Ray Dalio 美國政治分歧內戰可能性40%

雷·達利奧表示，美國內戰的風險高達 40%——並認為泰勒·斯威夫特可能是一位好總統

https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-taylor-swift-civil-war-presidential-election-inequality-politics-2024-5

Theron Mohamed 2024 年 5 月 17 日

雷·達利奧認為，美國政治分歧升級為內戰的可能性高達 40%。

這位對衝基金億萬富翁曾多次警告美國債務以及內外衝突。達利奧半開玩笑地支持泰勒·斯威夫特擔任總統，稱她有能力團結人民。

雷·達利奧警告說，美國內戰的可能性高達 40%——並表示如果泰勒·斯威夫特競選總統，他可能會支持她。

“我們現在正處於邊緣，”他在最近的一次采訪中告訴《金融時報》，這提出了“更加動蕩的時代”的可能性。

達利歐是全球最大對衝基金橋水基金的億萬富翁創始人，也是《應對不斷變化的世界秩序的原則：國家成功和失敗的原因》一書的作者。

他認為內戰的可能性為 35% 至 40%，並補充說內戰不一定是一場槍戰。

達利歐是橋水基金三位聯席首席投資者的官方導師，多年來一直在對美國的政治兩極分化和經濟動蕩發出警告。

這位金融曆史學家一再強調，極端的政府債務水平、巨大的貧富差距、不斷加劇的內部分歧和激烈的外部衝突可能為戰爭、革命和新世界秩序鋪平道路。

2020 年末，他警告說，美國“正在經曆一種內戰”，因為大量人出於政治和稅收等原因遷徙各州。

雷·達利奧表示，他持有黃金是為了對衝債務和通脹危機

他哀歎，2021 年初，美國處於“糟糕的財政狀況和嚴重的分裂狀態”。

在 10 月以色列與哈馬斯衝突爆發後，他宣布美國和中國爆發世界大戰的風險已從 35% 飆升至約 50%。

不再有仇恨

達利奧告訴英國《金融時報》，在參加了一場斯威夫特演唱會後，他相信這位流行歌星可能是解決美國分裂問題的辦法。

“我看到她如何把各種各樣的人——以及許多國籍的人——聚集在一起，”他說。“我這麽說部分是開玩笑，但如果她競選總統並聽取優秀顧問的意見，我會考慮支持她。”

達利奧在 3 月發布了一張斯威夫特“時代之旅”演唱會的自拍照，表明自己是斯威夫特粉絲。

他在後續帖子中澄清說，他隻是開玩笑說支持她。但他認真地表示，“她比任何一位總統候選人都能更好地團結人民。”

即使達利歐隻是在開玩笑地談論 T-Swift 擔任總統，但他清楚地認識到，在世界處於緊張狀態、人們似乎比以往任何時候都更加疏遠的時候，需要一位團結的領導人。

Elite investor Ray Dalio says risk of US civil war is up to 40% — and thinks Taylor Swift could be a good president

https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-taylor-swift-civil-war-presidential-election-inequality-politics-2024-5

Theron Mohamed  May 17, 2024

Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates. Reuters / Ruben Sprich

• Ray Dalio sees up to a 40% chance that political division in the US escalates into civil war.
• The hedge fund billionaire has repeatedly warned about US debt and internal and external conflicts.
• Dalio half-jokingly endorsed Taylor Swift for president, citing her ability to unite people.

Ray Dalio warned the probability of a US civil war is as high as 40% — and said he might back Taylor Swift if she ran for president.

"We are now on the brink," he told the Financial Times in a recent interview, raising the prospect of "much more turbulent times."

Dalio is the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, and the author of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail."

He pegged the chances of a civil war at 35% to 40%, adding that it may not necessarily be a shooting war.

Dalio, the official mentor to Bridgewater's three co-chief investors, has been sounding the alarm on political polarization and economic upheaval in the US for years.

The financial historian has repeatedly underscored that extreme levels of government debt, massive wealth inequality, rising internal divisions, and raging external conflicts can pave the way for war, revolution, and a new world order.

In late 2020, he cautioned the US was "seeing a form of civil war" as masses of people moved states for reasons ranging from politics to taxes.

Ray Dalio says he's owning gold to hedge debt, inflation crisis

He bemoaned that America was in a "terrible financial state and terribly divided" in early 2021.

After the Israel-Hamas conflict ignited in October, he declared the risk of a world war involving the US and China had surged from 35% to about 50%.

No more bad blood

Dalio told the FT that after attending a Swift concert, he believed the pop star might be the solution to American division.

"I saw how she brought people of all sorts — and many nationalities — together," he said. "I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I'd consider supporting her."

Dalio revealed himself to be a Swiftie when he posted a selfie from one of the singer's "Eras Tour" concerts in March.

He clarified in a follow-up post that he was joking about endorsing her. But he was serious that "she can bring people together a lot better than either of the presidential candidates."

Even if Dalio was just having fun with his talk of a T-Swift presidency, he clearly recognizes the need for a unifying leader at a time when the world is on edge and people seem further apart than ever.