西方掙紮 中國日益增長的全球影響力

中國日益增長的全球影響力：利害攸關？

https://www.usglc.org/chinas-growing-influence-is-america-getting-left-behind/

2021 年 4 月

近年來，中華人民共和國的全球投資急劇增長，超過美國成為拉丁美洲和非洲許多國家的最大貿易夥伴，並挑戰美國在全球的戰略影響力。從對基礎設施、航空航天和電力等關鍵行業的官方投資，到中國國有企業對 5G 等新技術的投資，中國已承諾到 2025 年通過全球製造業成為世界經濟領袖。根據其“中國標準 2035”計劃，中國旨在為從電信到人工智能的下一代技術製定全球標準，此舉可能對全球科技行業產生巨大影響。

COVID-19 危機凸顯了中國為提高其全球影響力所做的努力，從疫情爆發時的雙邊人道主義響應到疫苗外交。中國向 150 多個國家派出了醫療隊並捐贈了醫療設備，並在美國之前加入了 COVAX，這是一項確保公平分配疫苗的全球倡議。據估計，中國經濟已經從疫情引發的低迷中恢複過來，2020 年第三季度增長了 4.9%，使其成為 2020 年可能出現整體正增長的少數幾個經濟體之一。

中國在外交和發展方麵的投資不斷增加

中國國家主席習近平在中共十九大上發表了他對中國全球領導力的願景，他說：“中國特色大國外交旨在推動新型國際關係，構建人類命運共同體。”2019 年，中國在外交網絡規模上超過了美國，擁有 276 個外交機構，包括大使館、領事館和常駐國際組織代表團。 2018 年，中國將對外援助預算增加了 7%。

一帶一路。中國預計將在其“一帶一路”計劃上投入超過 1 萬億美元，相當於馬歇爾計劃實際規模的七倍。該倡議旨在為中國商品建立新市場，並加強中國與全球 130 個國家的經濟聯係，覆蓋了世界 60% 以上的人口和全球 GDP 的三分之一，其中包括 54 個非洲國家中的 40 個。

2020 年上半年，由於疫情限製，中國對“一帶一路”計劃的投資下降了約 50%。許多國家宣布推遲、取消或審查中國資助的項目，包括埃及、孟加拉國、巴基斯坦和坦桑尼亞，原因是疫情相關的內部經濟問題，以及尼日利亞或緬甸，它們自身的疫情經濟挑戰可能會限製它們以後償還“一帶一路”相關債務的能力。

中國發展機構。 2018 年，中國成立了部級發展機構——中國國際發展合作署，通過對外援助更好地協調和推進其在世界各地的商業和外交政策利益。中國還於 2014 年成立了亞洲基礎設施投資銀行，該銀行目前已有 103 個成員國，其中包括許多美國的戰略盟友。
中國不參加國際協調機構，以確保有效援助，如經合組織發展援助??委員會。當今許多最緊迫的人道主義危機幾乎沒有得到中國政府的財政支持，中國政府往往專注於每年應對一兩場災難。

發展融資。許多人警告說，中國的發展融資方式通過讓借款國背負巨額債務並將其用作杠杆，造成了戰略依賴，這種策略被稱為債務陷阱外交，然而，中國的貸款方式隨著時間和經驗的積累而不斷發展。受援國正在擴大談判能力和采購能力，中國銀行願意調整現有貸款條款，多邊機構和大國正在談判中發揮作用。

盡管中國領導人習近平表示，中國的投資旨在“順應經濟全球化的曆史潮流”，但許多國家——包括吉布提、厄瓜多爾、吉爾吉斯斯坦、蒙古和黑山——因欠中國巨額債務而麵臨巨大風險。這些擔憂導致巴基斯坦、馬來西亞、緬甸、孟加拉國和坦桑尼亞等國縮減了對該倡議的承諾。

氣候變化。中國是《巴黎氣候協定》的簽署國，也是世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國（幾乎相當於美國、歐洲和印度的總和）。習近平主席表示，中國將“力爭實現碳中和”。

“二氧化碳排放2030年前達到峰值，2060年前實現碳中和”，而據中國生態環境部的數據，中國將在2015年至2020年間降低“碳強度”18.8%。與此同時，在過去三年裏，中國還批準國內新增250千兆瓦火電裝機容量，並為全球四分之一的其他國家新建火電項目提供資金支持。

中國在世界範圍內日益增長的經濟影響力

2021 年 3 月，中國共產黨批準了中國的“十四五”規劃，這是一項經濟路線圖，目標是通過擴大國家在經濟中的作用、雙循環和安全的供應鏈，到 2035 年將該國的人均產出水平提高到“中等發達國家”的水平——幾乎是 2020 年水平的三倍——例如西班牙或韓國。

貿易協定：中國簽署了兩項新的貿易協定，一項是與 15 個亞太國家簽署的，另一項是與歐盟簽署的，這表明中國致力於製定全球貿易標準，並進一步鞏固了北京作為世界主導經濟強國的形象。

區域全麵經濟夥伴關係是一個由 15 個國家組成的亞太地區貿易集團，首次將中國、日本和韓國聯合起來達成貿易協議，並包括 10 個東南亞國家以及澳大利亞和新西蘭——總人口為 22 億，幾乎占世界人口的 1/3。

全麵投資協議將中國和歐盟的市場開放程度限製在目前的水平，以防止潛在的倒退，並有可能增強歐盟在中國的市場準入，涉及醫療服務、化學品、電動汽車和電信等領域。
技術：“中國標準 2035”為中國政府和領先的科技公司開辟了一條道路，以增加中國標準的數量，這些標準將成為 5G 互聯網、製造業的“物聯網”應用和人工智能等新興技術的國際標準。中國的目標是在全球範圍內推進其數字基礎設施和國內規則，這引發了人們對其部署和利用技術方式的擔憂。

華為是全球最大的電信設備製造商，年收入達 1085 億美元，目前已被 13 個國家禁用，19 個國家正在考慮禁用華為或選擇競爭對手，原因是華為受到中國政府的過度支持、與中國人民解放軍的聯係以及網絡安全問題。

習近平主席宣布，到 2035 年，國有企業的汽車電池等新能源技術將使中國一半的汽車實現電動或燃料電池驅動，一半實現混合動力。

拉丁美洲：自 2005 年以來，中國已在該地區投資 1500 億美元，超過世界銀行、美洲開發銀行和拉丁美洲開發銀行貸款總額，其中 90% 流向了委內瑞拉、巴西、厄瓜多爾和阿根廷四個國家。

中國利用其影響力孤立美國的戰略盟友台灣，迫使巴拿馬、多米尼加共和國和薩爾瓦多切斷與台灣的關係。

非洲：過去 15 年，中國對非洲的投資增長了 520% 以上，2009 年超過美國成為非洲最大的貿易夥伴，並成為撒哈拉以南非洲 48 個國家中 19 個國家的最大出口國。據麥肯錫稱，目前在非洲有 10,000 多家中國企業，到 2025 年有望創造 4400 億美元的收入。

中國進出口銀行在 21 世紀向非洲提供了近 670 億美元的貸款，占世界銀行 125 億美元貸款總額的 500% 以上，並計劃到 2025 年向非洲大陸提供超過 1 萬億美元的貸款。

亞洲：2000 年至 2017 年，中國在東亞和太平洋地區的外交和發展上投入了超過 480 億美元，獎勵那些支持其外交政策立場並購買其產品的國家。

中國超過 95% 的投資（總計 1200 億美元）都集中在該地區的基礎設施建設上。
他們說：中國日益增長的全球影響力

美國國會

參議院外交關係委員會主席 Bob Mendez (D-NJ)：“此刻需要做出強有力的戰略回應，以重建美國的領導地位，並投資於我們在未來一代人中超越中國的能力。”

參議院外交關係委員會高級成員 James Risch (R-ID)：“隨著我們進入 21 世紀，中國將在各個方麵成為我們的主要競爭對手。顯然在經濟、軍事、文化和其他所有方麵。”
眾議院外交事務委員會主席 Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY)：“中國利用來自香港、台灣、日本、韓國和新加坡的大量高質量工業投資成為世界製造業中心。這些是不可逆轉的結構性變化；相反，它們可能會加速。盡管美國需要製定切實可行的政策來防止金融操縱並在其發展過程中維護美國的權利，我們對這兩個大國的回應必須從根本上建立在承認其成就的意願和與之相匹配的決心上。”

眾議院外交事務委員會資深成員邁克·麥考爾（R-TX）：“隨著中國‘一帶一路’倡議的出現及其強製性貸款做法，我們必須讓我們的企業更容易進入國外市場……我們的外交人員在這些國家實地工作，對他們的政治和經濟複雜性有著獨到的見解。我們必須更多地利用這些信息幫助私營部門在國外開展業務，並支持美國維護全球穩定的外交政策。”

拜登政府

總統約瑟夫·拜登：“美國領導層必須應對這一新的威權主義推進時刻，包括中國與美國競爭的野心日益增長。我們將直麵中國的經濟濫用行為；反擊其咄咄逼人的脅迫行動；反擊中國對人權、知識產權和全球治理的攻擊。”

美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯：“我們撤退的地方，中國就會填補，然後他們就會製定這些機構的規則和規範；當中國挑戰我們的價值觀時，我們會挺身而出，包括在新疆對維吾爾族的挑戰或香港的民主；確保我們的軍隊能夠阻止中國的侵略；投資於我們自己的人民，使他們能夠充分參與競爭。”

財政部長珍妮特·耶倫：“拜登政府將采取全政府的方式對付中國，利用我們現有的工具，以實現我們的經濟、國家安全和外交政策目標。展望未來，我們應該努力應對這一重要挑戰，建立美國盟友和夥伴的統一戰線，包括通過多邊機構，以對抗中國的侵權行為。”

國家安全領導人

美國印度太平洋司令部司令、海軍上將菲利普·戴維森：“我們必須迅速在外交和信息領域以及經濟領域采取行動，因為中國正在通過腐敗、通過您之前提到的機製，非常有害地散布美元，我們必須願意在這些其他領域開展工作。”

其他資源

美國大聯盟與參議員米特·羅姆尼 (R-UT) 舉行了一場虛擬活動，討論了美國外交和發展計劃對於應對與中國共產黨等威權政府的競爭的重要性：據羅姆尼參議員說，“我們長期戰勝中國的方式是讓世界人民了解那裏正在發生的事情，並鼓勵他們呼籲自由和民主——這就是為什麽美國在世界舞台上的作用至關重要。我們需要製定一項戰略，利用我們的影響力工具（包括外交和發展）來加強我們的聯盟和夥伴關係，並勸阻中國不要走上成為國際社會負責任成員的道路。”

USGLC 的報告分析了來自不同政治派別的 120 多個智庫的分析報告，發現大家普遍同意打擊日益興起的威權主義的重要性，但也反映了應對挑戰的不同方法。請在此處閱讀完整分析，該分析發現來自不同政治派別的報告在多個領域達成了廣泛共識，包括加強打擊選舉幹預和虛假信息的工具、與盟友就中國和俄羅斯進行協調、加強數字技術標準以及提高人權。

China's Growing Global Influence: What's at Stake?

https://www.usglc.org/chinas-growing-influence-is-america-getting-left-behind/

April 2021

The People’s Republic of China’s global investments have grown dramatically in recent years, surpassing the United States as the largest trading partner with many countries in Latin America and Africa and challenging America’s strategic influence across the globe. From official investments in key industries like infrastructure, aerospace, and power to investments by Chinese state-owned companies in new technologies like 5G, China has pledged to become a world economic leader by 2025 through global manufacturing.  Under its “China Standards 2035” plan, China aims to set the global standards for the next generation of technologies, from telecommunications to artificial intelligence, a move that may have enormous implications for tech industries worldwide.

The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted China’s efforts to increase its global influence, from bilateral humanitarian response at the outbreak to vaccine diplomacy. China sent medical teams and donating medical equipment to over 150 countries and joined COVAX, the global initiative to ensure an equitable distribution of a vaccine, before the United States. Estimates indicate that China’s economy has already recovered from the downturn driven by the pandemic, growing by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020, marking it as one of the few economies likely to show an overall positive rate of growth for 2020.

GROWING CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN DIPLOMACY AND DEVELOPMENT

Chinese President Xi Jinping released his vision for China’s global leadership at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, saying, “major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics aims to foster a new type of international relations and build a community with a shared future for mankind.” In 2019, China surpassed the United States in the size of its diplomatic network, citing 276 diplomatic posts—including embassies, consulates, and permanent missions to international organizations. In 2018, China increased its budget for foreign aid by 7%.

• Belt and Road. China is expected to spend over $1 trillion on its “Belt and Road Initiative” – seven times the size of the Marshall Plan in real dollars. This initiative seeks to build new markets for Chinese goods and increase China’s economic connectivity in 130 countries around the world, encompassing more than 60% of the world’s population and one-third of global GDP – including 40 out of 54 African countries.
  • In the first half of 2020, China’s investments in the Belt and Road Initiative dropped by about 50% due to pandemic restrictions. Many countries announced they were postponing, cancelling, or reviewing Chinese-funded projects, including Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania due to pandemic related internal economic concerns, as well as Nigeria or Myanmar whose own pandemic economic challenges may constrain their ability to service Belt and Road related debt later.
• Chinese Development Institutions. In 2018, China launched a ministry-level development agency – the China International Development Cooperation Agency – to better coordinate and advance its commercial and foreign policy interests around the world through foreign aid. China also launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2014 which already has 103 member states, including many of America’s strategic allies.
  • China does not participate in international coordinating agencies to ensure effective assistance like the OECD Development Assistance Committee. Many of today’s most pressing humanitarian crises receive little financial contribution from the Chinese government which has tended to focus on responding to one or two disasters annually.
• Development Financing. Many have warned that China’s approach to development financing creates strategic dependencies by burdening a borrowing nation with enormous debt and using it as leverage, a tactic known known as debt-trap diplomacy, however, China’s approach to lending has evolved with time and experience. Recipient countries are expanding their negotiating power and procurement capacity, Chinese banks are willing to restructure the terms of existing loans, and multilateral institutions and great powers are playing a role in negotiations.
  • While Chinese leader Xi Jinping says Chinese investments are meant to “embrace the historic trend of economic globalization,” many have left countries – including Djibouti, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Montenegro – at significant risk with large debts owed to China. These concerns have led countries such as Pakistan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Tanzania to scale back their commitments to the initiative.
• Climate Change. China, a signatory of the Paris Climate Agreement, is also the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (almost equal to the United States, Europe and India combined).  President Xi Jinping said China will “aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,” and, according to the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China reduced its “carbon intensity” by 18.8% between 2015 and 2020.  At the same time, in the last three years, China has also allowed an extra 250 gigawatts of domestic coal-fired power plants and funds 1/4 of the world’s new coal-fired power plants in other countries.

CHINA’S GROWING ECONOMIC INFLUENCE AROUND THE WORLD

The Communist Party of China approved China’s 14th Five-Year Plan in March 2021, an economic roadmap with a goal of raising the country’s per capita output levels up to that of “moderately developed countries”—nearly three times the 2020 level—by 2035 such as Spain or South Korea, through an expansion of the state’s role in the economy, dual circulation, and secure supply chains.

• Trade Deals: China’s entry into two new trade deals, one with 15 Asia-Pacific countries and one with the European Union, signals its commitment to set global standards for trade and furthers Beijing’s image as the dominate economic power in the world.
  • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a 15-country trading block in the Asia-Pacific region, unites China, Japan and South Korea in a trade deal for the first time and includes 10 Southeast Asian countries plus Australia and New Zealand – a population of 2.2 billion people, almost 1/3 of the world’s population.
  • Comprehensive Agreement on Investment binds China and the European Union to their current levels of market openness for investments and prevents potential rollbacks, with the possibility enhanced EU market access in China, in sectors such as health services, chemicals, electric vehicles, and telecoms.
• Technology: “China Standards 2035” creates a path for China’s government and leading technology companies to increase the number of Chinese standards that become international standards for emerging technologies like 5G internet, the “Internet of Things” applications for manufacturing, and artificial intelligence. China aims to advance its digital infrastructure and domestic rules globally, which has raised concerns about the ways in which it deploys and exploits technology.
  • Huawei, the largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer in the world with an annual revenue of US$108.5 billion, has been banned in 13 countries, with 19 countries weighing a ban or chosen competitors due to undue Chinese state support, links to the People’s Liberation Army, and cybersecurity concerns..
  • President Xi announced that new energy technologies, such as car batteries from state-owned enterprises, will enable half of the vehicles in China to be electric or fuel-cell powered, and half hybrid by 2035.
• Latin America: China has invested $150 billion in the region since 2005, more than the combined lending from
  the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the CAF-Development Bank of Latin America, of which 90% has been directed to four countries: Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, and Argentina.

   

  • China has leveraged its influence to isolate Taiwan, America’s strategic ally, pressing Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador to cut ties with Taiwan.
• Africa: China has increased its investments in Africa by more than 520% over the last 15 years, surpassing the U.S. as the largest trading partner to Africa in 2009 and becoming the top exporter to 19 out of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. According to McKinsey, there are now over 10,000 Chinese firms in Africa with the potential to generate $440 billion in revenues by 2025.
  • China’s Export-Import bank loaned nearly $67 billion to Africa in the 2000s, more than 500% of the combined World Bank loans of $12.5 billion and aims to loan more than $1 trillion on the continent by 2025.
• Asia: China spent more than $48 billion on diplomacy and development across East Asia and the Pacific between 2000 and 2017, rewarding countries that support its foreign policy positions and buy its products.
  • More than 95% of China’s investments – totaling $120 billion – have focused on infrastructure development in the region.

WHAT THEY ARE SAYING: CHINA’S GROWING GLOBAL INFLUENCE

U.S. Congress

• Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, Bob Mendez (D-NJ): “This moment demands a strong, strategic response that can begin to rebuild American leadership and invest in our ability to out-compete China in the generation ahead.”
• Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Member, James Risch (R-ID): “As we proceed through the 21st century, China is going to be a major competitor of ours in every way that there is. Obviously economically and militarily, culturally and every other way.”
• House Committee on Foreign Affairs Chairman, Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY): “China has used floods of high-quality industrial investment from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea and Singapore to become a center of world manufacturing. These are structural changes that will not be reversed; rather, they are likely to accelerate. And while the US needs tough policies to prevent financial manipulation and enforce American rights as they proceed, our response to the two giants must rest fundamentally on a willingness to recognize their accomplishment and a determination to match it.”
• House Committee on Foreign Affairs Ranking Member, Mike McCaul (R-TX): “With the emergence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and their coercive lending practices, we must make it easier for our businesses to have access to foreign markets…Our diplomatic personnel on the ground in these countries and have unique insights on their political and economic complexities. We must do more to use this information to help the private-sector do business abroad and support U.S. foreign policy in upholding global stability.”

The Biden Administration

• President, Joseph Biden: “American leadership must meet this new moment of advancing authoritarianism, including the growing ambitions of China to rival the United States. We’ll confront China’s economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China’s attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”
• Secretary of State, Antony Blinken: “Where we pull back, China fills in and then they’re the ones writing the rules and setting the norms of these institutions; standing up for our values when China is challenging them, including in Xinjiang against the Uyghurs or democracy in Hong Kong; making sure that our military is postured so that it can deter Chinese aggression; and investing in our own people so that they can fully compete.”
• Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen: “The Biden administration will engage in a whole-of-government approach to China that uses our available tools in a manner that is designed to achieve our economic, national security, and foreign policy goals. Going forward, we should strive to meet this important challenge by building a united front of U.S. allies and partners, including through multilateral institutions, to confront China’s abusive behaviors.”

National Security Leaders

• Admiral Philip Davidson, Commander, United States Indo-Pacific Command: “We have to move out in the diplomatic and the information space, as well as the economic space, quite briskly because China is spreading dollars around very perniciously through corruption, through the mechanisms that you talked about earlier, and we’ve got to be willing to work in these other realms.”

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

• The USGLC held a virtual event with Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) on the importance of America’s diplomacy and development programs to addressing competition with authoritarian governments like the China Communist Party: According to Senator Romney, “The way we win long-term against China is to have people of the world understand what’s happening there and encourage them to clamor for freedom and democracy—which is why America’s role on the world stage is critical. We need to put a strategy in place that uses our tools of influence—including diplomacy and development—to strengthen our alliances and partnerships and dissuade China from the course they are on to become a responsible member of the international community.”
  • WATCH the discussion and learn more here.
• The USGLC’s Report on Reports analysis of more than 120 think tank analyses across the political spectrum found broad agreement on the importance of combating rising authoritarianism but reflected different approaches to the challenge. READ the full analysis here, which found several areas of widespread consensus in reports across the political spectrum including strengthening the tools to combat election interference and disinformation, coordinating with allies on China and Russia, bolstering digital technology standards, and elevating human rights.