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跟美債上限相比 這個更恐怖

(2023-05-07 16:14:55) 下一個

傳奇投資人德魯肯米勒:跟美債上限相比這更像一部“恐怖電影”

 

2023-05-04 10:48

 

相比於銀行業危機和潛在的商業地產債務危機,對衝基金偶像、億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller)正將注意力轉向房間裏真正的大象:過度的政府支出和美國失控的巨額債務。

 

因為盡管商業房地產危機爆發了,也有結束的一天,但美國32萬億美元的債務(並且每六個月增長1萬億美元)和200萬億美元的表外債務將永遠存在,至少在美國違約或出現惡性通脹之前不會消失。

 

(預計到2053年美國國債占GDP的比重將達到200%)

 

德魯肯米勒曾是華爾街大鱷索羅斯(George Soros)的首席策略師,曾協助索羅斯成功狙擊英鎊。德魯肯米勒與索羅斯一起創造了對衝基金行業最強勁的連勝紀錄之一,然後進入Duquesne Capital Management任職,後來在2010年他將投資者從這家規模120億美元的對衝基金中撤出,並將其轉變為家族辦公室來管理自己的財富。

 

德魯肯米勒周一在一次演講中表示:

“過去十年的不計後果的財政(支出)行為看起來就像一部恐怖電影。”

他還表示他不希望看到美國政府違約,同時強調:

“但老實說,所有關注債務上限而非未來財政問題的人,就像坐在聖莫尼卡的海灘上,擔心30英尺高的海浪會不會破壞碼頭,而對10英裏外200英尺高的海嘯視而不見。”

 

據外媒報道,德魯肯米勒的言論與其10年前在訪問14所大學校園時的言論類似,當時他曾鼓勵學生們關注不斷膨脹的聯邦赤字,他相信這將使子孫後代破產。

 

他當時說,不計後果的支出引發的經濟風暴可能會使2008年的經濟陣痛相形見絀。他在周一表示,如今的形勢“看起來比我10年前想象的要糟糕得多”。

 

德魯肯米勒還呼應了一個長期存在的擔憂,他表示,美國麵臨的最大問題是失控的福利,如社會保障、醫療保險和醫療補助等,如果今天不削減,未來將不得不狂砍福利。同時他還稱,永遠不要認為這樣做是政治自殺。

 

這位傳奇投資人對拜登政府應對潛在財政缺口的計劃,以及缺乏共和黨對財政約束感到擔憂。他說,根據國會預算辦公室的估計,到2040年對老年人(福利)的支出將達到聯邦稅收收入的100%,其中包括利息支出。

 

更重要的是,目前31萬億美元的美國債務負擔不包括未來的福利支付。如果將未來的福利支出考慮在內,他估計美國的實際債務負擔接近200萬億美元,遠遠超過官方公布的31.4萬億美元的債務上限。

 

德魯肯米勒還對美聯儲的行動提出了質疑。他說,美聯儲過去幾十年的寬鬆貨幣政策導致了金融市場、政府和銀行的魯莽行為。他表示:

 

“不幸的是,由於仍然持有大量政府債務,美聯儲繼續製造一種錯誤的幻覺,即它可以幫助政府解決財政問題。”

 

盡管過去一年加息5個百分點是朝著正確方向邁出的一步,“試圖糾正美聯儲曆史上最大的錯誤”,但德魯肯米勒仍質疑美聯儲堅持這一舉措的決心。他說:

 

“在問題的最初跡象暴露出來後,美聯儲上個月在短短四天內就將他們在縮減資產負債表方麵取得的小進展大部分付諸東流(指美聯儲為銀行提供大量流動性)。美聯儲這種不對稱的反應,也是美國兩黨都缺乏嚴肅的結構性行動的誘因之一。”

德魯肯米勒發表上述言論之際,國會立法者正在提高美國債務上限的問題上陷入僵局,周一,美國財長耶倫警告稱,政府可能最快於6月1日耗盡資金。而在今天淩晨,鮑威爾表示:

“任何人都不應該認為,美聯儲能夠保護經濟,使其免受未能按時支付賬單的潛在短期和長期影響。”

 

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says the debt-ceiling crisis pales in comparison to the 'horror movie' of reckless spending

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/debt-crisis-us-default-government-spending-deficit-outlook-stanley-druckenmiller-2023-5 

Filip De Mott  May 3, 2023

 

Stanley DruckenmillerStanley Druckenmiller. 
 
  • The government's overspending will bankrupt future generations, Stanley Druckenmiller said.
  • It's an issue that needs more attention than the debt-ceiling crisis, he said in a speech Monday.
  • "The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold."
 
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The focus on the looming debt-ceiling crisis is overshadowing a more severe cause for concern: excessive government spending.

 

That's according to billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has been raising the alarm about US deficits for several years. And while he'd like the US to avoid a default, he said more attention should be given to its overspending habits.

 

"The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold," he said in a Monday speech at the University of Southern California, according to Bloomberg

 

In a separate email to Bloomberg, he compared the debt ceiling and the fiscal spending to "worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the pier when you know there's a 200-foot tsunami just 10 miles out."

 

Mirroring his views from a Wall Street Journal piece written in 2013, Druckenmiller repeated his warning that the spending strain will be catastrophic for future generations, with the fallout exceeding the damage seen in 2008.

 

Today's situation "looks much worse than I had imagined 10 years ago," he said on Monday.

To Druckenmiller, spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will have to be cut in the future, if not today. Citing Congressional Budget Office estimates, he said that spending on seniors will account for 100% of tax revenue by 2040. 

 

And after accounting for future entitlement payments, he estimated the actual US debt burden is closer to $200 trillion, far more than the official $31.4 trillion debt limit.

 

Druckenmiller also laid responsibility on the Federal Reserve, as its easy-money policies encouraged market and spending recklessness for over a decade.

And while he views the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening as a good thing, he has little faith that the Fed is devoted to the approach.

 

"At the first signs of trouble, the Fed last month, and in just four days, undid most of the small progress they had made in reducing their balance sheet," he said, alluding to massive liquidity in response to bank failures. "This asymmetric Fed response is what feeds the lack of serious structural action in DC from both sides of the aisle."

 

His comments come as congressional lawmakers are gridlocked over raising the US debt limit, and have until this summer before the nation goes into default.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the government could run out of money and trigger an economic crisis as soon as June 1.

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