16 Nobel Prize-winning economists letter warns Trump policies

We the undersigned

16 位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主遇見特朗普通貨膨脹炸彈

信息由 2001 年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主約瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨率先發出

1... George A. Akerlof (2001) 

University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. [phone] Fax No. [phone]
[e-mail]

2... Sir Angus Deaton (2015) 

School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
[e-mail], [e-mail]

3... Claudia Goldin (2023)

Henry Lee Professor of Economics, Harvard University
[e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail]

4... Sir Oliver Hart (2016) 

Lewis P. and Linda L. Geyser University Professor, Harvard University,
[e-mail]
Tel: [phone] Fax: [phone]
[e-mail]

5... Eric S. Maskin (2007) 

Adams University Professor, Harvard University,
 [e-mail]
Tel: [phone],     Fax: [phone]
[e-mail]

6... Daniel L. McFadden (2000) 

E. Morris Cox Professor Emeritus of Economics
Presidential Professor of Health Economics at USC
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. [phone]
Fax No. [phone]
[e-mail]

7... Paul R. Milgrom (2020) 
Professor, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

8... Roger B. Myerson (2007) 

Roger Myerson, Professor of Global Conflict Studies, University of Chicago
[e-mail]

9... Edmund S. Phelps (2006) 

Edmund S. Phelps, professor International Affairs, Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

10... Paul M. Romer (2018) 

Professor Center for the Economics of Ideas,  Boston College
Tele: 617-552-3985
[e-mail] 

11... Alvin E. Roth (2012) 

Alvin E. Rothm Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Phone: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

12... William F. Sharpe (1990) 

William F. Sharpe,  Professor of Finance, Stanford University

13... Robert J. Shiller (2013) 

Robert J. Shiller,  Sterling Professor of Economics,  Yale University
[e-mail]
Tele: [phone]
Fax:  [phone]

14... Christopher A. Sims (2011) 

Department of Economics, Princeton University

Tele: 609 258 4033 [e-mail], [e-mail]              

15... Joseph E. Stiglitz (2001) 

Joseph E. Stiglitz, University Professor
[e-mail]
212-854-0671, Fax: [phone]

16... Robert B. Wilson (2020)

Robert Wilson, Professor of Management, Stanford University
[phone]
[phone]
[e-mail]

16 位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主遇見特朗普通貨膨脹炸彈

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation

Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb

Hans Nichols   Jun 25, 2024 - Politics & Policy

16 位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主加入總統競選，並發出嚴厲警告：如果前總統特朗普在 11 月獲勝，他的計劃將重新引發通貨膨脹並對全球經濟造成持久損害。
重要性：諾貝爾獎得主利用他們的學術聲望支持拜登政府數周來一直在提出的政治論點：特朗普執政期間，通貨膨脹會更嚴重。

• “雖然我們每個人對各種經濟政策的細節都有不同的看法，但我們都同意，喬·拜登的經濟議程遠遠優於唐納德·特朗普，”這 16 位經濟學家在一封信中寫道，這封信最先由 Axios 獲得。
放大：自 2022 年夏季物價飆升以來，民主黨一直在為經濟問題辯護。

• 但他們的各種解釋——包括短暫使用“拜登經濟學”一詞和大規模媒體購買——似乎都沒有奏效。

• 選民們並不認同白宮所說的經濟狀況很好。

• 現在拜登的團隊想要發起攻勢，引起人們對特朗普實際提議的關注——包括他計劃對所有進口產品征收 10% 的新關稅，以及對中國商品征收最低 60% 的關稅。
新聞熱點：經濟學家的說法是拜登競選團隊更廣泛嚐試的一部分，旨在將 2024 年大選變成兩位候選人未來計劃之間的選擇——而不一定是對拜登履曆的全民公投。

• “我們認為，特朗普的第二個任期將對美國在世界上的經濟地位產生負麵影響，並對美國國內經濟產生不穩定影響，”經濟學家在信中寫道。

• “許多美國人擔心通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹已經下降得非常快。人們有理由擔心唐納德·特朗普會以他財政上不負責任的預算重新引發這種通貨膨脹，”他們寫道。

這一信息由 2001 年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主約瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨率先發出。

• 與他一起發出信息的還有喬治·阿克洛夫 (2001)、安格斯·迪頓爵士 (2015)、克勞迪婭·戈爾丁 (2023)、奧利弗·哈特爵士 (2016)、埃裏克·S·馬斯金 (2007)、丹尼爾·L·麥克法登 (2000)、保羅·R·米爾格羅姆 (2020)、羅傑·B·邁爾森 (2007)、埃德蒙·S·菲爾普斯 (2006)、保羅·M·羅默 (2018)、阿爾文·E·羅斯 (2012)、威廉·F·夏普 (1990)、羅伯特·J·席勒 (2013)、克裏斯托弗·A·西姆斯 (2011) 和羅伯特·B·威爾遜 (2020)。
現狀：預計經濟將成為周四晚間總統辯論的焦點，兩位候選人都在加強對錢包問題的處理。

• 除了承諾將美國企業稅率從 21% 降至 20% 外，特朗普還希望取消休閑和酒店業工人的小費稅。

• 拜登堅持提高企業稅的計劃——並承諾年收入低於 40 萬美元的家庭不會增加稅收。

• 根據一項新的無黨派分析，這兩種做法背後都隱含著持續增長的聯邦債務，特朗普第一任期內的減稅和支出使債務增加的幅度幾乎是拜登的兩倍。
縮小：拜登執政期間，經濟穩步增長，勞動力市場強勁，通脹率居高不下。

• 選民們對前兩個問題並不看好，但將第三個問題歸咎於他，他們告訴民意調查人員，高物價是他們經濟不安的主要原因。超過一半的選民（錯誤地）認為美國正處於衰退之中。

• 根據福克斯新聞最近的一項調查，約 68% 的美國人仍然認為經濟“不太好”或“糟糕”。其餘 32% 的選民認為經濟“非常好”或“很好”。

• 這項民意調查顯示，與之前更為嚴峻的調查相比，情況有所改善。
拜登政府正試圖與選民達成妥協，要求他們接受通脹已經下降的事實，同時承認還有更多工作要做。

• 官員們也在利用他們擁有的手段試圖說服選民，他們專注於降低價格。財政部長珍妮特·耶倫周一宣布了一項 1 億美元的計劃，用於支持經濟適用房融資。

• 白宮也開始持消極態度，警告稱特朗普當選總統將使通脹率達到新的高度，1 月 6 日對民主機構的攻擊可能會破壞全球經濟穩定。

16 位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主警告稱，特朗普的經濟計劃可能會重新引發通貨膨脹

作者：Aimee Picchi 2024 年 6 月 25 日

選民對通貨膨脹和整體經濟感到沮喪 02:11

全球 16 位最著名的經濟學家（均為諾貝爾經濟學獎得主）警告稱，如果前總統唐納德·特朗普在 11 月贏得總統大選並推進其經濟計劃，他可能會引發通貨膨脹。

“許多美國人都擔心通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹已經下降得非常快。人們有理由擔心唐納德·特朗普會因其財政不負責任的預算而重新引發通貨膨脹，”根據經濟學家簽署的一封信，其中包括 2001 年獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎的哥倫比亞大學教授約瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨；以及 2013 年獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎的耶魯大學教授羅伯特·席勒。

這一警告發布之際，美國仍在與頑固的通脹作鬥爭，美聯儲維持 20 多年來的最高利率，目標是冷卻經濟並將通脹率降至 2% 的年率。盡管通脹率已從 2022 年 6 月 9.1% 的近期峰值回落，但對通脹感到厭倦的美國人對經濟感到沮喪，根據最新的 CBS 新聞民意調查，有 60% 的人將其評為糟糕、相當糟糕或非常糟糕。

其他經濟學家也警告稱，特朗普的政策可能會引發通脹，例如他提議對所有進口產品征收 10% 的全麵關稅以驅逐移民。彼得森國際經濟研究所的專家表示，關稅計劃將為典型的美國家庭每年增加 1,700 美元的成本，本質上是一種通脹稅。
經濟學家警告稱，驅逐移民可能會減少勞動力，給美國工人帶來更多競爭，推高工資，也會增加通脹壓力。

雖然斯蒂格利茨和其他 15 位諾貝爾獎獲得者的信中沒有詳細說明特朗普計劃的任何部分，但它確實讚揚了拜登總統的一些經濟政策，從他的《通脹削減法案》到對美國製造業的投資。

信中說：“在擔任總統的頭四年裏，拜登簽署了對美國經濟的重大投資法案，包括基礎設施、國內製造業和氣候投資。”“這些投資加在一起，可能會提高生產力和經濟增長，同時降低長期通脹壓力，促進清潔能源轉型。”

他們補充說：“雖然我們每個人對各種經濟政策的細節都有不同的看法，但我們都同意拜登的經濟議程遠遠優於唐納德·特朗普。”

“頂級經濟學家、諾貝爾獎獲得者和商界領袖都知道，美國承受不起特朗普危險的經濟議程，”拜登競選發言人詹姆斯·辛格告訴 CBS MoneyWatch。

“在唐納德·特朗普的美國，富人支付更少，而工薪階層支付更多，”他補充道。

“美國人民不需要毫無價值、與現實脫節的諾貝爾獎獲得者來告訴他們哪位總統給他們帶來了更多錢，”特朗普競選全國新聞秘書卡羅琳·萊維特在發給 CBS MoneyWatch 的電子郵件聲明中表示。

如果再次當選，特朗普計劃實施“支持增長、支持能源、支持就業的議程，以降低生活成本並提升所有美國人的生活水平，”她補充道。

“我們簽名者”：閱讀這封信
您可以在下麵閱讀這封信的文本：

我們簽名者對特朗普第二屆政府對美國經濟的風險深感擔憂。

經濟成功的最重要決定因素包括法治以及經濟和政治確定性。對於像美國這樣與其他國家有著深厚關係的國家來說，遵守國際規範並與其他國家保持正常穩定的關係也是必不可少的。唐納德·特朗普及其行為和政策的變化無常威脅著這種穩定以及美國在世界上的地位。

雖然我們每個人對各種經濟政策的細節都有不同的看法，但我們都同意喬·拜登的經濟議程遠遠優於唐納德·特朗普。在擔任總統的頭四年裏，喬·拜登簽署了對美國經濟的重大投資法案，包括對基礎設施、國內製造業和氣候的投資。這些投資加在一起可能會提高生產力和經濟增長，同時降低長期通脹壓力並促進清潔能源轉型。

在喬·拜登擔任總統期間，我們還看到了勞動力市場異常強勁和公平的複蘇——這得益於他的疫情刺激計劃。喬·拜登再當四年總統，將使他能夠繼續支持包容性的美國經濟複蘇。

許多美國人擔心通貨膨脹，而通貨膨脹已經下降得非常快。人們有理由擔心唐納德·特朗普會重新點燃這種通貨膨脹，因為他的

財政上不負責任的預算。包括 Evercore、安聯、牛津經濟研究院和彼得森研究所在內的無黨派研究人員預測，如果唐納德·特朗普成功實施他的議程，將會增加通貨膨脹。

這次選舉的結果將在未來幾年甚至幾十年產生經濟影響。我們認為，特朗普的第二個任期將對美國在世界上的經濟地位產生負麵影響，並對美國國內經濟產生不穩定影響。

簽名，

喬治·A·阿克洛夫（2001）

安格斯·迪頓爵士（2015）

克勞迪婭·戈爾丁（2023）

奧利弗·哈特爵士（2016）

埃裏克·S·馬斯金（2007）

丹尼爾·L·麥克法登（2000）

保羅·R·米爾格羅姆（2020）

羅傑·B·邁爾森（2007）

埃德蒙·S·菲爾普斯（2006）

保羅·M·羅默（2018）

阿爾文·E·羅斯（2012）

威廉·F·夏普（1990）

羅伯特·J·席勒（2013）

克裏斯托弗·A·西姆斯（2011）

約瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨（2001）

羅伯特·B·威爾遜 (2020)

Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb

 

Hans Nichols   Jun 25, 2024 - Politics & Policy

 

Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump's plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.

Why it matters: The Nobel laureates are lending their academic prestige to a political argument the Biden administration has been making for weeks: Inflation would be worse under Trump.

 

• "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump," the 16 economists write in a letter, first obtained by Axios.

Zoom in: Since prices spiked in the summer of 2022, Democrats have been playing defense on the economy.

 

• But their various explanations — including a brief embrace of the term "Bidenomics" and big media buys — don't seem to have worked. 

 

• Voters aren't vibing with an economy that the White House says is great.

 

• Now Biden's team wants to go on offense and draw attention to Trump's actual proposals — including his plans to impose fresh 10% duties on all imports, and minimum 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.

 

Driving the news: The economists' claim is part of a broader attempt by Biden's campaign to turn the 2024 election into a choice between the two candidates' plans for the future — and not necessarily a referendum on Biden's record.

 

• "We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy," the economists write in the letter.

 

• "Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," they write.

The message was spearheaded by Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001. 

 

• He was joined by George A. Akerlof (2001), Sir Angus Deaton (2015), Claudia Goldin (2023), Sir Oliver Hart (2016), Eric S. Maskin (2007), Daniel L. McFadden (2000), Paul R. Milgrom (2020), Roger B. Myerson (2007), Edmund S. Phelps (2006), Paul M. Romer (2018), Alvin E. Roth (2012), William F. Sharpe (1990), Robert J. Shiller (2013), Christopher A. Sims (2011), and Robert B. Wilson (2020).

State of play: The economy is expected to be a focus of Thursday night's presidential debate, and both candidates are sharpening their approach to pocketbook issues.

 

• Besides promising corporate America to lower its tax rate from 21% to 20%, Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries.

 

• Biden is sticking with his plan to raise taxes on corporations — and his promise that households who make less than $400,000 a year wouldn't see a tax increase.

 

• Looming behind both approaches is a federal debt that continues to grow, with tax cuts and spending in Trump's first term adding nearly twice to the debt as much as Biden's, according to a new nonpartisan analysis.

Zoom out: Biden has presided over a period of solid growth, a strong labor market, and stubbornly high inflation.

 

• Voters don't give him much credit for the first two but they blame him for the third, telling pollsters that high prices are a major source of their economic unease. More than half of voters (wrongly) think the U.S. is in a recession.

 

• Some 68% of Americans still think the economy is "not so good" or "poor" according to a recent Fox News survey. The remaining 32% of voters say it's "excellent" or "good."

 

• And that poll showed some improvement over earlier and grimmer surveys.

The Biden administration is trying to meet voters halfway, asking them to accept that inflation has come down while acknowledging there's more work to do.

 

• Officials also are using the levers they have to try to convince voters that they're focused on lowering prices. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's on Monday announced a $100 million plan to support affordable housing financing.

 

• The White House also is going negative, warning that a Trump presidency would take inflation to new heights and that Jan. 6-style attacks on democratic institutions could undermine global economic stability.

16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warn that Trump's economic plans could reignite inflation

By Aimee Picchi  June 25, 2024

Voters feeling frustrated with inflation and overall economy 02:11

Sixteen of the world's most notable economists — all Nobel Prize winners — are warning that former President Donald Trump could stoke inflation if he wins the presidency in November and moves forward with his economic plans. 

"Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," according to a letter signed by the economists, who include Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001; and Yale professor Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2013. 

The warning comes as the U.S. continues to battle sticky inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the highest interest rates in more than two decades with the goal of cooling the economy and driving inflation down to a 2% annual rate. Even though inflation has cooled from a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation-weary Americans are glum about the economy, with 6 in 10 rating it as either bad, fairly bad or very bad, according to the latest CBS News poll. 

Trump's policies could prove to be inflationary, other economists also warned, such as his proposal to create a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports to deporting immigrants. The tariff plan would add $1,700 in annual costs for the typical U.S. household, essentially acting as an inflationary tax, according to experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

Deporting immigrants could shrink the labor force, creating more competition for U.S. workers and pushing up wages, also adding to inflationary pressure, economists warn. 

While the letter from Stiglitz and the other 15 Nobel Prize winners didn't detail the specifics of any part of Trump's plans, it did single out praise for some of President Joe Biden's economic policies, ranging from his Inflation Reduction Act to investment in U.S. manufacturing. 

"In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing and climate," the letter said. "Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition."

They added, "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's."

"Top economists, Nobel Prize winners, and business leaders all know America can't afford Trump's dangerous economic agenda," Biden campaign spokesperson, James Singer, told CBS MoneyWatch.

 "In Donald Trump's America, the rich pay less, and working Americans pay more," he added.

"The American people don't need worthless out-of-touch Nobel Prize winners to tell them which president put more money in their pockets," Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement to CBS MoneyWatch.

If re-elected, Trump plans to implement a "pro-growth, pro-energy, pro-jobs agenda to bring down the cost of living and uplift all Americans," she added.

"We the undersigned": Read the letter

You can read the text of the letter below:

We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy. 

Among the most important determinants of economic success are the rule of law and economic and political certainty. For a country like the U.S., which is embedded in deep relationships with other countries, conforming to international norms and having normal and stable relationships with other countries is also an imperative. Donald Trump and the vagaries of his actions and policies threaten this stability and the U.S.'s standing in the world. 

While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's. In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, and climate. Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition. 

During Joe Biden's presidency we have also seen a remarkably strong and equitable labor market recovery — enabled by his pandemic stimulus. An additional four years of Joe Biden's presidency would allow him to continue supporting an inclusive U.S. economic recovery. 

Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets. Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation. 

The outcome of this election will have economic repercussions for years, and possibly decades, to come. We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy. 

Signed, 

George A. Akerlof (2001) 

University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. [phone] Fax No. [phone]
[e-mail]

Sir Angus Deaton (2015) 

School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
[e-mail], [e-mail]

Claudia Goldin (2023)

Henry Lee Professor of Economics, Harvard University
[e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail]

Sir Oliver Hart (2016) 

Eric S. Maskin (2007) 

Daniel L. McFadden (2000) 

Paul R. Milgrom (2020) 

Roger B. Myerson (2007) 

Edmund S. Phelps (2006) 

Paul M. Romer (2018) 

Alvin E. Roth (2012) 

William F. Sharpe (1990) 

Robert J. Shiller (2013) 

Christopher A. Sims (2011) 

Joseph E. Stiglitz (2001) 

Robert B. Wilson (2020)