Radhika Desai 莫迪挑釁中國是工作 買俄便宜油是生活

莫迪連任引發中印緊張?! 挑釁中國是工作?! 大買俄羅斯便宜石油是生活?! 伊於胡底?【國際360】

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tz_W0cwFu6Q&ab_channel=

2024年7月11日

 

總體而言，在莫迪的領導下，印度人民陷入貧困，不平等現象愈演愈烈，印度市場萎縮而非擴大，而所有這些才是印度落後的真正原因，並不是因為中國的存在，甚至不是因為印度與中國的貿易，所以我想我會分三部分來回答這個問題。

首先，我們現在基本上是轉向聯盟政治，也就是說，莫迪特別依賴兩個大盟友來接管272馬克，這將使他擁有多數政府，這意味著他必須軟化他的印度教民族主義政治，他必須接受很多東西，但我認為如此，因此有理由認為他將無法像以前那樣強硬，然而，這是否會轉化為外交政策是一個單獨的問題，原因有很多，所以讓我首先說，你必須了解莫迪的政黨印度人民黨在 1998 年至 2004 年聯合執政之前就一直掌權，因為即使在 20 世紀 90 年代，他們非常強烈地參與了基於印度教身份和反穆斯林政治的所有動員之後，他們仍然無法通過 r L 25% 的選票，他們不得不加入聯盟，因此，該黨一直支持兩件對印度支那關係不利的事情，第一，他們從曆史上很早的時候就將中國視為印度的主要敵人，他們一直將中國作為攻擊目標，可以追溯到 62 年戰爭，是的，你知道 62 年戰爭，如果你想一想，那是一個問題，它是基於印度犯下的許多錯誤，但因為他們一直反對尼魯早先的對華友好政策，你知道 Hindi Hindi Chini順便說一句，你知道印度人和中國人是兄弟等等，這項政策，印度人民黨，印度民族主義右翼，基本上充分利用了 1962 年的失敗，盡其所能，指責任何與中國友好的政策都是誤導性的，欺騙性的等等，通過保持這種非常高分貝的言論，他們基本上阻止了印度需要經曆的進程，以便與中國建立良好的關係，以便從與中國的良好關係中受益，無論是在安全和經濟方麵，我認為印度與印度支那的合作可以走很長的路，但整個進程都被阻止了，這個過程是什麽，印度在邊界爭端上的立場，這是印度不斷挑起的主要問題，印度的立場是基於當今許多印度學者所承認的殖民立場，即地圖上繪製的殖民路線有很多理由相信，印度的立場是無效的，而中國所持的立場是，讓我們坐下來談判，研究一下利益，什麽才是有效的，等等，同時在邊界爭端問題上，讓我們推進我們的利益，讓我們推進我們在其他問題上的合作，所以中國在與印度的關係方麵一直非常讓步，但如果不經曆這個過程，認識到印度的領土主張是無效的，它們更容易受到質疑，印度人不會提出任何立場，現在，無論誰掌權，印度都會對中國采取合作態度，話雖如此，鑒於印度的立場是不可行的，曆史本身，我的意思是現實本身對印度政府施加了某種重力。

因此，自 1980 年代以來，印度和中國基本上進行了大量密集的外交，即使在 1990 年代，這種外交仍在繼續。瓦傑帕伊政府，然後是 2004 年至 2014 年曼莫漢·辛格先生的 UPA 政府，這導致印度和中國之間關係的顯著改善，並且人們逐漸認識到應該就邊界爭端進行談判，在進行這些談判的同時，我們也應該深化我們的經濟關係，所以這一切進展順利，直到現在莫迪打斷了談判，我想稍後再談談莫迪，但在繼續談論莫迪和其他事情之前，我還要說最後一件事，他所做的是理解的關鍵，我的意思是，或者讓我重申一下，UPA 政府在與中國的良好關係方麵取得了重大進展，但本質上他們在印度支那關係方麵取得了進展，但他們並沒有同時改變印度內部的話語，他們沒有說，夥計們，看，現在是我們改變對邊界態度的時候了爭議，我們需要經曆一個學習的過程，我們需要承認我們的立場不是100%正確的，所以他們沒有把這個公開討論出來，這意味著印度教右翼繼續利用印度的反華情緒，他們被允許留下，這是聯合進步聯盟政府的錯，我認為印度任何穩固的、不可輕易逆轉的進步都依賴於印度的這一進程，這一意識形態進程，所以，這就是關於中國和進步的，在莫迪先生的領導下，我認為莫迪先生非常清楚，印度無法贏得與中國的任何軍事對抗，但盡管如此，小規模衝突還是被充分利用在反華言論中，然後鞏固了印度教和印度民族在莫迪先生身後的地位，所以他完全自由，他也不擅長追求經濟關係等等，所以我坦率地說，我個人認為莫迪的外交政策通常包括一大堆拍照機會，供他自己和其他世界領導人拍照，當莫迪穿衣時，你知道，正如你可能知道的，他對以某種方式穿衣很著迷，而且你知道非常昂貴，所以等等，所以這似乎就是他所關心的一切，他唯一關心的另一件事就是給他的企業親信在國外的合同，特別是你可能知道的，例如，阿達尼先生陪同莫迪先生出訪澳大利亞，帶回了一堆采礦合同，等等，這些都是這樣的東西，否則他真的沒有什麽外交政策，所以缺乏明確的外交政策，加上希望利用印度的反華和反巴基斯坦情緒，意味著莫迪先生對與中國建立良好關係並不十分有利，最後，第三部分是，莫迪先生和前任印度人民黨政府一樣，在意識形態上也更傾向於與美國建立良好關係和更緊密的關係，最好的例子就是，你知道，當瓦傑帕伊先生，前任印度人民黨總理，在 1998 年至 2004 年任職時，B 先生幾天之內上台後進行了第二次核試驗，如果你還記得那天晚上，你可能不記得了，但你可能知道他進行了第二次核試驗，他在核試驗後立即給克林頓總統寫了一封信，在信中他非常清楚地表明了進行核試驗的原因，這是一封很短的信，你可以在網上找到它，印度試驗的目的本質上是為了加強印度對中國的防禦，中國被視為主要問題，當然，在克林頓執政期間，美國和中國的關係比現在更好，但盡管如此，瓦傑帕伊先生還是對克林頓先生說，印度和美國應該聯合起來對抗中國，這種趨勢一直在持續，這也使印度越來越接近以色列，作為更大的區域戰略的一部分，當然，以色列和以色列在莫迪領導下的印度、內塔尼亞胡領導下的以色列以及莫迪領導下的印度以及猶太複國主義和印度教民族主義方麵也團結在一起是共同的反對伊斯蘭教等等，所以這是戰略的一部分，所以莫迪先生非常希望與美國走得更近，然而他麵臨兩個問題，正如我們之前多次討論過的那樣，我之前和你討論過很多次，我也在很多其他地方說過，西方經濟體，尤其是美國經濟體，目前並不處於非常有利的地位，無法為大多數合作夥伴提供任何經濟上有吸引力的東西，他們無法建立鞏固的可持續關係，作為更大的合作夥伴，作為更富有的合作夥伴，他們能夠為合作夥伴提供一些好處，所以另一方麵，美國和西方不那麽有吸引力，那麽烏克蘭戰爭當然造成了一種局麵，莫迪被迫向俄羅斯靠攏，而這比他希望的要多，因為向美國靠攏的另一部分當然也是放棄印度與俄羅斯曆史上牢固的關係，而這一直依賴於兩件事，其中一件事當然是偉大的國防合作，另一件事是某種經濟關係。現在，印度人越來越多地從西方國家而不是俄羅斯尋求武器，國防合作肯定被削弱了。但與此同時，隨著烏克蘭衝突的爆發，油價上漲使印度陷入困境，也給了印度“胡蘿卜加大棒”的機會，以維持至少某種體麵的與俄羅斯的關係。胡蘿卜當然是印度能夠廉價進口石油，因為如果沒有這種廉價石油，印度的通貨膨脹率將大幅上升，因為印度非常依賴進口石油。所以，胡蘿卜當然是，呃，大棒當然是，對不起，大棒是印度需要進口這種石油，胡蘿卜當然是，莫迪的許多企業親信通過進口廉價的俄羅斯石油賺了很多錢，然後賣給歐洲客戶因為印度出口等，所以他們有這種循環貿易，俄羅斯也受益等. 所以在俄羅斯和印度達成的新的盧比盧布貿易協議，印度一直在購買大量俄羅斯石油，但另一方麵，俄羅斯人對這些協議的結果並不特別滿意，他們很高興地加入了進來，希望一切都會好起來，但他們發現，雖然印度以石油等形式從俄羅斯購買了大量商品，但俄羅斯想要從印度購買的並不多，所以俄羅斯最終得到了一堆盧比，不知道該怎麽處理，這是另一個因素，因此，在與西方日益密切的關係中，印度不得不希望與俄羅斯和中國保持距離，但俄羅斯和中國都很難做到這一點，我想說，你知道印度，嗯，印度的市場今天就像印度普通的鄰裏市場一樣，越來越依賴進口商品來自中國的非常高效、廉價的產品可以降低通貨膨脹率，否則通貨膨脹率會比現在更高，所以印度依賴這一點，許多印度商人希望與印度保持良好關係，但盡管如此，印度繼續通過參加中國南海的軍事演習來挑釁中國，所謂的航行自由演習加入四方會談，與日本越來越親近，日本很高興參與美國試圖將亞太地區轉變為印度洋太平洋等的嚐試，而印度是主要工具，所以這是一個複雜的情況。莫迪非常希望與美國走得更近，但情況不允許，但莫迪並不急於向中國屈服，最後一點，莫迪在學術界獲得的許多媒體讚譽中，他們指出的一件事是，印度正在失去在北方邦聯合進步聯盟政府領導下發起的向中國靠攏的戰略2004 年至 2004 年對印度來說是非常糟糕的，因為印度現在有非常大的貿易逆差，印度在 R 世界排名中正在下滑等等，但事實是，如果你想對印度的貿易逆差做點什麽，中國不會阻止你，中國不會提供銷售其產品，但中國不會阻止印度成為製造中心，然而，成為製造中心，呃，一個經濟強國需要的是強有力的產業政策，一個明確的發展戰略，擴大印度市場，印度不能成為世界其他國家的出口平台，無論如何，印度首先需要滿足其極度貧困的公民的需求，需要增加他們的收入，需要增加他們的消費，需要增加，因此，創造一個更大的印度市場，擁有良好的就業率，高就業率，高工資，將為印度的增長創造巨大的刺激，任何人都可以實現這一點通過體麵的經濟和工業政策，印度並沒有走這條路。在莫迪的領導下，印度總體上使人民貧困，造成了越來越多的不平等，印度市場萎縮而不是擴大，而所有這些才是印度落後的真正原因，而不是因為中國的存在，甚至不是因為印度與中國的貿易。我想說，今天很多受過教育的印度人都很樂意對一個中國政策提出質疑，就像美國試圖做的那樣，它試圖讓它變得模棱兩可，對吧，它一直都是模棱兩可的，正如你知道的，美國在 1970 年代承認中國的那一刻，它還通過了《台灣關係法》，以便向中國提供武器，這樣一方麵它就說你知道一個中國原則，一個中國政策，另一方麵它已經淡化了它，所以印度的觀點可以朝那個方向發展，不幸的是，就像我說的，印度的許多人都認識到印度對印度支那關係的整個敘述一直存在很大問題，但這些人仍然是少數，在我看來，他們是對的，但他們被限製在公共話語中的某些領域，公共話語的主要內容始終是，你知道，中國所做的一切都應該被視為獨裁霸權，你知道，中國試圖在亞洲和其他地方稱霸，追求自己的經濟利益等等，我的意思並不是說中國不應該追求自己的經濟利益，但我認為中國的天才在於試圖與合作夥伴找到互利互惠，你知道我們受益，但你也受益，這就是中國與該地區和世界上許多合作夥伴建立關係的方式，這是一個非常重要的問題，我想說，我們並不完全知道答案，一方麵，人們希望聯合政府的存在會給一些甚至當國大黨政府改善與中國的關係時，也沒有采取足夠的措施來是針對印度的印度中國邊界爭端提出虛假的敘述，如果沒有這樣做，莫迪很有可能在這種情況下使印度輿論傾向於反華方向，所以這是局勢的另一個因素，局勢的第三個因素是印度國防領導層是否負責任或不負責任，各軍種的首腦能否對總理說，總理，這是一個非常危險的立場，我們無法抵禦任何軍事挑戰，任何與中國的軍事衝突，所以請小心等等，我們不知道情況是否如此，事實上，從我的閱讀中可以清楚地看出，在過去十年中，莫迪政府一直在對軍隊進行改革，這可能會讓讚成的人擔任高層職位，所以你知道這是怎麽回事，我也覺得，巴基斯坦簽證和中國簽證都有可能莫迪政府將以一種完全妄想的方式行事，你知道，這不是基於對印度實力或印度利益的任何現實評估，而是一種完全妄想的方式，它努力支持美國，不考慮印度軍事或經濟準備的局限性，他們很可能會采取一個有問題的立場，他們可能會讓印度卷入戰爭，我認為他們不會錯過，因為莫迪已經做出了非常重要的決定，比如貨幣廢除，比如新冠疫情封鎖，而沒有關心普通印度人會發生什麽，我認為這種決定並不超出他的範圍，我想說，在受過教育的精英中，不幸的是，對於我們來說，印度中產階級是世界上最支持美國的，因此他們傾向於接受美國說這是正確的立場，而不是你知道印度有良好的反帝國主義曆史，在獨立後的頭幾十年裏，印度的大部分外交政策論述都遵循了試圖理解帝國主義、它的曆史、抵製它的必要性等等的嚐試。

India has on the whole under Modi
impoverished its people created ever
more inequality Shrunk the Indian market
rather than expanded it and all of this
is the real reason why India is falling
behind not because of the existence of
China or even India's trade with
China I mean so I I guess I'd like to
give my answer in three parts so the
first is that uh basically what we have
now is shift back to Coalition politics
that is to say Modi relies particularly
on two big allies to take him over the
272 Mark which will allow him to have um
majority government so this means that
uh he has to soften his hindutva
politics he has to accept a lot of it
but I think so so there is reason to
imagine that he will not be able to be
as Hardline as he has been however
whether this will translate into foreign
policy is a separate question for a
number of reasons so let me say first of
all that you have to understand that
modi's party which is the BJP which has
been in power before it was in power in
Coalition between 1998 and 2004 because
you see even after all the mobilization
based on Hindu identity and anti-muslim
politics which they engaged in very
strongly in the 1990s they were not able
to pass the r L 25% of the vote Mark
they had to enter into Coalition and so
this party has always been in favor of
two things which do not Aur very well
for indo-china relations the first is
that they have from a very early point
in their history seen China as the main
enemy of India they have always targeted
China going back to the 62 war in fact
yes you know the 62 War if you think
about it was a problem you know was a m
it was based on many mistakes made by
India but because they have consistently
kept up this you know opposition to
neeru's earlier policy of Friendship
with China you know Hindi Hindi Chini by
by you know that Indians and Chinese
were brothers etc etc this policy the
BJP the Hindu nationalist right has
essentially milk the failures of 1962
for everything they can in order to
accuse any policy of Friendship with
China as being misguided deluded Etc and
by keeping up a very high decible
rhetoric of this sort they have
essentially prevented a process that
India needs to have to go through uh in
order to have good relations with China
in order to benefit from uh good
relation with China both in terms of
security and in terms of economy I think
India indo-chinese cooperation could go
a very long way but this whole process
is being stopped and what is that
process the Indian position on the
border disputes which is the main issue
that that India keeps uh raking up the
Indian position has been based as many
scholars in India today recognize on a
colonial position the colonial drawings
lines drawn on a map there are many
reasons to believe that the position
that India is taking is not a valid one
and that the position China is taking
which is that let's sit down negotiate
look into the interests what works Etc
and also while doing so On the Border
dispute let's Advance our interests
let's Advance our cooperation on other
matters so China has always been very
shall we say giving in terms of its
relationship with with India but without
going through this process of realizing
that India's territorial claims are not
valid that they are more open to
question Indians will not come up with
any position now come up to a
Cooperative attitude to China no matter
who is in power now having said that
given the reality that India's position
was not
viable history itself I mean reality
itself exerted a certain type of gravity
on Indian government so that in the
period since the 1980s basically India
and China have engaged in a lot of
intensive diplomacy which continued even
under the vajpai government and then
also under the UPA government of Mr
Manmohan Singh from 2004 to 2014 and
this led to considerable improvements in
relations between India and and China
and a creeping recognition that yes
there should be negotiations On the
Border dispute and while those
negotiations take place let's also
deepen our economic relationship so all
of that was proceeding generally well
until it was cut short by Modi now and I
want to talk about Modi in a minute but
let me also say one final thing before
going on to Modi and the other things
he's done the key to understanding I
mean or let me rephrase that the UPA
government in particular made big
advances in good relations with China
but what you had essentially they
achieved progress in indo-chinese
relations but they did not at the same
time transform the discourse within
India they did not say look folks it's
time for us to change our attitude
towards the Border dispute we need to go
through a process of learning we need to
acknowledge that our position is not
100% correct so they did not put this
out in the public discourse and that
means that the Hindu right has continued
to exploit anti-china sentiments in
India they have been allowed to remain
and this is a fault of the UPA
government and I think any secure
progress in India that cannot be easily
reversed relies on having this process
this ideological process in India so so
that's about uh China and the progress
and and and under Mr Modi essentially Mr
Modi I think Mr Modi is quite well aware
that India cannot win any kind of
military confrontation with China but
nevertheless little skirmishes have been
exploited to the
fullest in an anti-china rhetoric which
then consolidates the Hindu and Indian
Nation behind Mr Modi Etc so he has been
totally free and he has also not been
particularly good at pursuing you know
the economic relationship and so on so I
mean quite frankly I personally think
that modi's foreign policy generally
consists of a whole bunch of photo
opportunities for himself and other
world leaders you know in when Modi
dresses you know as you may know he has
this obsession with dressing in certain
ways and you know very expensively and
so on so that's all he seems to care
about and the only other thing he cares
about is giving his
corporate cronies contracts abroad
particularly as you may know for example
Mr adani accompanied Mr Modi on a state
trip to Australia and came back with a
bunch of you know mining contracts and
what have you so these are the sorts of
things otherwise he really has not much
of any foreign policy so this lack of a
defined foreign policy plus a desire to
exploit anti-china and of course
anti-pakistan sentiments in India means
that Mr Mr Modi is not been very
conducive to good relations with China
and finally the third part which is that
Mr Modi like the previous BJP government
is also ideologically much more in favor
of good relations and ever closer
relations with the United States the
best example of this would be that you
know when um Mr vajpai the previous BJP
prime minister who was in office between
1998 to 2004 Mr B within days of coming
into Power conducted a second nuclear
test if you remember night well you may
not remember but you may know that he
cons conducted a second nuclear test and
he immediately following on uh the
nuclear test he wrote a letter to
President Clinton in which he made it
very clear that the reason for the
nuclear a short letter and you can find
it on the web the purpose of the Indian
tests was to essentially strengthen
India's defenses against China China was
regarded as the main problem and
essentially this was of course under
Clinton still in China us China
relations were better than what they are
now but nevertheless essentially Mr
vajpai was saying to Mr Clinton that
India and the US should make common
cause against China and this tendency
has continued it has also involved India
becoming ever closer to Israel as part
of a larger Regional strategy and and of
course what also unites is Israel in
India under Modi Israel under Netanyahu
and India under Modi and generally
Zionism and hindutva is the common
opposition to Islam and so on so this is
a part of the strategy so Mr Modi would
dearly love to go ever
closer to the United States however he
faces two problems as we have discussed
on this you know many times before with
I have discussed with you many times
before and I have said many other places
the Western economies and the US economy
in particular are not in a very strong
position right now to offer anything
economically attractive to most of their
Partners they are not capable of uh
creating cementing sustainable
relationships where they provide some
benefit as the bigger partner as the
Richer partner to their Partners so and
on the other hand the US and the West
are not so attractive then what has
happened of course is that the Ukraine
war has created a situation in which
Modi is forced to lean closer to Russia
than it would like to because the other
part of Leaning closer to the US is also
of course to abandon India's
historically strong
relations with Russia and which have
been dependent on two things in
particular one is of course great
defense cooperation and the other is a
certain economic relationship now
defense cooperation has been certainly
diluted on the part of the Indians who
are seeking weapons more and more from
Western countries rather than from
Russia but at the same time with the
Ukraine uh conflict the rise in the
price of oil has put India in a bind and
also has given both carrot and stick to
maintain at least some kind of decent
relation with Russia the carrot of
course is that India is able to import
oil cheaply because without this cheap
oil the rate of inflation in India would
go up massively because India is very
heavily reliant on imported oil so there
is that and the uh the Stick Of course
is that sorry that's the stick that in
India can India needs to import that and
the carrot is that of course many of
modi's corporate cronies are making a
lot of money importing cheap Russian oil
and then selling it onto European
customers as Indian exports Etc so that
they there is this kind of circular
trade going on Russia also benefits Etc
so under the a new arrange M of rupee
Ruble trade that Russia and India have
India has been buying a lot of Russian
oil but on the other side by the way the
Russians are not particularly happy with
the outcome of these Arrangements they
had entered it very happily hoping that
everything would be fine but what they
are finding is that while India is
buying a lot from Russia in the form of
oil Etc there is not much that Russia
need wants to buy from India so Russia
is ending up with a pile of rupees it
doesn't know what to do with so that's
another another element so that in this
ever closer relations with the West as
India has had to would like to distance
itself both from Russia and China but it
is finding it hard to do so in the case
of Russia in the case of china as well I
would say that you know India uh India's
markets are today like ordinary
neighborhood markets in India are more
and more reliant on importing goods from
China which being very efficiently
produced inexpensive keep down the rate
of inflation which would otherwise go
even higher than it has already gone so
India is reliant on that many Indian
businessmen would like to keep good
relations with India but nevertheless
India continues to provoke China by
joining military exercises in the South
China SE with the so-called freedom of
navigation exercises joining the quad
getting ever closer with Japan being
part happily engaging in the US attempt
to transform the Asia Pacific into the
indopacific and so on with India as a
major tool so it's a complex situation
Modi would dearly love to be even closer
to the US but circumstances are not
permitting that so but nevertheless Modi
is not eager to to give into China and
one final Point many uh of modi's
accolades in the media in scholarship in
the scholarly world one of the things
they point to is that India is losing
that the strategy of moving closer to
China initiated under the up Congress L
UPA government of 2004 to4 has been very
bad for India because India now has a
very big trade deficit and India is not
you know is sliding in its R world
rankings and and so on but the fact is
that if you want to do something about
India's trade deficit China is not
stopping you China is not China is
offering to sell its products but China
is not stopping India from becoming a
manufacturing Hub what becoming a
manufacturing Hub uh an economic power
requires however is a muscular
industrial policy a clear development
strategy which expands the Indian market
India cannot be a export platform for
the rest of the world and in any case
India first needs to fulfill the needs
of its extremely deprived citizens it
needs to increase their incomes it needs
to increase their consumption it needs
to increase and and so creating a larger
Indian market with a well employed with
high employment good wages will create a
vast stimulus for India's growth which
can be fulfilled by any you know by a
decent economic and Industrial policy
but India is not following this route
India has on the whole under Modi
impoverished its people created ever
more inequality Shrunk the Indian market
rather than expanded it and all of this
is the real reason why India is falling
behind not because of the existence of
China or even India's trade with China
I would say that today a lot of educated
Indians are all too happy to raise
questions about the one China policy
like the US is trying to do it's trying
to make it ambiguous right and it has
always been ambiguous as you know the
moment that the US recognized China in
the 1970s it also passed the Taiwan
relations act so that it would send arms
to China so that on the one hand it was
saying you know one China principle on
one China policy and on the other hand
it was already diluting it so India is
can Indian opinion can go in that
direction unfortunately like I said many
people in India recognize that the whole
Narrative of Indochina relations has
been very problematic in India but these
people still remain a minority they are
to in my view they are right but they
are confined to certain niches in the
public discourse the main line public
discourse is always that you know
whatever China does should be regarded
as you know authoritarian hegemonic you
know trying to be hegemonic in in Asia
and elsewhere and pursuing its own
economic interests and and and so on and
so forth and I mean not saying that
China should not pursue its own economic
interest but I think China's genius has
laan in trying to find mutual benefits
with its partners that you know we
benefit but you also benefit and this is
the way in which China has built its
relation
with its many many partners in the
region and in the
world that is a very important question
and I would say that we do not fully
know the answer uh on the one hand one
would hope that the existence of the
coalition government would P some sort
of restraint on India Vis of each China
that even when the Congress L government
was improving relations with China did
not do enough to dislodge the false
narrative about India about the India
China border dispute in India and
without with that not having been done
it's quite possible that Modi will be
able to make Indian opinion lean in an
anti-china Direction in those
circumstances however so so that's
another element in the situation and a
third element in the situation is how
responsible or irresponsible is India's
defense leadership
will the heads of the various armed
services be able to say to the Prime
Minister look prime minister this is a
very dangerous position to take we
cannot stand up to any military
challenge any military conflict with
China so please be careful Etc we don't
know whether this is the case and indeed
from my reading it's clear that over the
last decade the Modi government has been
introducing changes in the Army which
are likely to put yes people in top
positions so that you know this is and I
also feel that uh both Visa Pakistan and
Visa China the possibility that the Modi
government will act in a completely
delusional manner you know not based on
any realistic assessment of India's
strengths or for that matter India's
interests but in a completely delusional
manner in its effort to be Pro us and
unmindful of in the limitations of
India's military or economic
preparedness
they may very well take a problematic
deeply problematic position They may
involve India in Wars I don't put it
past them given the way in which Modi
has taken terribly consequential
decisions like demonetization like the
covid lockdowns without a care for what
happens to ordinary Indians I think that
this kind of decision is not Beyond him
I would say that uh among the educated
Elite which unfortunately for us for the
indo-china relations Is among the most
Pro Us in the world the middle class in
India is among the most Pro Us in the
world therefore their tendency is to
accept what the US says as the correct
position rather than you know India has
had a good Anti-Imperialist past and in
the first many decades of Independence
much of India's foreign policy discourse
did follow an attempt to understand
imperialism its history the need to
resist it and so on.