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哥倫比亞大學經濟學家：2023年世界可以信賴中國經濟的強勁增長
https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/28239b48x54zs8rthm7lgl533s2aac
環球時報2023年3月13日
編者注：
麵對持續的地緣政治衝突和政治幹擾正常經貿合作帶來的外部巨大不確定性，中國將今年經濟增長目標定為5%。 這一溫和的目標反映了中國對實現經濟穩定增長、推動轉型、實現高質量發展的信心。 美國錯誤政策可能對全球經濟造成更嚴重影響，今年中國經濟能否實現強勁複蘇？ 中國應如何繼續發揮世界經濟穩定力量和貢獻者的重要作用？ 美國著名經濟學家、哥倫比亞大學教授傑弗裏·薩克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）在接受環球時報記者王毅采訪時，分享了他對這些話題的看法。
GT：2023年中國經濟複蘇前景如何？ 會出現V型複蘇嗎？
薩克斯：基於5G、綠色能源和其他核心基礎設施的持續建設，中國經濟有望實現強勁增長。 中國也將成為東南亞、非洲和拉丁美洲技術和基礎設施的主要出口國。 我認為我們可以指望強勁的增長。
環球時報：多年來，西方對中國經濟的看法在兩個極端之間交替：“中國崩潰論”或“中國威脅論”。 彭博社最近表示，中國經濟複蘇可能是“全球通脹的下一個重大威脅”。 您對這些敘述有何看法？
薩克斯：中國既不會崩潰，也不會威脅世界經濟。 這些都是美國評論人士的過激反應。
GT：2023年全球經濟低迷，麵臨的主要挑戰是什麽？ 世界主要經濟體應如何共同應對這些挑戰？ 如何避免將全球經濟推向更加不穩定的境地？
薩克斯：全球複蘇與繁榮的關鍵是和平。 不幸的是，美國非但沒有解決地緣政治緊張局勢，反而加劇了這些緊張局勢。 美國故意試圖將世界經濟劃分為美國主導的部分和中國主導的部分。 這是危險且具有破壞性的，包括對美國本身。 如果美國同意停止嚐試將北約擴大到烏克蘭和格魯吉亞，烏克蘭戰爭可能會迅速結束。 北約擴張的企圖是美俄衝突的根本原因。
環球時報：在美國推動貿易與科技“脫鉤”的背景下，中國經濟在解決通脹、供應鏈中斷等全球經濟問題中發揮著怎樣的作用？
薩克斯：中國應該注重與整個發展中國家保持良好的經濟關係，並希望歐洲不要盲目追隨美國的新保守主義政策，煽動對華衝突。
環球時報：您如何看待中國經濟轉型的進展以及中國推動高質量發展的努力？ “一帶一路”倡議是否日益成為一項基於清潔能源、5G和其他先進技術的可持續發展計劃？
薩克斯：中國正走在良好的道路上，但需要加快向綠色、數字化發展轉型。 這是因為氣候危機正在全球範圍內迅速惡化。 未來幾年內，我們的氣溫可能會比工業化前升高 1.4 攝氏度。 包括對中國在內的幹擾將是非常大的。 幸運的是，中國可以幫助在光伏、先進數字技術、綠色氫、電動汽車、電池存儲、綠色鋼鐵（使用氫而不是焦煤）和其他關鍵技術方麵引領世界。
環球時報：您關注2022年10月召開的中國共產黨第二十次全國代表大會嗎？ 中國共產黨在中國發展中發揮什麽作用？ 中國政策的一致性和中國的穩定對世界意味著什麽？
薩克斯：中國追求“共同繁榮”、基於中國古代倫理的21世紀解決方案、全球和諧與可持續發展，都是中國政策框架的重要組成部分。 我支持所有這些。 我特別希望中國繼續推行綠色“一帶一路”，幫助發展中國家建設和資助麵向21世紀的現代化、綠色、數字基礎設施。
GT：您認為另一場冷戰是可以避免的嗎？ 從短期和中長期來看，您如何看待美國對華遏製戰略給世界帶來的後果？
薩克斯：美國的政策完全是錯誤的，而且是基於對曆史的無知。 美國政客認為，盡管美國人口隻占世界人口的4%，但美國有權利領導世界。 美國政客對世界曆史、地理或世界其他地區的利益知之甚少。
這一切都非常悲傷和危險，因為它引發了戰爭的可能性。 美國政治和大眾媒體往往過於簡單化複雜的問題，並提出嚴重偏見和自私的觀點。 最重要的是，我們需要對話、相互理解、談判、裁軍和緩解緊張局勢。
World can count on robust growth of China’s economy in 2023: economist at Columbia University
https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/28239b48x54zs8rthm7lgl533s2aac
Editor's Note:
In the face of great external uncertainty caused by continued geopolitical conflicts and political interference in normal economic and trade cooperation, China has set its economic growth target at 5 percent this year. The modest target mirrors China's confidence in achieving steady economic growth while promoting transformation for quality growth. As the US' misguided policy stokes the possibility of more severe impacts on the global economy, will China realize a strong economic recovery this year? How should China continue to play the important role of a stabilizing force and contributor to the global economy? In an interview with the Global Times reporter Wang Yi (GT), Jeffrey Sachs (Sachs), renowned American economist, and professor at Columbia University, shared his views on these topics.
GT: What is China's economic recovery outlook in 2023? Will there be a V-shaped recovery?
Sachs: China can expect robust economic growth based on the continuing build-out of 5G, green energy, and other core infrastructure. China will be a major exporter of technology and infrastructure to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America as well. I think we can count on robust growth.
GT: For years, the Western perception of the Chinese economy has alternated between two extremes: The "China collapse" theory, or the "China threat" theory. Bloomberg said recently that China's economic recovery could be the "next big threat to global inflation." What's your opinion on these narratives?
Sachs: China is neither about to collapse nor threaten the world economy. These are overheated reactions by US commentators.
GT: What are the major challenges to the gloomy global economy in 2023? How should major economies across the world jointly tackle these challenges? How can pushing the global economy toward a more precarious situation be avoided?
Sachs: The key to global recovery and prosperity is peace. Unfortunately, the US is exacerbating geopolitical tensions rather than solving them. The US is deliberately trying to divide the world economy between a US-led component and a China-led component. This is dangerous and destructive, including to the US itself. The war in Ukraine could end quickly if the US agreed to stop trying to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia. That attempt at NATO expansion is the underlying reason for the US-Russia conflict.
GT: Amid the US' push for trade and tech "decoupling," what is the role of China's economy in solving global economic problems, such as inflation and supply chain disruptions?
Sachs: China should focus on maintaining good economic relations with the entire developing world, and hope that Europe doesn't blindly follow the US neoconservative policy of stoking conflict with China.
GT: How do you view the progress of China's economic transformation and China's efforts to promote high-quality development? Is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) increasingly becoming a sustainable development plan based on clean energy, 5G, and other advanced technologies?
Sachs: China is on a good course, but needs to accelerate the transformation of green, digital development. This is because the climate crisis is worsening globally very rapidly. We will likely reach the 1.4C warming above pre-industrial temperatures within the next few years. The disruptions, including to China, will be very large. Fortunately, China can help lead the world in photovoltaics, advanced digital technologies, green hydrogen, electric vehicles, battery storage, green steel (using hydrogen rather than coking coal), and other pivotal technologies.
GT: Did you follow the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in October 2022? What is the role of the CPC in China's development? What does the consistency of China's policy as well as China's stability mean for the world?
Sachs: China's pursuit of "common prosperity," 21st-century solutions grounded in ancient Chinese ethics, and global harmony and sustainable development, are all notable parts of China's policy framework. I support all of these. I especially hope that China will continue with a Green BRI to help developing countries build and finance modern, green, digital infrastructure for the 21st century.
GT: Do you think another Cold War is avoidable? In the short and medium-to-long term, how do you see the consequences of the US containment strategy against China to the world?
Sachs: The US policy is completely misguided, and based on ignorance of history. American politicians believe that it is America's right to lead the world, even though the US represents a mere 4 percent of the world population. American politicians know very little about world history, geography, or the interests of other parts of the world. It's all very sad and dangerous, as it stokes the possibility of war. American politics and mass media tend to vastly oversimplify complex issues, and to present heavily biased and self-serving views. Most of all, we need dialogue, mutual understanding, negotiation, disarmament, and reduction of tensions.
