Brian Schmidt 中國起美國衰 戰爭還是和平變革

中國崛起與美國衰落：權力轉移與戰爭還是和平變革？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y4ZkdHxxc0&ab_channel=

2024年6月12日
政治科學研討會：大分裂？世界如何分裂，我們對世界政治的看法有什麽新變化？

Brian Schmidt
中國崛起與美國衰落：權力轉移與戰爭還是和平變革？

中國是一個崛起的大國，而美國正在經曆相對衰落，這一共識幾乎使學者和政策製定者都仔細思考這種動態在不久的將來會如何發展。權力轉移學派提出了一個可怕的預測，即中美之間爆發大國戰爭的可能性很大。我將解釋權力轉移學派以及他們為什麽認為中美之間的戰爭是遙不可及的可能性。我還將研究一些文獻，這些文獻將和平變革視為一種適應權力分配變化的方式，而無需大國戰爭機製。在這方麵，本文將考慮兩類截然不同的文獻，探討當代最緊迫的問題之一；即中國的崛起及其對 21 世紀國際秩序的影響。

The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y4ZkdHxxc0&ab_channel=
 2024年6月12日
Political Science Workshop: The Grand Split? How The World is Dividing, what is new in our perceptions of world politics?

Brian Schmidt
The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?

The near consensus that China is a rising power, and the United States is experiencing relative decline has led both scholars and policymakers to think carefully about how this dynamic might play out in the near future. The power transition school offers a dire prognosis that a great power war between China and the United States is serious possibility. I will explain the power transition school and why they believe war between China and the United States is a distant possibility. I will also examine a body of literature that looks at peaceful change as a way of accommodating changes in the distribution of power without the mechanism of Great Power War. In this regard, the paper will consider two very different bodies of literature on one of the most pressing issues of the time; namely, the rise of China and what this means for international order in the twenty-first century.

Brian Schmidt

IR theory/realist theory/disciplinary history; American foreign policy/grand strategy

Degrees:	BA (SUNY - Potsdam) MA, PhD (SUNY - Albany)
Phone:	613-520-2600 x 1062
Email:	[e-mail]
Office:	D687 Loeb Building
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Professor

Brian C. Schmidt is Professor of Political Science. Previously he taught at the State University of New York, New Paltz and the University at Wales, Aberystwyth. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the University at Albany, State University of New York. His research and teaching interests are in international relations theory, American foreign policy, and disciplinary history. His book The Political Discourse of Anarchy (1998), which received the Choice 1998 Outstanding Academic Book Award, examines the history of International Relations from the mid-1800s to the outbreak of World War Two. He continues to pursue research on the history of the field and has published numerous articles on the historiography of International Relations. At Carleton University, Dr. Schmidt teaches courses on international relations theory, the causes of war, the United Nations, and American foreign policy.

Selected Publications

“The Need for Theory: International Relations and the Council on Foreign Relations Study Group on the Theory of International Relations, 1953-54.” International History Review 42,3 (2020): 589-606.

Historiographical Investigations in International Relations, edited by Brian C.Schmidt and Nicolas Guilhot. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.

“On the History and Historiography of International Relations.” In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations, Second Edition (Los Angeles: Sage Publications, 2013), pp. 3-28.

International Relations and the First Great Debate. London: Routledge, 2012.

Joint author with Michael C. Williams, “The Bush Doctrine and the Iraq War: Neo-Conservatives vs. Realists.” Security Studies 17 (2008): 191-220.

Imperialism and Internationalism in the Discipline of International Relations, edited by David Long and Brian C. Schmidt. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 2005.

The Political Discourse of Anarchy: A Disciplinary History of International Relations. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1998.

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