習近平對西方的戰爭內幕 | Melissa Chen | 思想之戰 2024
Inside Xi's war on the West | Melissa Chen | Battle of Ideas 2024
Academy of Ideas 2024年12月22日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLhgISFU4Ts
摘自思想之戰節 2024 辯論：10 月 7 日，一年後：世界（混亂）新秩序？詳情：https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/sess...
完整節目：https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/prog...
發言人：Melissa Chen
社交媒體 X：https://x.com/acadofideas Instagram：/ acadofideas
TikTok：https://www.tiktok.com/@acadofideas?i...
10月7日，一年後：世界（混亂）新秩序？
https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/session/october-7-one-year-on-new-world-disorder/
10 月 20 日星期日，11:00—12:30，教堂大廈哈維·古德溫套房地緣政治危機
2023 年 10 月 7 日，哈馬斯戰士對以色列的野蠻恐怖主義似乎再次顛覆了地緣政治。就在分析人士開始理解俄羅斯全麵入侵烏克蘭所開創的“新秩序”時，以色列的襲擊以及以色列隨後在加沙為摧毀哈馬斯而發動的戰爭似乎開啟了地緣政治曆史的新篇章。也許最值得注意的是，這場戰爭引起了許多前西方盟友對以色列的廣泛譴責。這取決於你問誰，這要麽向所有人展示了哈馬斯的伊斯蘭野蠻行徑，要麽以色列完全放棄了戰爭規則。不管怎樣，一種新的動態立刻出現了。
在過去的一年裏，戰爭的進行似乎一再加劇中東的緊張局勢。許多人說，隨著以色列和伊朗兩國互相攻擊，兩國正處於戰爭邊緣。以色列還麵臨著與真主黨的衝突，盡管許多人質疑以色列在摧毀加沙哈馬斯的嚐試中取得了多大成功。這場戰爭也給整個中東帶來了經濟問題。
這場戰爭也產生了全球性的影響：它似乎使以色列與許多西方盟友的關係變得緊張，因為許多國家都站出來譴責加沙所謂的“種族滅絕”。在整個西方，這場戰爭還伴隨著反猶太主義的激增。
但也許加沙戰爭更廣泛的後果是文化戰爭的全球化。在過去的一年裏，西方社會已經看到了一個相對規模較小但非常直言不諱的反以色列/親巴勒斯坦聯盟的出現。最引人注目的不是對加沙受苦受難者的同情，而是這種聯盟將以前分散的群體團結在一起的感覺——從鐵杆伊斯蘭主義者到 LGBTQ 活動家。有時，加沙戰爭似乎與加沙無關，而與先前存在的文化衝突有關，例如身份政治或西方曆史之爭。
籠罩在這些衝突之上的還有中國問題。許多美國軍事規劃者堅持認為與中國的重大衝突是不可避免的，而西方一些人則試圖描繪出一場以中國、俄羅斯和伊朗為首的對美國權力的新的“全球抵抗”。然而，除了偶爾涉足文化戰爭或謹慎支持普京之外，中國一直試圖將自己定位為置身事外。
2024 年的全球力量平衡將走向何方？烏克蘭和加沙的戰爭暴露了全球秩序的哪些方麵？在美國衰落和中國崛起的背景下，我們是否正在目睹世界的重新排序？也許這種動態更像是全球分裂成不同的區域中心——或者完全是別的什麽？我們正處於新冷戰的邊緣，還是文化戰爭正在全球化？
發言人
Nick Busvine OBE
顧問；Herminius Holdings Ltd 創始合夥人；Briefings for Britain 顧問委員會成員；前外交官，外交和聯邦事務部
Melissa Chen
Strategy Risks 董事總經理；Ideas Beyond Borders 聯合創始人；Spectator World 特約編輯
Bill Durodié 教授
巴斯大學政治、語言和國際研究係國際關係係主任
Ashley Rindsberg
調查記者；作者，《灰色女士眨眼：紐約時報的誤報、歪曲和捏造如何徹底改變曆史》
Ralph Schoellhammer 博士
評論員和播客；維也納韋伯斯特大學國際關係學助理教授
發言人：Melissa Chen
所以這裏隻是舉手表決，你們中有多少人認為你們會在未來 10 年內經曆一場全球衝突，這種形式你們可以稱之為第二次世界大戰，對不起，你們中有多少人認為在未來 10 年內會經曆一場全球衝突或第三次世界大戰，好吧，那你們這一生呢？有人跑了兩次，嗯，有多少人已經認為它正在順利進行中，或者我們離它很近了，有趣的是，一切都一樣，因此，早在 10 月 7 日之前，世界秩序的重塑就已經在順利進行中了，我不知道你們是否注意到，但如果你是美國 NBA 的籃球教練，你就不能發推文支持香港，我不知道你們是否知道，你們國家的倫敦大學學院的教授會d 發現自己正在接受調查，並在討論中國現代奴隸製問題後被取消了教學課程，你有沒有注意到，如果你是一位著名的電影導演，像馬丁·斯科西這樣的人會說你不能拍一部關於西藏喇嘛的電影，而迪士尼的首席執行官必須前往中國，去格拉爾，向中國的牧師道歉，你有沒有注意到大衛·拉米無法在倫敦接待台灣前總理，因為他不想在訪問前激怒中國，那麽中國如何能夠將其鎮壓和脅迫的觸角延伸到其主權邊界之外，並影響所有這些人，我剛才列出的所有這些人，都是我們英國和美國國民，嗯，在海外，他們在自己的國家實際上可以說什麽和做什麽，這隻是一個文化層，這隻是一個軟件層，如果我們去再往下一層到硬件，嗯，你有沒有注意到，中國現在是世界上最大的造船國，其產能是美國的 230 多倍，就艦船數量而言，中國擁有最大的海軍，但噸位不是，你有沒有注意到，自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和 10 月 7 日以來，中國幾乎已經占領了整個非洲，中國支持普京，拒絕譴責哈馬斯，反而譴責以色列，這清楚地表明，以色列已經把自己的命運交給了一個特定的俱樂部，嗯，這是一個獨特的集團，它已經出現，包括中國、俄羅斯、伊朗和朝鮮，《經濟學人》稱之為混亂四方，《外交事務》雜誌稱之為動蕩的 AIS，但他們在顛覆什麽，嗯，他們在顛覆舊世界秩序，不管你想叫它什麽，這個國家集團已經建立了更緊密的聯係，他們互相提供武器，共享他們利用他們的封閉社會開展影響力活動，入侵我們的開放社會。經過數十年不受約束的全球化，美國遏製了地緣政治對手的崛起。他們認為，中國經濟的經濟自由化將帶來政治自由，這種想法是錯誤的。現在，隨著對進口產品征收關稅和貿易戰升級，美國和中國以前所未有的速度脫鉤。我們的錯誤是，假設市場是實現自由最大化的載體。相反，這是中國利用的一種機製，將其模式和文化輸出到我們的海岸。相反，中國利用市場準入按照自己的形象重塑世界。在我的工作中，我們看到企業通過各種方式降低來自中國的風險，從供應鏈投入到重新平衡投資組合，遠離對中國市場風險較高的公司。與此同時，對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的製裁未能產生任何影響。禁止該國國際金融體係 Swift 係統似乎隻是促使俄羅斯推出了數字貨幣和替代性交叉支付係統，我不知道你是否聽說過這個術語，它代表巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非，這是一群新興市場，幾十年前投資者正在慶祝，現在它是磚頭，你知道，它基本上已經擴展，就像 lgbts 一樣，將其擴展到 lgbtq 以及以同樣快的速度，這個集團的形成非常清楚地表明，這些國家實際上拒絕了西方的二戰後秩序，並希望建立自己的內部信任圈，因為世界重組為兩極世界，世界變得越來越不穩定，這場冷戰與 20 世紀活躍的舊冷戰的區別在於，這場冷戰不僅僅是國家之間的戰爭，也是國家內部的戰爭文化差異被武器化，以至於外交政策和地緣政治被看作是文化戰爭的視角，否則你怎麽解釋巴勒斯坦這些集團不僅僅是受地緣政治和經濟驅動，而且現在它們也越來越多地受到社會和道德力量的影響，所以上一次冷戰中明確的選擇在西方已經不複存在，它越來越多地被視為一場文化戰爭，就像上一次冷戰一樣，新的冷戰將席卷世界幾乎每一個角落，世界新文化戰爭將要求國家和國家內的部落站隊，它建立在以不同的係統和軍事聯盟為導向的地緣政治集團之上，曆史遠未結束，即將再次重啟，太好了。
Inside Xi's war on the West | Melissa Chen | Battle of Ideas 2024
Academy of Ideas 2024年12月22日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLhgISFU4Ts
From the Battle of Ideas Festival 2024 DEBATE: October 7, one year on: new world (dis)order? Details: https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/sess...
Full programme: https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/prog... Speaker: Melissa Chen SOCIAL MEDIA X: https://x.com/acadofideas Instagram: 
/ acadofideas
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@acadofideas?i...
OCTOBER 7, ONE YEAR ON: NEW WORLD (DIS)ORDER?
https://www.battleofideas.org.uk/session/october-7-one-year-on-new-world-disorder/
SUNDAY 20 OCTOBER, 11:00—12:30, HARVEY GOODWIN SUITE, CHURCH HOUSEGEOPOLITICS IN CRISIS
The barbaric terrorism of Hamas fighters against Israel on 7 October 2023 seemed to once again upend geopolitics. Just as analysts were getting their heads around the ‘new order’ inaugurated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the attack in Israel, and Israel’s ensuing war in Gaza to destroy Hamas, seemed to open a new chapter in geopolitical history. Perhaps most notably, the war has seen widespread condemnation of Israel by many erstwhile Western allies. Depending on who you asked, this either displayed Hamas’s Islamist savagery for all to see, or Israel’s utter abandonment of the rules of war. Either way, immediately a new dynamic emerged.
In the past year, the prosecution of the war has seemed to repeatedly escalate tensions in the Middle East. Many talk of Israel and Iran as being on the verge of war as the two countries trade attacks. Israel also faces a conflict with Hezbollah, even as many question how well it has succeeded in its attempt to destroy Hamas in Gaza. It has thrown up economic issues across the Middle East, too.
The war has also had global consequences: it seems to have strained Israel’s relationships with many Western allies as so many line up to denounce a so-called ‘genocide’ in Gaza. Across the West, the war has also been accompanied by a surge in anti-Semitism.
But perhaps the broader consequence of the war in Gaza has been the globalisation of the culture war. Over the past year, Western societies have seen the emergence of a relatively small but very vocal anti-Israel / pro-Palestine coalition. What is most notable about this is less the sympathy for those suffering in Gaza, but the sense that this coalition unites previously disparate groups – from hardcore Islamists to LGBTQ activists. At times, it seems that the war in Gaza is less about Gaza and more about pre-existing cultural conflicts like identity politics or the battle over Western history.
Looming over these conflicts is also the question of China. Many American military planners insist that a major conflict with China is inevitable while some in the West try to paint a new ‘global resistance’ to American power, spearheaded by China, Russia and Iran. Yet, aside from the odd foray into the culture war or guarded support for Putin, China has tried to position itself as above the fray.
Where does this leave the global balance of power in 2024? What have wars in Ukraine and in Gaza exposed about the global order? Are we witnessing a re-ordering of the world amid American decline and Chinese ascendence? Perhaps the dynamic is more one of a fracturing of the globe into different regional centre – or something else entirely? Are we on the verge of a new cold war, or is the culture war becoming globalised?
SPEAKERS
Nick Busvine OBE
consultant; founding partner, Herminius Holdings Ltd; advisory board member, Briefings for Britain; former diplomat, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Melissa Chen
managing director, Strategy Risks; co-founder, Ideas Beyond Borders; contributing editor, Spectator World
Professor Bill Durodié
chair of International Relations, department of politics, languages and international studies, University of Bath
Ashley Rindsberg
investigative journalist; author, The Gray Lady Winked: How the New York Times' misreporting, distortions and fabrications radically alter history
Dr Ralph Schoellhammer
commentator and podcaster; assistant professor of International Relations, Webster University Vienna
Speaker: Melissa Chen
so just just a show of hands here how how many of you actually think that you will experience a global conflict in
this in the form you can call it World
War II if you like um in the next 10
years sorry how many of you think um
will experience a global conflict or
World War III in the next 10
years okay how about um in your lifetime
and someone raced it twice um and uh how
many already think it's well underway or
we're close to it interestingly all the
same hence um so long before October 7th
um the remaking of the world order was
already well well underway um I don't
know if you noticed but if you were a
basketball coach in the NBA in the
United States you couldn't tweet in
support of Hong Kong um I don't know if
you know not that a professor at UCL
here in your country would find herself
under investigation and cancel uh from
teaching a course after running a
discussion about modern slavery in
China did you notice that if you were a
famous movie director someone like
Martin scorsi say that you couldn't make
a film about the D Lama in Tibet and
that the CEO of Disney would have to
which is an American company would have
to travel to China to Graal and
apologize guys to the prier of China did
you notice that David Lamy was unable to
host the former PM of Taiwan here in
London because he didn't want to anger
China before his trip so how is it that China can extend
its tendrils of repression and coercion
so far beyond its Sovereign borders and
affect what all of these people and all
of these people that I just listed were
our British and American Nationals
um here overseas uh what what they can actually
say and do in their very own country and
this is just a cultural layer this is
just a software layer if we go down one
more layer to the hardware um did you
notice that China is now the world's
largest ship Builder with a capacity
that's two more than 230 times greater
than the United States that it has the
biggest Navy in terms of the number of
vessels but not tonnage did you notice that China's
pretty much all Africa right
now since the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and October 7th China's support
of Putin and refusal to condemn Hamas
but rebuke Israel instead makes it clear
that has thrown its lot in with a
certain Club um it's a distinct block
that has emerged and that is comprising
China Russia Iran and North
Korea The Economist calls it the quartet
of chaos the Foreign Affairs magazine
calls it the AIS of upheaval but what
are they upheaving um they're upheaving
the old world order whatever you want to call it this
group of Nations has forged closer ties
they Supply weapons to each other and
shared knowhow um and they run influence
campaigns using their closed societies
to hack our open societies after Decades of unfettered
globalization where the US eded the rise
of a geopolitical adversary thinking
erroneous that economic liberalization
of the Chinese economy would lead to
political freedoms we now see the US and
China decoupling at a unprecedented rate
as tariffs are imposed on Imports and
the trade War escalates our mistake was
assuming that markets were a vector for
maximizing Liberty instead it was a
mechanism China exploited to export
their model and culture to our Shores
instead China used Market access to
reshape the world in its own image in my
line of work we are seeing firms de risk
from China reducing their exposure in
various ways from supply chain inputs to
rebalancing their investment portfolios
away from companies that have high
exposure to the Chinese market meanwhile
sanctions on Russia over invasion of
Ukraine have failed to make a dent
Banning the country from the
International Financial system the Swift
system seems only to have spurred Russia
to launch a goal back digital currency
and an alternative crossb payment
system bricks I'm I don't know if you've
heard of this term um it stands for
Brazil Russia India China and South
Africa um and this is a the group of
Emerging Markets which investors a
decade decades ago were was celebrating
um now it's bricks Eau you know with
it's B it's basically expanded like
lgbts expand it to lgbtq plus as fast as
that um and and the formation of this
block makes it very clear that these
nations actually reject the Western Le
post World War II order and want to
build their own Inner Circle of trust as
the world reorganizes into a bipolar
world the world is becoming more and
more unstable the difference between
this cold war and the old one which
animated the 20th century is that this
one is not just between countries it is
within countries our cultural
differences are weaponized such that
foreign policy and geopolitics are
viewed through the lens of uh culture
wars here at home how else do you
explain qu or Palestine these blocks are
not just driven by geopolitics and
economics but now they're being shaped
increasingly by social and moral forces
as well so the clarity of choice in the
previous cold war is is gone here in the
west it is increasingly being cast as a
culture war and just like the last Cold
War the new one will engulf almost every
corner of the world World new culture
war will demand that Nations and tribes
within nations take sides and it rides
on top of geopolitical blocks oriented
around different systems and military
alliances history far from ending is
about to restart once again well great.
