個人資料
正文

巴菲特 I hope I come next year

(2024-05-04 15:07:22) 下一個

如果還有機會再跟芒格共度一天,巴菲特想做什麽?

杜玉 

這是芒格因離世而缺席的第一年,但他的身影卻無處不在。問答環節,巴菲特會不小心脫口而出“查理,該你回答了”,他也稱,與芒格在一起的時間比獨處要快樂。

可以說,雖然99歲的芒格因離世而缺席了2024年伯克希爾股東大會,但在著名的與巴老問答環節,芒格的身影無處不在。

不僅年會的神秘短片在史上首次公開放映就是為了致敬芒格,股東大會現場今年隻賣一本書——最新版《窮查理寶典》,巴菲特也會不經意間把身邊的人當成他的“查理老大哥”。

巴菲特:與芒格在一起比獨處開心,每個人都應問問自己最後一天跟誰過

在上午場的提問環節,一個小朋友好奇,如果巴菲特還有機會再跟芒格共度一天,想做什麽?

巴菲特稱,他和芒格每天都在做令自己開心的事情。芒格很喜歡學習,對好多事情感興趣,興趣比巴菲特還要廣泛,兩人誌趣相投,在一起度過的時間比各自獨處要開心:

“我們的樂趣還在於一起犯錯誤,一起改正錯誤、吸取教訓,這好像更令人開心,因為你的合作夥伴會幫助你擺脫困境,然後你看到你們十年前做的決策現在還能賺錢。”

巴菲特坦言,如果有機會再與芒格共度一天,“跟我們之前所有的日子都不會有太大區別”:

“我從來沒見到哪個人像芒格這樣,在99歲時活到人生巔峰,全世界人都想來找你。芒格曾稱,要是知道自己哪天會去世就好了,這樣他永遠不會往那一天走去。”

說到這裏,想起老朋友的幽默之處,巴菲特禁不住笑了起來。他還稱,人總是越老越聰明,因為可以從錯誤中學習成長:

“我們仍認為世界還很有意思,到我們這麽大了,我問芒格過去2000年你最想跟誰吃飯,查理說我都已經遇到過他們了。

每個人都應該問自己,你人生的最後一天想跟誰一起度過,那現在就去遇到他們,並跟他們一起做事。”

淚目一刻:巴菲特不小心脫口而出“查理,該你回答了”

頗為令人“淚目”的一幕出現在問答環節第三個問題,巴菲特說完了自己的答案,然後轉向身旁的CEO接班人、伯克希爾除保險以外所有其他業務負責人阿貝爾,但卻脫口說出了“查理”。

巴菲特馬上解釋稱:“我都說習慣了,其實我好多次提醒自己別說錯了,但我還是會說錯,我又說錯了,待會可能還會說順嘴呢。” 阿貝爾則稱,被當做芒格將是“一種莫大的榮幸”。

有分析指出,這一時刻突顯了巴菲特與芒格之間的牢固友誼。有現場參會的網友稱,這是年會最激動人心的時刻之一。

有網友擺出現場售賣的巴菲特與芒格玩偶,就好像他們曾經攜手並肩坐在股東大會主席台上一樣,並引用美國說唱歌手吹牛老爹(Puff Daddy)在《我會想念你》(I'll be missing you )一曲中的歌詞:

“仿佛就在昨天,我們一起縱情搖滾,我係緊音軌,你鎖定節奏,生活並不總是與從前一樣,言語無法表達出你對我的意義,即使你走了,我們仍一起組隊。”

還有網友發布了一張現場圖片:巴菲特和芒格共同出現在短片中,但現實中的主席台上隻有巴菲特一個人。

伯克希爾史上首次公開年會秘密短片,隻為了緬懷芒格

在問答環節之前,本次年會發布短片詳細介紹了芒格的生平。

包括他在美國內布拉斯加州奧馬哈市的生活。芒格與巴菲特都在那裏出生和長大,距離伯克希爾的年會舉辦地僅有兩英裏遠,芒格甚至為巴菲特家族雜貨店打過工,不過當時他並不認識巴菲特。

短片還展示了芒格參加過的股東大會曆史影像,以及曆年來著名的犀利點評合集。

例如,在2015年的一次會議上,他曾說:“如果人們不經常犯錯,我和巴菲特就不會這麽富有。”旁邊的巴菲特後悔沒有堵住芒格的嘴。

又比如,影片展示芒格在早年某次股東大會上說:“如果我在快要死的時候還能保持樂觀,那麽你們其他人肯定可以應對一點通貨膨脹。”

還有一段影像顯示芒格說:“在現實生活中做出決定的正確方法是基於你的機會成本。當你結婚時,必須選擇最適合你的。你的餘生也是同樣的方式(做決策)。 ”

有分析稱,巴菲特在這部感人至深且有點幽默的電影中,向他的長期朋友和商業夥伴致敬,重申芒格是“伯克希爾的建築師”,是“提供藍圖的天才”,而巴菲特自己隻是“幹活的承包商”。

巴菲特讚揚芒格絕對誠實,推薦所有人都去買最新版《窮查理寶典》

在整場問答環節,巴菲特總是會不由自主地“Cue到”芒格。

當被問及“如何找到生活中的真偶像/人生導師,如何好好交友等經驗”時,巴菲特表示,一個合適的人生偶像是很重要的,他和芒格都有:“很重要的是有人持續愛你,就算你打破了一些規則,我和芒格都被這麽愛過。你需要有個合適的英雄去崇拜,取決於你想成為什麽樣的人,如果你選擇的偶像正確就進入了正軌,不光說的是掙錢方麵,而是說整個人生。”

當評價伯克希爾的投資策略時,巴菲特稱,比亞迪和好市多(Costco)是芒格認為伯克希爾最需要購買的兩隻股票,巴菲特坦言可惜對芒格的傾聽還不夠。

巴菲特還隨時隨地讚賞芒格,稱芒格是“真正的誠實”(truly honest),是值得信賴的商業夥伴: “我也完全信任我的孩子和妻子,但這並不意味著我會問他們買什麽股票。在管理資金方麵,幾十年來,世界上沒有人比查理更適合交談。”

巴菲特稱,芒格的“絕對誠實”是他成為巴菲特重要夥伴的原因之一。這種誠實貫穿於芒格的工作和個人生活:“當你在生活中遇到這樣的事情時,你就會珍惜這種人,並忘記其他的人。”

還有股東發現,沒有芒格在場“插科打諢”說俏皮話,巴菲特的發言似乎更加專注於圍繞伯克希爾的業務來進行,有種“公事公辦”的味道。

而在問答環節結束時,巴菲特還不忘營銷芒格的“遺產”,推薦大家都去買《窮查理寶典》。

巴菲特稱,為了緬懷芒格,最新版《窮查理寶典》將是今年伯克希爾股東大會現場唯一出售的書,周五已售出約2400冊。巴菲特稱,往年的年會通常會現場出售25種書。

巴菲特對問答環節的結束語似乎也在呼應芒格的不在場,他戲稱,“希望你們明年也來,希望我明年也參加。”此前,巴菲特稱,他不認為自己應該再簽下四年的伯克希爾掌舵人工作合約了。

Full recap of Warren Buffett’s comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: ‘I hope I come next year’
 

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett will preside over the company’s annual meeting. Track all of the day’s news and analysis here.

Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting Saturday had some somber moments as Warren Buffett reflected on the passing of his longtime partner Charlie Munger last year and wrestled with the possibility of his own mortality.

“I know a little about actuarial tables,” he joked at one moment.

However, he reassured investors that a plan was in place and revealed for the first time that Greg Abel, his successor, would be making the call on investing decisions.

He also fielded numerous questions from Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Notably, Buffett explained why Berkshire sold off some of its Apple stock and he revealed a losing bet on Paramount. The Berkshire chairman and CEO also reflected on developments in the quickly evolving field of artificial intelligence and praised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s work steering the economy.

Here are some of the highlights:

Buffett ends Q&A: ‘I hope I come next year’

Warren Buffett: 'If you're lucky in life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky too'
WATCH NOW
VIDEO02:16
Warren Buffett: ‘If you’re lucky in life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky too’
 

Warren Buffett wrapped up the Q&A portion of the annual meeting with a cheeky farewell remark.

“I not only hope you come next year. I hope I come next year,” he said, laughing.

The crowd once again gave the 93-year-old investing legend a standing ovation and a round of applause.

Yun Li

Buffett praises Powell

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington on March 20, 2024.

 
Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Warren Buffett praised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for his work steering the economy over the past few years.

At Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting, Buffett called Powell a “very wise man.” However, he noted the central bank needs help from lawmakers to rein in the growing U.S. deficit.

Powell “doesn’t control fiscal policy, and every now and then he sends out a disguised plea … because that’s where the trouble will be, if we have it,” Buffett said.

Fred Imbert

 

Lawsuits against Berkshire-owned PacifiCorp are ‘unfounded,’ Greg Abel says

'A lot to be done' with improving BNSF Railway operations, says Berkshire's Greg Abel
WATCH NOW
VIDEO05:36
‘A lot to be done’ with improving BNSF Railway operations, says Berkshire’s Greg Abel
 

Berkshire Hathaway will continue to fight lawsuits brought against electric power company PacifiCorp, more than 90% of which is owned by the Buffett-owned company.

“When I think of PacifiCorp, we’re in a place where, first and foremost, all that litigation will be challenged because the basis for it, at least we believe, there are places where it’s unfounded,” said Greg Abel, who is considered to be Warren Buffett’s successor and the future chief executive officer of the company. “And we’ll continue to challenge it.”

PacifiCorp is facing $30 billion in new claims made last month from 1,000 plaintiffs who blame the company for causing the 2020 Labor Day wildfires in Oregon. PacifiCorp has already paid or owes $825 million in claims due to other wildfire-related lawsuits, Reuters reported.

“The challenge we do have is, within PacifiCorp, as we go through both the litigation and through continuing to operate that entity, it generates a certain amount of capital and profits that will remain in that entity and be reinvested back into that business,” Abel said during the Saturday meeting, adding that both legislative and regulatory reforms are needed across the PacifiCorp states if Berkshire is going to make incremental capital contributions into the business.

“As Warren said, we don’t want to throw good capital after bad capital ... so we’ll be very disciplined there,” Abel said.

Pia Singh

 

Buffett says all of Berkshire’s Paramount holding has been sold

Warren Buffett says Berkshire sold its entire Paramount stake and 'lost quite a bit of money'
WATCH NOW
VIDEO01:27
Warren Buffett says Berkshire sold its entire Paramount stake and ‘lost quite a bit of money’
 

Warren Buffett said the entire Paramount Global stake has been sold at a loss.

“It was 100% my decision, and we’ve sold it all and we lost quite a bit of money,” he said.

Buffett added that the experience has made him think more deeply about what activities people prioritize in their free time.

Berkshire Hathaway owned 63.3 million shares of Paramount as of the end of 2023, after cutting the position by about a third in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the latest filings.

— Alex Harring

 

‘We missed a lot of things,’ Buffett says

Warren Buffett asserted on Saturday that he and Charlie Munger certainly missed investing opportunities over the years, but only regretted a select few.

“We missed a lot of things, and what we really regretted was missing something that turned out to be very big, we never worried about something that we didn’t understand,” Buffett said.

“Why should we be able to predict the future of every business any more than we can predict what wheat yields are likely to be in the next year?” he added.

— Brian Evans

 
 

Buffett says capital allocation decisions will eventually fall to Greg Abel

Warren Buffett says Greg Abel will make Berkshire Hathaway investing decisions when he's gone
WATCH NOW
VIDEO09:36
Warren Buffett says Greg Abel will make Berkshire Hathaway investing decisions when he’s gone
 

Berkshire Hathaway’s investing decisions, including those involving the stock portfolio, will fall to Greg Abel, Buffett’s planned successor, according to the “Oracle of Omaha.”

“I think the responsibility ought to be entirely with Greg,” Buffett said. “The responsibility has been with me, and I farmed out some of it, and I used to think differently about how that would be handled, but I think the responsibility should be that of the CEO.”

“Whatever that CEO decides may be helpful in effectuating that responsibility, that’s up to him or her to decide at the time that they’re running money. ... I would say my thinking has developed to some extent as the sums have grown so large at Berkshire,” he added. “We don’t want to try and have 200 people around that are managing $1 billion each, it just doesn’t work.”

While Buffett has made clear that Abel, vice chairman of non-insurance operations, would be taking over the CEO job, there were still questions about who would control Berkshire’s public stock portfolio.

Buffett has garnered a huge following by racking up huge returns through investments in the likes of Coca-Cola and Apple.

Berkshire investing managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, both former hedge fund managers, have helped Buffett manage a small portion of the stock portfolio for about the last decade.

— Brian Evans, John Melloy

 

Why Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay a dividend

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway doesn’t pay a dividend, even as it boasts a cash hoard of tens of billions of dollars. A company can use dividends to reward shareholders by distributing a portion of its earnings.

But the Oracle of Omaha expects that he can use his capital in more profitable ways. In fact, Buffett has said he would use a buyback program to return capital to shareholders, instead of dividends, if he felt he couldn’t use his capital efficiently.

“Dividends have the implied promise that you keep paying them forever and not decrease them,” Buffett said in a 2018 interview with CNBC, adding, “We would probably lean toward repurchase,” between the two.

— Sarah Min, Yun Li

 

Buffett honors Carol Loomis, longtime editor of his annual shareholder letters

Warren Buffett took a few moments during his morning session to honor Carol Loomis, a longtime financial journalist who edited Buffett’s revered annual shareholder letters for years.

“Carol is the best business writer ... nobody came close to her, and she started from scratch,” Buffett said about Loomis, asking the crowd to give a round of applause to her. “In 1977, I asked her to edit my report and she had turned out to be as good an editor as she was a writer. And all the way through this year, including this year, Carol has edited the Berkshire report.”

Loomis was a former senior editor-at-large of Fortune magazine, who also chronicled the start of the hedge fund industry.

— Pia Singh

 

Real estate agents remain key following settlements, Abel says

Real estate agents will continue to pay a key role despite settlements, says Berkshire's Greg Abel
WATCH NOW
VIDEO05:51
Real estate agents will continue to pay a key role despite settlements, says Berkshire’s Greg Abel
 

Real estate agents will continue to play a key role in the home-buying process, even after major settlements, according to Greg Abel.

The National Association of Realtors said in March it would end policies that set agent commissions and pay more than $400 million in compensation to home sellers across the U.S. Multiple lawsuits against the trade group had alleged that the rules tied to listings on the NAR-affiliated Multiple Listing Services elevated commission rates, according to the Associated Press.

In late April, Berkshire’s HomeServices of America said it would pay $250 million to settle lawsuits that alleged commissions were unnecessarily high. That’s the biggest sum paid by any individual brokerage so far, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“There’s no question the industry will go through some transitions because of that settlement,” said Abel, Buffett’s successor. But, “the real estate agent is still an important part of these transactions. It’s the one time in our lives where we make these massive investments, and having that counsel and guidance is critical.”

With the broader NAR settlement, Abel said essentially all players in the space were “swept up.”

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett said he’s encouraged the expansion of its real estate brokerage business, calling it “fundamental.” However, he acknowledged being surprised by the legal decision.

— Alex Harring

 

Berkshire shareholders meeting breaks for lunch

Warren Buffett has ended the morning question-and-answer session at Berkshire’s annual meeting to break for lunch.

CNBC will continue programing throughout the break.

—Christina Cheddar Berk

 

Buffett on his cash hoard: ‘We only swing at pitches we like’

Buffett on Berkshire's $188 billion cash pile: 'We only swing at pitches we like'
WATCH NOW
VIDEO02:31
Buffett on Berkshire’s $188 billion cash pile: ‘We only swing at pitches we like’
 

Buffett is making good returns by putting his mountain of cash in Treasury bills yielding north of 5.4%.

“We only swing at pitches we like,” Buffett said when asked about why he hasn’t used his cash pile to make new investments. “We don’t use it now at 5.4% but we wouldn’t use it if it was at 1%. Don’t tell the Federal Reserve,” he said jokingly.

Berkshire’s cash reached a record high of $188.99 billion, up from $167.6 billion in the fourth quarter. Buffett previously revealed that he’s been buying 3- and 6-month Treasury bills every Monday.

— Yun Li

 

Buffett touches on succession plan, says investors ‘don’t have too long to wait’

Buffett briefly touched on Berkshire Hathaway’s future without him at the helm, and noted that his advanced age is top of mind despite his continuing to feel up to the job.

“We’ll see how the next management plays the game out at Berkshire, [but] fortunately you don’t have too long to wait on that. I feel fine, but I know a little about actuarial tables,” Buffett said.

“I shouldn’t be taking on any four-year employment contracts like several people are doing in this world at an age when you can’t be quite that sure where you’re going to be in four years,” he added.

Buffett will turn 94 in August, and has already named Vice Chairman of Non-Insurance Operations Greg Abel, who was sitting at his side Saturday, as the Berkshire CEO successor. But investors wonder if Berkshire shares would trade at the same valuation over the long-term without Buffett at the helm making the major investing decisions.

— Brian Evans

 

Berkshire is watching renewable energy, but thinks more time is required

Warren Buffett: Solar will never be the only source of electricity
WATCH NOW
VIDEO07:28
Warren Buffett: Solar will never be the only source of electricity
 

Warren Buffett said renewable energy is of interest, but it needs time to be developed.

“There are certain things that just take a certain amount of time,” the “Oracle of Omaha” said. “My daughter hates it when I use this example, but it’s really true that you can’t create a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.”

But Buffett also said solar will likely never be the only electricity source.

Greg Abel, chair of Berkshire’s energy business, also said reliability and affordability are important factors to keep in mind.

— Alex Harring

 

Buffett teases a possible Canada investment

Warren Buffett: Don't feel uncomfortable in any way putting our money into Canada
WATCH NOW
VIDEO04:42
Warren Buffett: Don’t feel uncomfortable in any way putting our money into Canada
 

Warren Buffett hinted that the conglomerate was evaluating a possible investment opportunity north of the border.

“We do not feel uncomfortable in any way shape or form putting our money into Canada. In fact, we’re actually looking at one thing now,” said Buffett.

The Berkshire CEO did not reveal what the investment was and whether it was public or private.

Heading into the meeting there’s been a lot of speculation about which investments Berkshire is building. The company has been granted confidential treatment regarding one mystery stake it’s been buying for the last three quarters in the financial sector.

—John Melloy

 

Buffett found Munger to be truly honest

Buffett on his friendship with Munger: You cherish those people and you forget about the rest
WATCH NOW
VIDEO03:42
Buffett on his friendship with Munger: You cherish those people and you forget about the rest
 

Warren Buffett said Charlie Munger was a trusted business partner, but he’s also been able to look elsewhere for personal support.

“I trust my children and my wife totally,” Buffett said. “But that doesn’t mean I ask them what stocks to buy.”

“In terms of managing money, there wasn’t anybody better in the world to talk to for many, many decades than Charlie,” he said. “That doesn’t mean I didn’t talk to other people.”

Still, “if I didn’t think I could do it myself, I wouldn’t have done it,” he said of business decision making. “So, to some extent, I talk to myself on investments.”

Buffett called Munger unfailingly honest, which is part of why he became a key companion. That applied to both his work and personal life, Buffett added.

“When you get that in your life, you cherish those people and you sort of forget about the rest,” he said.

— Alex Harring

 

Buffett says AI scamming could be next big ‘growth industry,’ likens technology to nuclear weapons

Warren Buffett says AI scamming will be the next big 'growth industry'
WATCH NOW
VIDEO01:29
Warren Buffett says AI scamming will be the next big ‘growth industry’
 

Warren Buffett said that artificial intelligence scamming could be the next big “growth industry,” likening the technology to nuclear weapons in its potential for great change.

The “Oracle of Omaha” said he doesn’t “know anything” about AI, but recounted a recent encounter with an AI-generated image of himself on screen that made him nervous about the technology.

“When you think about the potential for scamming people, if you can reproduce images that I can’t even tell, that say, ‘I need money,’ as your daughter, ‘I just had a car crash, I need $50,000 wired.’ I mean, scamming has always been part of the American scene, but this would make me, if I was interested in investing in scamming, it’s going to be the growth industry of all time,” he told a crowd of investors at Berkshire’s annual meeting.

“I said we let the genie out of the bottle when we developed nuclear weapons and that genie has been doing some terrible things lately, and the power of that genie is what, you know, scares the hell out of me,” he added. “And I don’t know any way to get the genie back in the bottle, and AI is somewhat similar.”

— Sarah Min

 

Geico is ‘still playing catch-up’ with data analytics compared with its peers in the insurance sector, Ajit Jain says

GEICO 'still playing catchup' in data analytics, says Berkshire's Ajit Jain
WATCH NOW
VIDEO05:20
GEICO ‘still playing catchup’ in data analytics, says Berkshire’s Ajit Jain
 

Ajit Jain, Berkshire Hathaway’s vice chairman of insurance operations, is well aware that Geico is lagging behind its peers when it comes to data analytics.

“As Warren has pointed out in the past, one of the drawbacks that Geico is faced with is it hasn’t been doing as good of a job on matching rate with risk and segmenting and pricing product based on the risk characteristics. … Geico hasn’t been that good at managing risk,” Jain told Berkshire investors.

“Technology is something that is unfortunately been a bottleneck,” he said, adding that Geico was “still playing catch-up.”

“But then again, we are making progress. … Yes, I recognize we are still behind, we are taking steps to bridge the gap and certainly by the end of 2025, we should be along with the best of players when it comes to data analytics,” he said.

— Brian Evans

 

Buffett accidentally refers to Greg Abel as Charlie Munger

Warren Buffett accidentally refers to Greg Abel as Charlie Munger during 2024 Berkshire meeting
WATCH NOW
VIDEO01:01
Warren Buffett accidentally refers to Greg Abel as Charlie Munger during 2024 Berkshire meeting
 

In a slip-up, Buffett referred to Greg Abel, chair of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, as the late Charlie Munger.

“I’m so used to that,” Buffett said after the mix up.

The moment underscores the strength of Buffett’s relationship with Munger, who was viewed as a close friend and key business partner leading up to his death late last year.

Buffett admitted he would probably “slip again.”

“It’s a great honor,” said Abel, who is Buffett’s heir apparent, of being mistaken for Munger.

— Alex Harring

 
 

Buffett explains why Berkshire reduced its big Apple stake

Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire reduced its big Apple stake
WATCH NOW
VIDEO09:35
Warren Buffett explains why Berkshire reduced its big Apple stake
 

When asked why Berkshire trimmed its Apple position, Buffett suggested it was for tax reasons following sizable gains on the investment and not any judgement of his long-term view of the stock.

He also suggested it could be tied to his view that tax rates may possibly be going higher to fund a ballooning U.S. fiscal deficit.

“It doesn’t bother me in the least to write that check — and I would really hope with all that America’s done for all of you, it shouldn’t bother you that we do it —and if I’m doing it at 21% this year and we’re doing it a little higher percentage later on, I don’t think you’ll actually mind the fact that we sold a little Apple this year,” Buffett said.

[ 打印 ]
閱讀 ()評論 (0)
評論
目前還沒有任何評論
登錄後才可評論.