風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
黑天鵝作者：美國正麵臨債務膨脹的「死亡螺旋」
彭博資訊報導，他在29日晚間在避險基金Universa Investments的一個活動上說，「（美國）國會害怕承擔做正確事情的後果，隻要他們繼續延長舉債上限並達成協議，最終將看到債務螺旋上升，就像死亡螺旋（death spiral）一樣。」
塔雷伯將不斷膨脹的債務負擔形容成是「白天鵝」，顯然會對市場構成風險，有別於可能沒什麽預警就發生的「黑天鵝」事件。
雖然他沒有詳述市場可能遭遇的後果，但他認為，除了債務膨脹之外，美國經濟比前幾年更容易受衝擊也是「白天鵝」事件。塔雷伯表示，因為全球化使世界各地區的聯係比過往更加緊密，單一地區的問題可能波及全球。
當被問及美國經濟的「螺旋」最終將如何發展時，塔雷伯說，「我們需要外部的一些東西出現，可能是某種奇跡。」「這讓我對西方世界的整個政治體係感到有點悲觀」。
擔心美國債務問題的可不止塔雷伯一人。本月稍早，美國前財長魯賓（Robert Rubin）稱聯邦赤字使美國經濟陷入糟糕境地；貝萊德副董事長席德布蘭德（Philipp Hildebrand）也警告，任何債務違約都可能威脅到美元表現。
《黑天鵝》作者納西姆·塔勒布表示，美國正走向債務“死亡螺旋”
詹妮弗·索爾 2024 年 1 月 30 日
《黑天鵝》作者納西姆·塔勒布表示，如果政客們不控製支出，美國將陷入債務“死亡螺旋"，“債務螺旋就像死亡螺旋，”塔勒布在周一的一次活動中表示。
《黑天鵝》作者納西姆·塔勒布表示，由於債務不斷增加以及政客無力應對這一問題，美國正麵臨“死亡螺旋”。
據彭博社報道，正確預測了 2008 年金融危機的 Universa Investments 顧問對美國債務狀況發出了可怕的警告，今年年初聯邦債務餘額首次突破 34 萬億美元。
塔勒布本周在Universa Investments舉辦的一次活動中表示，隻要國會保持快速支出步伐，這些債務就會繼續堆積，這可能給美國經濟帶來災難性後果。
塔勒布表示，事實上，美國債務上升是一隻“白天鵝”，與“黑天鵝”事件相比，這種事件對市場構成了明顯的風險，“黑天鵝”事件可能在沒有太多預警的情況下發生。 塔勒布表示，盡管美國的債務負擔早在成為真正問題之前就已向專家通報過，但與前幾年相比，美國的債務負擔正使經濟更容易受到衝擊。
“隻要國會繼續延長債務上限並進行交易，因為他們害怕做正確事情的後果，這就是政治體係的政治結構，最終就會出現債務螺旋式上升。” 據彭博社報道，塔勒布周一在 Universa Investments 的一次活動上表示。 “債務螺旋就像死亡螺旋，”他補充道。
當被問及衝擊將如何發揮時，塔勒布表示，這種死亡螺旋需要“從外部引入一些東西，或者可能是某種奇跡”，並補充說，這種情況讓他對西方的政治體係更加悲觀 。
一段時間以來，專家們對美國過快的舉債步伐敲響了警鍾，但最近在美聯儲開始於2022年大舉加息後，他們的擔憂更加強烈。聯邦基金利率已上調至5.25%-5.5，為曆史最高水平。 自 2001 年以來，借貸成本不斷上升。這意味著償債成本也有所上升，美國為政府融資而發行的債券要支付更多利息。
投資者預計美聯儲今年將降息，但由於央行官員密切關注通脹，利率仍可能在較長時間內保持在較高水平。 高盛此前預測，這可能有助於到 2025 年將美國債務成本推至新高。
專家表示，借貸本質上會引發通貨膨脹，這意味著美國的高債務負擔可能會與美聯儲的通脹鬥爭發生“衝突”。 華爾街一些最悲觀的評論員警告稱，存在滯脹債務危機的風險，這是一種最壞的情況，即高債務和高通脹導致經濟增長停滯。
由於立法者繼續在支出問題上爭論不休，國會尚未批準 10 月份開始的財年預算。 國會領導人上周批準了另一項推遲政府關門的法案，要求政策製定者在 3 月 1 日之前製定預算細節。
'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb says the US is heading for a debt 'death spiral'
Jennifer Sor Jan 30, 2024
- The US is headed for a debt "death spiral" if politicians don't rein in spending, Nassim Taleb said.
- "The Black Swan" author said debt troubles will continue if Congress can't
- "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," Taleb said at an event on Monday.
Per Bloomberg, the Universa Investments advisor who correctly called the 2008 financial crash cast a dire warning about the US debt situation, which has seen the federal debt balance notch $34 trillion for the first time ever to start the year.
As long as Congress keeps up its rapid pace of spending, those debts are going to continue to pile up, which could have disastrous consequences for the US economy, Taleb said this week at an event held by Universa Investments.
In fact, rising debt in the US is a "white swan," Taleb said, and is an event that poses an obvious risk to markets versus a "black swan" event, which can occur without much warning. Despite being broadcast to experts well before it becomes a true problem, the US debt load is making the economy more vulnerable to shocks than it has been in previous years, Taleb said.
"So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they're afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that's the political structure of the political system, eventually you're going to have a debt spiral," Taleb said at an event for Universa Investments on Monday, per Bloomberg's report. "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," he added.
That death spiral would necessitate "something to come in from the outside, or maybe some kind of miracle," Taleb said, when asked how the shock would play out, adding that the situation has made him more pessimistic about the political system in the West.
Experts have been sounding the alarm on the US's rapid pace of borrowing for a while, but have voiced louder concerns recently after the Fed began to aggressively raise interest rates in 2022. The Fed funds rate has been raised to 5.25%-5.5, the highest cost of borrowing since 2001. That means that debt service costs have also risen, and the US is paying more interest on the bonds it's issuing to finance the government.
Investors are anticipating the Fed to cut rates this year, but interest rates are still likely to stay higher-for-longer as central bankers keep an eye on inflation. That could help push US debt costs to a new record by 2025, Goldman Sachs previously predicted.
Borrowing is inherently inflationary, experts say, meaning the US's high debt load could "collide" with the Fed's inflation fight. Some of Wall Street's most bearish commentators are warning of the risk of a stagflationary debt-crisis, a worst-case scenario where high debt and high inflation result in stagnant economic growth.
Congress has yet to approve a budget for the fiscal year that began in October as lawmakers continue to spar over spending. Congressional leaders last week approved another bill to delay a government shutdown, giving policymakers until March 1 to work out details on the budget.
