavia and of course Georgia
and Ukraine and so this pragmatic Viewpoint simply says that we shouldn't
be doing this because that way we we are pushing Russia into the arms of
China the whole point of the Nixon Administration was to split the Soviet
Union from China and therefore win the Cold War so they're
critical of the support of Ukraine and of
Israel because they think that this simply disorient the United States
policy it creates alliances amongst Americans enemies like alliances between
Russia and China Iran and Russia and so on and that this is silly politics
because the enemy is China and China needs to be contained and if you ask them why does China need to be
contained China doesn't have a history of imperialism China has absolutely no interest in uh building military bases
on the US Mexican border in taking you know Naval power and Pro in it to San
Diego or Los Angeles or San Francisco China doesn't want that China wants to trade you know what they say yes we
agree but if we let China become a regional
superpower in the Pacific area in its own area in its backyard if we allow
China for instance to become dominant in the South China Sea and in the Indian Ocean
then China in the future will start trying to do what we have done and they
will become an imperialistic force in the western hemisphere which for them is
the Americans this is what they say they understand that China is not imperialistic but they fear that if they
do not contain China through choke points just north of Indonesia you know
the first array of islands the second array of islands between China and the Philippines and so then China
will emulate the United States and therefore you better prevent that by
choking China today so that's one line line of argument the second line of
argument is the opposite argument that the United States must be a bully
everywhere all over the world including in Europe including the Ukraine and that
for instance I I have been told that by somebody who was very high up in the Bush
Administration and who was very high up in the chain of command of NATO in Brussels an American Republican he said
to me that we need to expand NATO against the interest of of the Europeans he was clear against the
interest of the Europeans and I said to him Bob why he said because of three reasons first because we must be in
Europe the United States we to keep ourselves in number one reason he gave
me number two to keep the Germans down look at the price of electricity in
Germany today as a result of the war in Ukraine the German industrial machine is finished kaput as a result not just of
that but that is one of the reasons and thirdly to keep the Russ out so this is
you know if you were in the corridors of power in Washington DC this is the discussion you would hear
the containment of China the choking of China is common ground for all of them they
simply disagree on how to do it best whether to do it through the war in Ukraine or As Trump suggests and the war
in Ukraine and con of China well this so far what I have presented to you is more
or less common knowledge amongst anyone who's ever been in Washington been in
Brussels spoken to these people to the cold Warriors to the new cold Warriors this is common knowledge but I think
that that story that I've given you so far is incomplete why did the Clinton
Administration and the Bush Administration after that were so gangho about trading with China why did they
not start the new Cold War against China in the 1990s in the year 2000 in
2004 2005 200 8 why was it only around
2014 that this establishment decided to unleash the war against China it's not that they one explanation is that the
Clinton Administration people could not see that China would develop to the extent that China developed that it
would become so big I don't believe that I never believe explanations which
presume the stupidity of the people involved I don't believe that these people were stupid and I don't believe
that they didn't see that by shifting half of American manufacturing to the
West Coast of China sorry to the east coast of China that you know that China
would not grow and develop they knew it they were celebrating it I remember you
know for years hearing that you know capitalism is fantastic because look at China the moment it introduced the
market economy so and they become a superpower so they knew it that they wanted it why don't they want it now why
is it suddenly choking points and containment and you know putting a boot
on their neck what what really changed for
me the essence of the pursuit of a new Cold War
against China by the United States by the way Europe is irrelevant Europe is
simply doing as it's told Europe doesn't want to unleash a cold war against China but you know they get the email from
Washington DC do it and they do it against their interest and against their wishes so don't care about the the
Europeans it's Washington if you
we somebody like you know a strategic thinker like
Henry Kissinger who is now dead but you know this is the example of the deep thinking American
official what would you really be worried about since I mentioned Kissinger let
me stick to him for a moment the year was
1970 Kissinger at the time who was working for President Nixon you'll
recall was not the foreign minister was not in the is the state department yet
he was the head of the National Security Council and he was the National Security advisor to the American president and he
was the epitome all his life of American strategic thinking the thinking of that
one party State the Deep state of the United States being a smart man when he
saw the macroeconomic statistics and he saw that from 1968 from 1968 onwards America for the
first time since the 1930s had become a deficit country for
the first time in its history since it became a superpower or an important power in the bid War period and
certainly since the 1950s when it was the only superpower in terms of economic
superpower the United States slipped from being a surplus country from having a surplus in its trade balance uh to
having a deficit and kid was worried because he knew that historically speaking
every Empire that went from being a surplus to a deficit economic entity
started fading so he got together his people at the National Security Council and he
asked them a simple question how should we what should we do in order to retain our
hegemony now that we are a deficit country and he said to the people go
away and think about it and I want from each one of you half a page of a
note very interesting right not 20 Pages half a page not a page half a page this
is how Kissinger worked and these were very smart people right most of them
came back and gave a very Germanic answer if we have a deficit we must cut
down expenditure we must increase uh interest rates and so on and so forth in
order to reduce Imports and bring about a balance between exports and imports to
eliminate our trade deficit one man in his half a page which
I actually acquired in the process of writing a book 15 years ago typ written
a typewritten half a page he said what we must do we must treble our
deficit treble our deficit we have a deficit which is bad we must make it three times as big and make the
capitalists of the rest of the world pay for it which is exactly what happened the
United States should increase its deficit and use it to create aggregate
demand for the net exports of Germany and Japan and later on China because it
is the trade deficit of the United States that sucks into the United States
your aluminum your electric vehicles deficit dollars like I
us and you know when people ask Paul vulkanen but will that not affect the
value of the dollar he said no not as long as it is the only World Reserve currency the only
currency that has demand people demand it even if they don't want to buy anything from the country which is
producing it which is printing it so if you are today somebody of a mind
comparable to gingers then you know that the reason why the
United States is so hegemonic why it can afford to be the big bully around the world is because of
the Monopoly of the payment system and let me give you an example which I gave
uh when we with way way were having this conversation at China today China now
China now now today um when Trump was
elected because he hated Obama so deeply he wanted to take down something that Obama was very proud of Obama was very
proud of two things Obamacare and the agreement between the
west and Iran over the nuclear program of Iran and the ending of the sanctions
which was signed by Iran by the United States and by the whole of the European Union enthusiastically
and Trump wanted to destroy that agreement just because he hated Obama so he takes the agreement with Iran and
tees it up tears it up the chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel was very annoyed
because she had worked very hard together with Obama to bring about that
agreement with Iran and she German businesses were
already in negotiations in Iran to enter Iran Iran is a land of opportunity after
so many years of sanctions for large conglomerates like the German ones especially when it came to energy to
Consumer products to car manufacturing they were all ready to get in and Trump says no Merkel comes out
and gives a press conference against the president of the United States this is unprecedented that doesn't happen
often and she says I do not know what the United States will do we respect
their opinion and their position position but Germany is going to maintain the agreement the peace
agreement with Iran and German businesses will continue to do business in Iran on the basis of this
International agreement which we are going to fulfill and which we are going to honor within 12 hours every single
CEO of every German conglomerate came out and said not us we're not in we're out we will follow the Americans
why it's really very simple because they depended on their net exports to the
United States and the Trump Administration threatened them that they
would not benefit from the tax cuts the corporate the the reductions in the corporate tax that Trump was bringing in
he said to them you want to benefit from them no business in Iran you want to maintain your access to the dollar
payment system no business with Iran so the German Cong con glomerate leaders
turned against the German Chancellor the day after she gave a press conference
effectively saying sorry Chancellor we are going with President Trump on this against their own Financial interests in
Iran and in Europe which is exactly what they're doing now you know the United States together with Ukraine bomb the
pipeline northstream one that costs billions every week for German industry
have you heard a German industry say anything nothing because they are dependent on the American trade deficit
but this whole thing for the trade deficit of the United States to function
as a vacuum cleaner that sucks into the United States the net exports of Germany
of France of Japan and of China you need the dollar to
remain the Monopoly the monopolistic transaction system because it is only
the monop of transactions that allows the Americans to
continue with unfinanced unfunded deficits
then you look at the rise of what I call Cloud capital in the United States and
China by Cloud Capital I'm talking about what lives in here the algorithmic capital on which
big Tech is built which is a new form of capital because unlike like other forms
of capital which are always a means of production a produced means of
production a robot a tractor is something you produce to produce something else this is not a produced
means of production it's a produced means an artificial means of Behavioral
modification that's what Alibaba is that's what Tik Tok is that is what 10cent is that is what of course Amazon
Google Facebook and so on they are capital goods that create nonm
markets platforms that look like markets but are not markets which allow the
owner of that cloud Capital to bring us in as buyers as Sellers as influencers
as opinion makers as simply consumers of entertainment and charge all of us a
form of rent that's enormous power that the ownership of this Cloud Capital
confers to the owners of cloud Capital now there are two countries in the world
that have a lot of concentrated Cloud Capital One is the United States and the other is China and the reason why you
have it here is because you banned Silicon Valley Europe didn't ban Silicon Valley so we all depend on Google
Facebook meta all that and we didn't develop our own cloud Capital so there's American Cloud Capital there Chinese
Capital Cloud Capital Chinese Cloud Capital has an advantage over American Cloud Capital this is something you've
got to understand not so much because I mean your technology is not better than the
Americans in some things you have gone beyond American capabilities but in
other things the Americans are bigger and better and faster than you are at this stage no it's not a technological
advantage that you have it is a political advantage and an organizational advantage here in
China The People's Bank the Central Bank of China controls the bankers in the
United States the bankers control the central bank they own the central bank they created the Central Bank the
Central Bank of the United States the Federal Reserve was created by JB Morgan it was not the
other way around okay it's important to understand the institutional differences between our countries and the United
States the United States is a very very strange place so Cloud Capital Silicon Valley in the
United States and finance don't work together Apple pay exists Google pay
exists so like wej you can pay through Apple pay but a large segment of that money goes to Wall Street as a rent so
there is a class like something like class war between or a fudal l war
between the fom of Wall Street on the West CO east coast and the fom of cloud
capital on the west coast they're clashing that Clash doesn't happen in China because both your Finance sector
and your big Tech or Cloud Capital sector are under the Communist party I'm being very honest and Frank with you and
that's a good thing that is an advantage but if you sitting in Washington
especially after the war in Ukraine especially after your Central Bank created the digital one
the digital one is a fantastic invention you should treasure it and you should use it and you should develop it and we
have discussions about how to do this your country has built a digital Super
Highway for money which is much much more advanced than the rickety road that is the
American dollar road cuz today that super wi highway is not used it's like
you know imagine you have you've had this experience here you build a highway five Lanes each side but not many cars
are going on it that's what's happening now with your digital payment system and
the American road which is very old full of poth holes two lanes not five it's
full of traffic because all the capitalist profits and trade is being
financed through transactions on that old highway but already there's a
migration from the American Highway to the Chinese Super Highway it started
with Russians that's what the Ukraine wared and then if you're a Saudi
Arabian okay you're a Saudi Arabian an oligarch you do most of your business
with the United States you you know you love your dollars but you're thinking these people the Americans confiscated
400 billion of the Russians money because they didn't like the Russians
for whatever it is maybe the Russians deserve it doesn't matter I'm not making an ethical Point here okay you think
you're Saudi Arabian I'm not a very good person myself maybe they will not like me tomorrow maybe I will do something to
annoy them tomorrow maybe they will take part of my d right so why don't I diversify some of that money I will
transact through the Super Highway that the Chinese have built why do you think Saudi Arabia is interested in joining the bricks that's the reason there's no
other reason that is the reason now go back to what you're looking at that and you think this super highway that these
Chinese have built is a clear and present danger to my Germany that's why they have the chips
act because they want to reduce Your Capacity to invest in this super highway
and make it attractive for everybody else this is why they are creating circumstances of choking anyone outside
the United States wants to trade with China because they don't want this Super Highway way so it's not that China is
getting bigger it is not that China is spying it is not Taiwan it is that China
has built a digital Cloud Capital based super highway for payments which is a
clear and prais danger to the Monopoly of the dollar payment system which is the only reason why the United States is
hegemonic so the question is what do we do about that allow me just to say four things very quickly and then I stop this
and then we can take this up further the first thing you need to do is you must
reduce your dependency on the American trade deficit but allow me as a microeconomist to say that you can only
do this is if you increase the weage
share in this country the amount of money which is essentially ending up in
the pockets of the working class the working class and the petty Bui and the middle class in this country because
micro economically speaking it is impossible under the Cent 5year plan to
have the degree of investment in manufacturing that is
necessary in order to meet the growth rates of the 5year plan without depending on the American
trade deficit the only way of maintaining this investment and maintaining the growth rate without
dependency of the American trade deficit is by boosting aggregate demand domestically and there are simple ways
of doing that and your digital payment system is a way of doing it I can
discuss this later if you want that's number one thing you need to do reduce your dependency of the American trade deficit secondly you need to
appeal through soft power through
engagement with the local communities in the global south building a factory or
some infrastructure or some some energy Hub in Ethiopia or in Namibia or
wherever it contributes to the development of the local country but you've got to engage with the local community you have to take yeah you have
to remember your marks that there is class conflict happening in Namibia in the Congo in Ethiopia and the local
ruling class is destroying the prospects of the local working class and the
Chinese I know you don't want to interfere in a party political level but
you have to gr you the people of Namibia must understand that China and Chinese
business and the Chinese presence are their allies not the allies of their oligarchy that's how you win hearts and
Minds in Africa you need to do the same in Europe because in Europe there is a
conservative effort to turn the people of Europe against the Chinese along the lines of pure racism
xenophobia orientalism and so on the same people who are turning the the the
Italians the Greeks the French the Germans against the Chinese are the people who are essentially working
towards the diminution of the life prospects of the Germans the French the
Italians and the Greeks so when for instance Costco entered the port of fos
I know it that they run the port better than the Greeks did I know that there is less corrup corruption and I know that
the work the conditions of the workers in the port are better now but cost made a mistake by not engaging in community
relations that's um the third thing okay um and the fourth
thing soft power within the United States we must think to together and I
say we I'm not Chinese but I have an interest in ending the Cold
War uh because it is in the interest of humanity to avoid firstly nuclear
confrontation and secondly to find a way of communicating and collaborating to end
the very fast March of humanity towards a climate catastrophe without
cooperation it can't happen we cannot succeed in saving our planet so this is
why I'm saying we it is important to approach American progressors like I
give you an example the Democratic socialists of America who are becoming have become rather
influential in the United States many of them are my friends people like Bernie Sanders they have been sucked into the
anti-chinese mindset by The Establishment it is important to bring them
back because they don't understand that trade Wars are class Wars if you put it
to them that way if we put it to them that way there's a chance that they will understand it that the moment you have a
trade War being imposed on China the American working class is going to suffer some jobs may be saved through tariffs if they recreate some manufacturing job but that won't work that is not going to work it is not a situation where you know you stop a few byd cars from coming to the United States and suddenly there will be more manufacturing jobs in Ohio that is
idiocy but we need to convince the progressives in the United States that
they interests are in deescalate the new cold war between United States and China
thank you