李光耀公共政策學院 2024 年思想節 曆史終結時的中國衝擊

李光耀公共政策學院 2024 年思想節 曆史終結時的中國衝擊

2024 年思想節——曆史終結時的中國衝擊

Festival of Ideas 2024- The China Shock at the End of History

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPL1NcM7i1Q

2024年10月10日

中美競爭很可能成為我們一生中不變的現象。一些觀察家已經將這種大國競爭視為既定事實，並建議我們盡最大努力去適應它。然而，如果希望解決這一問題，我們需要了解這種競爭是如何發展的。曾經，世界致力於接觸，而現在似乎隻是大國之間的平衡。我們能說出中美競爭的根本原因是什麽？在退出接觸時應該發現哪些標誌？我們的小組成員從不同的角度回答了這些問題，並詢問如何才能擺脫這種僵局。了解有關思想節的更多信息 https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/news-events... 如有疑問，請通過電子郵件聯係 LKYSPP 活動團隊：[e-mail]

什麽是思想節

當今世界陷入了多重危機，威脅著共同繁榮和進步的基礎。我們比以往任何時候都更需要亞洲各國和國際社會的良好治理。思想很重要。它們必須以研究為基礎，並傳達給決策者和廣大公眾，以帶來變革。

自二十年前成立以來，這一直是李光耀公共政策學院的使命。值此裏程碑之際，我們邀請您與我們的教職員工、學生和合作夥伴一起參與 2024 年創意節，探討重塑世界的變革性思想和問題。

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好的，讓我們開始吧，大家早上好，歡迎來到連友公共政策學院 Tima 校區，歡迎參加本次創意節，這是該節日的兩個開幕式之一，該節日是連友學院每隔一年舉辦一次的為期一周的活動，節日的目的是與 BK Tima 地區的當地社區進行接觸，但在新加坡，更廣泛地說，是與世界其他地方的接觸，在節日上，我們歡迎來自社區初級學院的學生，同時也歡迎來自世界各地的世界知名學者和思想領袖，該節日是關於我們這個時代的偉大思想和最緊迫問題的交流，這是學校展示我們思想和博士學位的機會碩士生展示他們的作品，我們學校的教職員工和同事，以及來自世界各地的同事，都在進行對話，這都是學校使命的一部分，我們激勵變革者和領導者，幫助改善我們周圍人的福祉，並進一步推動這一領域，我們通過良好治理的經驗幫助改變亞洲，今天上午的會議是關於曆史末期的中國衝擊，我們將做的是，我們將有四個人發表一係列開場白，然後，我們將與我們四個人以及觀眾進行對話，我不會重複您已經在宣傳冊中知道的信息，這些信息將您帶到了這裏，但現在我想歡迎陳鶴妮教授、何淑儀教授、李申先生上台，請和我一起歡迎我的同事上台，我們將按字母順序開始，每個小組成員都發表簡短的開場白，討論我們正在經曆的中美競爭以及我們未來的應對措施，大使教授陳教授

謝謝大家，早上好，女士們先生們，我希望我的發言簡短些，我不知道我有點混亂，但呃，自從曆史結束以來，也就是自從冷戰結束以來，我們已經經曆了三次中國衝擊，第一次衝擊是中國迅速而持續的崛起，特別是自從它加入世貿組織以來，經濟上首先對中國產生了影響，因為它帶來了巨大的轉變，也對世界其他國家產生了巨大的地緣政治和地緣經濟影響，我認為美國和歐洲從未預見到中國的崛起意味著什麽，就中國成為世界工廠而言，這對每個人都有好處，直到它對每個人都不利呃，你知道拿破侖說過，讓中國沉睡，當她醒來時，她將震撼世界，而 Lewan Yu 事實上，我在 1980 年的 Feton 廣場集會上看過他的一盤舊錄音帶，說你知道中國，這是 1980 年中國加入世界四個現代化兩年後，等等和 T XA平訪問新加坡時，他看到了新加坡發生的事情，他說，看看新加坡，中國人在做什麽，看看它的發展，然後他在同一次演講中還說，中國今天正在從美國購買波音飛機，從英國購買三叉戟飛機，兩到三代中國將建造自己的飛機，一代飛機大約需要 25 年或 20 年，所以

40 50 年中國將建立自己的遊戲絕對正確你剛剛看到 C919 的揭幕所以這是中國衝擊但讓我再換一種方式說一遍你知道 1980 年的第一家商店那是現代化剛過兩年所以它確實算數中國正在尋找出路它在世界 GDP 中的份額在 2001 年是 2.7%我認為在加入世貿組織一年後它在世界經濟中的份額是 3.9%美國是 31.3%歐洲 31 21.3%日本 13.9%2023 年這包括中國一直在經曆的一些問題中國在世界經濟中的份額是 16.9%美國從 2001 年的 31% 變為 2023 年的 26.1%歐洲是17.5%也下降了日本占世界經濟的 4%中國和歐洲歐洲作為一個整體中國作為一個單一經濟體爭奪第二位作為份額世界經濟，近年來，由於中國所麵臨的困難，我認為其在世界經濟中的份額有所下降，因此美國目前穩定在 25-26% 左右，這意味著衝擊從 1980 年的 2.7% 降至現在的 17% 左右，還有其他數據，我可以告訴你貿易經濟的份額，但我沒有時間，中國帶來的第二個衝擊是，中國的崛起引發了中美之間激烈的競爭，這是冷戰結束以來從未見過的，顯然，這是關於世界秩序的主導地位，首先是貿易戰，然後是技術戰，然後是投資戰，然後是技術戰，你知道軍事競爭等等，正如喬治所說，很快就會是一場熱戰，但這是不同的戰爭，但它關乎世界體係的主導地位，關乎價值觀，關乎軟實力，最近一年左右，誰製定了世界秩序的規則變得更加清晰，現在這是結構性的因此，這種競爭不會很快結束，無論美國投票給卡馬拉·哈裏斯還是唐納德·特朗普，這種競爭都不會結束，無論是更可預測還是完全不可預測，那些說中國應該堅持和平崛起的人，我認為他們錯了，因為即使他們說，中國說我們相信和平崛起，也沒有人會相信中國，事實上，當我在 1990 年代和 2000 年代初在美國時，美國人對我說，哦，是的，他們說和平崛起，這是第一階段，等到中國變得更強大，他們還會堅持和平崛起嗎，所以沒有意義，你知道他們不能隱藏灌木叢下的光芒，他們不能說他們相信和平崛起，第三個衝擊是中國經濟的快速下滑和困難，我們看到中國增長如此迅速，所以在過去幾年裏，當我們看到中國經濟表現如此糟糕時，這也是一個震驚，天哪，這是中國，在美國，有分析人士說，中國巔峰，中國從現在開始會下滑和走下坡路那麽，真正的趨勢是什麽？中國，這是中國發展所遭遇的第三次衝擊，它能夠如此迅速地崛起，但突然間，一切似乎都如此迅速地瓦解，最重要的是，我們聽說了人口下降和人口老齡化，請注意，全世界都在老齡化，全世界都在下降，你知道人口統計學家說，2080 年世界人口將達到峰值，我們所有人的人口都會下降，所以不僅僅是中國在下降，但我認為人口下降、人口老齡化和經濟放緩給投資者和中國帶來了挑戰，所以你如何了解中國，如果你讀金融時報、紐約時報，中國是否完全失敗了，這些天中國沒有好消息傳出，但讓我告訴你，有些報道很少有人注意到，即使有人注意到，也隻是隨風而逝，那就是，第一，中國的城市陷入困境，第二，第三，第四，第五，中國的城市表現還不錯，你知道不是所有的城市，但很多城市現在都表現不錯，嗯，我有一些來自中國的數據這是 ja 關於中國的出版物，它顯示這些二三線城市的零售額正在上升，你知道不是全部，但如果你拿 36 個城市來說，其中三個城市落後了，其餘的都在上升，二線三線城市，我有這裏的數字，如果你想要的話，參考日期是 2024 年 9 月 9 日，學者年，這是你的參考，認為中國查找數據，你知道，而且增長也不錯，如果你說哦，認為中國，她親中國，讓我引用經濟學人的數據，經濟學人在 2024 年 6 月 6 日有一個問題，你知道，移到北京，你知道，要小心二線和二線和三線城市，但你看它是一篇文章，沒有人把事情放在一起，但嗯，我沒有時間丹尼，我昨天才看到這個，我懶得把它放到幻燈片裏，你知道，但二線和三線城市的經濟一般都是數字顯示的他們都在增長

這些城市的增長率接近 7.78%，相當於 6.5沈楚還行，但
北京和上海低於全國平均水平，不是廣州
但北京和上海還行，而且人口
變化中，人口在增長，武漢等地人口在減少，人口減少停止了，昌隻增長了0.06，所以事情正在向二三線城市轉移，那裏有一些動向，這是有道理的，因為中國現在的增長模式強調先進製造業和綠色經濟，其中很多都向二三線城市發展，所以人們也去那裏，所以我是中國文章說的，
人們在二三線城市消費，因為在一線城市，所有的房地產一線城市的錢都與房地產掛鉤，價格如此之高，然後崩盤，你有科技創業、科技人才、金融人才等，他們被如此束縛，所有這些悲傷的故事，人們都去一線城市，在那裏得到大部分反饋，但這並不意味著中國就像那樣，一些懷疑論者說，先進製造業、人工智能等和綠色經濟取代或創造與過去的基礎設施、房地產基礎設施等相同的增長
電子商務可能不會，所以它正在放緩一點，但它不是平緩的，也不是不增長的，這是中國，所以我想說的是，這是另一種敘述，我們應該看看中國不是一個無望的案例，它正在改變，顯然模式正在改變，所以我不知道最後會發生什麽，我最好快點結束，因為我超出了我的時間，所以問題是，一、中國會複蘇嗎
二、如果中國經濟走弱，這是否會減輕美國和中國之間的競爭？我個人不這麽認為，因為有些人在美國說，如果經濟下滑，你為什麽不把它拿出來，你知道，這樣你就會強大起來，讓中國落後 5 到 10 年，所以問題是，我們是否正在走向一個脫鉤的世界，這會是一場冷戰嗎？我將讓 Selina 來談論這個問題，但我認為我們必須記住，我一直說美國是一個有韌性的國家，不要低估美國，同樣，我會說中國是一個有韌性的國家，不要低估中國，當中國經濟再次複蘇時，你會發現人們蜂擁回到香港，蜂擁回到中國，因為世界，歐洲，中國和美國都不想錯過任何行動，那麽在這個充滿爭議的時代，中小國家應該扮演什麽角色呢？我想說，如果美國自己不認為開戰不符合他們的利益，我們就無能為力，如果他們覺得美國和中國覺得開戰不符合他們的利益，小國和中型國家可以做些什麽，我們都在努力搭建橋梁，為會議創建論壇，現在有很多這樣的事情正在發生，但自從舊金山峰會以來，美國人說兩國關係存在缺陷，如果問美國人，他們說兩國關係已經穩定下來，我和中國同行談過，他們說兩國關係已經穩定下來了我認為他們希望它會穩定下來，你知道，呃，但是傑克·沙利文說，我們現在在巴厘島，辛平總統告訴拜登，拜登總統，中國不尋求改變美國內政，也無意挑戰或取代美國，這也在舊金山重複了一遍，美國根本不相信這一聲明，所以我，我認為會有這種來回的推擠，我們應該在小時間裏工作，我想說小論壇，你不能有一個十年的戰略和計劃，你如何將你帶到這裏，因為建立信心是一個循序漸進的措施，即使這樣，這也是很難的，我的最後一點是，一旦我們能夠建立一座橋梁，你就會看到許多國家正在出現，我稱之為進入第三空間的國家，印度是其中之一，印度尼西亞，我認為新加坡正在努力在你想要建立良好關係的地方，你可以有結盟，印度在四方印度太平洋戰略上有結盟，但它不是排他性的，它仍然與俄羅斯有關係，所以這個第三空間在發展時，我認為幫助調和雙方之間的競爭，謝謝
非常感謝 hchi 嗯，為我們的會議做了如此出色的開場，你談到了三個衝擊，你談到了中國的地理再平衡，然後你給了我們一些樂觀的前景，非常細致入微地討論了可能的戰略，我現在想邀請何教授繼續談話，非常感謝，我可以在這裏發言嗎？是的，當然，我很好，謝謝爸爸，嗯嗯，謝謝你來到這裏，很高興能參加這個小組，嗯，真的很榮幸嗯嗯，我很高興我實際上是在陳大使之後發言，因為她的很多重新馬克引起了我的共鳴，也因為我想，嗯，你知道她
談到了我們所知的中美競爭中的係統性或結構性觀點，我真正想要的是研究國內驅動因素，特別是我對
中國的角度感興趣，所以我正在尋找，我將談談這場競爭的中國視角，但你知道，嗯，我的意思是標題是曆史終結中的中國衝擊，所以正確地談論中國是正確的，嗯，但你知道，我認為陳大使對
中國衝擊進行了很好的剖析，三次衝擊，但讓我談一下曆史的終結，我有一些你知道
觀眾中的學生，如果我在教室裏，我會在曆史的最後剖析和解開這些術語，你們中的一些人可能知道也可能不知道，它在不同的圈子裏被廣泛使用，但曆史的終結是實際上，這是由弗朗西斯·福山寫的一本書推廣的，那是在 1992 年，就在蘇聯解體和歐洲共產主義結束之後，所以它被稱為曆史的終結和最後的人，現在這個想法，曆史的終結實際上不是福山自己提出的，他推廣了它，但這是一個西方哲學家提出的概念，特別是德國哲學家黑格爾，好吧，現在曆史之手的想法不是世界末日，隻是要明確一點，它與世界末日不同，它是曆史的終結，從某種意義上說，人類的進步是這樣的，在曆史的盡頭，將有一個政治製度或意識形態占上風，所以這就是《曆史終結時的中國衝擊》這個標題的背景，這是你想出的一個非常棒的想法，丹尼，順便說一句，我真的很喜歡它，嗯，我們可以討論曆史的終結，fugama 的優點，或者他的觀點的缺點，稍後再討論，但讓我快速進入我的評論，我的評論實際上圍繞三個主要問題展開，第一個問題是中國外交政策的驅動因素是什麽，第二個問題是中國想要什麽樣的國際秩序或國際或世界秩序，你知道這是什麽意思，中國的野心是什麽，這些野心是什麽，中國的野心是什麽，美國不願意將其等同於中國的野心，這對我們其他人來說意味著什麽，對世界其他國家和我們的未來意味著什麽，好吧，讓我看看第一個驅動因素，第一個問題，中國外交政策的驅動因素，我認為誤解和誤解以及中美之間缺乏這種溝通的關鍵之一是，有時我認為他們不太了解對方的國內政治，我們實際上真的需要要理解這種競爭，就需要從中國內部尋找這些驅動因素，現在我們首先要問的是，中國國內的優先事項是什麽，我認為，當總統 C 和 2012 年 2013 年上任時，他關注的是社會經濟和中國共產黨的發展方向，我認為他們看到了一些他不太滿意的事情，他周圍的人也不太滿意，所以他進行了三次改革，他想改革三件事，第一件是改革中國經濟，現在這是什麽意思呢？中國不喜歡完全由市場力量驅動的自由經濟，我認為他們認識到市場力量的必要性，但他們不希望它完全由市場力量驅動，它不喜歡這種市場力量帶來的不平衡發展和不平等，所以他們不看西方，他們看西方，他們說你知道這不是我們想要什麽，我們不想要這種不平等，我們不想要這種不平衡的發展，我們想要更穩定、更平等的東西，因此我們有共同繁榮這個術語，好吧，這就是為什麽在某種意義上，你看到東南政府和他周圍的人瞄準私營企業和公司，他們已經變得太大、太強大了，所以他們必須控製這些企業，這樣他們就會變得太強大，以至於他們會挑戰中國共產黨或中國政府，我認為這是關鍵點，中國在經濟中想要的另一件事是雙循環經濟，這是你現在經常聽到的另一件事，這意味著什麽，這真的意味著中國經濟的封閉，但更重要的是自力更生的願望，我認為這種自力更生的願望早於 2016 年的貿易戰，早於 2016 年的中美競爭貿易戰，所以我們需要明白，國內的首要任務是重塑中國經濟，第二要務是重塑中國社會你知道，海軍領導層和他的團隊上台後，看到了一個他認為正在惡化的社會，一個意識形態不夠純粹的社會，它想要阻止西方思想，呃，它想要阻止自由主義資本主義思想，並恢複意識形態的純粹性，你覺得這裏有一些東西，比如社會再平衡，嗯，現在的社會信用體係，為什麽我們有這些，本質上是為了控製社會，中國人通過使用技術控製社會，這非常了不起，他們已經枯萎了，嗯，但基本上它創造了一個與世界其他地方不同的社會，以阻止中國領導層不想要的因素，現在，中國共產黨進行的第三次改造是再次改造中共本身，感覺是中共已經迷失了方向，它失去了意識形態的純粹性，在西方意義上的自由主義道路上走得太遠了，對吧，所以他們都有這些反腐運動，意識形態正確，強調意識形態正確，正確的思想，所以這三個混合在一起，現在為什麽這三個混合在一起，為什麽這些優先事項本質上歸結為一件事，那就是提高合法性，確保中共政權的生存，需要提高合法性和政權的生存，黨推動中國的外交政策，所以中國的外交政策本質上是
在一個非常廣泛的計劃中，是為了確保兩件事，確保中共的合法性，讓世界對不同形式的政府來說是安全的，不僅僅是民主政府，而且讓世界對獨裁或專製政府來說也是安全的，現在這是第一個問題的第一個呃呃答案，現在第二個問題是中國想要什麽樣的世界秩序，現在中國在我看來有一個哈拉爾的世界觀，他認為大國統治世界，共同管理
管理世界，我們稱之為大國管理，大國管理世界，因此你知道你看到嗯
總統提出了一個想法G2，對，奧巴馬政府時期與美國的G2，這個想法現在已經不複存在了，但這個想法是，兩個最大的國家，美國和中國，領導著世界其他國家並管理事務，所以它真正想要的最終是與中國平起平坐，它希望自己的權威被承認為合法，它希望建立一個擁有更大發言權的世界秩序，它希望建立一個與其規模相稱的世界秩序，現在它的主要不滿是美國及其盟友沒有給予它應有的地位、尊重和地位，因為它的政治製度和意識形態不同，這是他的主要不滿，好吧，現在嗯，我實際上不像陳大使，我不認為中國想要呃全球主導地位，我不確定這是否是你的意思，嗯，但我同意，有這場爭奪全球主導地位的鬥爭，但我不確定中國本身是否真的想要全球主導地位，我認為中國並不尋求推翻國際秩序，它希望適應國際秩序，適應國際秩序，適應其權利，承認其與美國平等，這是平等的理念，使獨裁體製能夠被接受，它希望承認中共的合法性，並有權存在和統治中國，因此，中國是否想要全球主導地位真的是一個非常大的問題，我認為它知道它還沒有完全實現，還沒有，它可能現在想要與美國平等，並在未來 10 到 20 年內有 G2 的想法，但之後會發生什麽，這是個問號，誰知道呢，嗯，我認為，為了了解中國在全球野心方麵的發展方向，觀察國內政治的發展非常重要，因此，任何研究中國政策的人，美國與中國的競爭，都需要研究中國國內政治，這是一個困難的部分，理解和試圖了解中國國內政治的情況現在非常困難，因為這個係統變得比以前更加不透明了，嗯，在地區層麵上，中國想要什麽？我認為這就是中國想要的地區主導地位，我的意思是，它的偏好是亞洲沒有其他競爭的權力中心，好吧，現在要非常清楚，這是所有大國都做的事情，這不是中國獨有的，中國想要一個可以主導的地區，這不是中國獨有的，所有大國都這樣做，你看到美國在拉丁美洲這樣做，你看到俄羅斯在歐洲東歐這樣做，你看到印度在南亞這樣做，這是大國非常正常的行為，所以所有大國都希望在亞洲建立所謂的勢力範圍它所在的地區是最接近的，所以它的利益不會受到競爭對手的負麵影響。它希望該地區考慮到它的利益和前言，而不是站在我們製定政策的 Ral 一邊，所以這讓我想到了第三個問題，所有這些發展對中國野心和我們有什麽影響，你知道，抵製和不願接受中國想要的東西，嗯，美國不想承認中國的地位和共產黨存在的權利，以及擁有另一種形式的政府，我想說的是，我們實際上不太可能看到回到舊冷戰，舊冷戰，聯盟和集團非常明確，你知道誰在誰的陣營中，他們知道誰在誰的陣營中，好吧，我的意思是，有一群不結盟運動試圖這樣做，但他們通常傾向於某一方，現在，在某種程度上，這種聯盟和集團的明確實際上產生了秩??序和穩定，因為我們確切地知道彼此的立場，但是相反，我們很可能會看到聯盟和夥伴關係不斷變化，因為包括美國在內的地區國家與中國有著深厚的經濟聯係，現在，這種新興秩序和不斷變化的聯盟的流動性意味著存在更多的不確定性和危險，因為誤解和誤判可能會導致我們陷入新的冷戰，那麽我們是否處於一場新的冷戰中呢？我認為陪審團對此還沒有定論，沒有明確的答案，有相似之處，也有不同之處，但如果發生核戰爭，它將不同於過去的戰爭，現在的世界不可能是那樣，我們可以看到，你知道美國和中國需要互相交談，有一段時間他們沒有說太多話，但他們最終必須在舊金山交談，所以美國和中國不互相交談會很困難，就像在鐵幕時代一樣，冷戰的字麵意思是你知道你們不會互相交談，嗯，所以你不太可能看到那種舊冷戰的回歸，但我們可能會有一些新的東西嗯，關於這個，現在讓我以一個更樂觀的基調結束我的演講，實際上我同意 Chanc 大使最後關於中小國的觀點，現在中小國可以提供壓艙物，因為大國可以去戰鬥，但我們可以提供最好的。好的，中小國已經走到一起，確保 Glo Global 供應鏈的穩定性，在技術方麵製定規則，以及在數字經濟夥伴關係等方麵所做的許多其他事情。我認為我們正在盡最大努力，我們應該繼續這樣做，謝謝，謝謝 Selena 的精彩陳述，你告訴我們，是什麽從內部推動了中國的發展，中國想要什麽，中國對秩序的願景是什麽，以及這與美國等大國的設想一致和不一致，然後你告訴我們一些充滿希望的前進方向，以及中小國可以做什麽，你告訴了我們你對可能出現的情況的看法，非常感謝，我現在想轉向李先生，他將與我們分享他的觀點，我認為他一生都在政府工作，一生都在與中國打交道。李先生，請您發言，非常感謝，您好，您能聽到我說話嗎，是的，早上好，大家好，我很高興參加這次小組討論，如果丹尼告訴我誰會是觀眾，我可能會重新考慮是否接受這個邀請，因為這個房間裏有這麽多中國專家和分析師，我以中國學生的身份發言，我的學習之旅始於 1997 年我被派往 SoJO 工業園區，所以已經訪問中國近 30 年了，僅今年一年，我就第九次訪問中國，正如我告訴 NL 的那樣，在本周的時間裏，我將進行第十次旅行，所以我會與政府領導人打交道嗯，企業可以分為國有企業和私有企業，所以我在新加坡和中國都和他們打交道，所以我會從那段經曆或那個限製來講，你知道，就我的角度來看，我的發言將分為三個部分，第一部分是關於中國在 2010 年成為第二大經濟體，我們都知道，中國在 1979 年實際上開始了改革開放，在 2018 年，當我在中國改革開放 40 周年紀念活動上發言時，我說，中國是人類曆史上最了不起的經濟曆史，你知道他們擁有人類曆史上最了不起的經濟發展，我認為你找不到另一個相似之處，所以我認為在 80 年代，它在 90 年代增長了 9.7%增長了
10.5%，在 21 世紀，它又增長了 10.5%，盡管在 21 世紀 10 年代增長放緩，
但增長了 7%，但你知道，在那 40 年裏，增長率仍然很驚人，所以當我 1997 年從美國來到蘇喬時，在那之前 5 年，我說
哇，世界上的資本主義經濟，你什麽都看不到，直到你去中國，你知道當時中國對所有人都是自由的，隻要你有這個想法，法律也沒有說不可以，你就可以這樣做，所以對於那些觀看
戲劇的人來說，F 對，正是那種動物精神，你知道能量被動員到社會各個層麵，所以當然，在那 40 年裏，我認為關鍵的驅動力真的是改革開放，我想我們很多人都知道新加坡是如何參與其中的，當時李顯龍總理於 1976 年訪問中國，沙坪壩於 78 年訪問中國，隨後，我們的總理高金，他卸任國務院後被任命為經濟顧問，就兩件事提供建議，即經濟特區和旅遊發展，所以在那 40 年裏，中國做了很多改革是自由，人們發揮聰明才智、創造力和智慧，體製允許這樣做，所以你會聽到這樣一句話，致富是一件光榮的事，那真是一個黃金時期，所以我來來回回地經曆了那種能量，在我的工作中，無論是公務員，還是後來在政治領域，再到私營部門，另一個驅動因素是中國在 2010 年加入世貿組織，有趣的是，那一年我還被任命為上海市事務委員會的顧問，所以你知道為什麽我們所有在中國以外的人都擔心中國廉價產品可能會進入我們的市場，然後因此扼殺我們在中國的主題，而另一方麵，他們都擔心外國高質量的產品進入摧毀他們的私營部門，所以這是一次非常有趣的經曆，但剩下的就是曆史了，我認為中國成為了世界工廠，擁有最大、最廣泛的製造能力，我想那些使用蘋果手機的人會知道，這體現了中國供應鏈的實力和全麵性，好吧，那麽我們進入第二個時期，如果你仔細觀察，從2000年到2023年，也就是去年，我認為在這個時期，中國、牙山和東南亞在經濟和貿易方麵已經走得更近了，在投資方麵，許多中國公司已經開始將他們的勞動密集型產業遷移到越南、柬埔寨、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞等地，因為要利用AG相對便宜的勞動力成本，所以它適用於非常簡單的家居用品、家具、服裝紡織品，然後是白色家電的組裝，另一個原因是，牙山比世界其他地區享有關稅，因此通過將部分生產轉移到牙山，中國自己的公司享受關稅稅率的差異，可以說，你知道美國是北美市場，2000 年和 20223 年這段時期的另一個驅動因素是跨國公司的中國加一戰略，在新冠疫情之後，跨國公司看到了中國的情況，尤其是在上海全麵封鎖之後，這一點變得非常明顯，所以公司說，我們再也不能把所有的供應鏈都放在一個地方了，我們最好分散風險，跨國公司告訴他們的供應商，他們的一些供應商是中國公司，說嘿，你知道，如果你不從中國分散業務，我就不會給你，我不是，我隻給你
明年訂單的 50% 或 70% 或任何其他數字，所以中國的加一戰略讓亞山受益，你會從各種報道中看到，越南是主要受益者，但不僅僅是越南、馬來西亞、印度尼西亞
柬埔寨，當然在一定程度上還有洛杉磯等等，當然，這一切的背後
一直都有一種一帶一路倡議，你知道，當中國想要出口他們的基礎設施建設，知道如何
不僅出口到亞山國家，而且出口到
世界各個發展階段，他們真的需要大量的基礎設施，許多國家沒有港口，沒有發電廠，沒有合適的道路，你知道，沒有鐵路等等，這些都是可持續經濟發展的關鍵因素，所以
中國非常適合這條道路，順便說一句，當巴西的錢從中國流向世界其他地區時，新加坡設法占領了大約三分之一資本流動，所以這對我們有好處，我想說的第三點是關於中國和東盟關係的長期前景，我認為，在和賽琳娜都談到了中美關係，這是一個非常大的圖景，但更貼近國內，你知道，我對新加坡非常感興趣新加坡和牙山與中國的關係將繼續發展，我認為第一點是，兩年前，牙山已成為中國最大的培訓合作夥伴，超過美國和歐盟，所以，這非常重要，中國成為牙山最大的培訓合作夥伴，這是曆史，對吧，我的意思是，不僅是牙山，還有世界上其他 120 個國家，但牙山成為中國最大的貿易夥伴，這非常重要，我認為這種趨勢將繼續下去，盡管中國經濟放緩，因為我們有這個互補性，牙山的人均收入從 1.5 美元到新加坡的 85,000 美元，所以這是一個很大的範圍，而中國大約是 13,000 美元，所以，牙山超過 23 個，所以就中國而言，他們不要與亞洲國家競爭，事實上，在很多領域，他們在技術和供應鏈方麵都處於領先地位，但鑒於世界是雙向的，市場正在建立保護主義政策，因此，中國企業本身，而不僅僅是跨國公司，必須找到在中國以外分銷供應鏈的方法，才能繼續生存，所以兩個月前，我接待了來自中國的家居協會代表團，我記得該協會的會長說，你要麽走出去，要麽死，所以這是它的押韻，中文更好，意思是你不這樣做，因為對於這個行業來說，他們與房地產市場息息相關，所以他們的訂單突然減少了50%，然後我的意思是，很多供應商，你知道家居，生態係統中有很多相關行業，所以如果他們不走出去，他們就會死，這就是它有多嚴重，所以他們走出去，新加坡將從中受益因為我們無法進行低成本製造，但我們可以成為他們的總部，調動資源，成為一個指揮中心，當然，其他的也是如此，正如辛吉和賽琳娜之前所說，地緣政治動態將開始推動許多企業思考，隻要我們保持中立，對所有各方友好，並為各方所接受，所以我個人認為中國是一個真正長期的因素，畢竟，就像辛吉所說的那樣，中國占世界經濟的60%，它就在你家門口，距離最近的入境點隻有三個半小時的路程，不像美國，距離太平洋對麵有14個小時的路程，所以事實上我們所有人都會感受到這一點，因為我們看到新加坡有很多中餐館，它們強調不同的區域美食街道上，你會看到中國品牌湧入，時尚品牌，運動品牌
如果你去中國，現在他們都是中國品牌，化妝品
隻是廣告，就像法國和日本的一樣華而不實
你知道，絲芙蘭報道說，在中國關閉門店，所以我認為中國品牌都會出現，所以如果你問我如何看待世界，但你知道在新加坡，我們太小了，我們無法影響世界事件，我們無法影響世界大國，我們可以進行對話，我們可以成為一個平台，但他們也希望擁有自己的平台和對話渠道，所以有一句中國諺語，在這種情況下，有點像
[音樂]知道意思是我們不能逆流而上，我們隻能順流而下，聽起來有點像泰國人，但我們發現，我們，我們，我們，我們找到了平靜的平靜和和平，在這種流動中，並試圖以此謀生，所以這就是我的評論，非常感謝，李先生，非常精彩地將我們帶回到阿山如何與中國打交道，以及您如何知道未來的前景和挑戰，嗯，我現在要談談，我將嚐試加入對話，也許以我意想不到的方式，我們聽到了中國的優先事項，我們聽到了中國的觀點，我們聽到了阿山如何看待這個問題，讓我現在為美國辯護，最近我寫了一篇文章，叫做《美國應該如何停止對成為第一的癡迷》，為此，我遭到了許多反美人士的猛烈攻擊，我不是，我想從美國的角度來辯論這個問題，因為試圖思考中國衝擊的一部分是試圖思考我們與中國的競爭，這需要兩個糾結沒有單掌鼓掌的聲音我們必須嚐試理解雙方參與此次接觸你們中的許多人會記得許多人認為我們與中國的競爭的一種方式是通過一個非常簡單的圖表該圖表是美國的國內生產總值和中國國內生產總值，美國經濟的規模和中國經濟的規模，我們所有人都已經熟悉了中國經濟如何趕上美國，如果你不想考慮經濟，你可以從軍事規模、核彈頭數量的角度來考慮，你可以把它看作是衡量其他類型權力參與的指標，與世界其他地區在每一個維度上，中國都在趕上美國，這有什麽不對的，從美國的角度來看，這張圖表顯示，敵對霸權有可能在美國、亞太地區、太平洋地區、中國、美國、歐洲等地區占據優勢，世界上的每個人，從人口數量、經濟活力、政治參與等方麵來看，這部分地區都被認為是世界經濟中心，很快就會成為潛在的政治中心。發生這種情況將嚴重限製美國的行動自由和他們能夠采取的戰略範圍，因此觀察家們會看一些想象中的理論點，有一個閾值，並說當中國達到美國實力的 80% 或 90% 或任何其他水平時，這就是危險點，這是一個關於曆史末期中國衝擊的簡單故事，中國的崛起帶來了這一點，正如大使所說，沒有人相信鍾潘對中國和平崛起的闡述，它的結構是這將是一個挑戰，所以和其他人一樣，我喜歡用簡單的故事來理解世界，這是一個非常簡單的故事，無論彼此相比如何，但即使我覺得這個故事有點太簡單了，作為一種思考曆史末期中國衝擊的方式，作為一種思考美國中國競爭的方式，所以讓我用剩下的三分半鍾來討論三點，這三點非常簡單，我想談談世界曆史的一個循環，第一點我想說的是這個周期的上升部分，你可以把它看作是美國和中國世界其他國家的接觸，然後我想談談不是中國頂峰的問題，我不是對中國的悲觀主義者，我認為中國經濟將繼續增長，但這個周期的頂峰會讓我們走向脫離，國際關係學者稱之為平衡，我們其他人可能認為是競爭，這是時代，這個周期的低迷期，這是中國衝擊的時代，中國衝擊把我們帶到了今天的境地，然後我的第三點是我們前進的道路是什麽，因為這個小組的所有同事都說他們都給了你一個前進的道路的願景，我也想給你一個願景，所以回到接觸時期，為什麽世界曆史經曆了這個周期的上升部分，在1980年至2010年之間，美國和中國以建設性的接觸方式相互打交道，他們是否考慮過不管是不是那樣，他們就是這麽做的，所以
他們最終無意中進行了建設性的接觸
那個時代的偉大主題有兩個，一個是地緣政治，另一個是國際經濟。地緣政治說，世界在政治上正在趨同，很快每個人都會擁有相同的政治製度，這就是我的同事賽琳娜所說的 hego
和福山對曆史終結的描述，即隻有一個連貫的政治結構，世界上所有的國家，無論地理起源如何，最終都會趨同，這給了美國很大的希望，隨著中國通過其成熟的行為而成長，中國會變得像他們一樣，不會有意識形態的對抗，不會有地緣政治差異，每個人都會有相同的政治，經濟學是那個偉大想法的鏡子，經濟學說，你應該追求經濟效率和比較優勢，中國提供了廉價的勞動力，願意進行工業化，這與世界其他國家的願望相輔相成，特別是美國，這導致了相互聯係無意的凝聚力 聯合 全球政治和經濟 國際貿易是雙贏的 中國的增長是雙贏的，因為地緣政治趨同 但後來發生了一些事情 我們達到了那個頂峰，而那個頂峰不在中國 80% 的美國 那個頂峰發生在 2010 年 全球金融危機爆發兩年後 地緣政治態度從接觸轉向競爭 世界從聯合轉向分裂 一些轉變是意識形態的 中國在發展過程中沒有表現出政治趨同 它仍然堅定地堅持馬克思列寧主義 事實上，根據我的同事 Selena 的說法 這就是今天中國發展的動力 因此，西方許多人認為地緣政治趨同的錯誤想法令人沮喪和失望 然後作為一名經濟學家，對我來說中國衝擊
中國衝擊是中國經濟在製造業和出口方麵變得如此強大，以至於世界其他國家都為之震驚，在美國，你看到的是鋼鐵工人、汽車製造業工人環顧四周，說中國賣給我們鋼鐵汽車、中國出口的其他產品、電腦、紡織品，你能提到的所有東西的價格，相對於美國製造的其他所有東西，美國從加拿大或墨西哥進口的其他所有東西，都是低的，對於經濟學家來說，這就是中國衝擊，它們在美國引起了深深的不安全感，當你把某樣東西的價格定得比我能做的低時，你就是在搶走我的生意，你在偷走我的工作，你在摧毀我的行業，通過這種方式，你把曾經繁榮的美國中產階級社區變成了鬼城，不僅中國在政治上沒有融合，讓弗蘭克·福山、西莫·利佩特、比爾·克林頓和其他一係列思想家大失所望，中國在經濟上挑戰美國，這種挑戰並不是美國獨有的每一個生產與中國競爭的商品的社會
你們現在都處於危險之中，在這種情況下，經濟學家應該做的是說別擔心
這意味著你們在製造鋼鐵汽車方麵效率不高，我會教你們編程電腦
大約 15 年後，你們都會成為優秀的電腦程序員，你們將再次能夠與中國競爭，這是一個沒有人相信的故事，所以中國的巨大衝擊是先漲後跌
問題是我們未來該怎麽做，這就是我的結束語
目標顯然不是
每個大國都隻是盡力做到最好
中國想要發展，它應該發展，讓人民擺脫貧困
美國不想讓人民感到不安全，也不應該這樣，我們需要
能夠想出一種方法來解決這個問題，所以我們在世界其他國家的問題是不要偏袒
因為每個人都是對的，問題是我們應該做什麽
所以讓我以我們可以做的三件聰明的事情來結束，記住我說過這一切的開始都是無意的呃無意的合作我們應該回到那個問題上我們應該嚐試找到無意合作的領域讓我給出兩個好吧無意的合作意味著你心中有一個目標這與這裏發生的事情無關但在追求那個目標的過程中你最終會合作因為現在考慮到緊張局勢全麵合作是不可能的我們不能到處告訴世界哦請合作因為否則我們會死我們在一條駛向冰山的船上如果不合作我們都會沉沒這不管用你必須尋找各國可以再次無意合作的方法這裏有兩個一個是全球氣候危機世界上每個國家都感到受到中國生產電池電動汽車的威脅他們想製定工業政策這將有助於他們的行業好吧世界上每個人都擔心當美國實踐工業政策時會遭到報複其他國家將實行產業政策，讓我說，經濟學家不允許說的，這有什麽不好的，如果美國的產業政策能使其生產出更好的電池，電動汽車將轉向可再生能源，這樣做會讓歐洲和中國感到非常不舒服，他們實施更多的產業政策來改進他們的電池和電動汽車，我從旁觀者的角度說，這就是我們將如何通過無意的合作拯救世界，我對小國推動大國擺脫困境的另外兩個想法，當你看到兩個大國互相撞擊時，你想要做的不一定是完全避開，而是推動他們遠離困境，說服他們，他們不必這樣做，隻需發出冷靜、令人安心的聲音，最後，我要說的是，多邊主義是建立世界理念的一部分，在那個無意的合作中，鑒於地緣政治的現狀，這一課不再適用，但將有一種探路者多邊主義，這非常重要對於新加坡來說，非常重要的一點是，新加坡的進出口額占國內生產總值的 300%，能夠再次與其他國家在公平的競爭環境中進行貿易，如果我們不能同時為全世界做到這一點，那就為子群體做到這一點，讓我們為探路者多邊主義做到這一點，這些就是我的想法，非常感謝您的關注，我現在想花幾分鍾時間，嗯，如果每個小組成員都想在與其他人對峙時提出一些熱點問題，如果沒有，我想邀請觀眾向我們提出他們的問題，所以我認為這裏有一致的意見，因為正如李先生所說，你們中的許多人都非常前衛專家們，是的，先生，請走到麥克風前，快速說一下您是誰，然後問您的問題，我的名字在這裏，我一直在關注這些事情，想著幾個問題，相對於世界其他國家，您認為中國人的競爭力是否過強，46 年後，T 購物來推動失敗的中國經濟，為什麽中國的產品領導者不能用英語與世界其他國家交流，我認為這比隻說中文更能幫助他們展示軟實力，非常感謝您的問題，兩個非常精確的問題，如果可以的話，讓我在這個小組裏回答它們，李先生，也許您可??以回答第一個問題，是的，謝謝你的問題，我認為第二個問題首先，為什麽他們不能說英語，實際上，根據我對 70 後的經驗，特別是 70 後和 80 後，我看到他們中的一些人在階層中不斷上升，他們說著非常好的英語，事實上，他們在西方大學學習，所以所以我希望，當他們有一天真的成為頂尖梯隊時，我認為他們的世界觀將大不相同，所以這就是即將到來的 Aang，呃你的第一個問題，呃第一個問題是什麽，中國人比競爭對手中國人比競爭對手好，我們都是華裔，我的意思是我們大多數人，所以你知道我們知道我們重視教育，你有虎人綜合症，你知道，你周末有時間上基礎課程，你知道你每天工作 18 個小時，你不會發現它錯了，對吧，我的意思是，所以它在中國文化中根深蒂固，重視教育，而且，你知道，當你有一個係統以一種富有成效的方式組織人們時，你將培養出大量的工程師和智力，這將是推動經濟發展所必需的，所以我你不能這麽說哦，請呃，采用 8 到 5 規則，你知道像澳大利亞一樣，如果你如果你的老板不應該在什麽時間之後給你發信息，周末等等，你不能發信息，因為這不是中國文化，所以從這個意義上說，DNA 是有幫助的，對，所以我認為嗯，但當然，現在房間裏有一頭大象，如果大象進入遊泳池，由於它的大小，遊泳池裏會灑出很多水，所以我認為這是他們必須找到讓世界感受到的方法，你知道他們有機會，所以中國公司在其他大陸投資，創造就業機會，分享利益，這將是一個富有成效的前進方式，謝謝 Le heni 先生，我想回到中國人說英語的問題，以及它如何影響軟實力，我一直在思考這個問題，我問自己，為什麽印度人在美國、歐洲和英國等地表現如此出色美國的東亞裔美國人表現不佳，中國人表現也不好，我認為印度受英國殖民統治已有 250 多年，他們把孩子送到英國的寄宿學校，他們設立寄宿學校，比如欽奈的聖史蒂文斯學校，伊頓學校等，印度精英大君都想成為英國人，加入俱樂部等，所以他們了解文化，習慣於和外國人交談，中國實際上從未被殖民過，除了沿海的租界，當蒙古人來了，摩奴來了，清朝成了中國，蒙古人固守自己的國家，雇傭其他人為他們管理國家，所以中國人在某種意義上非常文化沒有被淡化，他們無法理解西方，所以你可以學習英語，他們上大學，但他們學習科學，主要是數學，沒有文化內容在美國，我經常被問到，陳大使，為什麽中國人在與西方人交談時，總是用手指指著我們，揮舞著手指，西方人覺得這很具攻擊性，我說，哦，就像意大利人一樣，你知道，他們握手，而中國人隻是指著自己，這不是個人恩怨，他們也會互相指指點點，你知道，甚至指家人，但這是一種文化衝突，我真的認為這是因為中國沒有被殖民過，殖民時期非常不同，我認為這就是為什麽他們今天沒有被殖民，因為世界是西方的，德國文化已經存在了很長時間，你必須了解這種文化的一部分，謝謝你，亨尼，我的意思是，我可以順便提一下，我的意思是，在新加坡，人們最初也麵臨著與英語世界接觸的挑戰，有人試圖消滅新加坡式英語，因為當時的方言被認為不合適，然後人們大力推行英語，所以現在我們有能說會道的英語的人，中國也可以我們會這樣做，事實上，從中國向美國
和英國西歐派遣的人數來看，它正在培養新一代人，我的朋友 Kug Jin，像 Eric Lee 和其他人一樣，他們的英語表達能力和說服力不亞於中文，或者也許我隻是接受了你關於中國人是否過於競爭的觀點，我認為正確的問題是，為什麽我們建立的
係統如此脆弱，以至於一個稍微更有競爭力的群體最終被視為破壞了整個係統，我們應該思考如何
建立係統，以便更多的競爭，任何人都可以帶來的盡可能多的競爭對係統有益，理想情況下，我們可以考慮這樣的方法，我的意思是
這就是亞當·斯密所說的亞當·斯密 200 年前說過，我們期待餐桌上的晚餐不是因為我們認為人們彼此友好，他們是仁慈的，而是
來自屠夫、麵包師和釀酒師，他們期待關注關注他們的自身利益，保證經濟市場的正常運轉，我們需要建立這樣的係統，所以我可以嗎，嗯，是的，請，然後，你自己謝謝，然後，嗯，zel，我，首先，我要說，首先，我要感謝liwanu學校舉辦這個節日，今天是我們前總理劉誌軍的生日，是的，101歲了，我個人非常感謝他，新加坡也非常感謝他，特別是在我們對中國的了解方麵，我認為，在開放中國和當時的旅行中，我是brarian馬來報的編輯，但liuan先生，你總是強調，當我們去中國時，代表團總是由多種族組成，包括編輯，所以我很榮幸能成為這個團隊的一員，但我也想向李先生強調，我們這裏不都是中國人我是新加坡人，但不是全華人，我想說的是，我剛從美國中央情報局回來，在那裏呆了兩個星期，我們和我以前的同學一起去，他們選擇參觀新昌，因為他們有穆斯林背景，我想問一個問題，你如何看待中國應對你們都討論過的挑戰，特別是美國，但在這種情況下，你是否認為中國會轉向穆斯林世界的那部分，以增進與世界其他國家的理解和關係，但話雖如此，我還想問另一個關於新加坡角色的問題，我剛才聽到的真的很棒，很棒的想法，新加坡中國想知道為什麽新加坡 70% 的華人應該更像中國人，而不是更接近美國，但我們認為新加坡是多種族的，更接近世界挑戰的現實，你如何看待新加坡在這種背景下的角色，新加坡能否發揮作用，讓中國更好地了解世界，最終關於學習中文學習英語的觀點我在那裏也有同樣的感受我在那裏交流有困難但後來我問自己為什麽不學普通話當然中國也必須學習英語並學習世界其他文化但我認為我們已知的中國人也可以學習和理解中國更好謝謝你謝謝Z謝謝你是的讓我們來談談其他一些問題請問你想嗎嗯有麥克風我們可以很快把一個拿來讓其他人都能聽到我我聽得很清楚但其他人也想聽你說話不我隻是想在這裏發表評論因為人工智能技術進步如此之快今天開始發生你可以用任何語言說話是的我們同時翻譯成多種語言所以想要翻譯成馬來語的人坐在一邊非洲另一邊如果你回答同樣的事情你可以用任何語言回答它可以翻譯成任何語言說話者謝謝你所以這一天即將到來所以這是好消息非常感謝謝謝你呃先生，請提問，好的，我的名字是 pun oza，非常感謝你舉辦這次活動，我真的很喜歡這次談話，我是一名學生，同時也是一名地緣政治和航運老師，因為這是我的職業，所以很明顯這很有趣，我隻是想從你們所有人的角度來看待一個特定的觀點，至少在一些中國朋友和其他朋友中已經傳播開來，他們說，中國今天麵臨的挑戰更多的是因為混亂，這是因為一個國家有兩個係統，有一個集中的決策計劃經濟係統，同時有很多私人舉措推動著增長和潛在增長，當這兩者在某一時刻發生碰撞時，混亂基本上會給你帶來最大的中國未來麵臨的挑戰是，你們所有人的觀點都是正確的，非常感謝，萊恩，在我轉向小組討論之前，我能先問你一個問題嗎，謝謝丹尼，這是一個快速的問題，特別是在你提到中國公司都出去了，否則你就會死，他們來到牙山有兩個原因，一是更好地進入市場，不僅是牙山市場，還有歐洲和美國市場，這些市場的限製性更強，另一個是在一定程度上繞過美國對中國實施的出口管製，那麽這是否會轉化為我們對新加坡等國家施加更大的壓力，停止幫助中國獲得
出口管製限製技術，例如，電腦芯片，非常感謝萊恩，李先生，我可以再次和你開始嗎，我們有很多問題，所以，隨便挑一個，淩的問題，對吧，新加坡會停止幫助中國嗎，我認為我們的公司正在根據現有的情況進行調整嗯，根據 WTO 的安排，你知道
根據雙邊和多邊自由貿易協定，他們會想出辦法，你知道如果直接出口
太高，他們會去另一個國家，然後你知道，航運公司等受益
嗯，他們會找到阻力最小的路徑，所以如果這個
關稅結構再次發生變化，那麽我認為公司將不得不再次調整，所以新加坡是否會幫助這些公司並不重要，我們隻是盡可能讓自己的商業環境友好，以
接收任何可以利用新加坡的企業，你知道，以繁榮發展，我認為回到問題上
你知道中央政府和企業之間的平衡，確實如此，這是一個常見的觀察，在過去的 10 12 年裏，有一種現象叫做 soe 前進，但 Poe 後退，好吧，所以是的，S soe 前進和 po嗯，撤退意味著私營部門的作用越來越小，嗯，至少人們的情緒是這樣的，對吧，很多重要的重大針頭移動項目將由國有企業完成，但你有沒有說過，這是有資質的，因為很多電動汽車製造商，你知道，今天他們是 Poes，對吧，但是中國政府一直想在告訴你該做什麽方麵發揮更大的作用，這與我們在西方世界和新加坡習慣的做法完全相反，我們認為政府應該隻做這件事，然後讓市場蓬勃發展，你知道，行使他們的判斷力和主動性，所以我認為嗯，這確實是今天的一種情緒，這種情緒並不能激發人們對持續投資的信心，我可以邀請你談談嗎，我想我會回答 zel 的問題，因為你已經回答了其他問題，問題是中國將如何處理中東問題因為它想接觸並建立一些影響力和合作，這肯定是打破他們所認為的西方的一種方式，美國帶領其北約盟友試圖限製中國，呃，它有這個桑問題，他們將如何處理穆斯林，事實上，我曾經問過一位中國官員，為什麽中國不向新加坡、馬來西亞或印度尼西亞尋求建議，這些國家都是穆斯林占多數的國家，他們如何處理激進的伊斯蘭教，你知道，我說這仍然有可能，可能還不算太晚，我沒有得到答案，因為我認為這超出了他的薪酬等級，但呃，但我認為中國必須解決這個問題，就你所知，我一直保持沉默，沙特阿拉伯、中東國家、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞，他們沒有把桑發生的事情當成問題，主要是因為它是分裂主義的，我向我解釋過，因為它是一個分裂主義派別，大多數這些國家本身都反對分裂主義，但我認為中國為了自身的自尊心和進一步接觸世界其他國家的能力，必須解決桑的問題，我不認為這是種族滅絕，我認為這是侵犯人權，嚴重侵犯人權，所以這是一個中國如何尋求解決這個問題的問題，否則，它總是會成為全麵合作的障礙，謝謝，他，Selena，是的，讓我回答，也許我會把業務問題留給你們兩個，我右邊左邊右邊，嗯，我會回答 Z 的問題，嗯，除了中國大使所說的，我認為還有這個 Rich，嗯，這個公共關係外展，中國正在向穆斯林國家進行公共外展，就桑的情況而言，他們嗯，你知道，邀請了印度尼西亞和馬來西亞的宗教領袖和穆斯林團體來訪問桑，並向你們展示知道所有這些事情都沒有發生，但我認為有一件事我們必須做，如果我們退後一步，這裏還涉及到其他事情，嗯，改善我們與穆斯林世界的關係，我想這是我們想做的事情，但我們知道中國與印度尼西亞和馬來西亞的關係實際上相當好，特別是在經濟領域，這也與此有很大關係，所以這是外交政策的一部分，呃，與宗教問題略有不同，我認為中國在中東的參與不僅僅是宗教問題，還有大國管理，我剛才談到大國管理世界，管理世界意味著什麽，這意味著你將自己插入有衝突和暴力的地方，然後你扮演調解角色，我認為這是它在全球崛起的一部分，也是他的全球野心的一部分，它以美國的方式在中東紮根，在美國無法達成協議的地方，比如早些時候伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之間，所以它已經將自己插入在大國管理中扮演大國的角色，在美國無法感受到的空間中，我認為這是需要記住的重要事情，向穆斯林世界和中東拓展新加坡，因為我們已經過時了，新加坡在讓中國更好地了解世界方麵發揮的作用，我認為我們在翻譯方麵發揮了很長一段時間的作用，試圖突破成為會議點，但我認為在當前的氣候下，這種作用仍然存在，但可能不像過去那樣，過去中國願意學習，在講課的時候，中國是學生，現在是老師，我認為它認為自己是一名老師，我認為我們需要記住這一點，我們應該小心我們如何處理這個問題，以及我們扮演什麽樣的角色，易，你想跳過，我隻是想補充一下，我沒有回答這一點，我同意賽琳娜的觀點，中國實際上已經發展了，它已經成長了，當他們達到西方國家正在與中國對話，他們已經建立了許多對話，數百次對話，他們不需要新加坡，但我認為，當中國與西方國家之間出現如此多的困難，並試圖讓西方理解和讚賞它正在做的事情時，新加坡可以發揮作用，我知道這一點，因為中國智庫團體已經來到新加坡，並問你是否可以幫助建立美國和中國之間的對話，因為新加坡實際上受到美國的信任，而且你在中國有中國渠道，所以我現在不會否認我們的作用，但我們至少應該謙虛和謙遜，我們能發揮多大作用，嚐試幫助建立對話總是好的，因為雙方可以互相交談，你知道，雖然新加坡似乎很支持，但我認為即使中國也明白，新加坡領導人不時在重要論壇上為中國發聲，敦促西方也與中國對話，我記得李先賢總理在任總理時在尼克論壇上說過，你知道我明白一些誌同道合的人將組成一個團體來應對未來的挑戰，指的是美國正在組建的所有這些小多邊組織，他說，但你實際上是否與你的潛在對手建立了信任建設措施，你知道，這種說法對中國有幫助嗎？謝謝亨尼，如果可以的話，我隻想就林的問題說幾句話，但也許方向略有不同，我認為對我們其他人來說，一個很大的陷阱是，認為在這場美中對抗中，我們可以直接參與，是的，做生意，我們可以成為中國加一，這樣當美國真的厭倦了中國時，就會把我們當作加一，嗯，我想說的是，如果你認為美國與中國的問題不是個人問題，那麽它麵臨的中國衝擊帶來的正麵挑戰，中國的出口並不是中國獨有的，每當它看到一個競爭性經濟體以挑戰美國霸權的方式向美國出口時，它就會做出反應，我們在日本看到了這一點。 20 世紀 90 年代和 21 世紀，日本是美國經濟政策的頭號敵人，當時的日本不是中國，日本是美國太平洋聯盟的堅定盟友，日本的整個軍隊都受到美國國防部的保護，盡管如此，美國認為日本在冰箱、汽車、消費電子產品出口方麵的進步對美國經濟構成了威脅，所以如果我們中的任何一個人這麽想，你知道中國和我們有麻煩了，我可以成為越南，我可以成為墨西哥我可以成為另一個人來
接管中國出口到美國的產品我可以成為加分項
嗯，我擔心的是經濟學告訴我們什麽不會發生我們需要采取另一種策略一種更具建設性的策略有助於讓美國和中國再次走到一起嗯我很想
有更多的問題因為這很有趣我希望這對每個人來說都很有趣但我們的時間已經到了我剩下的唯一要說的是邀請你和我一起感謝這個精彩的小組
謝謝小組成員呃我們現在可以邀請他們到前麵進行集體照嗎同時我們要感謝大家參加本次節日會議，下一次大廳會議將於下午 12:15 開始。與此同時，請隨意探索 BTC 校園並參加我們為您準備的一些友好活動，從我們的研究到遺產展覽，再到我們的“極速前進”，20 位幸運兒將有機會贏得 20 份價值 120 美元的獎品，我們希望您也餓了，因為我們在後麵的學生休息室設有食品站，如果您願意，您可以去那裏吃點東西和喝點飲料，謝謝

Festival of Ideas 2024- The China Shock at the End of History

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPL1NcM7i1Q

2024年10月10日

US-China rivalry might well become a constant in our lifetimes. Some observers already take this Great Power competition as a given and suggest only we adapt to it as best we can. If, however, there is to be hope of its resolution, we need to understand how this rivalry developed. Once, the world was set on engagement, now it appears only to be about Great Powers balancing against one another. What can we say about the root causes underlying US-China rivalry? What were the markers that should have been detected in the retreat from engagement? Our panelists address these questions from a range of different perspectives and ask how there might be ways out of this gridlock. Find out more about the Festival of Ideas https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/news-events... and for enquiries, please contact LKYSPP Events Team via email: [e-mail]

What is Festival of Ideas

The world today is mired in a polycrisis that threatens the foundations of shared prosperity and progress. More than ever, we need good governance within nations in Asia and across the international community. Ideas matter. They must be grounded in research and communicated to decision makers and the wider public to bring about change.

This has been the mission of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy since its establishment twenty years ago. As we mark this milestone, we invite you to engage with our faculty, students and partners on the transformative ideas and issues reshaping our world in the Festival of Ideas 2024.

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okay um let's begin good morning everyone welcome to the booket Tima
Campus of the Lian you School of public policy and welcome to this Festival of
ideas this is um one of the two opening sessions for the festival the festival
is a weekl long event that the leanu school organizes every other year the purpose of the festival is that it is an engagement with the local
community here in the BK Tima area but in Singapore more broadly and indeed an engagement with the rest of the world at the festival we welcome
students from neighborhood JC's at the same time that we welcome
world-renowned academics and thought leaders from all around the
world the festival is an engagement on the great ideas and the most pressing
issues of our time it is an occasion where the school gets to showcase our
thinking our PhD and Master's students uh display their work our
faculty and colleagues both from from the school itself but our colleagues
from all around the world engage in conversation this is all part of the
school mission that we Inspire change makers and Leadership we help improve
the well-being of people around us and further a field and we help transform
Asia through the experience of good governance the session here this morning
is about the China shock at the end of History what we will do is we will have
a series of opening statements from four of us and then
after that we will engage in conversation both with among the four of us and with you the audience I will not repeat uh information that you already have in brochures and that brought you here but uh I would now just like to welcome to the stage Professor Chan heni Professor Selena ho Mr Lee Shen please join me in welcoming my colleagues to the stage we will begin in alphabetical order with a short opening statement from each of the panelists on this on this that we're going through the US China rivalry and what we do with it going forwards Ambassador Professor Chan

Professor Chan

please thank you good morning ladies and gentlemen I hope I will be short I don't know I'm a little disorganized but uh we've had three China shocks since the end of history that is since the end of the Cold War the first shock is a rapid and Relentless rise of China especially since its entry into WTO economically first for China because it brought about great transformation and it also had great geopolitical and geoeconomic implications for the rest of the world I think the US United States and Europe never foresaw what the rise of China would mean in terms of China being the factory of the world it was good for everybody until it wasn't good for everybody uh you know Napoleon said of China let China sleep for when she wakes she will shake the
world and Lewan Yu in fact I looked at one of his old tapes in 1980 at the
feton square rally said you know of China and this is 1980 two years after
China's entry into the world the four modernizations Etc and T XA Ping's visit
to Singapore he saw what was happening in shinin and he said look at shinin
what the Chinese are doing just watch it grow then he also said in the same
speech China is today buying boeings from the United States and Trident from
uh Britain in two to three three generations China will be building its own planes one generation is about 25 years or 20 years so in 40 50 years China will be building its own play absolutely correct you've just seen the c919 being unveiled so that is the China shock but let me put it again in another way the first shop do you know in 1980 that's 2 years just after modernization so it does count China is finding its way through it share of the world GDP was 2.7% in 2001 I take it one year after WTO its share of the world economy was 3.9% United States was 31.3% Europe 31 21.3% Japan 13.9% in 2023 and this includes some of
the problems China has been going through China's share of the world economy was 16.9% America from 31% in 2001 has become in 2023 26.1% Europe is
17.5% dropped also and Japan is 4% of the world's economy China and
Europe Europe as a whole China as a single economy vies for a second place
as share of the world economy and in recent years because of what's happening in China with the difficulties I think its share of the world economy is dropped some so United States is sitting pretty at about 25 26% so that's what it means is that shock from 2.7% in 1980 to now about 17% of the world
economy there are other figures I can give you the Share of the trading economy but I don't have time the second shock that China delivered was that China's rise triggered an intense competition between the United States and China not seen since the end of the Cold War clearly it is about dominance in the world order first it began as a trade War a tech then it was investment War then it was a technology War you know military competition and so on as George yo said very soon it'll be a hot War you know but it's different Wars but
it's about dominance in the world system and it is about values and it is about
soft power and recently in the last year or so it's been more clear who sets the
rules of the world order now this is structural and so this rivalry this
competition will not end anytime soon and it will not end no matter whether
the United States votes for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is whether is a
little bit more predictable or totally unpredictable those who say China should
have stuck to Peaceful RS I say are wrong because because even if they said
China said we believe in peaceful rise nobody will believe China in fact when I was in the United States in the 1990s early 2000s Americans said to me oh yeah they say peaceful rise this is stage one wait till China gets stronger will they still stick to Peaceful rise so there's no point you know they can't hide the light under the bushill they cannot say they believe in peaceful rise shock number three is the rapid slide and difficulties of the Chinese economy we've seen China grow so rapidly so in the last few years when we saw China's economy spluttering doing so badly that's a shock too goodness is this China and in America there are analysts who say China Peak China Peak China is going to slide and go down from now on so what is the real ch China so this is the third shock that China has developed that it can rise so fast and suddenly things seem to unravel so
quickly and on top of it we hear about its declining population and the Aging
population mind you the whole world is aging and the whole world is declining you know demographers said in 2080 world's population would have peaked all of us would have declining populations so it's not just China with the
declining population but I think the declining population aging population with the slowing economy presents challenges for investors and for China so how do you reach China is it completely failing if you read Financial Times New York Times these days there's no good news that comes out of China but
let me tell you that there are some reports which very few pick up and when they do it just floats away and that is that firste cities in China are in trouble second third fourth fifth year cities in China are doing quite okay you know not all cities but many of the cities are doing okay now um I have some data from think China which is the uh ja's um publication on China and it shows that retail sales in these second third tier cities are rising you know not all but most of them if you take 36
cities three are falling behind the rest are going up tier two tier three I have
the figures here the reference if you want is 9th of September 2024 for
Scholars year that's your reference think China look up the data you know
and uh also the growth is not bad and further if you say oh think China Le her
is pro-china let me cite you Economist data The Economist on June 6 2024 had an
issue which was you know move over Beijing you know watch out for the
second and tier second and third tier cities but you see it came as one
article and nobody put things together but um
I have no time Danny I just came across this yesterday and I was too lazy to put it into a slide you know but uh the uh economies of the second and third tier cities are generally the figures show they growing cha ching they all are near
7.78% growth in these cities is like 6.5 Chu Shen okay but
Beijing and Shanghai guango is below the national average not guangong
but Beijing and Shanghai okay and in the and the population
changes population is growing in Chuan Wuhan so on aing losing population chuning kind of stopped and Chang just 0.06 so Mo things are moving to the second third tier City some movement there and it makes sense because China's Now growth model emphasizes Advanced manufacturing and the green economy and a lot of this is going up to the second and third tier City so that's where people are going also so I was the thing China article
says that people are spending in the second and third tier cities because in tier one all the property tier one cities money is tied up in property and it's so high then it collapsed and you have your Tech entrepreneurship the tech Talent Financial Talent Etc they are so tied up and all these sad stories the taning and so on people are going to the firste cities and getting most of the feedback there but I I this doesn't mean China is sort of boobing like that and some Skeptics say can the advanced manufacturing AI Etc and green economy replace or create the same growth as the infrastructure property infrastructure Etc of the past
e-commerce probably not so it's slowing down a bit but it's not flat and not not
growing this is China so what I'm trying to say is that that is another narrative and we should look at this China is not a hopeless case and it's changing clearly the model is changing so I do not know what will come at the end of it I better wind up soon because I'm exceeding my time so the question is one will China recover
two if China's economy is weakening does that lighten the competition between the United States and China I for one don't think so because there are some people saying in the US well if it's down why don't you put it out you know so you strength and put china 5 10 years behind so uh the question is are we moving to a decoupled world is this going to be a cold war I'll leave Selina to talk about about that but I think we have to remember I have always said the United States is a resilient country don't underestimate the United States in the same way I will say China is a resilient country don't underestimate China and when China's growth picks up again you will find people flocking back to Hong Kong and flocking back to China because the world the Europe and China and the United States does not want to miss out on a piece of the action so what is the role of small and medium siiz size States in this contentious time I would say we can do nothing if the United States does not themselves see that it is not in their interest to go to war if they feel if the United
States and China feel it is not in their interest to go to war small states
mediumsized states can do something and we are all trying Building Bridges creating forums for track to conferences
and there's a lot of that going on now but and since the San
Francisco Summit Americans say there's a flaw put to how low the relationship can
fall you ask Americans they say relationship has stabilized I've spoken to the Chinese counterparts and they say
relationship has stabilized I think they hope it will stabilize you know and uh
but and Jake Sullivan has said
we now in Bali president siin ping told Biden President Biden that China does
not seek to change the exist interfere in the internal affairs
of the US and has has no intention to challenge or displace the United States
this was repeated in San Francisco scope as well the United States does not believe in the statement at all so I
think there will be this pushing back and forth we should work in small bikes of time I would say small little forums
you cannot have a strategy and a plan for a decade how you bring
you because confidence building is a stepbystep measure and even then this is
hard my last point is that once we can build a bridge you are seeing a number
of countries emerging what I call countries that are entering a third space India is one of them and Indonesia
I think Singapore tries where you want to have good relationships all around
you can have alignment India has alignment on the quad indopacific strategy but it is not
exclusive it still has a relationship with Russia so this third space when it grows I think will help to blend the
Rivalry between the two sides thank
you thank you very much hchi for um such an excellent opening to our session you
talked about the three shocks you talked about geographical rebalancing in China and then you gave us some optimism on a
way ahead with a very nuanced uh subtle discussion about possible strategies I'd
now like uh to invite Professor Selena ho to pick up the conversation thank you very much can I speak from here yeah
absolutely I great uh thanks Daddy and um uh thank you for being here and it's a real pleasure to be on this panel uh
and a real honor to um uh I'm glad that I'm actually speaking right after
Ambassador Chan because a lot of her remarks resonate with me but also because I want to um you know she
addresses the systemic or the structural view as as we know it in us China
rivalry what I really want is to look at the domestic drivers and uh in particular I'm interested in um uh the
Chinese angle so I'm looking I'm going to talk about the Chinese perspective of this this rivalry um but you know um
well I mean the title is the China shock at the end of History so rightfully speaking about China is correct um but
you know just let me I think that Ambassador Chan taks a a really good um gave a very good uh dissecting of the
China shock the three shocks but let me speak a little bit about the end of history and I have some you know
students in the audience if I were in the classroom I be dissecting and unpacking these terms right now at the end of History some of you may or may
not have know about it and it's been used quite a lot in in different circles but the end of history is actually
popularized by a book that Francis fukiyama wrote uh it's in 1992 right
after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of Communism in uh in Europe
so it was uh it it was called the end of history and the last man now this idea
the end of History actually did not come from fukiyama himself he popularized it but it's an idea that concept that has
been put out there by Western philosophers and in particular German philosopher uh Hegel okay now the idea
of the hand of history is not the end of the world just to be clear it's different from the end of the world it's
the end of history in a sense that that human progression is such that at the end of of history there will be a
political system or ideology that will prevail so that's the background to the title of China shock at the end of
History which is a very fantastic idea that you came up with Danny by the way um uh I really like it um and we can
discuss end of History the merits of fugama uh you know uh or dis merits of his arguments later on a discussion but
let me quickly dive into my my remarks and my remarks are actually organized around three main question questions um
the first question is what are the drivers of Chinese foreign policy second
question is what is what is the kind of international order or intern or world order that China wants and what does
this you know does Chinese Ambitions uh what what are these Ambitions and what Chinese Ambitions and the US reluctance
to equ to Chinese Ambitions what does this mean for the rest of us uh for the rest of the world and for our future
okay so let me let me look at the first drive the the first question drivers of Chinese foreign
policy now one of the key I think misunderstandings and misperception and
the lack of this communication between China and the US is that um sometimes I
think they don't understand the domestic politics of the other side very well and um we we actually really need to
understand this rivalry in a sense that looking at within China itself we need to search for these drivers within China
now what are by ask asking this very first question what are Chinese domestic priorities and I think when uh president
C and um when he came into office in 2012 2013 he came into office looking at
you know Society economy and the CCP the Chinese Communist party and the
direction is going and I think they saw something which he's not very happy with
and the group around him they are not very happy with so he had three remakes he want to remake three things the first
is to remake Chinese economy now uh what does that mean well China does not like
a free willing economy that's completely driven by market forces I think they
recognize the need for Market forces but they don't want it to be completely driven by market forces it does not like
the uneven development and the inequalities that come with this Market
forces and so they don't they don't look at the West they look at the west and they say you know this is not what we
want we don't want this inequalities we don't want this uneven development we want something more stable more equal
and hence we have the term common Prosperity okay so this is why in a
sense you see um the SE uh government and his uh those around him targeting
private businesses and firms they have gotten too big and powerful uh so they
have to they want to control this businesses so that it becomes too so powerful that they will challenge the
Chinese Communist party or the Chinese State I think that's a key point and China wants the other thing in economy
is a dual circulation economy that's the other thing that you hear very often now what does that mean it means really a
closing off of the Chinese economy and but more importantly the desire for self-reliance and I think this desire
for self-reliance is it predates the trade war in 2016 it predates the US
China rivalry trade war in 2016 and so we we need to understand the first
domestic priority is remake Chinese economy the second priority is to remake
Chinese Society again you know the sea leadership and his you know his team
came in into power and saw a society that he thinks is deteriorating a society that is not ideologically pure
enough it has it wanted to keep out Western thought uh it wanted to keep out ideas of liberal ideas capitalist ideas
and and bring ideological Purity back and sense you have things like things
like social rebalancing that's been used here and um the social credit system now
why do we have that well essentially is to control society and the Chinese have really been very good in controlling Society through the use of technology and that's that's pretty amazing in the way that they have withered that um and but basically it created a w of society from the rest of the world to keep out the elements that the Chinese leadership does not want now the third remake that this the Chinese Communist Party have is to remake the CCP itself again the sense is that the CCP has lost its way it's lost its ideological Purity is further and has gone too far in the liberal way in the western sense right so the they you have all these anti-corruption campaigns ideological correctness the stress on ideological correct correct thought so these three remix now why these three remix why these priorities essentially it boys down to one thing and that is to enhance the legitimacy ensure the survival of the CCP regime this need to enhance legitimacy and the survival of the regime and the party drives Chinese foreign policy so Chinese foreign policy gos essentially
in a very broad scheme of things is to ensure two things to ensure the legitimacy of the CCP and to make the
world safe for different forms of government and not just democratic governments but make the world safe also
for authoritarian or autocratic governments now that's the first uh uh answer to the
first question now the second question is what kind of world order does China want now China has in my opinion a haral
worldview he's it sees great Powers as ruling the world and jointly manage
managing the world we call this great power management great Powers managing the world and hence you know you see um
presidency uh uh proposing the idea of a G2 right a G2 with the United States
during the Obama Administration that that idea has flown out of the window by now but the idea is that the two
greatest Powers the United States and China leading the rest of the world and managing Affairs right so what it really
wants at the end of the day is really parity with China it wants its authority to be recognized as legitimate it wants
a world order where it has greater say and it wants a world order that's commensurate with its size
now it key grievance is that the United States and its allies have not accorded it the status the respect and the
position is entitled to because his political system and ideology are different this is his key grievance okay
now um I actually unlike Ambassador Chan I don't think that China wants uh Global
dominance and I don't I'm not sure whether that's what you meant um but I agree agree there is this fight for
Global dominance but I'm not sure that China itself really wants Global dominance I think that China does not
seek to overturn the international order it wants to be adjusted to it to be
adjusted Comm accommodate its rights and it be be recognized as the equal of the US this is the idea of parity to make it
safe for authoritarian systems to be accepted it wants recognition that the CCP is legitimate and has a right to
exist and to govern China so whether IR want's Global dominance is really a very
good big question I think it knows it's not quite there yet not yet okay it may
want parity now with the US and to have this idea of a G2 maybe in the next 10 to 20 years but what happens after that
that's the question mark who knows right um and I think in order to understand
where China is going in terms of its global global Ambitions it's very important to look at the developments in
domestic politics so any person who studies Chinese policy us China rivalry needs to look at Chinese domestic
politics now that's a difficult part understanding and and and trying to see what's going on in ch Chinese domestic
politics is very difficult now because the system has become even more opaque than than before um regionally
regionally right what is it that China wants and I think this is where China would want Regional dominance and by
that I meant is what I mean is that its preference is that there are no other
compet centers of power in Asia okay now just to be very clear this is what all
great powers do this is not unique to China that be China wants a region where
it can dominate that is not unique to China all great powers do that you see that United States doing that in Latin
America you see um Russia doing that in Europe Eastern Europe and you see India
doing that in South Asia is a very normal behavior that great powers do um so all great Powers want what is called
a sphere of influence in the region it is closest in is it is in or
is closest to so that its interests are not negatively impacted by a rival power
it wants the region to take into account its interests and prefaces and not take the side of a Ral we making policies so
this brings me to my third question what do all these developments Chinese Ambitions and us you know resistance to
and reluctance to to acces what China wants um the US does not want to
acknowledge China's status and the right of the CP CCP to exist and having an alternative form of government what I
what I want to say is that we are actually un unlikely to see a return to the old Cold War the old Cold War right
where alliances and blocks are really clear cut you know who is in whose Camp they are knowing between okay so which
is I mean there's a group the non- allign movement that tried to do that but in a very they usually slunt to one
side or another now in a way this this alliances and blocks being
clearcut actually produce order and stability because we know exactly where
each other stand but instead we are likely to see alliances and Partnerships that are fluid because Regional States
including us aies have deep economic linkages with China now the fluidity of
this emerging order and shifting alliances mean there's more uncertainty and dangers as misper ceptions and
miscalculations may may result so are we in a new Cold War well I think the jury is out on that
there's no clear answer there are similarities there are differences but but if there is a nuclear war it would
be different from the old it cannot be that in the world now and and we can see that you know the US and China need to
talk to each other there has there's a time where they didn't speak much but they have to eventually in San Francisco
and there after so it will not be it would be difficult for the US and China not to talk to each other uh as in the
days of the Iron Curtain a cold literally means you know you don't talk to each other right um so you're
unlikely to see that kind of return the old Cold War but we may have something new um on on that now let me end on a
brighter note and actually in agreement with Ambassador chanc last's point on small and middle Powers now small and
middle powers can provide the ballast as great Powers they can go fight it out
but we can provide the bestest Okay small and midle Powers have come together to ensure Glo Global Supply
Chain stability setting rules in technology and many other things that have done in digital economic
Partnerships etc etc I think that we are trying our best and we should continue
doing so thank
you thank you Selena for wonderfully stated position you told told us about
what drives China from inside what China wants the Contours of
what China's vision of an order is and how that is consistent with and not
consistent with what great powers like the United States Envision and then you
told us about some hopeful ways forwards as well in terms of what small and middle uh powers can do uh you've told
us about your view of how what will likely emerge thank you very much I'd now like to turn to Mr Lee who will
share with us his perspective I think from a lifetime of work in government and lifetime of work in actually
engaging with China Mr Lee over to you please thank you very much hello can you hear me yes good morning uh everyone and
uh it's a great pleasure for me to join you uh in this panel discussion if Danny
had told me uh who will be among the audience uh I may have a second thought about accepting this uh invitation
because there are so many experts and uh you know analysts uh of China in this
room uh I speak as a student of uh of China I uh started my Learning Journey
uh when I was posted to uh SoJO industrial park in 1997 so it's almost a 30 years of uh
visiting China and this year alone I visited China ninth time as I told
NL so in the week's time I'll do my 10th trip uh so I deal with uh government leaders
um um the the the businesses businesses and can be divided into the state Lo
Enterprises as well as the privately owned Enterprises Poes so I deal with
them both in Singapore and in China so I I will speak from that experience or
that limitation uh you know uh in terms of my
perspective my remarks will be three parts first is about China uh becoming
the second largest economy in 2010 we all know that uh you know China started
his uh uh reform and opening up in 1979 in fact uh in 2018 when I spoke at
the 40th anniversary of uh Chinese uh reform and opening up I said that uh it
was China was the uh most uh remarkable
economic uh hisory history you know they had the most remarkable economic
development in human history uh I don't think you can find another parallel so I
think in the 80s it grew uh 9.7% in the '90s it grew
10.5% and in the 2000s it grew another 10.5% although slowing down in the 2010s
with 7% but still you know spectacular growth rates in that 40 years so when
when I went to sucho in 1997 from the United States I spent 5 years before that I said
wow capitalist economy in the world uh you a't see anything yet until you go to
China you know at that time China is is quite like free for all so long you have
the idea and the law doesn't say no you can do it so for those of you who watch
the drama F right is exactly the kind of uh animals spirited uh you know energy being
mobilized in all levels of the society so U of course uh in that 40
years uh I think the key drivers were really the you know reform and opening up um I think a lot of us know that how
Singapore got involved when uh then PM Lee leanu visited China in 1976 and D
sha ping came in 78 and subsequently uh go kingu uh our that prime minister then
was appointed after he stepped down to the state Council as the economic advisor to advise on two things special
economic zones and tourism development uh so in that 40 years uh China had done a lot of Reform and it's
freedom and uh you know people exercise the Ingenuity and creativity and
resourcefulness and the system allow it so so you hear the phrase that uh to get
rich uh to get wealthy is glorious so that was uh really a golden period uh so
so back and forth I I experienced that you know kind of energy uh you know in
my work uh from both uh as a civil servant and then later on in the
politics uh and then later on private sector another driver then was also uh
the accession of China to WTO in 20101 so interestingly I was also
appointed uh to be the advisor of uh Shanghai to Affairs Council or something
in in that year so you know why why all of us outside China worried about how
Chinese cheap products may may dumb be dumb into our markets and and uh and
then therefore killing our you know ourmes in China is the other way around they all worried about you know foreign
products high quality coming in and destroy their their private sector so so it's a very interesting experience but
the rest is history I think China became the factory of the world um you know with the largest and most extensive
manufacturing uh capabilities I think you know those of you who use Apple phone will know that uh that exemplifies
the the strength uh and comprehensiveness of of Chinese supply
chain so okay so then we go on to the second period uh if you look closer from
2000 to 2000 to 2023 which is last year
I think in this period uh China uh and asan and Southeast Asia uh has gone
closer in terms of Economic and trade um in terms of Investments uh many Chinese
companies has started to relocate you know their uh labor intensive industry
into say Vietnam Cambodia uh you know and Indonesia
Malaysia and so on because to take advant AG of the relatively cheaper labor cost uh so it goes with uh very
simple uh household goods Furniture clothing textiles and then later on
followed by assembly of white goods another reason is also that uh asan
enjoys tariffs uh than the rest of the world so by relocating some of their
production Chinese own companies production to asan they enjoy the
differential uh in terms of uh uh tariff rates to say uh to say you know United
States a North American Market the other driver during this period 2000 and
20223 uh is also the Chinese plus one strategy uh from multinationals and this
became very pronounced uh after covid after what multinationals saw what
happened to China uh in terms and especially in Shanghai after the total lockdown so so companies are saying we
no longer can put all our supply chain in one place we better diversify our
risk and uh multinationals are telling their suppliers and some of their suppliers are Chinese companies uh to
say that hey look you know if you don't diversify away from China I'm not going to give you uh I'm no I'm only give you
50% of the order for next year or 70% or whatever you know so that China's plus
one strategy benefited asan and and you will read and from various reports that
Vietnam is a key beneficiary but it's not just Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia
Cambodia and know to certain extent LA and so on of course behind all this uh
there all always have been a uh kind of belt and Road initiative you know when
uh China uh wanted to export uh their infrastructure building know how uh to
to not just asan countries but you know to the
world of the stages of development they really need a lot of infrastructure many
countries are without Port without power plants without proper Road you know without without Rail and so on and these
are all key ingredients for for sustainable Economic Development so so
China fits into that road very well and and by the way uh when BR money goes
south from China to the rest of the world Singapore manage managed to capture about one3 of the of the capital
flow so which is which is good for us the third uh point I'd like to make
is uh about this long-term uh prospects for China asan relations um I think uh
in and Selena both talk about Sino us relations uh there's a very big picture
uh but closer to home um you know we I I'm very interested in how Singapore and
uh Singapore and asan with China will continue to develop uh our relations I
think the first point is uh asan has become the largest training partner
overtaking uh America and the EU uh two years ago for you know for China so
that's very significant China became the largest training partner to asan uh was
was history right I mean not just asan but 120 other countries in the world but
to be for asan to be the largest trading partner to the to to China is very
significant and I think this trend will continue uh not withstanding the fact
that China economies has slowed uh why because we have uh uh this
complementarities between the two region asan per capita income is uh from 1,5 us
to to 85,000 in Singapore so there's a whole range and China is about 13,000 us
so above uh two3 of uh asan countries so as far as China is concerned uh they
don't compete with asan you know countries per se that much in fact in
many area they are leading in terms of uh in terms of technology and supply chain uh but but given the fact that the
world is bifa uh and and the markets are setting up you know protectionist policy so the
Chinese Enterprise themselves not just multinationals will have to find ways to distribute their supply chain outside
China in order to continue to survive so two months ago I I receed a delegation
of the Home Furnishing Association from China so I remember the the president of
the association said that you either go out or you die all right so so the
this is the it Rhymes better in Chinese meaning that you you don't because
because for that industry they are tied to the property market right so they their order book is suddenly reduced by
50% and and then how I mean so many suppliers you know Home Furnishing there's a lot of you know related
industry in the Eco system so if they if they don't go out they will die you know so that's how how severe it is so they
they come out and Singapore will benefit from it because we we can't do the the low cost manufacturing but we come we
can become the headquarter for them uh you know uh marshalling resources and uh
becoming a command center so to speak um the others is also of course uh you know
as as hingi and Selena said before uh that the geopolitical Dynamics will will
will start to drive uh many businesses to think uh to think asan provided uh
provided asan ourselves remain neutral friendly to all parties and acceptable
to all parties so I think I I personally feel that uh China is a really a
long-term Factor you know after all is like like H said is 60% of the world
economy it is at your doorstep it is three and a half hours away uh from the nearest uh point of entry uh unlike the
US which is like 14 hours away to to across the Pacific so is there in fact
all of us will feel it because we see a lot more Chinese restaurants right of different uh Regional uh uh Cuisine kind
of emphasis in in Singapore on the streets all right you see Chinese Brands coming in fashion brands sports brands
and and if you go to China uh now they are Chinese uh Cosmetics they they are
just the advertisment just as slick any french and and and Japanese uh you know
Sephora reported uh the closing stores in in China so so I think the Chinese uh
Brands will all come out so if you ask me how do I look at the
world uh how but you know in Singapore we we we are so small we can't influence
world events we can't influence the world powers we can have dialogues and uh we can be a platform and uh but they
too will want to have their own platforms and uh dialogue channels um
so there's a Chinese saying uh in this case it's a bit like so
[Music] know so meaning meaning we can't we
can't work against the uh the current we just have to flow with the current uh
sounds a bit Thais but uh and we find we we we we find calm calmness and and and
peace in in this in this flow and and try to make a living out of it so that's
my comment thank you very
much thank you Mr Lee for wonderfully bringing us back to how asan engages
with China and how you know what the prospects and challenges are going
forwards um I'm now going to uh speak about uh I'm going to try and add to the
conversation and perhaps in then I unexpected way we have heard what
China's priorities are we have heard what the perspectives of China are we've heard what how asan looks at this let me
argue for the United States now uh recently I wrote something
called uh how America should stop its Obsession of being number one and for
that I got trolled tremendously by many
me now anti-American I am not and I want to
argue the case now from the perspective of the United States because part of
trying to think about the China shock is trying to think about us China rivalry and it takes two to
tangle there's no sound of one hand clapping we've got to try and understand
both sides to this engagement many of you will recall that
one way that many people think about us China rivalry is through a very simple
graph that graph is one of America's GDP and of China's GDP the size of
America's economy and the size of China's economy and all of us are now
familiar with the idea how China's economy is catching up converging
towards the United States and if you don't want to think about the economy you can think about it in terms of the
size of the military number of nuclear warheads you can think about it as measures of other kinds of Power
engagement to the rest of the world every single Dimension China is catching
up to the United States what's so wrong about that well
from America's perspective what's happening with this graph is the
possibility of a hostile hegemonic
power gaining ascendency in the US in the Asia Pacific
region in the Pacific Ocean region this now China the United States
Europe everyone in the world this part of the world is considered the
economic and soon to be potentially the political center of the world from sheer
numbers of people people from demography from the economic Vitality from the
political engagements that are happening here when that happens this will severely
constrain American freedom of actions and the range of strategies they are
able to undertake so observers look to some imagined theoretical Point there's
a threshold and say that's the danger point when China reaches 80% of us power
or 90% or whatever that's a simple story about the China
shock at the end of History China's rise has brought this upon
itself as Ambassador says No One Believes In the Chung Pan's uh
articulation of China's peaceful R the structure of it is that this will be a
challenge so as much as anyone else I like simple stories to understand the
world and that is a really simple story size of the whatever compared to one
another but even I find that story a little bit too simple as a way to think
about the China shock at the end of history as a way to think about us China rivalry so let me take the three and a
half minutes I have left here to go through three points those three points
are very simple I want to talk about a cycle in
world history the first point I want to make is the rising part of that cycle
which you can think about as engagement of the rest of the world of America with
China and then I want to talk about not Peak China I don't I'm not a pessimist
about China I think China's economy will continue to grow but the peak of that cycle that then takes us
towards disengagement what international relation Scholars call balancing what
the rest of us might think of as rivalry this is the ERA this downturn of
the cycle that's the era of the China shock that China shock has brought us to
where we are today and then my third Point what is the way forwards for us as
all of my uh colleagues on this panel have said they've all given you a vision of the way forwards I want to give you a
vision of that as well so going back back to the period of
Engagement why did World History go through this upward part of the
cycle between 1980 and 2010 the United States and
China dealt with each other in constructive
engagement whether they thought about it that way or not that's what they did so
they ended up in inadvertent constructive engagement
the great driving themes of that era were two there was
geopolitics and there was International economics geopolitics said that the world was
converging politically everyone would come to have
soon the same political system it's what my colleague Selena referred to as hego
and fukuyama's description of the end of history that there was only one coherent
political construct that all nations around the world whatever region geography Origins would eventually
converge to this gave America great hope
that as China grew simply through the act of its maturing China would become
like them there would no be no ideological confrontation there would be
no geopolitical differences everyone would have the same politics economics
was the mirror of that grand idea economics said that you should pursue
economic efficiency and comparative advantage China provided a cheap labor
force a willingness to industrialize that complemented what the rest of the
world America in particular wanted this gave rise to an interconnectedness an
inadvertent cohes iive coalescent Global poity and economy
international trade is win-win China's growth is win-win because of geopolitical
convergence but then something broke we reached that Peak and that Peak was not
at China 80% of the United States that Peak happened in
2010 2 years after the global financial crisis geopolitical attitudes shifted
away away from engagement towards rivalry the world moved away from
coalesence towards fragmentation some of that shift is
ideological China was showing no political convergence as it grew it
remained firmly Marxist leninist in fact according to my colleague Selena that is
what drives China today so the the mistaken idea that many in the west had
that there would be geopolitical convergence was frustrated and
disappointed and then as an economist for me the China
shock the China shock was that China's economy became so powerful in
manufacturing so powerful in exports that the rest of the world
Shook and in America what you saw
were Steel Workers auto manufacturing industry looking around and saying the
price at which China is selling us steel automobiles the rest of what China
exports computers textiles everything you can mention was low relative to
everything else that America was making everything else that America was
importing from Canada or Mexico that for an economist is the China shock and what
they gave rise to was a deep insecurity in America
when you price something lower than I can make it you are taking business away
from me you are stealing my jobs you are dismantling my industry and
through that you are turning into ghost towns what were once thriving
middleclass American communities not only did China not converge politically
to the great disappointment of Frank fukiyama Simo lipet Bill Clinton and a range of other thinkers China was
challenging America economically and this challenge is not
unique to America in every society that produces goods that compete with China
you are now all at risk the right thing to do in that situation for an economist is to come along and say don't worry
that means you're not very productive at making steel automobiles I will teach you to program computers
in about 15 years you will all be good computer programmers and you will once again be able to compete with China that
is a story that no one bought so the big China shock was this up and then down
the question is what do we do going forwards and this is where I end the
goal is obviously not to
take each great power is just trying to do the best that it
can China wants to grow and it should grow to lift its people out of poverty
America doesn't want its people to feel insecure and it shouldn't we need to be
able to come up with a way to triangulate that so the question for us in the rest of the world is not to take
sides because everybody is right the question is what's the smart thing for
us to do so let me end with three smart things we can do remember I said the
beginning of all this was inadvertent uh inadvertent cooperation
we should go back to that we should try and find domains of inadvertent cooperation let me give just
two okay inadvertent cooperation means you've got some goal in mind that's got
nothing to do with what's going on here but in pursuing that goal you end up cooperating because now now given the
tensions full-blown cooperation is impossible we can't go around telling the world oh please cooperate because
otherwise we're going to die we're in a boat headed for an iceberg we're all going to sink if you don't cooperate
that doesn't work you've got to look for ways in which countries can again inadvertently cooperate here are
two one is the global climate crisis every country in the world feels
threatened by China's production of electric batteries electric vehicles and they want to put up industrial policy
that will help their industry okay everybody in the world fears that when America practices
industrial policy there will be a retaliation other countries will practice industrial policy let me say
the thing that economists are not allowed to say what's so bad about that
if America has industrial policy that makes it produce better batteries better
electric vehicles move towards renewable energy and in doing that it makes Europe
and China feel very uncomfortable and they put on even more industrial policy
to improve their batteries and electric vehicles I say from the sidelines right
on this is how we're going to save the world through inadvertent
cooperation two other ideas I have about small Nations nudging the great powers
out of great lock when you see two great Powers banging away at each other what you want to do is not necessarily get
completely out of the way but to nudge them away from grit loock convince them
that they do not have to do this simply by making cooling reassuring noises and
let me end by saying multilateralism which is part of the idea that built the
world in that inadvertent Co lesson is no longer on offer given the state of geopolitics
but a kind of Pathfinder multilateralism will be available this
is hugely important for Singapore hugely important that Singapore which imports
and exports 300% of GDP again be able to engage on a Level Playing Field with
other nations in trade if we can't do it for all of the world simultaneously let's do it for subgroups let's do it
for Pathfinder multilateralism so those are my ideas thank you thank you very much for your
attention I'd now like to maybe engage with a few minutes uh with um if there
are burning points that each of my panelists wants to raise in confrontation with the others if not I'd
like to then invite the audience to to Poe their questions to us so I think there's unanimity here uh to get
questions from the audience say since as Mr Lee says many of you are so experts in this yes sir please come up to the
microphone say very quickly who you are and then ask your question just a quick one my name is
in I've been looking at all these things and thinking about it just a couple of
questions Rel relative to the rest of the world do you think the Chinese are overco
competitive and 46 years after T shopping to charge the failing Chinese
economy why haven't uh the Chinese produ leaders that can speak and engage with
the rest of the world in English I think that helps them project the soft power
much better than just speaking Chinese thank you very much for your question two very precise questions if I may let
me just address them here in this panel uh Mr Lee maybe you can take on the the first yes uh in thanks for the question
I think the second question first uh why can't they speak English actually uh in my experience with those born after' 70s
uh especially 70s and 80s I see some of them rising in the hierarchy are
speaking very good English in fact they study in the in the western universities so so so I have this hope
that when they really become you know at the top Echelon one day uh I I think
their world view will be very different so so that is coming Aang
uh your first question uh what was the first question Chinese over comp Chinese over
competitive well there are many we are all Chinese descent here I mean most of us so you know we know we value
education you have tiger man syndrome you know uh you have duration over the
weekends enement classes and you know you work 18 hours a day and you don't
find it wrong right I mean so so it is very deep rooted in in the Chinese culture uh to to Value education and and
that itself you know when you have a system to to organize the people in a in
a productive way you will produce lots of Engineers and uh int intelligencia
that will be needed to power the economy so so I you you you can't say that oh
please uh adopt the 8 to5 rule you know like Australia if you if you your bosses
are not supposed to message you huh after after what time and the weekend and so on you you you can't the CH it's
not in the Chinese culture so so so in that sense uh that the DNA is helpful
right so so I think um but of course uh now there's elephant in the room if
elephant goes in the swimming pool a lot of water will get Spilled Out you know from the pool because of the sh size so
I think this is something that they they have to find ways to uh to make uh the
world feel uh you know they they have a chance uh so so Chinese company investing in in
you know other continents and creating jobs uh and and sharing the benefits uh will be one productive way going forward
thank you Mr Le heni I want to go back to the question of uh Chinese speaking
English and how it may affect soft power I've been pondering that question
myself uh and I asked myself why why is it Indians in America do so well and in
Europe and Britain and so on of all the groups in the United States the East
Asian Americans don't do as well and China doesn't do as well why I think
um India has been under British colonialism for 250 years or more they
send their children to Britain to the boarding schools they set up boarding schools dun school and whatever St
Stevens in Chennai and so on like Eaton and the Indian Elite maharajas all want
to be British you know join clubs Etc so they know the culture and they're used
to talking to foreigners China has never been colonized really except in the uh
concessions on the coast and when you had the Mongols who came and the uh Manu
who came the Ching Dynasty became Chinese the Mongols stuck to themselves
hired other people to run the country for them so the Chinese are very in a
sense that culture has not been diluted they can't understand you know the West
in that way so you can learn English they go to the colleges you know but
they learn science mainly maths and there's no cultural content there I was
always asked in the United States uh Ambassador Chan why do the Chinese Point
their fingers at us wave their finger at us all the time when they speak the West
finds it very aggressive I say oh it's like the Italians you know they shake their hands and the Chinese just point
themselves it's not personal they point at each other too you know and even family members but there's a cultural
Clash there and I really think it's the fact that China has not been colonized
in that way and the colonization was very different I think that's why they've
not today because the world is Western had germanism for so long that you've
got to understand part of that culture thank you heni I mean the this can I just pick up on this as well the I mean
the here in Singapore uh people too had initially challenges with uh engaging
with the english- speaking world there were attempts to uh to Stamp Out Singlish that know dialects were not
considered appropriate and then there was a big push to get English and so now we've articulate English speakers um and
China could could well do that and indeed in the number of people that is sent China has sent to the United States
and to the UK Western Europe it's developing a whole new generation of people uh my friend kug Jin uh people
like Eric Lee and others who are just as articulate and persuasive in English as they are in Chinese or maybe I just pick
up your point about whether Chinese are overco competitive I think the right that's the right question is why is the
system that we have built so fragile that a group that's a little bit
more competitive then it ends up being viewed as disruptive for the rest of the system we should be thinking about how
we build system so that more competition as much competition as anyone can bring
out is good for the system and ideally we can think about ways like that I mean
this is what Adam Smith was about Adam Smith said 200 years ago it is not
because we think people are nice to each other that they're benevolent that we expect dinner on our table but instead
is from the butcher Baker and the Brewer they're looking attention paying attention to their self-interest that
guarantees the delivery in the economic Marketplace and we need to be Building Systems like that uh so may I um yeah
please and then after that
yourself thank you then uh zel here um I
must say that uh first of all I'd like to thank uh liwanu school for this festival
today is our former prime minister Liu's birthday
yes and 101 years old and uh I personally owe a lot to to him and
Singapore owes a lot to him and in particular in our understanding of China
I think uh in the opening of China and the trips at that time I was editor of brarian Malay newspaper but Mr liuan you
always making a point that when we goes to China is always a multi-racial kind of composition of Delegation including
editors who go along so I was privileged and honored to be part of that team uh
but I also like to emphasize to to Mr Lee that we are not all Chinese
here I'm one of those Singaporean but not all Chinese but I think I just the
point I want to make is that I just came back from CIA I was there for two weeks
and we went with my former classmates School classmates and they chose to visit Shin Chang because of the Muslim
background and I wanted to ask a question about how do you see China responding to the challenges which you
all discuss about in particular America but with the role of the in that context do they do you see
China turning to that part of the Muslim world to bring about a better
understanding better relationships with the rest of the world but having said that uh I would like also to ask another
question about Singapore's role what what I heard just now really fantastic fabulous ideas uh Singapore China was
wondering why Singapore 70% Chinese should be more Chinese rather than closer to America but we see our
Singapore as multiracial and closer to the realities of the challenges of the
world how do you see Singapore's role in that context can Singapore play a role
in making in China understand the world better and the final point about
learning Chinese learning English I also had the same sentiment when I was there I had difficulties communicating but
then I asked myself why not I learn Mandarin of course China must learn
English too and learn the other cultures of the world but I think we the known Chinese also can learn and understand
China better thank you thank you Z thank you yeah let's let's take let's take
some other questions please do you want to um do there a
microphone can we bring one here very just very quickly so everybody else can hear I I hear you fine so but everybody
else wants to hear you as well no I just want to offer a comment
here because the AI technology progress has been so rapid today is beginning to
happen you can speak in any language yes simultaneously we translated to multiple
languages so people who want to translate into Malay sit one side and
African another side and if you respond same thing you can respond in any
language it be translated into whatever language the speaker thank you so the
day is coming so that's the good news thank you very much thank you uh sir please
question okay all right going to get my name is pun oza and thank you so much for this
uh event I really enjoyed the conversations um I'm a student as well as a teacher of geopolitics and shipping
because that's my profession so obviously this is very interesting I just wanted to view um from all of you
on a particular point of view which has been promulgated at least in some of the Chinese friends and other friends I have
who say that the challenge with China what is happening today is more because of the confusion which is because there
are two systems in one country there is a centralized uh decision-making uh
planned economy system at the same time there's a lot of private initiative which is driving the growth and
potential growth when both of these Collide at one point of time the
confusion is basically creating u a biggest challenge for China going forward is that view uh correct from all
of you thank you very much uh lein can I just get your question in before I turn to the panel
uh thanks Danny this is leing a quick question um especially after you mentioned the Chinese company are all
going out or you're going to die and they are coming out to asan for two
reasons one is to better access the market not just the asan market but also
the European and the US market which turns out to be more restrictive and another is to some extent bypass the
export control that the US is implementing on China so will that translate into more pressure on
countries like Singapore from us that to stop helping China to get access to the
export export control restricted technology for instance there okay uh
the computer chips and that thank you very much Le uh Mr Lee may I begin with you again we've got a lot of questions
so just uh just pick and choose however you like uh Ling's question right will
Singapore stop helping China I think our well I think the companies are making
adjustments based on the existing uh Arrangements uh under WTO uh you know
under bilateral and multilateral uh free trade agreements so they will figure out a way you know if the direct export is
ter is too high they'll go to a different country and then you know and benefiting The Shipping Lines and so on
huh and and and find the path of minimum least resistance they will go so if this
uh tariffs structure change again then I think companies will have to adjust again so it's not so much whether
Singapore will or will not help uh these companies we we just we just make oursel as business friendly as possible uh to
receive any businesses that can that can make use of Singapore you know to to to prosper I think coming to the questions
on uh you know the balance between the role of central government and
Enterprise uh indeed it's true it's a common observation that in the last 10 12 years uh there is this phenomenon
called meaning soe advance but Poe
Retreat okay so so yeah S soe Advance
and po uh Retreat so meaning that the private sector role is getting
smaller uh at least the sentiment is felt that way right that that that a lot
of uh important major uh needle moving projects are to be done
by uh s soes but have you said that there's qualification because a lot of the EV uh you know manufacturers today
they are Poes right but but the the Chinese government has has wanted to
always play a bigger role in telling you what to do so that is quite contrary to
what we are used to in the western world and in Singapore we we believe that the government should do only this and then
let the market uh Thrive right and and you know exercise their judgment and
initiatives so so I think uh indeed that is a sentiment today uh and that
sentiment doesn't um Inspire confidence uh for continual
Investments heni may I invite you to speak to uh I think I'll take zel's
question because you've picked up the others and is the question of how China
will deal with the Middle East and because it wants to reach out and
establish some influence and cooperation there certainly is one way of breaking
out of what they see as the West United States leading its NATO allies to try to
circumscribe China uh and it's got this sang problem
and how they would deal with the Muslims in fact I have asked before a Chinese
official why did China not seek advice from I didn't say Singapore Malaysia or
Indonesia which are Muslim majority countries how they deal with radical
Islam you know and I I said it's still possible it may not be too late I didn't
get an answer because I think it was above his pay grade you know but uh but
I think China will have to resolve that so far as you know oh I has been quite
silent Saudi Arabia the Middle East countries Indonesia Malaysia they've not
made an issue of what is happening in sang mainly because it is
separatist I was this was explained to me because the it is a separatist
faction and most of these countries are against separatism themselves but I
think China for its own uh self-esteem and for its ability
to reach out further to the rest of the world will have to resolve the sang
question I don't think it's genocide I think it's human rights abuses grave
human rights abuses so it's a question of how China seeks to deal with that
issue you know because otherwise it will always be something that stands in the way of
full cooperation thank you he Selena yeah um let me Let Me Maybe answer I'll leave
the business Eon question to both of you on my right left left and right um I'll answer Z's question which is uh to to in
addition to what uh Ambassador China has said which is I think I think there is this Rich uh this public relations
Outreach a public Outreach that China is doing to Muslim countries in terms of uh
the situation in sang so they have um you know invited uh religious leaders
and Muslims groups in Indonesia in Malaysia as well to visit uh uh sang and
to show you know that all these things are not happening but I think one thing we have to if we step back a little bit
more there is something else involved here um this improving our relations with the Muslim world I think that's something we want to do but we know that
China's relations with Indonesia and Malaysia is actually quite good especially in economic realm and that
has a lot to do with that as well so that is this this this foreign policy part that is uh slightly separate from
the religious issue and I think China's involvement in the Middle East is not just about religion there is that great
power management which I was talking about that great Powers manage the world
what does it mean to manage the world meaning that you insert yourself into places where there are conflict and
where there's violence and then you play a mediating role and and I think it in
it its rise to Global prominence and is part of his Global Ambitions has insed
itself in the Middle East in the way that United States have and in in places that the United States have not been
able to broker a deal like between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier on and and all that so it has inserted itself in in
great power management taking on the role of great power failing spaces that the US cannot feel I think that's an
important thing to remember about this Outreach to the Muslim world and to the Middle East
singapor because we're out of time Singapore's role um in making China understand the world better I think that
we have played a role in this for a very long time in terms of translation in terms of trying to breach being the
meeting points for but I think the that role in this current climate is still there but it
may not be as it was in the past in in the past China was willing to learn it
was a student it was the student uh during teling time it is now the teacher
I think it considers itself to be a teacher I think we need to remember that and we we we be careful about we should
be careful about how we approach this issue and the kind of role that we play Yi you wanted to jump I just wanted to
add I didn't answer that point I agree with uh Selena that China has in fact
developed it's grown it's got at the time when they were reaching out and the West was talking to China they had a lot
of dialogue set up hundreds of dialogues they didn't need Singapore but I think this moment when China is having so so
much difficulties with the west and trying to get the West to understand and appreciate what it is trying to do that
is a role for Singapore I know it because the Chinese groups think tanks
have come to Singapore and said can you help to create some dialogue between the
United States and uh China because uh
Singapore is in fact trusted by the US and you have China channels in China so
I do not dismiss our role now but we should be at least modest and humble
about how much effect we can have it's always good to try to help establish
dialogue because the two sides can talk to each other and now and again you know
though Singapore is seem to be proest I think even by China they understand that
Singapore leaders do now and again and important forums speak out for China to
urge that the West you know sort of uh also speak to China I remember prime
minister Lee sien when he was prime minister said at the Nik Forum he said
you know I understand that there are groupings that are going to be formed of like-minded people to deal with future
challenges referring to all these minilateral the United States was forming in the he said but do you in fact build confidence building measures with your potential adversary you know is that kind of statement that I think China will find helpful thank you heni I if I may I just say a couple of words on Lin's question but maybe in a slightly different direction I think one of the
things that is a great Pitfall for the rest of us is to think that in this us
China conf confrontation we can just jump in yeah and do business we can be
you know the China plus one so that when America gets really tired of China it turns to us as the plus one um I want to just take the view that if you think that America's problem with China is nothing personal the pro challenges that it faces with the China shock China's exports is not unique to China it is just something that is going to react to every time it sees a comp competitive economy that's exporting to America in a way that challenges America's Supremacy we saw that with Japan Japan in the 1990s and 2000s was Enemy Number One for the United States Economic Policy trade policy and Japan at that time was no China
Japan Jaan was firmly an allly of the US Pacific Alliance Japan's entire military
was underg guarded by the US Department of Defense nonetheless America felt that Japan's exporting progress in refrigerators in automobiles in consumer
electronics presented a threat to the American economy so if any of us think
that well you know China and us are in trouble I can be a Vietnam I can be a Mexico I can be somebody else that comes
in and takes over from what China exported to the US I can be the plus one
well My worry is that economics tells us what not going to be we need to play
another strategy one that's more constructive that helps bring America and China together again um I would love
to have more questions because it's been so much fun I hope it's been fun for everyone but we've reached the end of our time I I only remains for me to
invite you to join me in thanking this wonderful panel
thank you panelist uh may we now invite them to the front for group photography please in the meantime we like to thank all of you for attending this Festival session and the next Lobby session will begin at 12:15 p.m. in the meantime please feel free to explore around the BTC campus and participate in some of our fren activities that we have for you this ranges from our research to Heritage exhibition to our Amazing Race where 20 lucky individuals will stand to win 20 $120 worth of prizes we hope you're hungry as well because we have food stations popping up at our student lounge which is right at the back so if you like to you can may visit there for some food and beverages as well thank you.